Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

Evaluating the effect of a patient education brochure on patients’ expectations and satisfaction with emergency department service

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of a written intervention, in this case a patient information brochure, to improve patient satisfaction during an Emergency Department (ED) visit. For the purpose of measuring the effect of the intervention the ED journey was conceptualised as a series of distinct areas of service comprising waiting time, service by the triage nurse, care from doctors and nurses and information giving Background of study: Research into patient satisfaction has become a widespread activity endorsed by both governments and hospital administrations. The literature on ED patient satisfaction has consistently indicated three primary areas of patient dissatisfaction: waiting time, nursing care and communication. Recent developments in the literature on patient satisfaction studies however have highlighted the relationship between patients. expectations of a service encounter and their consequent assessment of the experience as dissatisfying or satisfying. Disconfirmation theory posits that the degree to which expectations are confirmed will affect subsequent levels of satisfaction. The conceptual framework utilised in this study is Coye.s (2004) model of disconfirmation. Coye while reiterating satisfaction is a consequence of the degree expectations are either confirmed or disconfirmed also posits that expectations can be modified by interventions. Coye.s work conceptualises these interventions as intra encounter experiences (cues) which function to adjust expectations. Coye suggests some cues are unintended and may have a negative impact which also reinforces the value of planned cues intended to meet or exceed consumer expectations. Consequently the brochure can be characterized as a potentially positive cue, encouraging the patient to understand processes and to orient them in what can be a confronting environment. Only a limited number of studies have examined the effect of written interventions within an ED. No studies could be located which have tested the effect of ED interventions using a conceptual framework which relates the effect of the degree to which expectations are confirmed or disconfirmed in terms of satisfaction with services. Method: Two studies were conducted. Study One used qualitative methods to explore patients. expectations of the ED from the perspective of both patients and health care professionals. Study One was used in part to direct the development of the intervention (brochure) in Study Two. The brochure was an intervention designed to modify patients. expectations thus increasing their satisfaction with the provision of ED service. As there was no existing tools to measure ED patients. expectations and satisfaction a new tool was also developed based on the findings and the literature of Study One. Study Two used a non-randomised, quasi-experimental approach using a non-equivalent post-test only comparison group design used to investigate the effect of the patient education brochure (Stommel and Wills, 2004). The brochure was disseminated to one of two study groups (the intervention group). The effect of the brochure was assessed by comparing the data obtained from both the intervention and control group. These two groups consisted of 150 participants each. It was expected that any differences in the relevant domains selected for examination would indicate the effect of the brochure both on expectation and potentially satisfaction. Results: Study One revealed several areas of common ground between patients and nurses in terms of relevant content for the written intervention, including the need for information on the triage system and waiting times. Areas of difference were also found with patients emphasizing communication issues, whereas focus group members expressed concern that patients were often unable to assimilate verbal information. The findings suggested the potential utility of written material to reinforce verbal communication particularly in terms of the triage process and other ED protocols. This material was synthesized within the final version of the written intervention. Overall the results of Study Two indicated no significant differences between the two groups. The intervention group did indicate a significant number of participants who viewed the brochure of having changed their expectations. The effect of the brochure may have been obscured by a lack of parity between the two groups as the control group presented with statistically significantly higher levels of acuity and experienced significantly shorter waiting times. In terms of disconfirmation theory this would suggest expectations that had been met or exceeded. The results confirmed the correlation of expectations with satisfaction. Several domains also indicated age as a significant predictor with older patients tending to score higher satisfaction results. Other significant predictors of satisfaction established were waiting time and care from nurses, reinforcing the combination of efficient service and positive interpersonal experiences as being valued by patients. Conclusions: Information presented in written form appears to benefit a significant number of ED users in terms of orientation and explaining systems and procedures. The degree to which these effects may interact with other dimensions of satisfaction however is likely to be limited. Waiting time and interpersonal behaviours from staff also provide influential cues in determining satisfaction. Written material is likely to be one element in a series of coordinated strategies to improve patient satisfaction during periods of peak demand.

Implementing an emergency department patient admission predictive tool : insights from practice

Purpose: This paper aims to show that identification of expectations and software functional requirements via consultation with potential users is an integral component of the development of an emergency department patient admissions prediction tool. ---------- Design/methodology/approach: Thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews with 14 key health staff delivered rich data regarding existing practice and future needs. Participants included emergency department staff, bed managers, nurse unit managers, directors of nursing, and personnel from health administration. ---------- Findings: Participants contributed contextual insights on the current system of admissions, revealing a culture of crisis, imbued with misplayed communication. Their expectations and requirements of a potential predictive tool provided strategic data that moderated the development of the Emergency Department Patient Admissions Prediction Tool, based on their insistence that it feature availability, reliability and relevance. In order to deliver these stipulations, participants stressed that it should be incorporated, validated, defined and timely. ---------- Research limitations/implications: Participants were envisaging a concept and use of a tool that was somewhat hypothetical. However, further research will evaluate the tool in practice. ---------- Practical implications: Participants' unsolicited recommendations regarding implementation will not only inform a subsequent phase of the tool evaluation, but are eminently applicable to any process of implementation in a healthcare setting. ---------- Originality/value: The consultative process engaged clinicians and the paper delivers an insider view of an overburdened system, rather than an outsider's observations.

Generalised self-efficacy in relation to the life transitions of adult learners in a university setting : towards a narrative constructivist model of self-regulation

This paper demonstrates a model of self-regulation based on a qualitative research project with adult learners undertaking an undergraduate degree. The narrative about the participant’s life transitions, co-constructed with the researcher, yielded data about their generalised self-efficacy and resulted in a unique self-efficacy narrative for each participant. A model of self-regulation is proposed with potential applications for coaching, counselling and psychotherapy. A narrative method was employed to construct narratives about an individual’s self-efficacy in relation to their experience of learning and life transitions. The method involved a cyclical and iterative process using qualitative interviews to collect life history data from participants. In addition, research participants completed reflective homework tasks, and this data was included in the participant’s narratives. A highly collaborative method entailed narratives being co-constructed by researcher and research participants as the participants were guided in reflecting on their experience in relation to learning and life transitions; the reflection focused on behaviour, cognitions and emotions that constitute a sense of self-efficacy. The analytic process used was narrative analysis, in which life is viewed as constructed and experienced through the telling and retelling of stories and hence the analysis is the creation of a coherent and resonant story. The method of constructing self-efficacy narratives was applied to a sample of mature aged students starting an undergraduate degree. The research outcomes confirmed a three-factor model of self-efficacy, comprising three interrelated stages: initiating action, applying effort, and persistence in overcoming difficulties. Evaluation of the research process by participants suggested that they had gained an enhanced understanding of self-efficacy from their participation in the research process, and would be able to apply this understanding to their studies and other endeavours in the future. A model of self-regulation is proposed as a means for coaches, counsellors and psychotherapists working from a narrative constructivist perspective to assist clients facing life transitions by helping them generate selfefficacious cognitions, emotions and behaviour.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Outbreak in Australia: Impact on Emergency Departments.

Executive summary Objective: The aims of this study were to identify the impact of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza on Australian Emergency Departments (EDs) and their staff, and to inform planning, preparedness, and response management arrangements for future pandemics, as well as managing infectious patients presenting to EDs in everyday practice. Methods This study involved three elements: 1. The first element of the study was an examination of published material including published statistics. Standard literature research methods were used to identify relevant published articles. In addition, data about ED demand was obtained from Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) publications, with several state health departments providing more detailed data. 2. The second element of the study was a survey of Directors of Emergency Medicine identified with the assistance of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM). This survey retrieved data about demand for ED services and elicited qualitative comments on the impact of the pandemic on ED management. 3. The third element of the study was a survey of ED staff. A questionnaire was emailed to members of three professional colleges—the ACEM; the Australian College of Emergency Nursing (ACEN); and the College of Emergency Nursing Australasia (CENA). The overall response rate for the survey was 18.4%, with 618 usable responses from 3355 distributed questionnaires. Topics covered by the survey included ED conditions during the (H1N1) 2009 influenza pandemic; information received about Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza; pandemic plans; the impact of the pandemic on ED staff with respect to stress; illness prevention measures; support received from others in work role; staff and others’ illness during the pandemic; other factors causing ED staff to miss work during the pandemic; and vaccination against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected and analysed. Results: The results obtained from Directors of Emergency Medicine quantifying the impact of the pandemic were too limited for interpretation. Data sourced from health departments and published sources demonstrated an increase in influenza-like illness (ILI) presentations of between one and a half and three times the normal level of presentations of ILIs. Directors of Emergency Medicine reported a reasonable level of preparation for the pandemic, with most reporting the use of pandemic plans that translated into relatively effective operational infection control responses. Directors reported a highly significant impact on EDs and their staff from the pandemic. Growth in demand and related ED congestion were highly significant factors causing distress within the departments. Most (64%) respondents established a ‘flu clinic’ either as part of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Outbreak in Australia: Impact on Emergency Departments. the ED operations or external to it. They did not note a significantly higher rate of sick leave than usual. Responses relating to the impact on staff were proportional to the size of the colleges. Most respondents felt strongly that Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza had a significant impact on demand in their ED, with most patients having low levels of clinical urgency. Most respondents felt that the pandemic had a negative impact on the care of other patients, and 94% revealed some increase in stress due to lack of space for patients, increased demand, and filling staff deficits. Levels of concern about themselves or their family members contracting the illness were less significant than expected. Nurses displayed significantly higher levels of stress overall, particularly in relation to skill-mix requirements, lack of supplies and equipment, and patient and patients’ family aggression. More than one-third of respondents became ill with an ILI. Whilst respondents themselves reported taking low levels of sick leave, respondents cited difficulties with replacing absent staff. Ranked from highest to lowest, respondents gained useful support from ED colleagues, ED administration, their hospital occupational health department, hospital administration, professional colleges, state health department, and their unions. Respondents were generally positive about the information they received overall; however, the volume of information was considered excessive and sometimes inconsistent. The media was criticised as scaremongering and sensationalist and as being the cause of many unnecessary presentations to EDs. Of concern to the investigators was that a large proportion (43%) of respondents did not know whether a pandemic plan existed for their department or hospital. A small number of staff reported being redeployed from their usual workplace for personal risk factors or operational reasons. As at the time of survey (29 October –18 December 2009), 26% of ED staff reported being vaccinated against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza. Of those not vaccinated, half indicated they would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ not get vaccinated, with the main reasons being the vaccine was ‘rushed into production’, ‘not properly tested’, ‘came out too late’, or not needed due to prior infection or exposure, or due to the mildness of the disease. Conclusion: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza had a significant impact on Australian Emergency Departments. The pandemic exposed problems in existing plans, particularly a lack of guidelines, general information overload, and confusion due to the lack of a single authoritative information source. Of concern was the high proportion of respondents who did not know if their hospital or department had a pandemic plan. Nationally, the pandemic communication strategy needs a detailed review, with more engagement with media networks to encourage responsible and consistent reporting. Also of concern was the low level of immunisation, and the low level of intention to accept vaccination. This is a problem seen in many previous studies relating to seasonal influenza and health care workers. The design of EDs needs to be addressed to better manage infectious patients. Significant workforce issues were confronted in this pandemic, including maintaining appropriate staffing levels; staff exposure to illness; access to, and appropriate use of, personal protective equipment (PPE); and the difficulties associated with working in PPE for prolonged periods. An administrative issue of note was the reporting requirement, which created considerable additional stress for staff within EDs. Peer and local support strategies helped ensure staff felt their needs were provided for, creating resilience, dependability, and stability in the ED workforce. Policies regarding the establishment of flu clinics need to be reviewed. The ability to create surge capacity within EDs by considering staffing, equipment, physical space, and stores is of primary importance for future pandemics.

Compliance, normality and the patient on peritoneal dialysis

Monitoring and enhancing patient compliance with peritoneal dialysis (PD) is a recurring and problematic theme in the renal literature. A growing body of literature also argues that a failure to understand the patient's perspective of compliance may be contributing to these problems. The aim of this study was to understand the concept of compliance with PD from the patient's perspective. Using the case study approach recommended by Stake (1995), five patients on PD consented to in-depth interviews that explored the meaning of compliance in the context of PD treatment and lifestyle regimens recommended by health professionals. Participants also discussed factors that influenced their choices to follow, disregard, or refine these regimens. Results indicate that health professionals acting in alignment with individual patient needs and wishes, and demonstrating an awareness of the constraints under which patients operate and the strengths they bring to their treatment, may be the most significant issues to consider with respect to definitions of PD compliance and the development of related compliance interventions. Aspects of compliance that promoted relative normality were also important to the participants in this study and tended to result in greater concordance with health professionals' advice.

The provision of patient personal hygiene in the intensive care unit : a descriptive exploratory study of bed-bathing practice

Background/objectives The provision of the patient bed-bath is a fundamental nursing care activity yet few quantitative data and no qualitative data are available on registered nurses’ (RNs) clinical practice in this domain in the intensive care unit (ICU). The aim of this study was to describe ICU RNs current practice with respect to the timing, frequency and duration of the patient bed-bath and the cleansing and emollient agents used. Methods The study utilised a two-phase sequential explanatory mixed method design. Phase one used a questionnaire to survey RNs and phase two employed semi-structured focus group (FG) interviews with RNs. Data was collected over 28 days across four Australian metropolitan ICUs. Ethical approval was granted from the relevant hospital and university human research ethics committees. RNs were asked to complete a questionnaire following each episode of care (i.e. bed-bath) and then to attend one of three FG interviews: RNs with less than 2 years ICU experience; RNs with 2–5 years ICU experience; and RNs with greater than 5 years ICU experience. Results During the 28-day study period the four ICUs had 77.25 beds open. In phase one a total of 539 questionnaires were returned, representing 30.5% of episodes of patient bed-baths (based on 1767 bed occupancy and one bed-bath per patient per day). In 349 bed-bath episodes 54.7% patients were mechanically ventilated. The bed-bath was given between 02.00 and 06.00 h in 161 episodes (30%), took 15–30 min to complete (n = 195, 36.2%) and was completed within the last 8 h in 304 episodes (56.8%). Cleansing agents used were predominantly pH balanced soap or liquid soap and water (n = 379, 71%) in comparison to chlorhexidine impregnated sponges/cloths (n = 86, 16.1%) or other agents such as pre-packaged washcloths (n = 65, 12.2%). In 347 episodes (64.4%) emollients were not applied after the bed-bath. In phase two 12 FGs were conducted (three FGs at each ICU) with a total of 42 RN participants. Thematic analysis of FG transcripts across the three levels of RN ICU experience highlighted a transition of patient hygiene practice philosophy from shades of grey – falling in line for inexperienced clinicians to experienced clinicians concrete beliefs about patient bed-bath needs. Conclusions This study identified variation in process and products used in patient hygiene practices in four ICUs. Further study to improve patient outcomes is required to determine the appropriate timing of patient hygiene activities and cleansing agents used to improve skin integrity.

Optimism about safety and group-serving interpretations of safety among pedestrians and cyclists in relation to road use in general and under low light conditions

Drivers are known to be optimistic about their risk of crash involvement, believing that they are less likely to be involved in a crash than other drivers. However, little comparative research has been conducted among other road users. In addition, optimism about crash risk is conceptualised as applying only to an individual’s assessment of his or her personal risk of crash involvement. The possibility that the self-serving nature of optimism about safety might be generalised to the group-level as a cyclist or a pedestrian, i.e., becoming group-serving rather than self-serving, has been overlooked in relation to road safety. This study analysed a subset of data collected as part of a larger research project on the visibility of pedestrians, cyclists and road workers, focusing on a set of questionnaire items administered to 406 pedestrians, 838 cyclists and 622 drivers. The items related to safety in various scenarios involving drivers, pedestrians and cyclists, allowing predictions to be derived about group differences in agreement with items based on the assumption that the results would exhibit group-serving bias. Analysis of the responses indicated that specific hypotheses about group-serving interpretations of safety and responsibility were supported in 22 of the 26 comparisons. When the nine comparisons relevant to low lighting conditions were considered separately, seven were found to be supported. The findings of the research have implications for public education and for the likely acceptance of messages which are inconsistent with current assumptions and expectations of pedestrians and cyclists. They also suggest that research into group-serving interpretations of safety, even for temporary roles rather than enduring groups, could be fruitful. Further, there is an implication that gains in safety can be made by better educating road users about the limitations of their visibility and the ramifications of this for their own road safety, particularly in low light.

The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

Information transfer for multi-trauma patients on discharge from the emergency department : mixed-method narrative review

Aim. This paper is a report of a review conducted to identify (a) best practice in information transfer from the emergency department for multi-trauma patients; (b) conduits and barriers to information transfer in trauma care and related settings; and (c) interventions that have an impact on information communication at handover and beyond. Background. Information transfer is integral to effective trauma care, and communication breakdown results in important challenges to this. However, evidence of adequacy of structures and processes to ensure transfer of patient information through the acute phase of trauma care is limited. Data sources. Papers were sourced from a search of 12 online databases and scanning references from relevant papers for 1990–2009. Review methods. The review was conducted according to the University of York’s Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guidelines. Studies were included if they concerned issues that influenced information transfer for patients in healthcare settings. Results. Forty-five research papers, four literature reviews and one policy statement were found to be relevant to parts of the topic, but not all of it. The main issues emerging concerned the impact of communication breakdown in some form, and included communication issues within trauma team processes, lack of structure and clarity during handovers including missing, irrelevant and inaccurate information, distractions and poorly documented care. Conclusion. Many factors influence information transfer but are poorly identified in relation to trauma care. The measurement of information transfer, which is integral to patient handover, has not been the focus of research to date. Nonetheless, documented patient information is considered evidence of care and a resource that affects continuing care.