The line transect method for estimating densities of large mammals in a tropical deciduous forest: An evaluation of models and field experiments

We have evaluated techniques of estimating animal density through direct counts using line transects during 1988-92 in the tropical deciduous forests of Mudumalai Sanctuary in southern India for four species of large herbivorous mammals, namely, chital (Axis axis), sambar (Cervus unicolor), Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and gaur (Bos gauras). Density estimates derived from the Fourier Series and the Half-Normal models consistently had the lowest coefficient of variation. These two models also generated similar mean density estimates. For the Fourier Series estimator, appropriate cut-off widths for analysing line transect data for the four species are suggested. Grouping data into various distance classes did not produce any appreciable differences in estimates of mean density or their variances, although model fit is generally better when data are placed in fewer groups. The sampling effort needed to achieve a desired precision (coefficient of variation) in the density estimate is derived. A sampling effort of 800 km of transects returned a 10% coefficient of variation on estimate for chital; for the other species a higher effort was needed to achieve this level of precision. There was no statistically significant relationship between detectability of a group and the size of the group for any species. Density estimates along roads were generally significantly different from those in the interior af the forest, indicating that road-side counts may not be appropriate for most species.

Search for a Light Higgs Boson in Central Exclusive Diffraction: Method and Detectors

By detecting leading protons produced in the Central Exclusive Diffractive process, p+p → p+X+p, one can measure the missing mass, and scan for possible new particle states such as the Higgs boson. This process augments - in a model independent way - the standard methods for new particle searches at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and will allow detailed analyses of the produced central system, such as the spin-parity properties of the Higgs boson. The exclusive central diffractive process makes possible precision studies of gluons at the LHC and complements the physics scenarios foreseen at the next e+e− linear collider. This thesis first presents the conclusions of the first systematic analysis of the expected precision measurement of the leading proton momentum and the accuracy of the reconstructed missing mass. In this initial analysis, the scattered protons are tracked along the LHC beam line and the uncertainties expected in beam transport and detection of the scattered leading protons are accounted for. The main focus of the thesis is in developing the necessary radiation hard precision detector technology for coping with the extremely demanding experimental environment of the LHC. This will be achieved by using a 3D silicon detector design, which in addition to the radiation hardness of up to 5×10^15 neutrons/cm2, offers properties such as a high signal-to- noise ratio, fast signal response to radiation and sensitivity close to the very edge of the detector. This work reports on the development of a novel semi-3D detector design that simplifies the 3D fabrication process, but conserves the necessary properties of the 3D detector design required in the LHC and in other imaging applications.

Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

Improving GPS time series for geodynamic studies

Accurate and stable time series of geodetic parameters can be used to help in understanding the dynamic Earth and its response to global change. The Global Positioning System, GPS, has proven to be invaluable in modern geodynamic studies. In Fennoscandia the first GPS networks were set up in 1993. These networks form the basis of the national reference frames in the area, but they also provide long and important time series for crustal deformation studies. These time series can be used, for example, to better constrain the ice history of the last ice age and the Earth s structure, via existing glacial isostatic adjustment models. To improve the accuracy and stability of the GPS time series, the possible nuisance parameters and error sources need to be minimized. We have analysed GPS time series to study two phenomena. First, we study the refraction in the neutral atmosphere of the GPS signal, and, second, we study the surface loading of the crust by environmental factors, namely the non-tidal Baltic Sea, atmospheric load and varying continental water reservoirs. We studied the atmospheric effects on the GPS time series by comparing the standard method to slant delays derived from a regional numerical weather model. We have presented a method for correcting the atmospheric delays at the observational level. The results show that both standard atmosphere modelling and the atmospheric delays derived from a numerical weather model by ray-tracing provide a stable solution. The advantage of the latter is that the number of unknowns used in the computation decreases and thus, the computation may become faster and more robust. The computation can also be done with any processing software that allows the atmospheric correction to be turned off. The crustal deformation due to loading was computed by convolving Green s functions with surface load data, that is to say, global hydrology models, global numerical weather models and a local model for the Baltic Sea. The result was that the loading factors can be seen in the GPS coordinate time series. Reducing the computed deformation from the vertical time series of GPS coordinates reduces the scatter of the time series; however, the long term trends are not influenced. We show that global hydrology models and the local sea surface can explain up to 30% of the GPS time series variation. On the other hand atmospheric loading admittance in the GPS time series is low, and different hydrological surface load models could not be validated in the present study. In order to be used for GPS corrections in the future, both atmospheric loading and hydrological models need further analysis and improvements.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Stability Analysis of Composite Skew Plates Using a Dynamic Method

Stability analysis is carried out considering free lateral vibrations of simply supported composite skew plates that are subjected to both direct and shear in-plane forces. An oblique stress component representation is used, consistent with the skew-geometry of the plate. A double series, expressed in Chebyshev polynomials, is used here as the assumed deflection surface and Ritz method of solution is employed. Numerical results for different combinations of side ratios, skew angle, and in-plane loadings that act individually or in combination are obtained. In this method, the in-plane load parameter is varied until the fundamental frequency goes to zero. The value of the in-plane load then corresponds to a critical buckling load. Plots of frequency parameter versus in-plane loading are given for a few typical cases. Details of crossings and quasi degeneracies of these curves are presented.

Formation and preservation of pedogenic carbonates in South India, links with paleo-monsoon and pedological conditions: Clues from Sr isotopes, U-Th series and REEs

The influence of the pedogenic and climatic contexts on the formation and preservation of pedogenic carbonates in a climosequence in the Western Ghats (Karnataka Plateau, South West India) has been studied. Along the climosequence, the current mean annual rainfall (MAR) varies within a 80 km transect from 6000 mm at the edge of the Plateau to 500 mm inland. Pedogenic carbonates occur in the MAR range of 500-1200 mm. In the semi-arid zone (MAR: 500-900 mm), carbonates occur (i) as rhick hardpan calcretes on pediment slopes and (ii) as nodular horizons in polygenic black soils (i.e. vertisols). In the sub-humid zone (MAR: 900-1500 mm), pedogenic carbonates are disseminated in the black soil matrices either as loose, irregular and friable nodules of millimetric size or as indurated botryoidal nodules of centimetric to pluricentimetric size. They also occur at the top layers of the saprolite either as disseminated pluricentimetric indurated nodules or carbonate-cemented lumps of centimetric to decimetric size. Chemical and isotopic (Sr-87/Sr-86) compositions of the carbonate fraction were determined after leaching with 0.25 N HCl. The corresponding residual fractions containing both primary minerals and authigenic clays were digested separately and analyzed. The trend defined by the Sr-87/Sr-86 signatures of both labile carbonate fractions and corresponding residual fractions indicates that a part of the labile carbonate fraction is genetically linked to the local soil composition. Considering the residual fraction of each sample as the most likely lithogenic source of Ca in carbonates, it is estimated that from 24% to 82% (55% on average) of Ca is derived from local bedrock weathering, leading to a consumption of an equivalent proportion of atmospheric CO2. These values indicate that climatic conditions were humid enough to allow silicate weathering: MAR at the time of carbonate formation likely ranged from 400 to 700 mm, which is 2- to 3-fold less than the current MAR at these locations. The Sr, U and Mg contents and the (U-234/U-238) activity ratio in the labile carbonate fraction help to understand the conditions of carbonate formation. The relatively high concentrations of Sr, U and Mg in black soil carbonates may indicate fast growth and accumulation compared to carbonates in saprolite, possibly due to a better confinement of the pore waters which is supported by their high (U-234/U-238) signatures, and/or to higher content of dissolved carbonates in the pore waters. The occurrence of Ce, Mn and Fe oxides in the cracks of carbonate reflects the existence of relatively humid periods after carbonate formation. The carbonate ages determined by the U-Th method range from 1.33 +/- 0.84 kyr to 7.5 +/- 2.7 kyr and to a cluster of five ages around 20 kyr, i.e. the Last Glacial Maximum period. The young occurrences are only located in the black soils, which therefore constitute sensitive environments for trapping and retaining atmospheric CO2 even on short time scales. The maximum age of carbonates depends on their location in the climatic gradient: from about 20 kyr for centimetric nodules at Mule Hole (MAR = 1100 mm/yr) to 200 kyr for the calcrete at Gundlupet (MAR = 700 mm/yr, Durand et al., 2007). The intensity of rainfall during wet periods would indeed control the lifetime of pedogenic carbonates and thus the duration of inorganic carbon storage in soils. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oriented films of LaNiO3 and other members of the Lan+1NinO3n+1 series, LaCuO3−δ and Pb(Zr0.52Ti0.48)O3, obtained by nebulized spray pyrolysis

The technique of nebulized spray pyrolysis has been explored to find out whether oriented films of certain important oxides can be produced on single-crystal substrates by this relatively gentle method. Starting with acetylacetonate precursors, oriented films of metallic LaNiO3 containing nearly spherical grains (30 nm) have been obtained. Films of near-stoichiometric La4Ni3O10 and La3Ni2O7 showing metallic conductivity have been obtained by this method. This is indeed gratifying since it is difficult to prepare monophasic and stoichiometric bulk samples of these materials. Films of La2NiO4 show the expected semiconducting behavior. In the La-Cu-O system, starting with acetylacetonates, we have obtained films mainly comprising semiconducting La2Cu2O5, which is generally difficult to prepare in bulk form. More interestingly, nebulized spray pyrolysis gives excellent stoichiometric films of Pb(Zr0.52Ti0.48)O-3 consisting of nearly spherical grains (30 nm) which show ferroelectric behavior. The present investigation demonstrates that nebulized spray pyrolysis provides a useful and desirable route to deposite oriented films of complex oxide materials on single-crystal substrates.

Microwave heating in multiphase systems: evaluation of series solutions

The 1D electric field and heat-conduction equations are solved for a slab where the dielectric properties vary spatially in the sample. Series solutions to the electric field are obtained for systems where the spatial variation in the dielectric properties can be expressed as polynomials. The series solution is used to obtain electric-field distributions for a binary oil-water system where the dielectric properties are assumed to vary linearly within the sample. Using the finite-element method temperature distributions are computed in a three-phase oil, water and rock system where the dielectric properties vary due to the changing oil saturation in the rock. Temperature distributions predicted using a linear variation in the dielectric properties are compared with those obtained using the exact nonlinear variation.

Ground-fault-arc suppression on series-and shunt-compensated lines

An extension of Rizk's analysis to cover any type of switching is presented for calculating the residual current and recovery voltage in a singlephase switched transmission system. Equations for the determination of the current and voltage are shown, and the method has been used for the analysis of a series- and shunt-compensated line.Three possible switching methods for the effective control of the recovery voltage and residual current are discussed: normal switching, switching at the ends of the line and switching of the series capacitors.

The radiation resistance of off-set series slots in microstrip line

The radiation resistance of off-set series slots has been calculated for microstrip lines using the method proposed by Breithaupt for strip lines. A suitable transformation is made to allow for the difference in structure. Curves relating the slot resistance to the microstrip length, width and off-set distance have been obtained. Microstrip slot antenna arrays are becoming important in applications where size and weight are of significance. The radiation resistance is a very significant parameter is the design of such arrays. Oliner first calculated the radiation conductance of centered series slots in strip transmission lines and that analysis was extended by Breithaupt to the off-set series slots in stripline. The radiation resistance of off-set series slots in microstrip lines is calculated in this paper and data are obtained for different slot lengths, slot widths and off-set values. An example of the use of these data in array antenna design in shown.

Control technique for non-linear and unbalance compensation of an integrated magnetics-based three-phase series-shunt-compensated uninterruptible power supply

Handling unbalanced and non-linear loads in a three-phase AC power supply has always been a difficult issue. This has been addressed in the literature by either using fast controllers in the fundamental rotating reference frame or using separate controllers in reference frames specific to the harmonics. In the former case, the controller needs to be fast and in the latter case, besides the need for many controllers, negative-sequence components need to be extracted from the measured signal. This study proposes a control scheme for harmonic and unbalance compensation of a three-phase uninterruptible power supply wherein the problems mentioned above are addressed. The control takes place in the fundamental positive-sequence reference frame using only a set of feedback and feed-forward compensators. The harmonic components are extracted by a process of frame transformations and used as feed-forward compensation terms in the positive-sequence fundamental reference frame. This study uses a method wherein the measured signal itself is used for fundamental negative-sequence compensation. As the feed-forward compensator handles the high-bandwidth components, the feedback compensator can be a simple low-bandwidth one. This control algorithm is explained and validated experimentally.

Control technique for non-linear and unbalance compensation of an integrated magnetics-based three-phase series-shunt-compensated uninterruptible power supply

Handling unbalanced and non-linear loads in a three-phase AC power supply has always been a difficult issue. This has been addressed in the literature by either using fast controllers in the fundamental rotating reference frame or using separate controllers in reference frames specific to the harmonics. In the former case, the controller needs to be fast and in the latter case, besides the need for many controllers, negative-sequence components need to be extracted from the measured signal. This study proposes a control scheme for harmonic and unbalance compensation of a three-phase uninterruptible power supply wherein the problems mentioned above are addressed. The control takes place in the fundamental positive-sequence reference frame using only a set of feedback and feed-forward compensators. The harmonic components are extracted by a process of frame transformations and used as feed-forward compensation terms in the positive-sequence fundamental reference frame. This study uses a method wherein the measured signal itself is used for fundamental negative-sequence compensation. As the feed-forward compensator handles the high-bandwidth components, the feedback compensator can be a simple low-bandwidth one. This control algorithm is explained and validated experimentally.

Control technique for non-linear and unbalance compensation of an integrated magnetics-based three-phase series-shunt-compensated uninterruptible power supply

Handling unbalanced and non-linear loads in a three-phase AC power supply has always been a difficult issue. This has been addressed in the literature by either using fast controllers in the fundamental rotating reference frame or using separate controllers in reference frames specific to the harmonics. In the former case, the controller needs to be fast and in the lattercase, besides the need for many controllers, negative-sequence components need to be extracted from the measured signal.This study proposes a control scheme for harmonic and unbalance compensation of a three-phase uninterruptible power supply wherein the problems mentioned above are addressed. The control takes place in the fundamental positive-sequence reference frame using only a set of feedback and feed-forward compensators. The harmonic components are extracted by process of frame transformations and used as feed-forward compensation terms in the positive-sequence fundamental reference frame. This study uses a method wherein the measured signal itself is used for fundamental negative-sequence compensation. As the feed-forward compensator handles the high-bandwidth components, the feedback compensator can be a simple low-bandwidth one. This control algorithm is explained and validated experimentally.

Estimation of Series Capacitance of a Transformer Winding Based on Frequency-Response Data: An Indirect Measurement Approach

A novel procedure to determine the series capacitance of a transformer winding, based on frequency-response measurements, is reported. It is based on converting the measured driving-point impedance magnitude response into a rational function and thereafter exploiting the ratio of a specific coefficient in the numerator and denominator polynomial, which leads to the direct estimation of series capacitance. The theoretical formulations are derived for a mutually coupled ladder-network model, followed by sample calculations. The results obtained are accurate and its feasibility is demonstrated by experiments on model-coil and on actual, single, isolated transformer windings (layered, continuous disc, and interleaved disc). The authors believe that the proposed method is the closest one can get to indirectly measuring series capacitance.