Curvature based mobility analysis and form closure of smooth planar curves with multiple contacts

This paper presents a simple second-order, curvature based mobility analysis of planar curves in contact. The underlying theory deals with penetration and separation of curves with multiple contacts, based on relative configuration of osculating circles at points of contact for a second-order rotation about each point of the plane. Geometric and analytical treatment of mobility analysis is presented for generic as well as special contact geometries. For objects with a single contact, partitioning of the plane into four types of mobility regions has been shown. Using point based composition operations based on dual-number matrices, analysis has been extended to computationally handle multiple contacts scenario. A novel color coded directed line has been proposed to capture the contact scenario. Multiple contacts mobility is obtained through intersection of the mobility half-spaces. It is derived that mobility region comprises a pair of unbounded or a single bounded convex polygon. The theory has been used for analysis and synthesis of form closure configurations, revolute and prismatic kinematic pairs. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

Analysis of Evader Survivability Enhancement by Decoy Deployment

In this paper, the strategy of an evader using a decoy, against a pursuer in a planar engagement scenario, is considered. The decoy launch angle (decoy heading) and decoy launch time are the decision variables. An analytic expression is derived for the range of decoy launch angles, as a function of launch time that guarantees the effectiveness of the decoy in luring the pursuer. This is used to define an effective launch envelope for the decoy. Extensive simulation studies are carried out for different decoy launch angles and launch time. The simulation results closely match the analytical results.

Error exponent analysis of energy-based Bayesian decentralized spectrum sensing under fading

This paper considers decentralized spectrum sensing, i.e., detection of occupancy of the primary users' spectrum by a set of Cognitive Radio (CR) nodes, under a Bayesian set-up. The nodes use energy detection to make their individual decisions, which are combined at a Fusion Center (FC) using the K-out-of-N fusion rule. The channel from the primary transmitter to the CR nodes is assumed to undergo fading, while that from the nodes to the FC is assumed to be error-free. In this scenario, a novel concept termed as the Error Exponent with a Confidence Level (EECL) is introduced to evaluate and compare the performance of different detection schemes. Expressions for the EECL under general fading conditions are derived. As a special case, it is shown that the conventional error exponent both at individual sensors, and at the FC is zero. Further, closed-form lower bounds on the EECL are derived under Rayleigh fading and lognormal shadowing. As an example application, it answers the question of whether to use pilot-signal based narrowband sensing, where the signal undergoes Rayleigh fading, or to sense over the entire bandwidth of a wideband signal, where the signal undergoes lognormal shadowing. Theoretical results are validated using Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Status of the 98-125 GeV Higgs bosons scenario with updated LHC-8 data

In the context of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM), we discuss the possibility of the lightest Higgs boson with mass M-h = 98 GeV to be consistent with the 2.3 sigma excess observed at the LEP in the decay mode e(+)e(-) -> Zh, with h -> b (b) over bar. In the same region of the MSSM parameter space, the heavier Higgs boson (H) with mass M-H similar to 125 GeV is required to be consistent with the latest data on Higgs coupling measurements at the end of the 7 + 8 TeV LHC run with 25 fb(-1) of data. While scanning the MSSM parameter space, we impose constraints coming from flavor physics, relic density of the cold dark matter as well as direct dark matter searches. We study the possibility of observing this light Higgs boson in vector boson fusion process and associated production with W/Z-boson at the high luminosity (3000 fb(-1)) run of the 14 TeV LHC. Our analysis shows that this scenario can hardly be ruled out even at the high luminosity run of the LHC. However, the precise measurement of the Higgs signal strength ratios can play a major role to distinguish this scenario from the canonical MSSM one.

New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model

48 p.

Risk analysis in aquaculture: A step-by-step introduction with worked examples

This publication is based on materials covered and outputs generated during the Workshop on Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools for Aquaculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, which was jointly held by WorldFish and FAO in Siavonga, Zambia on 28 June - 2 July 2010. The workshop was delivered as a training exercise to 17 participants from seven sub-Saharan countries and was designed to highlight current methodologies and tools available for environmental risk analysis in aquaculture development. A key focus of the workshop was to encourage participants to consider hypothetical but realistic scenarios and to discuss issues relevant to evaluating the environmental risks of a given activity or scenario. This publication presents selected scenarios from the workshop and the outcomes of the deliberative process as developed by the participants. This publication is factual but not comprehensive, therefore any statements or estimations of risk do not represent the actual risks arising from the described scenario. It is intended to serve as an easily readable introduction to risk analysis, highlighting worked examples that will provide guidance on how a risk analysis may be approached in a similar situation.

Sequence context analysis in the mouse genome: Single nucleotide polymorphisms and CpG island sequences

A genome-wide view of sequence mutability in mice is still limited, although biologists usually assume the same scenario for mice as for humans. In this study, we examined the sequence context in the local environment of 482,528 mouse single nucleotide po

System Dynamics and Scenario Planning: Implementation Challenges

In this paper we discuss key implementation challenges of a systems approach that combines System Dynamics, Scenario Planning and Qualitative Data Analysis methods in tackling a complex problem. We present the methods and the underlying framework. We then detail the main difficulties encountered in designing and planning the Scenario Planning workshop and how they were overcome, such as finding and involving the stakeholders and customising the process to fit within timing constraints. After presenting the results from this application, we argue that the consultants or system analysts need to engage with the stakeholders as process facilitators and not as system experts in order to gain commitment, trust and to improve information sharing. They also need be ready to adapt their tools and processes as well as their own thinking for more effective complex problem solving.

Analysis of the sea-level variability along the Chinese coast and estimation of the impact of a CO2-perturbed atmospheric circulation

The relationship between monthly sea-level data measured at stations located along the Chinese coast and concurrent large-scale atmospheric forcing in the period 1960-1990 is examined. It is found that sea-level varies quite coherently along the whole coast, despite the geographical extension of the station set. A canonical correlation analysis between sea-level and sea-level pressure (SLP) indicates that a great part of the sea-level variability can be explained by the action of the wind stress on the ocean surface. The relationship between sea-level and sea-level pressure is analyzed separately for the summer and winter half-years. In winter, one factor affecting sea-level variability at all stations is the SLP contrast between the continent and the Pacific Ocean, hence the intensity of the winter Monsoon circulation. Another factor that affects coherently all stations is the intensity of the zonal circulation at mid-latitudes. In the summer half year, on the other hand, the influence of SLP on sea-level is spatially less coherent: the stations in the Yellow Sea are affected by a more localized circulation anomaly pattern, whereas the rest of the stations is more directly connected to the intensity of the zonal circulation. Based on this analysis, statistical models (different for summer and winter) to hindcast coastal sealevel anomalies from the large-scale SLP field are formulated. These models have been tested by fitting their internal parameters in a test period and reproducing reasonably the sea-level evolution in an independent period. These statistical models are also used to estimate the contribution of the changes of the atmospheric circulation on sea-level along the Chinese coast in an altered climate. For this purpose the ouput of 150 year-long experiment with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model ECHAM1-LSG has been analyzed, in which the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was continuously increased from 1940 until 2090, according to the Scenario A projection of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. In this experiment the meridional (zonal) circulation relevant for sea-level tends to become weaker (stronger) in the winter half year and stronger (weaker) in summer. The estimated contribution of this atmospheric circulation changes to coastal sea-level is of the order of a few centimeters at the end of the integration, being in winter negative in the Yellow Sea and positive in the China Sea with opposite signs in the summer half-year.

A scenario-driven decision support system for serious crime investigation

Q. Shen, J. Keppens, C. Aitken, B. Schafer, and M. Lee. A scenario driven decision support system for serious crime investigation. Law, Probability and Risk, 5(2):87-117, 2006. Sponsorship: UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant GR/S63267; partially supported by grant GR/S98603

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the diagnosis of meniscus tears.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic imaging represents the fastest growing segment of costs in the US health system. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of alternative diagnostic approaches to meniscus tears of the knee, a highly prevalent disease that traditionally relies on MRI as part of the diagnostic strategy. PURPOSE: To identify the most efficient strategy for the diagnosis of meniscus tears. STUDY DESIGN: Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 1. METHODS: A simple-decision model run as a cost-utility analysis was constructed to assess the value added by MRI in various combinations with patient history and physical examination (H&P). The model examined traumatic and degenerative tears in 2 distinct settings: primary care and orthopaedic sports medicine clinic. Strategies were compared using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: In both practice settings, H&P alone was widely preferred for degenerative meniscus tears. Performing MRI to confirm a positive H&P was preferred for traumatic tears in both practice settings, with a willingness to pay of less than US$50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Performing an MRI for all patients was not preferred in any reasonable clinical scenario. The prevalence of a meniscus tear in a clinician's patient population was influential. For traumatic tears, MRI to confirm a positive H&P was preferred when prevalence was less than 46.7%, with H&P preferred above that. For degenerative tears, H&P was preferred until the prevalence reaches 74.2%, and then MRI to confirm a negative was the preferred strategy. In both settings, MRI to confirm positive physical examination led to more than a 10-fold lower rate of unnecessary surgeries than did any other strategy, while MRI to confirm negative physical examination led to a 2.08 and 2.26 higher rate than H&P alone in primary care and orthopaedic clinics, respectively. CONCLUSION: For all practitioners, H&P is the preferred strategy for the suspected degenerative meniscus tear. An MRI to confirm a positive H&P is preferred for traumatic tears for all practitioners. Consideration should be given to implementing alternative diagnostic strategies as well as enhancing provider education in physical examination skills to improve the reliability of H&P as a diagnostic test. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Alternative diagnostic strategies that do not include the use of MRI may result in decreased health care costs without harm to the patient and could possibly reduce unnecessary procedures.

Analysis of crush behaviours of a rail cab car and structural modifications for improved crashworthiness

In this paper, the authors present a crashworthiness assessment and suggestions for modification of a conventionally designed rail vehicle with a driving cab (cab car). The analytical approach, based on numerical analysis, consisted of two stages. Firstly, the crashworthiness of the cab car was assessed by simulating a collision between the cab car and a rigid wall. Then, after analysing structural weaknesses, the design of the cab car was modified and simulated again in the same scenario. It was found that downward bending is an intrinsic weakness in conventional rail vehicles and that jackknifing is a main form of failures in conventional rail vehicle components. The cab car, as modified by the authors, overcomes the original weaknesses and shows the desired progressive collapse behaviour in simulation. The conclusions have general relevance for other studies but more importantly, point to the need for a rethink of some aspects of rail vehicle design.

Analysis of the structural characteristics of an intermediate rail vehicle and their effect on vehicle crash performance

In the current paper, the authors present an analysis of the structural characteristics of an intermediate rail vehicle and their effects on crash performance of the vehicle. Theirs is a simulation based analysis involving four stages. First, the crashworthiness of the vehicle is assessed by simulating an impact of the vehicle with a rigid wall. Second, the structural characteristics of the vehicle are analysed based on the structural behaviour during this impact and then the structure is modified. Third, the modified vehicle is tested again in the same impact scenario with a rigid wall. Finally, the modified vehicle is subjected to a modelled head-on impact which mirrors the real-life impact interface between two intermediate vehicles in a train impact. The emphasis of the current study is on the structural characteristics of the intermediate vehicle and the differences compared to an impact of a leading vehicle. The study shows that, similar to a leading vehicle, bending, or jackknifing is a main form of failure in this conventionally designed intermediate vehicle. It has also been found that the location of the door openings creates a major difference in the behaviour of an intermediate vehicle. It causes instability of the vehicle in the door area and leads to high stresses at the joint of the end beam with the solebar and shear stresses at the joint of the inner pillar with the cantrail. Apart from this, the shapes of the vehicle ends and impact interfaces are also different and have an effect on the crash performance of the vehicles. The simulation results allow the identification of the structural characteristics and show the effectiveness of relevant modifications. The conclusions have general relevance for the crashworthiness of rail vehicle design

Cooperative communications in ultra-wideband wireless body area networks: Channel modeling and system diversity analysis

In this paper, we explore the application of cooperative communications in ultra-wideband (UWB) wireless body area networks (BANs), where a group of on-body devices may collaborate together to communicate with other groups of on-body equipment. Firstly, time-domain UWB channel measurements are presented to characterize the body-centric multipath channel and to facilitate the diversity analysis in a cooperative BAN (CoBAN). We focus on the system deployment scenario when the human subject is in the sitting posture. Important channel parameters such as the pathloss, power variation, power delay profile (PDP), and effective received power (ERP) crosscorrelation are investigated and statistically analyzed. Provided with the model preliminaries, a detailed analysis on the diversity level in a CoBAN is provided. Specifically, an intuitive measure is proposed to quantify the diversity gains in a single-hop cooperative network, which is defined as the number of independent multipaths that can be averaged over to detect symbols. As this measure provides the largest number of redundant copies of transmitted information through the body-centric channel, it can be used as a benchmark to access the performance bound of various diversity-based cooperative schemes in futuristic body sensor systems.