The Costs of Ecosystem Adaptation: Methodology and Estimates for Indian Forests

34 p.

The Voting Rights Act, Shelby County, and Redistricting: Improving Estimates of Racially Polarized Voting in a Multiple-Election Context

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

Lq estimates for rearrangements of Fourier series

This work is concerned with estimating the upper envelopes S* of the absolute values of the partial sums of rearranged trigonometric sums. A.M. Garsia [Annals of Math. 79 (1964), 634-9] gave an estimate for the L₂ norms of the S*, averaged over all rearrangements of the original (finite) sum. This estimate enabled him to prove that the Fourier series of any function in L₂ can be rearranged so that it converges a.e. The main result of this thesis is a similar estimate of the L_q norms of the S*, for all even integers q. This holds for finite linear combinations of functions which satisfy a condition which is a generalization of orthonormality in the L₂ case. This estimate for finite sums is extended to Fourier series of L_q functions; it is shown that there are functions to which the Men’shov-Paley Theorem does not apply, but whose Fourier series can nevertheless be rearranged so that the S* of the rearranged series is in L_q.

Energy inequalities and error estimates for axisymmetric torsion of thin elastic shells of revolution

The problem motivating this investigation is that of pure axisymmetric torsion of an elastic shell of revolution. The analysis is carried out within the framework of the three-dimensional linear theory of elastic equilibrium for homogeneous, isotropic solids. The objective is the rigorous estimation of errors involved in the use of approximations based on thin shell theory.

The underlying boundary value problem is one of Neumann type for a second order elliptic operator. A systematic procedure for constructing pointwise estimates for the solution and its first derivatives is given for a general class of second-order elliptic boundary-value problems which includes the torsion problem as a special case.

The method used here rests on the construction of “energy inequalities” and on the subsequent deduction of pointwise estimates from the energy inequalities. This method removes certain drawbacks characteristic of pointwise estimates derived in some investigations of related areas.

Special interest is directed towards thin shells of constant thickness. The method enables us to estimate the error involved in a stress analysis in which the exact solution is replaced by an approximate one, and thus provides us with a means of assessing the quality of approximate solutions for axisymmetric torsion of thin shells.

Finally, the results of the present study are applied to the stress analysis of a circular cylindrical shell, and the quality of stress estimates derived here and those from a previous related publication are discussed.

A mathematical and experimental investigation of microcycle spectral estimates of semiconductor flicker noise

The experimental portion of this thesis tries to estimate the density of the power spectrum of very low frequency semiconductor noise, from 10^-6.3 cps to 1. cps with a greater accuracy than that achieved in previous similar attempts: it is concluded that the spectrum is 1/f^α with α approximately 1.3 over most of the frequency range, but appearing to have a value of about 1 in the lowest decade. The noise sources are, among others, the first stage circuits of a grounded input silicon epitaxial operational amplifier. This thesis also investigates a peculiar form of stationarity which seems to distinguish flicker noise from other semiconductor noise.

In order to decrease by an order of magnitude the pernicious effects of temperature drifts, semiconductor "aging", and possible mechanical failures associated with prolonged periods of data taking, 10 independent noise sources were time-multiplexed and their spectral estimates were subsequently averaged. If the sources have similar spectra, it is demonstrated that this reduces the necessary data-taking time by a factor of 10 for a given accuracy.

In view of the measured high temperature sensitivity of the noise sources, it was necessary to combine the passive attenuation of a special-material container with active control. The noise sources were placed in a copper-epoxy container of high heat capacity and medium heat conductivity, and that container was immersed in a temperature controlled circulating ethylene-glycol bath.

Other spectra of interest, estimated from data taken concurrently with the semiconductor noise data were the spectra of the bath's controlled temperature, the semiconductor surface temperature, and the power supply voltage amplitude fluctuations. A brief description of the equipment constructed to obtain the aforementioned data is included.

The analytical portion of this work is concerned with the following questions: what is the best final spectral density estimate given 10 statistically independent ones of varying quality and magnitude? How can the Blackman and Tukey algorithm which is used for spectral estimation in this work be improved upon? How can non-equidistant sampling reduce data processing cost? Should one try to remove common trands shared by supposedly statistically independent noise sources and, if so, what are the mathematical difficulties involved? What is a physically plausible mathematical model that can account for flicker noise and what are the mathematical implications on its statistical properties? Finally, the variance of the spectral estimate obtained through the Blackman/Tukey algorithm is analyzed in greater detail; the variance is shown to diverge for α ≥ 1 in an assumed power spectrum of k/|f|^α, unless the assumed spectrum is "truncated".

Fecundity estimates for Maryland Striped Bass

Contemporary striped bass population modeling efforts on coastal stocks point to a reduced population fecundity in Chesapeake Bay being partially responsible for declining reproduction (Anonymous 1985; Boreman and Goodyear 1984). Fecundity values used in these models were based on earlier work by jackson and tiller (1952), lewis and Bonner (1966), Hollis (1967) and Holland and Yelverton (1973). An important feature to the Boreman and Goodyear (1985) model (FSIM) is an accurate determination of the fecundity weight regression equation used to determine the rate of egg deposition over time. Egg deposition models in turn can be used to determine how reproductive potential is changing over time in response to various management actions, i.e. reducing fishing mortality rates. thus it is imperative to follow population stock structure in the Bay system and to develop a contemporary fecundity relationship for striped bass. This report deals with the gonadal material collected in 1986 and 1987 from a coordinated Maryland field program. Samples were obtained from drift gill net collections during the spawning season from four localities: Potomac Estuary, Upper Bay, Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, and the Choptank Estuary (Figure 1).

Elasticidade-PIB do Imposto de Renda Pessoa Física e Jurídica

O objetivo específico da presente dissertação é estimar a elasticidade-PIB do Imposto de Renda Pessoa Física (IRPF) e Imposto Renda Pessoa Jurídica (IRPJ) no Brasil entre 1986 e 2012. A pesquisa também incorpora em seus objetivos uma análise técnica a respeito da tributação e seus impactos sobre o sistema econômico, tanto a nível microeconômico e macroeconômico, além de abordar o IRPF e IRPJ em seu aspecto econômico e jurídico. No tratamento metodológico são utilizados modelos de Vetor de Correção de erros (VEC) para estimar as elasticidades-PIB do IRPF e IRPJ. Os resultados apontam uma elasticidade-PIB, tanto para IRPF quanto IRPJ, acima da unidade, na maioria dos modelos estimados, e existem períodos determinados que impactam consideravelmente sobre à arrecadação desses tributos.

Comparison of habitat-based indices of abundance with fishery-independent biomass estimates from bottom trawl surveys

Rockfish species are notoriously difficult to sample with multispecies bottom trawl survey methods. Typically, biomass estimates have high coefficients of variation and can fluctuate outside the bounds of biological reality from year to year. This variation may be due in part to their patchy distribution related to very specific habitat preferences. We successfully modeled the distribution of five commercially important and abundant rockf ish species. A two-stage modeling method (modeling both presence-absence and abundance) and a collection of important habitat variables were used to predict bottom trawl survey catch per unit of effort. The resulting models explained between 22% and 66% of the variation in rockfish distribution. The models were largely driven by depth, local slope, bottom temperature, abundance of coral and sponge, and measures of water column productivity (i.e., phytoplankton and zooplankton). A year-effect in the models was back-transformed and used as an index of the time series of abundance. The abundance index trajectories of three of five species were similar to the existing estimates of their biomass. In the majority of cases the habitat-based indices exhibited less interannual variability and similar precision when compared with stratified survey-based biomass estimates. These indices may provide for stock assessment models a more stable alternative to current biomass estimates produced by the multispecies bottom trawl survey in the Gulf of Alaska.

Integrating methods for determining length-at-age to improve growth estimates for two large scombrids

Fish growth is commonly estimated from length-at-age data obtained from otoliths. There are several techniques for estimating length-at-age from otoliths including 1) direct observed counts of annual increments; 2) age adjustment based on a categorization of otolith margins; 3) age adjustment based on known periods of spawning and annuli formation; 4) back-calculation to all annuli, and 5) back-calculation to the last annulus only. In this study we compared growth estimates (von Bertalanffy growth functions) obtained from the above five methods for estimating length-at-age from otoliths for two large scombrids: narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) and broad-barred king mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus). Likelihood ratio tests revealed that the largest differences in growth occurred between the back-calculation methods and the observed and adjusted methods for both species of mackerel. The pattern, however, was more pronounced for S. commerson than for S. semifasciatus, because of the pronounced effect of gear selectivity demonstrated for S. commerson. We propose a method of substituting length-at-age data from observed or adjusted methods with back-calculated length-at-age data to provide more appropriate estimates of population growth than those obtained with the individual methods alone, particularly when faster growing young fish are disproportionately selected for. Substitution of observed or adjusted length-at-age data with back-calculated length-at-age data provided more realistic estimates of length for younger ages than observed or adjusted methods as well as more realistic estimates of mean maximum length than those derived from backcalculation methods alone.

Estimates of body sizes at maturation and at sex change, and the spawning seasonality and sex ratio of the endemic Hawaiian grouper (Hyporthodus quernus, F. Epinephelidae)

A case study of the reproductive biology of the endemic Hawaiian grouper or hapu’upu’u (Hyporthodus quernus) is presented as a model for comprehensive future studies of economically important epinephelid groupers. Specimens were collected throughout multiple years (1978–81, 1992–93, and 2005–08) from most reefs and banks of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The absence of small males, presence of atretic oocytes and brown bodies in testes of mature males, and both developed ovarian and testicular tissues in the gonads of five transitional fish provided evidence of protogynous hermaphroditism. No small mature males were collected, indicating that Hawaiian grouper are monandrous (all males are sex-changed females). Complementary microscopic criteria also were used to assign reproductive stage and estimate median body sizes (L50) at female sexual maturity and at adult sex change from female to male. The L50 at maturation and at sex change was 580 ±8 (95% confidence interval [CI]) mm total length (TL) and 895 ±20 mm TL, respectively. The adult sex ratio was strongly female biased (6:1). Spawning seasonality was described by using gonadosomatic indices. Females began ripening in the fall and remained ripe through April. A February–June main spawning period that followed peak ripening was deduced from the proportion of females whose ovaries contained hydrated oocytes, postovulatory follicles, or both. Testes weights were not affected by season; average testes weight was only about 0.2% of body weight—an order of magnitude smaller than that for ovaries that peaked at 1–3% of body weight. The species’ reproductive life history is discussed in relation to its management.

Sensitivity of angler benefit estimates from a model of recreational demand to the definition of the substitute sites considered by the angler

Fishery managers are mandated to understand the effects that environmental damage, fishery regulations, and habitat improvement projects have on the net benefits that recreational anglers derive from their sport. Since 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has worked to develop a consistent method for estimating net benefits through site choice models of recreational trip demand. In estimating net benefits with these models, there is a tradeoff between computational efficiency and angler behavior in reality. This article examines this tradeoff by considering the sensitivity of angler-welfare estimates for an increase in striped bass (Morone saxatalis) angling quality across choice sets with five travel distance cutoffs and compares those estimates to a model with an unrestricted choice set. This article shows that 95% confidence intervals for welfare estimates of an increase in the striped bass catch and keep rate overlap for all distance-based choice sets specified here.

Precision estimates and suggested sample sizes for length-frequency data

For most fisheries applications, the shape of a length-frequency distribution is much more important than its mean length or variance. This makes it difficult to evaluate at which point a sample size is adequate. By estimating the coefficient of variation of the counts in each length class and taking a weighted mean of these, a measure of precision was obtained that takes the precision in all length classes into account. The precision estimates were closely associated with the ratio of the sample size to the number of size classes in each sample. As a rule-of-thumb, a minimum sample size of 10 times the number of length classes in the sample is suggested because the precision deteriorates rapidly for smaller sample sizes. In absence of such a rule-of-thumb, samplers have previously under-estimated the required sample size for samples with large fish, while over-sampling small fish of the same species.