Grado de predicción del valor de las acciones ante nuevas emisiones en el sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia, mediante modelos de caos y análisis recurrente

El presente trabajo se enfoca en el análisis de las acciones de Ecopetrol, empresa representativa del mercado de Extracción de Petróleo y Gas natural en Colombia (SP&G), durante el periodo, del 22 de mayo de 2012 al 30 de agosto de 2013. Durante este espacio de tiempo la acción sufrió una serie de variaciones en su precio las cuales se relacionaban a la nueva emisión de acciones que realizo la Compañía. Debido a este cambio en el comportamiento del activo se generaron una serie de interrogantes sobre, (i) la reacción del mercado ante diferentes sucesos ocurridos dentro de las firmas y en su entorno (ii) la capacidad de los modelos financieros de predecir y entender las posibles reacciones observadas de los activos (entendidos como deuda). Durante el desarrollo del presente trabajo se estudiará la pertinencia del mismo, en línea con los objetivos y desarrollos de la Escuela de Administración de la Universidad del Rosario. Puntualmente en temas de Perdurabilidad direccionados a la línea de Gerencia. Donde el entendimiento de la deuda como parte del funcionamiento actual y como variable determinante para el comportamiento futuro de las organizaciones tiene especial importancia. Una vez se clarifica la relación entre el presente trabajo y la Universidad, se desarrollan diferentes conceptos y teorías financieras que han permitido conocer y estudiar de manera más específica el mercado, con el objetivo de reducir los riesgos de las inversiones realizadas. Éste análisis se desarrolla en dos partes: (i) modelos de tiempo discreto y (ii) modelos de tiempo continúo. Una vez se tiene mayor claridad sobre los modelos estudiados hasta el momento se realiza el respectivo análisis de los datos mediante modelos de caos y análisis recurrente los cuales nos permiten entender que las acciones se comportan de manera caótica pero que establecen ciertas relaciones entre los precios actuales y los históricos, desarrollando comportamientos definidos entre los precios, las cantidades, el entorno macroeconómico y la organización. De otra parte, se realiza una descripción del mercado de petróleo en Colombia y se estudia a Ecopetrol como empresa y eje principal del mercado descrito en el país. La compañía Ecopetrol es representativa debido a que es uno de los mayores aportantes fiscales del país, pues sus ingresos se desprenden de bienes que se encuentran en el subsuelo por lo que la renta petrolera incluye impuestos a la producción transformación y consumo (Ecopetrol, 2003). Por último, se presentan los resultados del trabajo, así como el análisis que da lugar para presentar ciertas recomendaciones a partir de lo observado.

Impacto de la venta de acciones en la salud financiera y el riesgo en los grupos financieros

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo general el análisis del impacto de la venta de acciones sobre la salud financiera y el riesgo en el grupo Aval. La necesidad por este estudio nace del interés por conocer los costos y beneficios que tienen las empresas a la hora de emitir acciones, siendo ésta última una práctica común en las últimas décadas. Algunas de las motivaciones relevantes para emitir acciones, son la financiación de nuevos proyectos de la empresa, el status que le pueda dar a la misma, una manera de hacer frente a la deuda, etc. Es importante conocer las implicaciones que tienen sobre la empresa la venta de acciones en términos de sus resultados, el impacto sobre los accionistas y sobre la misma sociedad. Esta investigación busca responder a la pregunta: ¿Cuál es el impacto de la venta de acciones sobre la salud financiera y el riesgo en los grupos financieros? Nos interesaremos por la revisión bibliográfica acerca de la salud financiera abordando autores que hablan de la misma desde el punto de vista de la posición de la empresa, refiriéndonos siempre a tres indicadores relevantes para el estudio y que son utilizados en la literatura para medir la salud financiera: liquidez, rentabilidad y endeudamiento. En la revisión de la literatura se ha encontrado una relación entre la salud financiera y el riesgo, por lo tanto buscaremos identificar cuál es el riesgo que afecta a las empresas cuando se emiten acciones centrándonos en tres tipos de riesgos financieros: riesgo de mercado, de interés y riesgo operacional; se ha escogido el grupo Aval para éste estudio ya que es uno de los grupos financieros más importantes en Colombia, con varios años de gestión y que actualmente realiza la práctica de emitir acciones.

Modelos de presupuestación de capital en finanzas corporativas y utilidad de los mismos

La siguiente investigación describe una aproximación teórica al tema de los modelos de presupuestación de capital, el objetivo fundamental se basa en comprender su enfoque e importancia al momento de tomar decisiones de inversión por parte de los directores de una empresa, así como de prever los efectos de esta en un futuro. Al respecto, y sobre la base de que los modelos de presupuestación de capital son herramientas para analizar posibles erogaciones de capital por parte de una empresa, es necesario para efectos del presente proyecto de investigación, definir sus diferentes modelos desde lo teórico y metodológico, explicando los diferentes conceptos relacionados con el tema. Así mismo, se explican algunos de los indicadores financieros utilizados en las compañías para medir y estimar la “salud financiera” de la empresa, además de puntualizar su impacto en la perdurabilidad de las entidades, lo cual permite dar una visión más general sobre la importancia que trasciende de los indicadores financieros, generando un impacto positivo en la evolución o crecimiento de la organización. En complemento, la investigación aborda la presupuestación de capital de manera particular aplicado en la gestión empresarial, sean estas privadas o públicas (estatal y gubernamental). En este sentido, se abordan conceptos elaborados por diferentes académicos en los que se exponen algunas aproximaciones respecto al posible mejoramiento de la presupuestación para los sectores a los que pertenecen determinadas entidades. Finalmente, se presenta de manera explícita las conclusiones que surgieron a lo largo de la construcción del documento de investigación, con el fin de dar cumplimiento concreto al objetivo general del trabajo, el cual constituye una respuesta a la pregunta de investigación que se enunciará en el desarrollo del documento.

Estimating sectoral cycles using cointegration and common features

This paper investigates the degree of short run and long run co-movement in U.S. sectoral output data by estimating sectoraI trends and cycles. A theoretical model based on Long and Plosser (1983) is used to derive a reduced form for sectoral output from first principles. Cointegration and common features (cycles) tests are performed; sectoral output data seem to share a relatively high number of common trends and a relatively low number of common cycles. A special trend-cycle decomposition of the data set is performed and the results indicate a very similar cyclical behavior across sectors and a very different behavior for trends. Indeed. sectors cyclical components appear as one. In a variance decomposition analysis, prominent sectors such as Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail Trade exhibit relatively important transitory shocks.

Marcas de supermercado

O estudo trata das marcas de propriedade de ou controladas por supermercados varejistas. São exploradas as características do composto mercadológico dos produtos sob essas marcas, as percepções dos consumidores relativas às mesmas, e as modificações no setor supermercadista que levaram-no ao desenvolvimento de suas próprias marcas.

Varejo multicanal: grau de integração e o varejo de livros no Brasil

Quando se comemora uma década da Internet comercial no Brasil, é consenso entre os estudiosos que ela não apenas chegou para ficar, mas principalmente, levou muitos negócios a adotarem novos canais, setores a repensarem seus enfoques e indicou novas formas de atender a seus clientes, além de ter provocado mudanças na gestão, operações e formulação de suas estratégias. Neste contexto delineia-se o principal objetivo deste estudo que é investigar o fenômeno da integração no varejo multicanal em empresas brasileiras do setor varejista direcionadas à comercialização de livros. Entende-se por varejo multicanal a disponibilização por parte das empresas de mais de um canal para que seus clientes possam realizar suas compras, com a predominância de lojas físicas e sites comerciais em ambiente Web. O estudo tem por objetivos específicos entender os propósitos das empresas estudadas na adoção do varejo multicanal em relação à estratégia de expansão, como as vantagens competitivas já existentes foram alavancadas com a integração da loja virtual, qual o grau de integração das atividades nos ambientes físico e virtual em relação à gestão, operações e mensuração e no que se refere às variáveis do composto varejista, procurando levantar como estão situadas nos diferentes estágios de integração. Para tanto o referencial teórico procurou adicionar ao conceito de Varejo Multicanal, os elementos dos conceitos consagrados de Estratégia de Crescimento, Unidade Estratégica de Negócios (UENs) e Sinergia. A pesquisa de caráter exploratório foi conduzida em três redes de livrarias com forte presença nacional. Os resultados encontrados mostram que as empresas estudadas conseguiram expandir seus negócios e alavancar suas vantagens competitivas, integrando de forma distinta a gestão, operações e mensuração, bem como as variáveis de seu composto varejista, situando-as em diferentes estágios de integração de seus canais físico e virtual.

Avaliação econômica das perdas de banana no mercado varejista: um estudo de caso

O objetivo do presente estudo foi a determinação das perdas físicas e econômicas de banana em diferentes equipamentos varejistas na Cidade de Botucatu - SP e suas possíveis causas. Os equipamentos foram sorteados aleatoriamente. As informações foram coletadas através da aplicação de questionário para a determinação das perdas de três variedades de banana. O resultado mostrou perda global de 39 toneladas, correspondente a 11,1% da quantidade comercializada, sendo 10,5% em supermercados, 15,0% em quitandas/sacolões e 10,6% em feiras livres. O valor total das perdas anuais atingiu R$ 35.038,00, em valores de maio de 2002. A manipulação excessiva do cliente, excedente de oferta, uso de embalagem inadequada e baixa qualidade da fruta foram as principais causas de perdas. Conclui-se pela necessidade de conscientização do cliente, do uso de embalagens plásticas e de cuidados no manuseio da fruta durante toda pós-colheita.

A dinâmica territorial do comércio varejista moderno da Zona Norte de Natal/RN

This work studies the territorial dynamics of the trade modern retailer in the North Zone of Natal/RN, undertaken by the expansion of that following of the tertiary section in the researched space. For so much, we accomplished bibliographical and documental research during whole the process of construction of the work and the field research based close to in interviews the responsible for the establishments of the modern retail and application of questionnaires with the residents and consumers of the area in subject. Leaving of the understanding that the territory is used by the society producing the movement of capitalist reproduction in the places, we inferred that the expansion of the modern retail in the North Zone has been promoting a new dynamics in your territory, fact that has been valuing the space and attracted investors to the place. Therefore, we organized the study in this dissertation in three chapters: the first, "North Zone: use and occupation of the soil ", brings us the process of historical and social formation of the North Zone inserted in the context of the urban expansion of Natal; the second chapter, " Expansion of the tertiary section: the growth of the modern retail trade in the North Zone", makes direct reference to the tertiary section and the expansion of the I trade modern retailer; and finally, the third surrender, " The territorial dynamics and the modern retail trade in the North Zone of Natal", in which we expose all the results of the field research, looking for to understand the territorial dynamics that the expansion of the modern retail trade has been producing in the study area

Ocorrência de bactérias do gênero Aeromonas em queijo-de-minas frescal artesanal

Foram analisadas 160 amostras de queijo-de-minas frescal artesanal, adquiridas no comércio varejista dos municípios de Poços de Caldas - MG e Jaboticabal - SP, a fim de verificar a ocorrência de bactérias do gênero Aeromonas no produto. Oitenta e duas (51,2%) encontravam-se contaminadas pelos microrganismos, com populações que variavam de 5,0×10³ a 4,0×10(5) UFC/grama. Foram identificadas as espécies Aeromonas hydrophila, Aeromonas caviae, Aeromonas schubertii, além de cepas consideradas atípicas. Os resultados evidenciam que bactérias do gênero Aeromonas podem ser veiculadas através do queijo tipo minas frescal artesanal e devem servir de alerta aos serviços de saúde pública.

Tipificação das famílias de oito assentamentos rurais da região de Andradina (SP), com base em diferentes estratégias de produção e comercialização

This article intends to provide a typology of the families that are settled in the region of Andradina (Sao Paulo state), according to the main production and commercialization systems and to the presence (or not) of agricultural income diversification. The empiric data used to form the groups originate from socioeconomic questionnaires that had been applied to 169 families of eight rural settlements and also from 80 interviews. The groups were compared with each other, starting from the family's profile; patrimony; credit and technical support; self-consumption production; and the lot's external income. The strategy to increase the production and the productivity (dairy cattle) is limited to less than a quarter of the producers, however different strategies had been used by families, such as the diversification of the agricultural income and the direct sale to the consumer or to the retail trade. The association of the production diversification with the use, in a regular way, of differentiated channels of commercialization demonstrated a strategy capable to approximate the indicators of this type of producer comparing with those that focused on increasing the production and the productivity. This verification is important because, even though there is no necessary contradiction among both strategies, a part of the families does not have resources, infrastructure and/or technical qualification to follow the way of the productive intensification and others do not have this project as a priority.

Qualidade microbiológica e ocorrência de leveduras em leite pasteurizado tipos A, B e C

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Qualidade higiênico-sanitária de lingüiças frescais comercializadas em Botucatu, SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

As franquias e as novas estratégias do comércio urbano no Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Essays on Wage and Price Formation in Sweden

Study IReal Wage Determination in the Swedish Engineering Industry This study uses the monopoly union model to examine the determination of real wages and in particular the effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) on real wages in the engineering industry. Quarterly data for the period 1970:1 to 1996:4 are used in a cointegration framework, utilising the Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. On a basis of the Johansen (trace) test results, vector error correction (VEC) models are created in order to model the determination of real wages in the engineering industry. The estimation results support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect to rises in the labour productivity, in the tax wedge, in the alternative real consumer wage and in real UI benefits. The estimation results also support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect due to positive changes in the participation rates regarding ALMPs, relief jobs and labour market training. This could be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of being a participant in an ALMP increases the utility for workers of not being employed in the industry, which in turn could increase real wages in the industry in the long run. Finally, the estimation results show evidence of a long-run wage-reducing effect due to positive changes in the unemployment rate. Study IIIntersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects the wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition affects the wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. The adaptability of wages between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate considerable adaptability in wages as between manufacturing, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is consistent with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Further, the empirical results indicate a low level of adaptability in wages as between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors. Study IIIWage and Price Determination in the Private Sector in Sweden The purpose of this study is to analyse wage and price determination in the private sector in Sweden during the period 1980–2003. The theoretical background is a variant of the “Imperfect competition model of inflation”, which assumes imperfect competition in the labour and product markets. According to the model wages and prices are determined as a result of a “battle of mark-ups” between trade unions and firms. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly Swedish data on consumer prices, import prices, private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity and the total unemployment rate for the period 1980:1–2003:3. The chosen cointegration rank of the estimated vector error correction (VEC) model is two. Thus, two cointegration relations are assumed: one for private-sector nominal wage determination and one for consumer price determination. The estimation results indicate that an increase of consumer prices by one per cent lifts private-sector nominal wages by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, an increase of private-sector nominal wages by one per cent increases consumer prices by one per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the total unemployment rate reduces private-sector nominal wages by about 4.5 per cent. The long-run effects of private-sector labour productivity and import prices on consumer prices are about –1.2 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The Rehnberg agreement during 1991–92 and the monetary policy shift in 1993 affected the determination of private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity, import prices and the total unemployment rate. The “offensive” devaluation of the Swedish krona by 16 per cent in 1982:4, and the start of a floating Swedish krona and the substantial depreciation of the krona at this time affected the determination of import prices.

Analytical methods for evaluating the quality and the genuineness of olive oils

This Ph.D. thesis focuses on the investigation of some chemical and sensorial analytical parameters linked to the quality and purity of different categories of oils obtained by olives: extra virgin olive oils, both those that are sold in the large retail trade (supermarkets and discounts) and those directly collected at some Italian mills, and lower-quality oils (refined, lampante and “repaso”). Concurrently with the adoption of traditional and well-known analytical procedures such as gas chromatography and high-performance liquid chromatography, I carried out a set-up of innovative, fast and environmentally-friend methods. For example, I developed some analytical approaches based on Fourier transform medium infrared spectroscopy (FT-MIR) and time domain reflectometry (TDR), coupled with a robust chemometric elaboration of the results. I investigated some other freshness and quality markers that are not included in official parameters (in Italian and European regulations): the adoption of such a full chemical and sensorial analytical plan allowed me to obtain interesting information about the degree of quality of the EVOOs, mostly within the Italian market. Here the range of quality of EVOOs resulted very wide, in terms of sensory attributes, price classes and chemical parameters. Thanks to the collaboration with other Italian and foreign research groups, I carried out several applicative studies, especially focusing on the shelf-life of oils obtained by olives and on the effects of thermal stresses on the quality of the products. I also studied some innovative technological treatments, such as the clarification by using inert gases, as an alternative to the traditional filtration. Moreover, during a three-and-a-half months research stay at the University of Applied Sciences in Zurich, I also carried out a study related to the application of statistical methods for the elaboration of sensory results, obtained thanks to the official Swiss Panel and to some consumer tests.