Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Strategic mass killings

Since World War II there have been about fifty episodes of large-scale mass killings of civilians and massive forced displacements. They were usually meticulously planned and independent of military goals. We provide a model where conflict onset, conflict intensity and the decision to commit mass killings are all endogenous, with two main goals: (1) to identify the key variables and situations that make mass killings more likely to occur; and (2) to distinguish conditions under which mass killings and military conflict intensity reinforce each other from situations where they are substitute modes of strategic violence. We predict that mass killings are most likely in societies with large natural resources, significant proportionality constraints for rent sharing, low productivity and low state capacity. Further, massacres are more likely in a civil than in an interstate war, as in the latter group sizes matter less for future rents. In non polarized societies there are asymmetric equilibria with only the larger group wanting to engage in massacres. In such settings the smaller group compensates for this by fighting harder in the first place. In this case we can talk of mass killings and fighting efforts to be substitutes. In contrast, in polarized societies either both or none of the groups can be ready to do mass killings in case of victory. Under the "shadow of mass killings" groups fight harder. Hence, in this case massacres and fighting are complements. We also present novel empirical results on the role of natural resources in mass killings and on what kinds of ethnic groups are most likely to be victimized in massacres and forced resettlements, using group level panel data.

Crecimiento, instituciones e hidrocarburos : el proyecto petrolero mexicano en perspectiva histórica comparada (1938-2000)

En este trabajo se analiza la política petrolera mexicana durante el período 1938-2000 y su aportación al crecimiento económico mexicano. La orientación de la producción petrolera permite distinguir dos modelos de gestión de la industria petrolera. El primero de ellos; entre 1938-1976 tuvo por finalidad el aprovisionamiento energético del mercado interior a bajos precios. El segundo a partir de 1976 orientado hacia la exportación y la captura de la renta petrolera internacional. Esta ruptura en la política petrolera asociada constituye un caso interesante en sí mismo porque permite comparar los efectos de dos políticas totalmente opuestas sobre el crecimiento económico y sobre el desempeño de la propia industria petrolera en un país donde el Estado tiene derechos de propiedad exclusivos sobre el sector petrolero. Por ello, se aborda el tema como una problemática institucional que toma en cuenta tanto las características internas de México como la dinámica del mercado petrolero internacional. Se incide en el hecho de que el Estado mexicano ha utilizado a la industria petrolera y; concretamente los recursos que ésta genera no sólo como un instrumento para favorecer el crecimiento económico del país sino también para mantener el control del poder político frente a la élite económica. Así el inmovilismo institucional; la falta de ingresos e inversiones propias y el comportamiento rentista del Estado parecen haber condenado al sector petrolero mexicano al atraso y la ineficiencia. De este modo; se focaliza en las interrelaciones entre las instituciones económicas y políticas como elemento explicativo del por qué la industria petrolera no ha logrado convertirse en un elemento dinamizador del crecimiento económico mexicano en el largo plazo.

Serum-Mediane von Placentaprotein-Markern: Relevanz der Unterschiede zwischen spontanen und nach-in-vitro-Fertilisation eingetretenen Schwangerschaften für das fetale Trisomie-Screening.

Trisomy-21 (Down syndrome) is the most frequent chromosomal abnorm- ality but only one third of cases would be detected by amniocentesis based on maternal age alone. Serum screening tests in the early second trimester increase the detec- tion rate to 60-65%, and more recently it was found that such screening was also possible in the first trimester by quantifying a diffe- rent panel of markers. The concen- trations of these placental proteins are strongly dependent on gestatio- nal age; thus control medians must be established and precise dating is essential. Serum chorionic gonado- trophin (HCG) levels were recently found to be increased in IVF preg- nancies compared to spontaneous gestations, leading to a falsely ele- vated trisomy screening risk. The aim of this preliminary study was to find out whether, in the first-trime- ster screening, the markers similarly differed between IVF and spontane- ous pregnancies which would call for the establishment of separate normal medians for IVF patients. We compared 24 pregnancies ob- tained after ovarian stimulation and IVF with six women after thawed embryo transfer (unstimulated cycle) and 63 gestation- and maternal-age matched spontaneously pregnant controls. A single serum was ob- tained between 6 and 16 weeks of gestation and various placental protein levels determined by im- munometric assays. Serum levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), which is the major marker in the first-trimes- ter screening test, were reduced in IVF pregnancies: after 9 weeks of gestation, multiples of median (MoMs) ranged between 0.23 and 3.58 (logarithmic mean 0.743). For the frozen/thawed transfers, this value was 1.08. In the 9-12 week group containing 6 cases of IVF, three thawed transfers and 25 con- trols, PAPP-A was significantly redu- ced in the stimulated compared to the nonstimulated cycles. In the late first and early second trimester the difference was not significant in our small group but the trend persisted. Pregnancies after IVF will thus show an increased incidence of false positive results in fetal trisomy-21 screening, and special medians should be established for these pati- ents.

Welfare Maximizing Contest Success Functions when the Planner Cannot Commit

We analyze how a contest organizer chooses optimally the winner when the contestants' efforts are already exerted and commitment to the use of a given contest success function is not possible. We de…ne the notion of rationalizability in mixed-strategies to capture such a situation. Our approach allows to derive different contest success functions depending on the aims and attitudes of the decider. We derive contest success functions which are closely related to commonly used functions providing new support for them. By taking into account social welfare considerations our approach bridges the contest literature and the recent literature on political economy. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function, Mixed-Strategies. JEL Classi…cation: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances)

Decentralization of contracts with interim sidecontracting

This paper gives a new explanation for the phenomena of subcontracting. A model in which a principal contracts two agents who work in a sequence on a project, have soft information and can collude is considered. Side-contracts between agents can be signed at any stage of the game. Due to limited liability and moral hazard agents obtain a rent. The principal’s problem is to find the preferable contracting structure. It is shown that in this setting a decentralized contracting structure can be superior to a centralized structure for the principal. The paper derives the conditions under which this holds. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D23, D82, L14, L22. Keywords: Contract delegation, Collusion, Interim side-contracting, Moral hazard.

Community Education Needs to be Supported by Strong Public Policy to Tackle Food Poverty

Community education needs to be supported by strong public policy if it is to be fully effective at tackling food poverty and obesity, a project evaluation by the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) has found. In its evaluation of Decent Food for All (DFfA) - a major project to improve community diet and health - IPH found that where people live and shop had a greater impact on their diet than their own individual awareness and attitudes. Access Tackling Food Poverty: lessons from the Decent Food for All intervention at www.publichealth.ie DFfA was funded by safefood (the Food Safety Promotion Board) and the Food Standards Agency Northern Ireland. The project lasted four years and included hundreds of community education activities designed to improve diet in poorer parts of Armagh and South Tyrone. safefood commissioned IPH to undertake the evaluation of DFfA. Dr. Kevin Balanda, IPH Associate Director, said 'The aim of the project was to reduce food poverty (this is defined as not being able to consume adequate healthy food) and improve health in the target communities. DFfA delivered over 370 core activities to 3,100 residents including local education talks on diet, cookery workshops, fresh fruit in schools, healthy food tastings and information stands. One in eight residents in the target areas participated in at least one of these activities.' The evaluation found that over 1 in 5 adults in the target areas reported they had cut their weekly food spending in the last six months to pay other household bills such as rent, electricity and gas. During the four years of the DFfA activities, this percentage had not changed significantly. There were mixed changes in the nature of food in local stores. While the overall availability and price of food increased, both ﾓhealthierﾔ food and ﾓunhealthierﾔ food were included in that increase. It was only in the larger ﾓmultiple/discount freezerﾔ type of shops that the overall price of food had decreased.

Aerotropolis: an aviation-linked space

This paper examines the conditions allowing the formation of aeropolitan areas as large industrial areas with a high concentration of commercial activities in the proximity of selected airports. We assume that firms deliver their production by plane and land competition takes place among service operators, firms and farmers. Service operators supply facilities that firms can absorb. Our framework identifies a unique land equilibrium characterized by the spatial sequence Airport - Industrial park - Rural area (A-I-R). Aerotropolis-type configurations are associated with the level of transport costs and the degree of intensity of facilities. Keywords: aerotropolis; facilities; bid-rent function. JEL Classification Numbers: L29; L90; R14.

Recursos naturales y desarrollo en el Chad: ¿maldición de los recursos o inserción periférica?

El significativo incremento de las inversiones extranjeras en el sector extractivo africano en la última década, ha hecho renacer el debate acerca de los efectos sobre el desarrollo de las rentas generadas por este sector. Desde la teoría de la maldición de los recursos se argumenta que los efectos negativos sobre el desarrollo de estas rentas tienen que ver básicamente con disfunciones internas, soslayando los elementos y actores externos que dan forma e influyen en éstas. El caso del Chad, país productor de petróleo desde 2003 con el apoyo del Banco Mundial, es presentado y analizado en este artículo, llegando a la conclusión de que el análisis de la inserción periférica es crucial para comprender las disfunciones generadas por la renta petrolera en el país.

Garden to Plate

North Tipperary Food Partnership aims to improve access to healthy food and build community and skills through food growing initiatives. `The Garden to Plate` project was set up as part of Nenagh Community Allotments, a voluntary group who lease a site privately containing up to 20 allotments and a communal green house. The North Tipperary VEC Community Education and Back to Education Initiative Projects rent two allotments from NCA offering a certified learning opportunity and generating a space for the wider benefits of learning. The adults engaged are mainly men both recently and long term unemployed with a range of skills and experiences. A small study has been conducted with participants to identify feedback on skills and knowledge gained including those related to health and nutrition. A report is available. North Tipperary Leader Services, VEC Initiative Type Community Food Growing Projects Location Tipperary Funding North Tipperary Leader Services, VEC Partner Agencies NTLS/VEC/HSE/NCA/Council

Comunicación paciente-médico y toma de decisiones en salud en Andalucía. Expectativas de pacientes crónicos del Sistema Sanitario Público Andaluz

The purpose of the study was to know about the expectations had by chronic patients within th e Public Healthcare System in Andalusi a, concerning commu nication and making deci sions with the med ical professionals who take care of them duri ng the entire treatment process. A qualitative study was carried out in Andalusia, based on 19 i n-depth interviews and 17 focus groups with 15 4 chronic patients and their relatives, suffering from seven different types of illness, of which the content was later analyzed based on the type of disease (pathologies), and the level of care (Primary, Sp eci aliz ed or Em ergen cy Ser vices). The study shows that patients i ncl uded in all healthcare processes want information about their illness. In Primary Care, they value continued attention, closeness and trust as well as being referred to a proper specialist. In Specialized Care, they expect to receive trustworthy information, proper tests and a correct diagnosis, friendly treatment and to be listened to. In the Emergency Room, lack of tim e and overcrowding d i sru pt proper communic ation. The type of chronic illne ss i nfluenc es patients’ expectations in terms of communication and decisionmaking. Communic ation between patients and medical personnel and the decision-making process related to chronic illness are crucial for the improvement of the qualit y o f healthcare. The type of chr onic disease marks diffe rent expectation s about the communication and decision-making. The communication and the decision making in the chronic assistance is a priority to improve the quality of the assistance

How to Measure Scope Variables when no Metrics Exist : Application to Landscape Quality Measurement and Hedonic Price Evaluation

Landscape is an example of a non-market good where no metrics exist to measure its quality. The paper proposes an original methodology to nevertheless estimate scope variables in those circumstances, allowing then to better test if people's willingnesstopay for such good is sensitive to the scope. The methodology is based on techniques developed in the context of multicriteria decision analysis. It is applied to assess the quality of the landscape of several Swiss alpine resorts. This assessment is then used as an explanatory variable in a hedonic price function to explain the rent of apartments and to derive an implicit price of the landscape quality.

Adverse selection, moral hazard, and outlier payment policy

In this article, we analyze the rationale for introducing outlier payments into a prospective payment system for hospitals under adverse selection and moral hazard. The payer has only two instruments: a fixed price for patients whose treatment cost is below a threshold and a cost-sharing rule for outlier patients. We show that a fixed-price policy is optimal when the hospital is sufficiently benevolent. When the hospital is weakly benevolent, a mixed policy solving a trade-off between rent extraction, efficiency, and dumping deterrence must be preferred. We show how the optimal combination of fixed price and partially cost-based payment depends on the degree of benevolence of the hospital, the social cost of public funds, and the distribution of patients severity. [Authors]

Elokuvien levittäminen Internetissä

Movie distribution on the Internet has become more common in recent years along with fast broadband internet connections. The problem so far has been that the greatest part of movie distribution on the Internet has been illegal. This is about to change because the major film distributors are finally starting to rent and sell movies more and more on the Internet due to their growing confidence in new copy protection methods. The importance of movie online distribution to the movie industry is still tiny but it is increasing rapidly as is investing in new business models and distribution methods in the USA and Europe. This thesis examines the basic concepts of online movie distribution, such as distribution techniques and copy protection, the main companies that rent and sell movies on the internet and their business models, the effects of movie piracy and non-commercial distribution channels. The intention was to provide the reader with an overview of different aspects of movie distribution on the Internet and its future. The conclusion was that movie distribution on the Internet will play a bigger financial part in the future although it was still too early to say just how significant that will be. We will probably see many corresponding distribution techniques, like peer-to-peer networks and streaming servers distributing and broadcasting movies to different end-user platforms like television, PC and portable media players. Internet distribution of movies will not revolutionize movie distribution in the next couple of years but it will make possible new efficient and inexpensive ways to distribute movies globally which will in turn increase the possibilities for revenue, especially for small independent movie producers and distributors.