Inter- and intraobserver reliability of the COFAS end-stage ankle arthritis classification system

End-stage ankle arthritis should have an appropriate classification to assist surgeons in the management of end-stage ankle arthritis. Outcomes research also requires a classification system to stratify patients appropriately.

Online distribution management framework by incorporating wind generation

In distribution system operations, dispatchers at control center closely monitor system operating limits to ensure system reliability and adequacy. This reliability is partly due to the provision of remote controllable tie and sectionalizing switches. While the stochastic nature of wind generation can impact the level of wind energy penetration in the network, an estimate of the output from wind on hourly basis can be extremely useful. Under any operating conditions, the switching actions require human intervention and can be an extremely stressful task. Currently, handling a set of switching combinations with the uncertainty of distributed wind generation as part of the decision variables has been nonexistent. This thesis proposes a three-fold online management framework: (1) prediction of wind speed, (2) estimation of wind generation capacity, and (3) enumeration of feasible switching combinations. The proposed methodology is evaluated on 29-node test system with 8 remote controllable switches and two wind farms of 18MW and 9MW nameplate capacities respectively for generating the sequence of system reconfiguration states during normal and emergency conditions.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

EVALUATING INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE TO ASSIST FACILITY MANAGEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.

Energy-Efficient Management Of Heterogeneous Wireless Sensor Networks

Various applications for the purposes of event detection, localization, and monitoring can benefit from the use of wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Wireless sensor networks are generally easy to deploy, with flexible topology and can support diversity of tasks thanks to the large variety of sensors that can be attached to the wireless sensor nodes. To guarantee the efficient operation of such a heterogeneous wireless sensor networks during its lifetime an appropriate management is necessary. Typically, there are three management tasks, namely monitoring, (re) configuration, and code updating. On the one hand, status information, such as battery state and node connectivity, of both the wireless sensor network and the sensor nodes has to be monitored. And on the other hand, sensor nodes have to be (re)configured, e.g., setting the sensing interval. Most importantly, new applications have to be deployed as well as bug fixes have to be applied during the network lifetime. All management tasks have to be performed in a reliable, time- and energy-efficient manner. The ability to disseminate data from one sender to multiple receivers in a reliable, time- and energy-efficient manner is critical for the execution of the management tasks, especially for code updating. Using multicast communication in wireless sensor networks is an efficient way to handle such traffic pattern. Due to the nature of code updates a multicast protocol has to support bulky traffic and endto-end reliability. Further, the limited resources of wireless sensor nodes demand an energy-efficient operation of the multicast protocol. Current data dissemination schemes do not fulfil all of the above requirements. In order to close the gap, we designed the Sensor Node Overlay Multicast (SNOMC) protocol such that to support a reliable, time-efficient and energy-efficient dissemination of data from one sender node to multiple receivers. In contrast to other multicast transport protocols, which do not support reliability mechanisms, SNOMC supports end-to-end reliability using a NACK-based reliability mechanism. The mechanism is simple and easy to implement and can significantly reduce the number of transmissions. It is complemented by a data acknowledgement after successful reception of all data fragments by the receiver nodes. In SNOMC three different caching strategies are integrated for an efficient handling of necessary retransmissions, namely, caching on each intermediate node, caching on branching nodes, or caching only on the sender node. Moreover, an option was included to pro-actively request missing fragments. SNOMC was evaluated both in the OMNeT++ simulator and in our in-house real-world testbed and compared to a number of common data dissemination protocols, such as Flooding, MPR, TinyCubus, PSFQ, and both UDP and TCP. The results showed that SNOMC outperforms the selected protocols in terms of transmission time, number of transmitted packets, and energy-consumption. Moreover, we showed that SNOMC performs well with different underlying MAC protocols, which support different levels of reliability and energy-efficiency. Thus, SNOMC can offer a robust, high-performing solution for the efficient distribution of code updates and management information in a wireless sensor network. To address the three management tasks, in this thesis we developed the Management Architecture for Wireless Sensor Networks (MARWIS). MARWIS is specifically designed for the management of heterogeneous wireless sensor networks. A distinguished feature of its design is the use of wireless mesh nodes as backbone, which enables diverse communication platforms and offloading functionality from the sensor nodes to the mesh nodes. This hierarchical architecture allows for efficient operation of the management tasks, due to the organisation of the sensor nodes into small sub-networks each managed by a mesh node. Furthermore, we developed a intuitive -based graphical user interface, which allows non-expert users to easily perform management tasks in the network. In contrast to other management frameworks, such as Mate, MANNA, TinyCubus, or code dissemination protocols, such as Impala, Trickle, and Deluge, MARWIS offers an integrated solution monitoring, configuration and code updating of sensor nodes. Integration of SNOMC into MARWIS further increases performance efficiency of the management tasks. To our knowledge, our approach is the first one, which offers a combination of a management architecture with an efficient overlay multicast transport protocol. This combination of SNOMC and MARWIS supports reliably, time- and energy-efficient operation of a heterogeneous wireless sensor network.

Psychoendocrine validation of a short measure for assessment of perceived stress management skills in different non-clinical populations

BACKGROUND: We investigated the psychometric properties of a short questionnaire for combined assessment of different perceived stress management skills in the general population and tested whether scores relate to physiological stress reactivity. METHODS: For psychometric evaluation, we determined the factor structure of the questionnaire and investigated its measurement invariance in the participant groups and over time in three different independent samples representing the general population (total N=332). Reliability was tested by estimating test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and item reliabilities. We examined convergent and criterion validity using selected criterion variables. For endocrine validation, 35 healthy non-smoking and medication-free men in a laboratory study and 35 male and female employees in a workplace study underwent an acute standardized psychosocial stress task. We assessed stress management skills and measured salivary cortisol before and several times up to 60 min (workplace study) and 120 min (laboratory study) after stress. Potential confounders were controlled. RESULTS: The factor structure of the questionnaire consists of five scales reflecting acceptably distinct stress management skills such as cognitive strategies, use of social support, relaxation strategies, anger regulation, and perception of bodily tension. This factor structure was stable across participant groups and over time. Internal consistencies, item reliabilities, and test-retest reliabilities met established statistical requirements. Convergent and criterion validity were also established. In both endocrine validation studies, higher stress management skills were independently associated with lower cortisol stress reactivity (p's<.029). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the questionnaire has good psychometric properties and that it relates to subjective psychological and objective physiological stress indicators. Therefore, the instrument seems a suitable measure for differential assessment of stress management skills in the general population.

Reliability of operational data from pig herds and performance ratings by veterinarians and pig farmers collected during telephone interviews for the evaluation of a PCV2 piglet vaccination

BackgroundThe aim of the present study was to evaluate the feasibility of using a telephone survey in gaining an understanding of the possible herd and management factors influencing the performance (i.e. safety and efficacy) of a vaccine against porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) in a large number of herds and to estimate customers¿ satisfaction.ResultsDatasets from 227 pig herds that currently applied or have applied a PCV2 vaccine were analysed. Since 1-, 2- and 3-site production systems were surveyed, the herds were allocated in one of two subsets, where only applicable variables out of 180 were analysed. Group 1 was comprised of herds with sows, suckling pigs and nursery pigs, whereas herds in Group 2 in all cases kept fattening pigs. Overall 14 variables evaluating the subjective satisfaction with one particular PCV2 vaccine were comingled to an abstract dependent variable for further models, which was characterized by a binary outcome from a cluster analysis: good/excellent satisfaction (green cluster) and moderate satisfaction (red cluster). The other 166 variables comprised information about diagnostics, vaccination, housing, management, were considered as independent variables. In Group 1, herds using the vaccine due to recognised PCV2 related health problems (wasting, mortality or porcine dermatitis and nephropathy syndrome) had a 2.4-fold increased chance (1/OR) of belonging to the green cluster. In the final model for Group 1, the diagnosis of diseases other than PCV2, the reason for vaccine administration being other than PCV2-associated diseases and using a single injection of iron had significant influence on allocating into the green cluster (P¿<¿0.05). In Group 2, only unchanged time or delay of time of vaccination influenced the satisfaction (P¿<¿0.05).ConclusionThe methodology and statistical approach used in this study were feasible to scientifically assess ¿satisfaction¿, and to determine factors influencing farmers¿ and vets¿ opinion about the safety and efficacy of a new vaccine.

Self -management behavior in patients with cystic fibrosis

Self-management is being promoted in cystic fibrosis (CF). However, it has not been well studied. Principal aims of this research were (1) to evaluate psychometric properties of a CF disease status measure, the NIH Clinical Score; (2) to develop and validate a measure of self-management behavior, the SMQ-CF scale, and (3) to examine the relation between self-management and disease status in CF patients over two years.^ In study 1, NIH Clinical Scores for 200 patients were used. The scale was examined for internal consistency, interrater reliability, and content validity using factor analysis. The Cronbach's alpha (.81) and interrater reliability (.90) for the total scale were high. General scale items were less reliable. Factor analysis indicated that most of the variance in disease status is accounted for by Factor 1 which consists of pulmonary disease items.^ The SMQ-CF measures the performance of CF self-management. Pilot testing was done with 98 CF primary caregivers. Internal consistency reliability, social desirability bias, and content validity using factor analysis were examined. Internal consistency was good (alpha =.95). Social desirability correlation was low (r =.095). Twelve factors identified were consistent with conceptual groupings of behaviors. Around two hundred caregivers from two CF centers were surveyed and multivariate analysis of variance was used to assess construct validity. Results confirmed expected relations between self-management, patient age, and disease status. Patient age accounted for 50% and disease status 18% of the variance in the SMQ-CF scale.^ It was hypothesized that self-management would positively affect future disease status. Data from 199 CF patients (control and education intervention groups) were examined. Models of hypothesized relations were tested using LISREL structural equation modeling. Results indicated that the relations between baseline self-management and Time 1 disease status were not significant. Significant relations were observed in self-management behaviors from time 1 to time 2 and patterns of significant relations differed between the two groups.^ This research has contributed to refinements in the ability to measure self-management behavior and disease status outcomes in cystic fibrosis. In addition, it provides the first steps in exploratory behavioral analysis with regard to self-management in this disease. ^

Reliability issues related to the usage of Cloud Computing in Critical Infrastructures

The use of cloud computing is extending to all kind of systems, including the ones that are part of Critical Infrastructures, and measuring the reliability is becoming more difficult. Computing is becoming the 5th utility, in part thanks to the use of cloud services. Cloud computing is used now by all types of systems and organizations, including critical infrastructure, creating hidden inter-dependencies on both public and private cloud models. This paper investigates the use of cloud computing by critical infrastructure systems, the reliability and continuity of services risks associated with their use by critical systems. Some examples are presented of their use by different critical industries, and even when the use of cloud computing by such systems is not widely extended, there is a future risk that this paper presents. The concepts of macro and micro dependability and the model we introduce are useful for inter-dependency definition and for analyzing the resilience of systems that depend on other systems, specifically in the cloud model.

Methodological Proposal for Teamwork Evaluation in the field of training Project Management.

Teamwork, is one of the abilities that today is highly valued in the professional arena with a great importance for various personal and interpersonal skills associated with it. In this context, the Technical University of Madrid, is developing a coordinated educational innovation project, which main objective is to develop methodological and assessment tools for the acquisition of personal skills necessary to improve the employability of graduates and their skills for project management. Within this context, this paper proposes a methodology composed of various activities and indicators, as well as specific assessment instruments linked to the teamwork competence. Through a series of systematic steps it was allowed the design of an instrument and construction of a scale for measuring the competence of teamwork. The practical application of the methodology has been carried out in Projects lectures from different Schools of Engineering at the Technical University of Madrid, which results are presented in this document as a pilot experience. Results show the various aspects and methods that teachers should consider in evaluating the competence of the work, including analysis of the quality of results, through reliability and construct validity. On the other hand, show the advantages of applying this methodology in the field of project management teaching.

Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions

From the water management perspective, water scarcity is an unacceptable risk of facing water shortages to serve water demands in the near future. Water scarcity may be temporary and related to drought conditions or other accidental situation, or may be permanent and due to deeper causes such as excessive demand growth, lack of infrastructure for water storage or transport, or constraints in water management. Diagnosing the causes of water scarcity in complex water resources systems is a precondition to adopt effective drought risk management actions. In this paper we present four indices which have been developed to evaluate water scarcity. We propose a methodology for interpretation of index values that can lead to conclusions about the reliability and vulnerability of systems to water scarcity, as well as to diagnose their possible causes and to propose solutions. The described methodology was applied to the Ebro river basin, identifying existing and expected problems and possible solutions. System diagnostics, based exclusively on the analysis of index values, were compared with the known reality as perceived by system managers, validating the conclusions in all cases

Reliability of a 13000-SHS photovoltaic rural electrification programme

In this paper, a reliability analysis of a photovoltaic rural electrification (PVRE) programme is proposed considering the failures in the 13 000 installed Solar Home System (SHS) devices occurring over a long operating period of 5 years. A previous arrangement of the database and a brief explanation of the reliability concepts will serve to introduce the failure distribution of every component, from which the SHS lifetime operating features will be described. An application example will show the usefulness of the obtained results in the forecasting of spare parts during the maintenance period. The conclusions of this study may be useful in the scientific design of PVRE programme maintenance structures, with the goal of shedding some light on the technical management mechanisms in decentralised rural electrification.

The NACIR Project: New Applications for CPV'S: A fast way to improve reliability and Technology progress

The main goal of this proposal is to join together the owners of the most advanced CPV technology, with respect to the state of the art, in order to research from its leading position new applications for CPV systems. In addition to opening up new markets, it will unveil possible sources of failure in new environments outside Europe, in order to assure component reliability. The proposed project will also try to improve the current technology of the industrial partners (ISOFOTON and CONCENTRIX) by accelerating the learning curve that CPV must follow in order to reach the competitive market, and lowering the cost under the current flat panel PV significantly within 3-4 years. The use of CPV systems in remote areas, together with harsher radiation, ambient and infrastructure conditions will help to increase the rate of progress of this technology. In addition, the ISFOC s contribution, which brings together seven power plants from seven CPV technologies up to 3 MWpeak, will allow creating the most complete database of components and systems performance to be generated as well as the effects of radiation and meteorology on systems operations. Finally, regarding the new applications for CPV subject, the project will use a CPV system sized 25 kWp in a stand-alone station in Egypt (NWRC) for the first time for water pumping and irrigation purposes. In a similar way ISOFOTON will connect up to 25 kWp CPV to the Moroccan ONE utility grid. From the research content point of view of this project, which is directly addressed by the scope of the call, the cooperative research between UPM, FhG-ISE and the two companies will be favoured by the fact that all are progressing in similar directions: developing two-stage optics CPV systems. In addition to these technology improvements the UPM is very interested in developing a new concept of module, recently patented, which will fulfil all required characteristics of a good CPV with less components and reducing cost.

Reliability and quality in the area of statistical thinking in Engineering

There is remarkable growing concern about the quality control at the time, which has led to the search for methods capable of addressing effectively the reliability analysis as part of the Statistic. Managers, researchers and Engineers must understand that 'statistical thinking' is not just a set of statistical tools. They should start considering 'statistical thinking' from a 'system', which means, developing systems that meet specific statistical tools and other methodologies for an activity. The aim of this article is to encourage them (engineers, researchers and managers) to develop a new way of thinking.

Reliability issues and cost structure in the 13000 SHS rural electrification programme in Morocco

Operalion and mainlenance (O&M) casi 01 solar home syslems (SHS) in pholovollaie rural electrification (PVRE) programmes is a key factor in the economic viability and long lerm suslainability. This paper reports on a 13000 inslalled SHSs programme carried oul in Moroceo. Il is presenled Ihe reliability analysis 01 Ihe SHSs as well as the distribution of real cests of installation, O&M and management to oblain respeclively Ihe reliability lunelions 01 Ihe SHS componenls and lo eharaclerize the overall programme cast structure.