Emulation of random output simulators

Computer models, or simulators, are widely used in a range of scientific fields to aid understanding of the processes involved and make predictions. Such simulators are often computationally demanding and are thus not amenable to statistical analysis. Emulators provide a statistical approximation, or surrogate, for the simulators accounting for the additional approximation uncertainty. This thesis develops a novel sequential screening method to reduce the set of simulator variables considered during emulation. This screening method is shown to require fewer simulator evaluations than existing approaches. Utilising the lower dimensional active variable set simplifies subsequent emulation analysis. For random output, or stochastic, simulators the output dispersion, and thus variance, is typically a function of the inputs. This work extends the emulator framework to account for such heteroscedasticity by constructing two new heteroscedastic Gaussian process representations and proposes an experimental design technique to optimally learn the model parameters. The design criterion is an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic variance models. Replicated observations are efficiently handled in both the design and model inference stages. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic and real world simulators, the emulators inferred on optimal designs with replicated observations are shown to outperform equivalent models inferred on space-filling replicate-free designs in terms of both model parameter uncertainty and predictive variance.

A Random Evolution Inclusion of Subdifferential Type in Hilbert Spaces

In this paper we study a nonlinear evolution inclusion of subdifferential type in Hilbert spaces. The perturbation term is Hausdorff continuous in the state variable and has closed but not necessarily convex values. Our result is a stochastic generalization of an existence theorem proved by Kravvaritis and Papageorgiou in [6].

The association of HIV counseling and testing with HIV risk behaviors in a random population-based survey in Kisumu, Kenya.

HIV testing has been promoted as a key HIV prevention strategy in low-resource settings, despite studies showing variable impact on risk behavior. We sought to examine rates of HIV testing and the association between testing and sexual risk behaviors in Kisumu, Kenya. Participants were interviewed about HIV testing and sexual risk behaviors. They then underwent HIV serologic testing. We found that 47% of women and 36% of men reported prior testing. Two-thirds of participants who tested HIV-positive in this study reported no prior HIV test. Women who had undergone recent testing were less likely to report high-risk behaviors than women who had never been tested; this was not seen among men. Although rates of HIV testing were higher than seen in previous studies, the majority of HIV-infected people were unaware of their status. Efforts should be made to increase HIV testing among this population.

Splitting of a prevalent Mycobacterium bovis spoligotype by variable-number tandem-repeat typing reveals high heterogeneity in an evolving clonal group

Mycobacterium bovis populations in countries with persistent bovine tuberculosis usually show a prevalent spoligotype with a wide geographical distribution. This study applied mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing to a random panel of 115 M. bovis isolates that are representative of the most frequent spoligotype in the Iberian Peninsula, SB0121. VNTR typing targeted nine loci: ETR-A (alias VNTR2165), ETR-B (VNTR2461), ETR-D (MIRU4, VNTR580), ETR-E (MIRU31, VNTR3192), MIRU26 (VNTR2996), QUB11a (VNTR2163a), QUB11b (VNTR2163b), QUB26 (VNTR4052), and QUB3232 (VNTR3232). We found a high degree of diversity among the studied isolates (discriminatory index [D] = 0.9856), which were split into 65 different MIRU-VNTR types. An alternative short-format MIRU-VNTR typing targeting only the four loci with the highest variability values was found to offer an equivalent discriminatory index. Minimum spanning trees using the MIRU-VNTR data showed the hypothetical evolution of an apparent clonal group. MIRU-VNTR analysis was also applied to the isolates of 176 animals from 15 farms infected by M. bovis SB0121; in 10 farms, the analysis revealed the coexistence of two to five different MIRU types differing in one to six loci, which highlights the frequency of undetected heterogeneity.

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

Biased Random-key Genetic Algorithms For The Winner Determination Problem In Combinatorial Auctions.

Abstract In this paper, we address the problem of picking a subset of bids in a general combinatorial auction so as to maximize the overall profit using the first-price model. This winner determination problem assumes that a single bidding round is held to determine both the winners and prices to be paid. We introduce six variants of biased random-key genetic algorithms for this problem. Three of them use a novel initialization technique that makes use of solutions of intermediate linear programming relaxations of an exact mixed integer-linear programming model as initial chromosomes of the population. An experimental evaluation compares the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms with the standard mixed linear integer programming formulation, a specialized exact algorithm, and the best-performing heuristics proposed for this problem. The proposed algorithms are competitive and offer strong results, mainly for large-scale auctions.

Oral health conditions among the elderly in Southeastern São Paulo State

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to asses oral health conditions in a population aged 60 years and over living in Botucatu, Southeastern Brazil. A cross-sectional population-based study was carried out using a random sample (N=372) of the urban population aged 60 years and over from the city of Botucatu, in 2005. World Health Organization criteria and codes for oral health epidemiological surveys were used. Re-examination was carried out in 10% of individuals aiming to evaluate intra-examiner agreement. Statistical analysis was performed by one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, as applicable. Also, the t-test was used in the absence of homoscedasticity. Fisher's exact test was used for situations where the categories with less than five units were observed. Adjusted residuals and multiple-comparison analysis were conducted to identify associations between variable categories and subgroups. The intra-examiner agreement was 98% and Kappa statistics result was 0.95. Loss component represented 90.68% of DMF-T index, which was 29.85. The prevalence of edentulism was 63.17%. Upper and lower dentures were found in 80% and 58% respectively, with complete denture as the most commonly used. In those studied, 15% required upper and 38% lower dentures. There was more need for complete denture in both jaws. Approximately 20% had soft tissue alterations. For periodontal conditions, most sextants were excluded (81.81%). Periodontal pockets (4 - 5 mm) were seen in 11.29% of the examined individuals. The oral health status of the elderly population in Botucatu is poor, as well as in other Brazilian cities. The results of this study may help planning collective health actions, giving an accurate description of the oral problems among the elderly.

Allometric models for estimating the phytomass of a secondary Atlantic Forest area of southeastern Brazil

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate equations to estimate the aboveground phytomass of a 30 years old plot of Atlantic Forest. In two plots of 100 m², a total of 82 trees were cut down at ground level. For each tree, height and diameter were measured. Leaves and woody material were separated in order to determine their fresh weights in field conditions. Samples of each fraction were oven dried at 80 °C to constant weight to determine their dry weight. Tree data were divided into two random samples. One sample was used for the development of the regression equations, and the other for validation. The models were developed using single linear regression analysis, where the dependent variable was the dry mass, and the independent variables were height (h), diameter (d) and d²h. The validation was carried out using Pearson correlation coefficient, paired t-Student test and standard error of estimation. The best equations to estimate aboveground phytomass were: lnDW = -3.068+2.522lnd (r² = 0.91; s y/x = 0.67) and lnDW = -3.676+0.951ln d²h (r² = 0.94; s y/x = 0.56).

Synthesis and structural characterization of block and random low molecular weight copolymers composed of L-lactic acid and isosorbide succinate moieties

Isosorbide succinate moieties were incorporated into poly(L-lactide) (PLLA) backbone in order to obtain a new class of biodegradable polymer with enhanced properties. This paper describes the synthesis and characterization of four types of low molecular weight copolymers. Copolymer I was obtained from monomer mixtures of L-lactide, isosorbide, and succinic anhydride; II from oligo(L-lactide) (PLLA), isosorbide, and succinic anhydride; III from oligo(isosorbide succinate) (PIS) and L-lactide; and IV from transesterification reactions between PLLA and PIS. MALDI-TOFMS and 13C-NMR analyses gave evidence that co-oligomerization was successfully attained in all cases. The data suggested that the product I is a random co-oligomer and the products II-IV are block co-oligomers.

Associação entre excesso de peso e hábito de fumar, Santarém, PA, 2007

OBJETIVO: Estudar associação entre excesso de peso e hábito de fumar. METODOLOGIA: Estudo transversal desenvolvido por telefone numa amostra probabilística de adultos (Santarém /PA), em 2007. Variável desfecho foi excesso de peso, explanatória hábito de fumar e de confusão idade, escolaridade, união conjugal, estado nutricional prévio, abuso de bebidas alcoólicas, atividade física no lazer e padrão alimentar. Associação entre excesso de peso e demais variáveis foi investigada pelo teste do qui-quadrado e regressão de Poisson para o cálculo das razões de prevalência de excesso de peso conforme hábito de fumar, considerando-se três níveis de hierarquia: características sociodemográficas, estado nutricional prévio e padrão comportamental. RESULTADOS: Verificou-se 40,6% de excesso de peso e 16,4% de fumantes. As variáveis associadas ao excesso de peso foram: maior idade, menor escolaridade, união conjugal estável, excesso de peso aos 20 anos e hábito de não consumo de refrigerante para ambos os sexos; não ativo no lazer para homens e hábito de fumar (atual e passado) para mulheres. As razões de prevalência de excesso de peso não apresentaram associação com hábito de fumar para homens, porém para mulheres houve tendência de maior prevalência de excesso de peso para fumantes atuais, chegando a 2,56 vezes mais do que para nunca fumantes e ex-fumantes. CONCLUSÃO: Este estudo constatou que a prevalência de excesso de peso foi maior para mulheres fumantes, comparativamente às ex-fumantes e nunca fumantes. Para os homens não se observou nenhuma associação entre excesso de peso e tabagismo.

Influence of memory in deterministic walks in random media: Analytical calculation within a mean-field approximation

Consider a random medium consisting of N points randomly distributed so that there is no correlation among the distances separating them. This is the random link model, which is the high dimensionality limit (mean-field approximation) for the Euclidean random point structure. In the random link model, at discrete time steps, a walker moves to the nearest point, which has not been visited in the last mu steps (memory), producing a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (the tourist walk). We have analytically obtained the distribution of the number n of points explored by the walker with memory mu=2, as well as the transient and period joint distribution. This result enables us to explain the abrupt change in the exploratory behavior between the cases mu=1 (memoryless walker, driven by extreme value statistics) and mu=2 (walker with memory, driven by combinatorial statistics). In the mu=1 case, the mean newly visited points in the thermodynamic limit (N >> 1) is just < n >=e=2.72... while in the mu=2 case, the mean number < n > of visited points grows proportionally to N(1/2). Also, this result allows us to establish an equivalence between the random link model with mu=2 and random map (uncorrelated back and forth distances) with mu=0 and the abrupt change between the probabilities for null transient time and subsequent ones.

Skewed Distribution of Circulating Activated Natural Killer T (NKT) Cells in Patients with Common Variable Immunodeficiency Disorders (CVID)

Common variable immunodeficiency disorder (CVID) is the commonest cause of primary antibody failure in adults and children, and characterized clinically by recurrent bacterial infections and autoimmune manifestations. Several innate immune defects have been described in CVID, but no study has yet investigated the frequency, phenotype or function of the key regulatory cell population, natural killer T (NKT) cells. We measured the frequencies and subsets of NKT cells in patients with CVID and compared these to healthy controls. Our results show a skewing of NKT cell subsets, with CD4+ NKT cells at higher frequencies, and CD8+ NKT cells at lower frequencies. However, these cells were highly activated and expression CD161. The NKT cells had a higher expression of CCR5 and concomitantly expression of CCR5+CD69+CXCR6 suggesting a compensation of the remaining population of NKT cells for rapid effector action.

Effect of Low-Level Laser Therapy on Malondialdehyde Concentration in Random Cutaneous Flap Viability

Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the effects of 830 and 670 nm laser on malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration in random skin-flap survival. Background Data: Low-level laser therapy (LLLT) has been reported to be successful in stimulating the formation of new blood vessels and activating superoxide-dismutase delivery, thus helping the inhibition of free-radical action and consequently reducing necrosis. Materials and Methods: Thirty Wistar rats were used and divided into three groups, with 10 rats in each one. A random skin flap was raised on the dorsum of each animal. Group 1 was the control group; group 2 received 830 nm laser radiation; and group 3 was submitted to 670 nm laser radiation. The animals underwent laser therapy with 36 J/cm(2) energy density immediately after surgery and on the 4 days subsequent to surgery. The application site of the laser radiation was 1 point, 2.5 cm from the flap's cranial base. The percentage of the skin-flap necrosis area was calculated 7 days postoperative using the paper-template method, and a skin sample was collected immediately after as a way of determining the MDA concentration. Results: Statistically significant differences were found between the necrosis percentages, with higher values seen in group 1 compared with groups 2 and 3. Groups 2 and 3 did not present statistically significant differences (p > 0.05). Group 3 had a lower concentration of MDA values compared to the control group (p < 0.05). Conclusion: LLLT was effective in increasing the random skin-flap viability in rats, and the 670 nm laser was efficient in reducing the MDA concentration.

Multi-trait and random regression mature weight heritability and breeding value estimates in Nelore cattle

Mature weight breeding values were estimated using a multi-trait animal model (MM) and a random regression animal model (RRM). Data consisted of 82 064 weight records from 8 145 animals, recorded from birth to eight years of age. Weights at standard ages were considered in the MM. All models included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic effects) and animal age as covariates. In the RRM, mean trends were modelled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age and genetic maternal and direct and maternal permanent environmental effects were also included as random. Legendre polynomials of orders 4, 3, 6 and 3 were used for animal and maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, considering five classes of residual variances. Mature weight (five years) direct heritability estimates were 0.35 (MM) and 0.38 (RRM). Rank correlation between sires' breeding values estimated by MM and RRM was 0.82. However, selecting the top 2% (12) or 10% (62) of the young sires based on the MM predicted breeding values, respectively 71% and 80% of the same sires would be selected if RRM estimates were used instead. The RRM modelled the changes in the (co) variances with age adequately and larger breeding value accuracies can be expected using this model.

Can type of school be used as an alternative indicator of socioeconomic status in dental caries studies? A cross-sectional study

Background: Despite the importance of collecting individual data of socioeconomic status (SES) in epidemiological oral health surveys with children, this procedure relies on the parents as respondents. Therefore, type of school (public or private schools) could be used as an alternative indicator of SES, instead of collecting data individually. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of the variable type of school as an indicator of socioeconomic status as a substitute of individual data in an epidemiological survey about dental caries in Brazilian preschool children. Methods: This study followed a cross-sectional design, with a random sample of 411 preschool children aged 1 to 5 years, representative of Catalao, Brazil. A calibrated examiner evaluated the prevalence of dental caries and parents or guardians provided information about several individual socioeconomic indicators by means of a semi-structured questionnaire. A multilevel approach was used to investigate the association among individual socioeconomic variables, as well as the type of school, and the outcome. Results: When all significant variables in the univariate analysis were used in the multiple model, only mother's schooling and household income (individual socioeconomic variables) presented significant associations with presence of dental caries, and the type of school was not significantly associated. However, when the type of school was used alone, children of public school presented significantly higher prevalence of dental caries than those enrolled in private schools. Conclusions: The type of school used as an alternative indicator for socioeconomic status is a feasible predictor for caries experience in epidemiological dental caries studies involving preschool children in Brazilian context.