Extending Working Lives: The Case of Denmark. CEPS Working Document No. 404, 17 February 2015

Extending working lives has been a key item on the political agenda in Denmark for at least two decades now. This study details recent and prospective reforms to the voluntary early retirement scheme and the pension age, as well as current policy initiatives to keep older workers in employment. Other aspects central to a long working life, such as health, lifelong learning, age management practices in companies, and elderly workers’ motivation are discussed in depth. Overall, Denmark is in a relatively good state when it comes to older workers’ labour market participation and related job satisfaction. This impacts positively on the public finance challenge linked to population ageing which, given agreed reforms, should be manageable. Ongoing reform implementation is likely to substantially increase the employment of those aged 60 and over. Nevertheless, surveys point to age discrimination as a potential problem and people who fall into unemployment at a late stage of their careers still face challenges to reemployment.

The EU regime on biofuels in transport: Still in search of sustainability. Egmont Paper No. 68, July 2014

Like other regions of the world, the EU is developing biofuels in the transport sector to reduce oil consumption and mitigate climate change. To promote them, it has adopted favourable legislation since the 2000s. In 2009 it even decided to oblige each Member State to ensure that by 2020 the share of energy coming from renewable sources reached at least 10% of their final consumption of energy in the transport sector. Biofuels are considered the main instrument to reach that percentage since the development of other alternatives (such as hydrogen and electricity) will take much longer than expected. Meanwhile, these various legislative initiatives have driven the production and consumption of biofuels in the EU. Biofuels accounted for 4.7% of EU transport fuel consumption in 2011. They have also led to trade and investment in biofuels on a global scale. This large-scale expansion of biofuels has, however, revealed numerous negative impacts. These stem from the fact that first-generation biofuels (i.e., those produced from food crops), of which the most important types are biodiesel and bioethanol, are used almost exclusively to meet the EU’s renewable 10% target in transport. Their negative impacts are: socioeconomic (food price rises), legal (land-grabbing), environmental (for instance, water stress and water pollution; soil erosion; reduction of biodiversity), climatic (direct and indirect land-use effects resulting in more greenhouse gas emissions) and public finance issues (subsidies and tax relief). The extent of such negative impacts depends on how biofuel feedstocks are produced and processed, the scale of production, and in particular, how they influence direct land use change (DLUC) and indirect land use change (ILUC) and the international trade. These negative impacts have thus provoked mounting debates in recent years, with a particular focus on ILUC. They have forced the EU to re-examine how it deals with biofuels and submit amendments to update its legislation. So far, the EU legislation foresees that only sustainable biofuels (produced in the EU or imported) can be used to meet the 10% target and receive public support; and to that end, mandatory sustainability criteria have been defined. Yet they have a huge flaw. Their measurement of greenhouse gas savings from biofuels does not take into account greenhouse gas emissions resulting from ILUC, which represent a major problem. The Energy Council of June 2014 agreed to set a limit on the extent to which firstgeneration biofuels can count towards the 10% target. But this limit appears to be less stringent than the ones made previously by the European Commission and the European Parliament. It also agreed to introduce incentives for the use of advanced (second- and third-generation) biofuels which would be allowed to count double towards the 10% target. But this again appears extremely modest by comparison with what was previously proposed. Finally, the approach chosen to take into account the greenhouse gas emissions due to ILUC appears more than cautious. The Energy Council agreed that the European Commission will carry out a reporting of ILUC emissions by using provisional estimated factors. A review clause will permit the later adjustment of these ILUC factors. With such legislative orientations made by the Energy Council, one cannot consider yet that there is a major shift in the EU biofuels policy. Bolder changes would have probably meant risking the collapse of the high-emission conventional biodiesel industry which currently makes up the majority of Europe’s biofuel production. The interests of EU farmers would have also been affected. There is nevertheless a tension between these legislative orientations and the new Commission’s proposals beyond 2020. In any case, many uncertainties remain on this issue. As long as solutions have not been found to minimize the important collateral damages provoked by the first generation biofuels, more scientific studies and caution are needed. Meanwhile, it would be wise to improve alternative paths towards a sustainable transport sector, i.e., stringent emission and energy standards for all vehicles, better public transport systems, automobiles that run on renewable energy other than biofuels, or other alternatives beyond the present imagination.

Measuring Dependency Ratios using National Transfer Accounts. CEPS Working Document No. 420/April 2016

It is now widely recognised that the socio-economic changes that ageing societies will bring about are poorly captured by the traditional demographic dependency ratios (DDRs), such as the old-age dependency ratio that relates the number of people aged 65+ to the working-age population. Future older generations will have increasingly better health and are likely to work longer. By combining population projections and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) data for seven European countries, we project the quantitative impact of ageing on public finances until 2040 and compare it to projected DDRs. We then simulate the public finance impact of changes in three key indicators related to the policy responses to population ageing: net immigration, healthy ageing and longer working lives. We do this by linking age-specific public health transfers and labour market participation rates to changes in mortality. Four main findings emerge: first, the simple old-age dependency ratio overestimates the future public finance challenges faced by the countries studied – significantly so for some countries, e.g. Austria, Finland and Hungary. Second, healthy ageing has a modest effect (on public finances) except in the case of Sweden, where it is substantial. Third, the long-run effect of immigration is well captured by the simple DDR measure if immigrants are similar to the native population. Finally, increasing the length of working lives is central to addressing the public finance challenge of ageing. Extending the length of working lives by three to four years over the next 25 years – equivalent to the increase in life expectancy – severely limits the impact of ageing on public transfers.

O controlo interno e a implementação de auditorias online no Safex em contexto de e-governance: Tecnologias, desafios e oportunidades

O presente Relatório Detalhado de Atividade Profissional é apresentado no âmbito da obtenção do Grau de Mestre dos Oficiais do Exército licenciados pré-Bolonha pela Academia Militar na Área específica de Administração Militar. A sua redação e estruturação tem por base o definido na NEP 520 e NEP 517/1ª da AM, para esta tipologia de trabalhos, tendo o autor, optado por desenvolver um tema no âmbito da sua atividade profissional, considerado como pioneiro e inovador. O Tenente-Coronel de Administração Militar do Exército Português, Luís Miguel Gonçalves, nasceu a 25 de Novembro de 1971. Do seu percurso académico e formativo, consta frequência pré-Universitária, em estabelecimento militar de ensino, no Instituto Militar dos Pupilos do Exército, na área de Contabilidade e Administração; a Licenciatura em Ciências Militares, na especialidade de Administração Militar, pela Academia Militar, em 1995, com a Classificação final de 13,58 valores; o tirocínio para Oficiais de Administração Militar, com a nota final de 15,38 valores; o Curso de Operações Irregulares, tendo obtido a classificação de 17,67 valores; o Curso de Promoção a Capitão, com 16,63 valores; e o Curso de Promoção a Oficial Superior do Instituto de Altos Estudos Militares, com a classificação final de 14,50 valores. No âmbito da formação de pós-graduação, tem averbado créditos no módulo de Metodologia de Investigação Cientifica, pela Academia Militar, no Ano Letivo 2013/14, com a classificação final de 16,00 valores. Para além destes, o Environmental Course For Portugal – NATO School/ SHAPE; formação em Gestão de Projetos/ Exército - Microsoft Enterprise Project Management; o Curso de Formação Pedagógica Inicial de Formadores do Instituto de Emprego e Formação Profissional, com Homologação das Competências Pedagógicas; e vários certificados de formações no âmbito da Contabilidade, Administração, Finanças Públicas e Auditorias Financeiras, atribuídas pela Direção de Finanças do Exército e pelo Instituto de Gestão e Administração Pública do Porto. Ao longo dos 25 anos de serviço prestado ao Exército Português, como Oficial de Administração Militar, desempenhou diversos cargos e funções de Comando e Chefia, em várias UEO, nas áreas setoriais e funcionais, da formação, da instrução, da componente operacional, da logística, do pessoal, das finanças públicas, das inspeções e auditorias, da gestão e da Administração Militar. Atualmente o Tenente-Coronel Miguel Gonçalves, desempenha as Funções de Comandante de Batalhão na Escola dos Serviços. Para além dos cargos e funções averbadas no seu Curriculum Vitae detalhado, constituiu em 1996 o Núcleo Logístico de Projeção, Implantação, Acompanhamento e Ajuda Técnica no âmbito do emprego dos meios táticos e operacionais da Área de Responsabilidade FND/ IFOR na Bósnia-Herzegovina (Jugoslávia). Tem publicado na Revista da Administração Militar, vários artigos no âmbito da logística operacional, na função de combate Apoio de Serviços. Na área da formação, foi orientador e supervisor de vários trabalhos, individuais e de grupo aos cursos de promoção a capitão; e constitui-se como elemento primariamente responsável pelo planeamento e implementação dos primeiros cursos no Exército, com formação certificado pela Agência Nacional para a Qualificação e Ensino Profissional, I.P., do Sistema Nacional de Qualificações, certificação inserida no Catálogo Nacional de Qualificações. Na área Inspetiva, integrou várias equipas de Inspeção-Geral do Exército, como inspetor responsável pelas áreas de Logística e Finanças, bem como as de Inspetor, para a área dos recursos humanos – Despesas com Pessoal, nas equipas de inspeção do Comando do Pessoal do Exército. No desempenho das funções de Auditor Financeiro do Centro de Finanças do Comando do Pessoal, realizou diversas auditorias financeiras às UEO do Comando do Pessoal, na sua dependência, tendo desenvolvido e implementado um sistema pioneiro e inovador de monitorização e controlo interno, de auditorias “Online” com análise e reporte mensal, às contas das UEO do Comando do Pessoal, tendo em vista a validação das Demonstrações Financeiras para a Conta de Gerência Anual do Exército. A escolha do tema, “O Controlo Interno e a implementação de Auditorias Online no SAFEx em contexto de e-Governance: Tecnologias, desafios e oportunidades” surge na sequência da implementação destes procedimentos pelo autor, numa altura em que o Exército entrava em operativo com o Sistema Integrado de Gestão (SIG/DN), tendo sido à data reconhecido publicamente pelo TGEN Comandante do Pessoal do Exército, como sendo um procedimento inovador, com notáveis vantagens para a eficiência e eficácia do sistema administrativo-financeiro do Comando do Pessoal e consequentemente do Exército.

Essays on the Effects of Corporate Taxation

Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs.

Highway funding: use of toll revenues in financing highway projects.

Mode of access: Internet.

Status of federal highway programs in the absence of reauthorization.

Mode of access: Internet.

Support for highway safety programs - a report to the Secretary of Transportation by the National Highway Safety Advisory Committee.

Mode of access: Internet.

Better targeting of federal funds needed to eliminate unsafe bridges. Comptroller General's report to the Honorable James R. Sasser, United States Senate.

Mode of access: Internet.

Financing options for diagnostic inspection programs. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Programs, Washington, D.C.

State funding of alcohol safety countermeasure programs. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Programs, Washington, D.C.

Trends in bus transit operations 1960-1974. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Policy and International Affairs, Washington, D.C.

Innovative financing for transportation: practical solutions and experiences. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of Technology and Planning Assistance, Washington, D.C.

Financial management for transit: a handbook. Final report.

Mode of access: Internet.

A survey of American attitudes toward transportation. Final report.

Transportation Department, Secretary of Transportation, Washington, D.C.