The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

Growth Rate Estimation in the presence of Unit Roots

This study addresses the issue of the presence of a unit root on the growth rate estimation by the least-squares approach. We argue that when the log of a variable contains a unit root, i.e., it is not stationary then the growth rate estimate from the log-linear trend model is not a valid representation of the actual growth of the series. In fact, under such a situation, we show that the growth of the series is the cumulative impact of a stochastic process. As such the growth estimate from such a model is just a spurious representation of the actual growth of the series, which we refer to as a “pseudo growth rate”. Hence such an estimate should be interpreted with caution. On the other hand, we highlight that the statistical representation of a series as containing a unit root is not easy to separate from an alternative description which represents the series as fundamentally deterministic (no unit root) but containing a structural break. In search of a way around this, our study presents a survey of both the theoretical and empirical literature on unit root tests that takes into account possible structural breaks. We show that when a series is trendstationary with breaks, it is possible to use the log-linear trend model to obtain well defined estimates of growth rates for sub-periods which are valid representations of the actual growth of the series. Finally, to highlight the above issues, we carry out an empirical application whereby we estimate meaningful growth rates of real wages per worker for 51 industries from the organised manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973-2003, which are not only unbiased but also asymptotically efficient. We use these growth rate estimates to highlight the evolving inter-industry wage structure in India.

Investigation of field and diffusion time dependence of the diffusion-weighted signal at ultrahigh magnetic fields.

Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in the number of high-magnetic-field MRI magnets. However, the exact effect of a high magnetic field strength (B0 ) on diffusion-weighted MR signals is not yet fully understood. The goal of this study was to investigate the influence of different high magnetic field strengths (9.4 T and 14.1 T) and diffusion times (9, 11, 13, 15, 17 and 24 ms) on the diffusion-weighted signal in rat brain white matter. At a short diffusion time (9 ms), fractional anisotropy values were found to be lower at 14.1 T than at 9.4 T, but this difference disappeared at longer diffusion times. A simple two-pool model was used to explain these findings. The model describes the white matter as a first hindered compartment (often associated with the extra-axonal space), characterized by a faster orthogonal diffusion and a lower fractional anisotropy, and a second restricted compartment (often associated with the intra-axonal space), characterized by a slower orthogonal diffusion (i.e. orthogonal to the axon direction) and a higher fractional anisotropy. Apparent T2 relaxation time measurements of the hindered and restricted pools were performed. The shortening of the pseudo-T2 value from the restricted compartment with B0 is likely to be more pronounced than the apparent T2 changes in the hindered compartment. This study suggests that the observed differences in diffusion tensor imaging parameters between the two magnetic field strengths at short diffusion time may be related to differences in the apparent T2 values between the pools. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ruptured pseudo-aneurysm of a femoral artery in a drug abuser revealed by post-mortem CT angiography.

A 35-year-old drug addict was found dead in a public toilet with a ruptured groin, which was later diagnosed to be a leaking pseudo-aneurysm. Investigation at the scene revealed impressive external hemorrhage related to a groin wound. Post-mortem computed tomography angiography demonstrated an aneurysm of the right femoral artery with leak of contrast liquid. Signs of blood loss were evident at autopsy, and histological examination revealed necrosis and rupture of the pseudo-aneurysm. Toxicological analyses were positive for methadone, cocaine, citalopram, and benzodiazepines. This is the first case report in the literature of a ruptured femoral pseudo-aneurysm with a post-mortem radiological diagnosis.

Vincristine and intestinal pseudo-obstruction in children: report of 5 cases, literature review, and suggested management.

Summary: Intestinal pseudo-obstruction is a rare complication resulting from a variety of disorders. Symptoms include abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, constipation, and malnutrition. Vincristine-related pseudo-obstruction has been reported in the literature, but its description in children and recommendations for management are lacking. A review of the literature revealed 21 reported pediatric cases of vincristine-related pseudo-obstruction. Most have, however, been attributed to a drug interaction with itraconazole, accidental vincristine overdose, or liver failure. Potential genetic causes are rarely addressed. We present here 5 cases of pseudo-obstruction related to vincristine without any identifiable predisposing factors, and a suggested algorithm for management

Origin of Early Carboniferous pseudo-adakites in northern Brittany (France) through massive amphibole fractionation from hydrous basalt

P>The first Variscan pseudo-adakites were identified in close association with the Saint-Jean-du-Doigt (SJDD) mafic intrusion (Brittany, France) in a geodynamic context unrelated to subduction. These rocks are trondhjemites emplaced 347 +/- 4 Ma ago as 2-3 km2 bodies and dykes. Trace-element concentrations and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios indicate that the SJDD pseudo-adakites probably resulted from extreme differentiation of an SJDD-type hydrous basaltic magma in a lower continental crust of normal thickness (0.8 GPa). Modelling shows that garnet is not a required phase, which was commonly believed to be the case for continental arc-derived adakite-like rocks. A massive fractionation of amphibole fits the data much better and does not require high pressures, in agreement with the inferred extensional tectonic regime at the time of pluton emplacement. Alternatively, the SJDD pseudo-adakites could have resulted from the melting of newly underplated SJDD mafic precursors, but thermal considerations lead us to believe that this was not the case.

Toxic phytoplankton response to warming in two Mediterranean bays of the Ebro Delta

The analysis of the phytoplankton and environmental parameters of the time series in Alfacs and Fangar bays (north western Mediterranean) from 1990 to 2009 shows some trends. There is an increase in the average water column temperature, 0.11, 0.01, 0.80 and 0.23 ºC for spring, summer, fall and winter respectively in Alfacs Bay and 1.76, 0.71, 1.33, 0.89 ºC for spring, summer, fall and winter in Fangar Bay. The trends in phytoplankton populations show a shift in the timing of occurrence of Karlodinium spp. blooms and an increase of the Pseudo-nitzschia spp. abundances. There is a lack of correlation between the average seasonal temperatures and the toxic phytoplankton abundances.

Dependence of brain intravoxel incoherent motion perfusion parameters on the cardiac cycle.

Measurement of microvascular perfusion with Intravoxel Incoherent Motion (IVIM) MRI is gaining interest. Yet, the physiological influences on the IVIM perfusion parameters ("pseudo-diffusion" coefficient D*, perfusion fraction f, and flow related parameter fD*) remain insufficiently characterized. In this article, we hypothesize that D* and fD*, which depend on blood speed, should vary during the cardiac cycle. We extended the IVIM model to include time dependence of D* = D*(t), and demonstrate in the healthy human brain that both parameters D* and fD* are significantly larger during systole than diastole, while the diffusion coefficient D and f do not vary significantly. The results non-invasively demonstrate the pulsatility of the brain's microvasculature.

Fourth order pseudo maximum likelihood methods

We extend PML theory to account for information on the conditional moments up to order four, but without assuming a parametric model, to avoid a risk of misspecification of the conditional distribution. The key statistical tool is the quartic exponential family, which allows us to generalize the PML2 and QGPML1 methods proposed in Gourieroux et al. (1984) to PML4 and QGPML2 methods, respectively. An asymptotic theory is developed. The key numerical tool that we use is the Gauss-Freud integration scheme that solves a computational problem that has previously been raised in several fields. Simulation exercises demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the methods [Authors]

Disparate activation of the coronary sinus and inferior left atrium during atrial tachycardia after persistent atrial fibrillation ablation: prevalence, pitfalls, and impact on mapping.

INTRODUCTION: Persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation may lead to partial disconnection of the coronary sinus (CS). As a result, disparate activation sequences of the local CS versus contiguous left atrium (LA) may be observed during atrial tachycardia (AT). We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of this phenomenon and its impact on activation mapping. METHODS: AT occurring after persistent AF ablation were investigated in 74 consecutive patients. Partial CS disconnection during AT was suspected when double potentials with disparate activation sequences were observed on the CS catheter. Endocardial mapping facing CS bipoles was performed to differentiate LA far-field from local CS potentials. RESULTS: A total of 149 ATs were observed. Disparate LA-CS activations were apparent in 20 ATs after magnifying the recording scale (13%). The most common pattern (90%) was distal to proximal endocardial LA activation against proximal to distal CS activation, the latter involving the whole CS or its distal part. Perimitral macroreentry was more common when disparate LA-CS activations were observed (67% vs 29%; P = 0.002). Partial CS disconnection also resulted in "pseudo" mitral isthmus (MI) block during LA appendage pacing in 20% of patients as local CS activation was proximal to distal despite distal to proximal activation of the contiguous LA. CONCLUSION: Careful analysis of CS recordings during AT following persistent AF ablation often reveals disparate patterns of activation. Recognizing when endocardial LA activation occurs in the opposite direction to the more obvious local CS signals is critical to avoid misleading interpretations during mapping of AT and evaluation of MI block.

Appropriate end-points for right results in the age of antiangiogenic agents: Future options for phase II trials in patients with recurrent glioblastoma.

The progression-free survival rate at 6months (PFS-6) has long been considered the best end-point for assessing the efficacy of new agents in phase II trials in patients with recurrent glioblastoma. However, due to the introduction of antiangiogenic agents in this setting, and their intrinsic propensity to alter neuroradiological disease assessment by producing pseudoregression, any end-point based on neuroradiological modifications should be reconsidered. Further, statistically significant effects on progression-free survival (PFS) only should not automatically be considered reliable evidence of meaningful clinical benefit. In this context, because of its direct and unquestionable clinical relevance, overall survival (OS) represents the gold standard end-point for measuring clinical efficacy, despite the disadvantage that it is influenced by subsequent therapies and usually takes longer time to be evaluated. Therefore, while awaiting novel imaging criteria for response evaluation and/or new imaging tools to distinguish between 'true' and 'pseudo'-responses to antiangiogenic agents, the measurement of OS or OS rates should be considered primary end-points, also in phase II trials with these agents.

Role of the microenvironment on epithelial stem cell fate

Stratified epithelia of mammals contain adult stem/progenitor cells that are instrumental for renewal, regeneration and repair. We have recently demonstrated, using clonal and functional analysis, that all stratified epithelia contain clonogenic stem cells that can respond to skin morphogenetic signals, while cells obtained from simple or pseudo-stratified epithelia cannot. A genome-wide expression analysis favors multilineage priming rather than reprogramming. Collectively, these observations are reminiscent of epithelial metaplasia, a phenomenon in which a cell adopts the phenotype of another epithelial cell, often in response to repeated environmental stress, e.g. smoking, alcohol and micro-traumatisms. Furthermore, they support the notion that metaplasia results from the expression of an unseen potency, revealed by an environmental deficiency. The thymus supposedly contains only progenitor epithelial cells but no stem cells. We have demonstrated that the thymus also contains a small population of clonogenic cells that can function as bona fide multipotent hair follicle stem cells in response to an inductive skin microenvironment and a genome-wide expression analysis indicates that it correlates with robust changes in the expression of genes important for thymus identity. Hence, multilineage priming or reprogramming can account for the fate change of epithelial stem/progenitor cells in response to a varying microenvironment.

Biotic effects of the Chicxulub impact, K-T catastrophe and sea level change in Texas

Biotic effects of the Chicxulub impact, the K-T event and sea level change upon planktic foraminifera were evaluated in a new core and outcrops along the Brazos River, Texas, about 1000 km from the Chicxulub impact crater on Yucatan, Mexico. Sediment deposition occurred in a middle neritic environment that shallowed to inner neritic depths near the end of the Maastrichtian. The sea level fall scoured submarine channels, which were infilled by a sandstone complex with reworked Chicxulub impact spherules and clasts with spherules near the base. The original Chicxulub impact ejecta layer was discovered 45-60 cm below the sandstone complex, and predates the K-T mass extinction by about 300,000 years. Results show that the Chicxulub impact caused no species extinctions or any other significant biotic effects. The subsequent sea level fall to inner neritic depth resulted in the disappearance of all larger (>150 mu m) deeper dwelling species creating a pseudo-mass extinction and a survivor assemblage of small surface dwellers and low oxygen tolerant taxa. The K-T boundary and mass extinction was identified 40-80 cm above the sandstone complex where all but some heterohelicids, hedbergellids and the disaster opportunistic guembelitfids went extinct, coincident with the evolution of first Danian species and the global delta(13)C shift. These data reveal that sea level changes profoundly influenced marine assemblages in near shore environments, that the Chicxulub impact and K-T mass extinction are two separate and unrelated events, and that the biotic effects of this impact have been vastly overestimated. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.