Ice formation and development in aged, wintertime cumulus over the UK: observations and modelling

In situ high resolution aircraft measurements of cloud microphysical properties were made in coordination with ground based remote sensing observations of a line of small cumulus clouds, using Radar and Lidar, as part of the Aerosol Properties, PRocesses And InfluenceS on the Earth's climate (APPRAISE) project. A narrow but extensive line (~100 km long) of shallow convective clouds over the southern UK was studied. Cloud top temperatures were observed to be higher than −8 °C, but the clouds were seen to consist of supercooled droplets and varying concentrations of ice particles. No ice particles were observed to be falling into the cloud tops from above. Current parameterisations of ice nuclei (IN) numbers predict too few particles will be active as ice nuclei to account for ice particle concentrations at the observed, near cloud top, temperatures (−7.5 °C). The role of mineral dust particles, consistent with concentrations observed near the surface, acting as high temperature IN is considered important in this case. It was found that very high concentrations of ice particles (up to 100 L−1) could be produced by secondary ice particle production providing the observed small amount of primary ice (about 0.01 L−1) was present to initiate it. This emphasises the need to understand primary ice formation in slightly supercooled clouds. It is shown using simple calculations that the Hallett-Mossop process (HM) is the likely source of the secondary ice. Model simulations of the case study were performed with the Aerosol Cloud and Precipitation Interactions Model (ACPIM). These parcel model investigations confirmed the HM process to be a very important mechanism for producing the observed high ice concentrations. A key step in generating the high concentrations was the process of collision and coalescence of rain drops, which once formed fell rapidly through the cloud, collecting ice particles which caused them to freeze and form instant large riming particles. The broadening of the droplet size-distribution by collision-coalescence was, therefore, a vital step in this process as this was required to generate the large number of ice crystals observed in the time available. Simulations were also performed with the WRF (Weather, Research and Forecasting) model. The results showed that while HM does act to increase the mass and number concentration of ice particles in these model simulations it was not found to be critical for the formation of precipitation. However, the WRF simulations produced a cloud top that was too cold and this, combined with the assumption of continual replenishing of ice nuclei removed by ice crystal formation, resulted in too many ice crystals forming by primary nucleation compared to the observations and parcel modelling.

Radar bright band correction using the linear depolarisation ratio

The enhanced radar return associated with melting snow, ‘the bright band’, can lead to large overestimates of rain rates. Most correction schemes rely on fitting the radar observations to a vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) which includes the bright band enhancement. Observations show that the VPR is very variable in space and time; large enhancements occur for melting snow, but none for the melting graupel in embedded convection. Applying a bright band VPR correction to a region of embedded convection will lead to a severe underestimate of rainfall. We revive an earlier suggestion that high values of the linear depolarisation ratio (LDR) are an excellent means of detecting when bright band contamination is occurring and that the value of LDR may be used to correct the value of Z in the bright band.

Bollène-2002 experiment: radar quantitative precipitation estimation in the Cévennes–Vivarais region, France

The Bollène-2002 Experiment was aimed at developing the use of a radar volume-scanning strategy for conducting radar rainfall estimations in the mountainous regions of France. A developmental radar processing system, called Traitements Régionalisés et Adaptatifs de Données Radar pour l’Hydrologie (Regionalized and Adaptive Radar Data Processing for Hydrological Applications), has been built and several algorithms were specifically produced as part of this project. These algorithms include 1) a clutter identification technique based on the pulse-to-pulse variability of reflectivity Z for noncoherent radar, 2) a coupled procedure for determining a rain partition between convective and widespread rainfall R and the associated normalized vertical profiles of reflectivity, and 3) a method for calculating reflectivity at ground level from reflectivities measured aloft. Several radar processing strategies, including nonadaptive, time-adaptive, and space–time-adaptive variants, have been implemented to assess the performance of these new algorithms. Reference rainfall data were derived from a careful analysis of rain gauge datasets furnished by the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory. The assessment criteria for five intense and long-lasting Mediterranean rain events have proven that good quantitative precipitation estimates can be obtained from radar data alone within 100-km range by using well-sited, well-maintained radar systems and sophisticated, physically based data-processing systems. The basic requirements entail performing accurate electronic calibration and stability verification, determining the radar detection domain, achieving efficient clutter elimination, and capturing the vertical structure(s) of reflectivity for the target event. Radar performance was shown to depend on type of rainfall, with better results obtained with deep convective rain systems (Nash coefficients of roughly 0.90 for point radar–rain gauge comparisons at the event time step), as opposed to shallow convective and frontal rain systems (Nash coefficients in the 0.6–0.8 range). In comparison with time-adaptive strategies, the space–time-adaptive strategy yields a very significant reduction in the radar–rain gauge bias while the level of scatter remains basically unchanged. Because the Z–R relationships have not been optimized in this study, results are attributed to an improved processing of spatial variations in the vertical profile of reflectivity. The two main recommendations for future work consist of adapting the rain separation method for radar network operations and documenting Z–R relationships conditional on rainfall type.

Do location specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

In the last decade, the growth of local, site-specific weather forecasts delivered by mobile phone or website represents arguably the fastest change in forecast consumption since the beginning of Television weather forecasts 60 years ago. In this study, a street-interception survey of 274 members of the public a clear first preference for narrow weather forecasts above traditional broad weather forecasts is shown for the first time, with a clear bias towards this preference for users under 40. The impact of this change on the understanding of forecast probability and intensity information is explored. While the correct interpretation of the statement ‘There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow’ is still low in the cohort, in common with previous studies, a clear impact of age and educational attainment on understanding is shown, with those under 40 and educated to degree level or above more likely to correctly interpret it. The interpretation of rainfall intensity descriptors (‘Light’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Heavy’) by the cohort is shown to be significantly different to official and expert assessment of the same descriptors and to have large variance amongst the cohort. However, despite these key uncertainties, members of the cohort generally seem to make appropriate decisions about rainfall forecasts. There is some evidence that the decisions made are different depending on the communication format used, and the cohort expressed a clear preference for tabular over graphical weather forecast presentation.

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

Mycoflora and fumonisin contamination in Brazilian sorghum from sowing to harvest

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to characterise the mycoflora and the presence of fumonisin in sorghum grains, correlating the results with the environment and abiotic factors. RESULTS: Fifty samples (five collections of ten samples each) of sorghum were analysed. All samples were found to be contaminated with fungi, with higher frequencies of Cladosporium spp. (61.8%) and Helminthosporium spp. (33.4%). Fusarium verticillioides was isolated from 15.1% of the samples, with 38% of them being contaminated with fumonisin B(1) (FB(1)) at levels ranging from 50 to 368.78 ng g(-1). Regarding abiotic factors, temperature, water activity and rainfall showed a positive correlation with the frequency of F. verticillioides and FB(1) production. There was a significant positive correlation between relative air humidity and FB(1) production. The results obtained from sexual crosses between standard F mating tester strains and the isolated strains confirmed that the strains isolated were F. verticillioides. CONCLUSION: It can be concluded that the decrease in F. verticillioides and fumonisin contamination occurred owing to atypical climatic factors during the period of sorghum cultivation, when there was any occurrence of rain and the level of water activity of grains did not reach 0.58. (C) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry

Resistência a penetração da chuva em fachadas de alvenaria de materiais cerâmicos : uma análise de desempenho

Nesse trabalho abordam-se de maneira geral a diversas características e propriedades dos materiais que influem na penetração da água em fachadas de alvenaria. Analiza-se os principais mecanismos de infiltraçao da água bem como o comportamento da água sobre a superfície das fachadas. Uma análise também é feita com respeito a determinação do grau de exposição da fachada. Com o fim de avaliar o desempenho de fachadas de alvenaria, com relação a sua resistência a penetração da chuva, utiliza-se a metodologia de desempenho. Faz-se uma aplicação prática para as condições de Porto Alegre, apresentando-se os resultados obtidos.

Impacto dos fatores climáticos nas vendas do varejo no Brasil. Uma abordagem com dados de painel com efeito fixo.

Os impactos das variações climáticas tem sido um tema amplamente pesquisado na macroeconomia mundial e também em setores como agricultura, energia e seguros. Já para o setor de varejo, uma busca nos principais periódicos brasileiros não retornou nenhum estudo específico. Em economias mais desenvolvidas produtos de seguros atrelados ao clima são amplamente negociados e através deste trabalho visamos também avaliar a possibilidade de desenvolvimento deste mercado no Brasil. O presente trabalho buscou avaliar os impactos das variações climáticas nas vendas do varejo durante período de aproximadamente 18 meses (564 dias) para 253 cidades brasileiras. As informações de variações climáticas (precipitação, temperatura, velocidade do vento, umidade relativa, insolação e pressão atmosférica) foram obtidas através do INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia) e cruzadas com as informações transacionais de até 206 mil clientes ativos de uma amostra não balanceada, oriundos de uma instituição financeira do ramo de cartões de crédito. Ambas as bases possuem periodicidade diária. A metodologia utilizada para o modelo econométrico foram os dados de painel com efeito fixo para avaliação de dados longitudinais através dos softwares de estatística / econometria EViews (software proprietário da IHS) e R (software livre). A hipótese nula testada foi de que o clima influencia nas decisões de compra dos clientes no curto prazo, hipótese esta provada pelas análises realizadas. Assumindo que o comportamento do consumidor do varejo não muda devido à seleção do meio de pagamento, ao chover as vendas do varejo em moeda local são impactadas negativamente. A explicação está na redução da quantidade total de transações e não o valor médio das transações. Ao excluir da base as cidades de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro não houve alteração na significância e relevância dos resultados. Por outro lado, a chuva possui efeito de substituição entre as vendas online e offline. Quando analisado setores econômicos para observar se há comportamento diferenciado entre consumo e compras não observou-se alteração nos resultados. Ao incluirmos variáveis demográficas, concluímos que as mulheres e pessoas com maior faixa de idade apresentam maior histórico de compras. Ao avaliar o impacto da chuva em um determinado dia e seu impacto nos próximos 6 à 29 dias observamos que é significante para a quantidade de transações porém o impacto no volume de vendas não foi significante.

Abundância e distribuição sazonal de espécies autóctones de camarões peneídeos no canal de abastecimento do sistema primar de aquicultura orgânica (Laguna de Guaraíras, Tibau do Sul, Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil)

Guaraíras lagoon, located in Tibau do Sul in the eastern littoral of Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil), presents a permanent connection to the sea, which guarantees the occurrence of a rich biodiversity, which includes the autochthonous shrimp species Litopenaeus schmitti, Farfantepenaeus subtilis and Farfantepenaeus brasiliensis. In spite of being subject to a strong human intervention in the last decade, mainly related to the installation of shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) farms, the lagoon is still scarcely studied. The present study aims at characterizing the populations of the three autochthonous penaeid shrimp species inhabiting Guaraíras, taking into consideration their abundance and seasonal distribution in the inflow channel of Primar System of Organic Aquaculture (Tibau do Sul, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil). Twelve monthly samples were carried out from May 2005 to April 2006 with the aid of a circular cast net in the inflow channel, which is daily supplied with water from Guaraíras. Sampling months were grouped in trimesters according to the total pluviosity, thus comprising four trimesters. Water salinity was monitored twice a week and temperature values registered on a daily basis at noon, during the study period. The daily pluviosity data from the municipality of Tibau do Sul were supplied by Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária do Rio Grande do Norte (EMPARN). Collected shrimp were identified, weighted, measured and sexed. L. schmitti specimens (0.2 g to 17.8 g) were distributed in 1.3 g weight classes intervals. From the eighth sampling month (December 2005) onwards, males were classified into three categories, in accordance with the development of their petasm: (a) rudimentary petasm, (b) partially formed petasm, and (c) completely formed petasm. Among the ecological variables, rainfall showed the greatest dispersion (s.d.=187.74Rainfall and abundance of L. schmitti were negatively correlated (r = -0.85) whereas its abundance and water salinity were positively correlated (r = 0.63). Among 1,144 collected individuals, 1,127 were L. schmitti, 13 were F. subtilis and 4 were F. brasiliensis, which corresponded to 98.51%, 1.14% and 0.35% of the total of collected individuals. L. schmitti occurred in 100 % of all samples. Differently, the presence of F. subtilis and F. brasiliensis was restricted to 33% and 17% of the collected samples, respectively. The present study confirmed the occurrence of L. schmitti, F. brasiliensis and F. subtilis in Guaraíras. However, this lagoon seems to be primarily inhabited by juvenile Litopenaeus schmitti. The population of L. schmitti analysed showed a seasonal pattern of distribution. In general, in the months of high salinity and absence of rain, the number of individuals was higher than in the wet months. Further studies on the reproductive biology and ecology of L. schmitti, F. brasiliensis and F. subtilis may elucidate questions referring to the abundance, period, and phase of occurrence of these shrimp genera in Guaraíras. Finally, the risks associated to the establishment of L. vannamei in the lagoon provide a novel outlet for studies in this biotope

Períodos de interferência das plantas daninhas na cultura da cana-de-açúcar: I - Tiririca

Com o objetivo de estudar períodos de interferência entre plantas daninhas e a cultura da cana-de-açúcar, foi instalado um experimento no município paulista de Pradópolis, numa área pertencente à usina São Martinho, onde a cana-deaçúcar foi plantada no mês de abril de 1995 e colhida quinze meses depois. As condições climáticas no estado de São Paulo após o plantio deste experimento (época normal de plantio da cana-de-açúcar no estado de São Paulo) são caracterizadas por deficiência hídrica e temperaturas amenas, sendo que o períodos chuvoso iniciou-se apenas quatro meses após o plantio. O resultados obtidos no experimento permitiram concluir que a cana-de-açúcar suportou um pequeno período de convivência inicial, de zero aos 41 dias após o plantio (DAP), sem sofrer interferência significativa de diminuição da produção. No entanto, o controle da tiririca por um período curto (dos aos 22 dias após o plantio da cana-de-açúcar foi suficiente para assegurar a produção.

Fé & Cia. LTDA: consumo religioso na sociedade contemporânea

The present work is an exercise of analysis from the cultural exercises related to movie high one of its raised status more with the deity, the human being surrenders it Religion leaving puzzleds the prophets of its end. The purpose of this work is to show that the religious phenomenon is one of the essential components of the socialization human being. The religious dimension, although to have been kept out of society in modernity - it was cybernetics, is an indispensable compassing to guide the human being in the discovery of its true existencial direction. For this, to attenuate the legacy without appropriate title, overwhelming and despairing of the producing and consumer goods society, it is indispensable to add as basic part to the practical one of the religion. And this practice is specify at the acquirement as of commodities objects , than it is to they are consecrate, exercising um magical power under the assistants from the religion. The fair religious Expo Religious, like the Expo Crest (fair as of commodities and service of the Evangelist) and the one Expo Catholic (fair as of commodities and service of the Catholics), appears at the I initiate from the century 21 at the association Brazilian about to cater the litigation of the market religious at every their segments. The and objective of this research is bring forward those two fairs in the format as of Expo and your contribution at the dynamic from the religion crest at the association he acts

Estimativa da erodibilidade do solo para fins conservacionistas na microbacia córrego do Tijuco, SP

The soil erodibility factor is represented by the integrated effect of processes that regulate the water infiltration, soil resistance and the transport of soil particles. Therefore, this study had as objective to estimate the soil erodibility in the Corrego do Tijuco watershed, São Paulo State, Brazil, for guiding farmers in decision making for application of techniques for soil conservation. The soil samples were collected in a regular spacing of 500 m, resulting in a total of 310 points in a 0-20.0 m depth in an area of approximately 8,000 ha. For the estimation of soil erodibility (K) was applied a mathematical model which takes into account the soil organic matter content, the sand and silt size fractions, the soil permeability, and the particle mean diameter for each point of soil sampling. Estimated values greater than 0.040 Mg ha h ha(-1) MJ(-1) mm(-1) were considered very high for this factor. In areas with greater degree of erodibility occurs the Argisols order predominance, that shows high susceptibility to the development of interrill erosion due to its remarkable performance in relation to textural gradient, thereby, the interrill erosion rates can be very intensive due to rapid saturation of upper horizon, increasing the erosion process. At the Latosols (Oxisols) areas were also observed high soil erodibility values that under inappropriate conditions of soil occupation, concentrating runoff of rain water, leading to appear deep gullies.

Influência da chuva na eficácia do glyphosate em mistura com adjuvantes na dessecação de plantas daninhas

Com o objetivo de estudar a influência do momento da chuva após a aplicação do herbicida glyphosate isolado e em mistura com adjuvantes na dessecação de plantas daninhas, foram instalados dois experimentos na Fazenda Experimental de Ensino e Pesquisa da Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias, UNESP - campus de Jaboticabal-SP, em duas épocas: inverno de 2000 (junho - agosto) e verão de 2001 (janeiro-março). Os experimentos foram instalados no delineamento experimental de blocos ao acaso, em arranjo fatorial 4 (tratamentos herbicidas) x 5 (períodos livres de chuva simulada) + 1, com quatro repetições. Os tratamentos consistiram da combinação de glyphosate SAqC (360 g e.a. ha-1) isolado ou adicionado de uréia (50 g L-1 de calda) ou óleo vegetal (100 ml L-1 de calda) ou sulfato de amônio (100 g L-1 de calda), com cinco períodos de chuva simulada (1, 2, 4, 6 e > 48 horas após a aplicação), além de uma testemunha. A chuva foi simulada com um sistema de irrigação por aspersão, e a quantidade aplicada variou entre 18 e 19 mm. em ambas as épocas a chuva foi prejudicial à ação do glyphosate, principalmente nos menores períodos livres de chuva após a aplicação. Os sintomas de fitointoxicação apareceram mais rapidamente no verão. A utilização de adjuvantes na calda de pulverização não beneficiou o desempenho do herbicida glyphosate no controle das plantas daninhas, no inverno. A adição de uréia (50 g L¹) é uma boa alternativa para o controle de plantas daninhas, no verão, em situações sujeitas à chuva até duas horas após a aplicação.

Perspectivas de inserção da energia solar fotovoltaica na geração de energia elétrica no Rio Grande do Norte

The generation of electricity in Brazil is predominantly renewable, with internal hydraulic generation being more than 70% of its energy matrix. The electricity rationing occurred in 2001 due to lack of rain, led the country to increase the participation of alternative energy sources. This need for new sources of energy makes the regional potential to be exploited, which configures the change of generation model from centralized generation to distributed generation. Among the alternative sources of energy, the solar energy is presented as very promising for Brazil, given that most of its territory is located near to the equator line, which implies days with greater number of hours of solar radiation. The state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN) has one of the highest levels of solar irradiation of the Brazilian territory, making it eligible to receive investments for the installation of photovoltaic solar plants. This thesis will present the state-of-the-art in solar photovoltaic power generation and will examine the potential for generation of solar photovoltaic power in Brazil and RN, based on solarimetrics measurements conducted by various institutions and also measurements performed in Natal, the state capital

Potássio lixiviado da palha de aveia-preta e milheto após a dessecação química

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a lixiviação de K da palha de aveia-preta (Avena strigosa) e de milheto (Pennisetum glaucum), utilizando-se chuva simulada em diferentes períodos após a dessecação química. As plantas foram cultivadas em vasos, e aos 50 dias da emergência foram manejadas com herbicida e submetidas à chuva simulada de 5 e 10 mm, aos 3, 6, 9, 12 e 15 dias após a dessecação (DAD). A quantidade de K lixiviado das palhas, considerando uma quantidade de palha equivalente a 8,0 t ha-1 de matéria seca, aumentou à medida que o estado de senescência das plantas evoluiu após a dessecação. Com a aplicação de 10 mm de chuva aos 15 DAD, a palha de aveia-preta disponibilizou, aproximadamente, 11,1 kg ha-1 de K. A água da chuva extrai maior quantidade de K da palha de aveia-preta em relação à palha de milheto, tanto com a lâmina de 5 mm como de 10 mm, e essas diferenças são maiores de acordo com o estado avançado de desidratação do material vegetal.