Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Listening to nature : techniques for large-scale monitoring of ecosystems using acoustics

Climate change and human activity are subjecting the environment to unprecedented rates of change. Monitoring these changes is an immense task that demands new levels of automated monitoring and analysis. We propose the use of acoustics as a proxy for the time consuming auditing of fauna, especially for determining the presence/absence of species. Acoustic monitoring is deceptively simple; seemingly all that is required is a sound recorder. However there are many major challenges if acoustics are to be used for large scale monitoring of ecosystems. Key issues are scalability and automation. This paper discusses our approach to this important research problem. Our work is being undertaken in collaboration with ecologists interested both in identifying particular species and in general ecosystem health.

Concurrent multi-scale modeling of civil infrastructures for analyses on structural deterioration—Part I : Modeling methodology and strategy

This paper aims to develop the methodology and strategy for concurrent finite element modeling of civil infrastructures at the different scale levels for the purposes of analyses of structural deteriorating. The modeling strategy and method were investigated to develop the concurrent multi-scale model of structural behavior (CMSM-of-SB) in which the global structural behavior and nonlinear damage features of local details in a large complicated structure could be concurrently analyzed in order to meet the needs of structural-state evaluation as well as structural deteriorating. In the proposed method, the “large-scale” modeling is adopted for the global structure with linear responses between stress and strain and the “small-scale” modeling is available for nonlinear damage analyses of the local welded details. A longitudinal truss in steel bridge decks was selected as a case to study how a CMSM-of-SB was developed. The reduced-scale specimen of the longitudinal truss was studied in the laboratory to measure its dynamic and static behavior in global truss and local welded details, while the multi-scale models using constraint equations and substructuring were developed for numerical simulation. The comparison of dynamic and static response between the calculated results by different models indicated that the proposed multi-scale model was found to be the most efficient and accurate. The verification of the model with results from the tested truss under the specific loading showed that, responses at the material scale in the vicinity of local details as well as structural global behaviors could be obtained and fit well with the measured results. The proposed concurrent multi-scale modeling strategy and implementation procedures were applied to Runyang cable-stayed bridge (RYCB) and the CMSM-of-SB of the bridge deck system was accordingly constructed as a practical application.

Concurrent multi-scale modeling of civil infrastructures for analyses on structural deteriorating—Part II : Model updating and verification

This paper is a continuation of the paper titled “Concurrent multi-scale modeling of civil infrastructure for analyses on structural deteriorating—Part I: Modeling methodology and strategy” with the emphasis on model updating and verification for the developed concurrent multi-scale model. The sensitivity-based parameter updating method was applied and some important issues such as selection of reference data and model parameters, and model updating procedures on the multi-scale model were investigated based on the sensitivity analysis of the selected model parameters. The experimental modal data as well as static response in terms of component nominal stresses and hot-spot stresses at the concerned locations were used for dynamic response- and static response-oriented model updating, respectively. The updated multi-scale model was further verified to act as the baseline model which is assumed to be finite-element model closest to the real situation of the structure available for the subsequent arbitrary numerical simulation. The comparison of dynamic and static responses between the calculated results by the final model and measured data indicated the updating and verification methods applied in this paper are reliable and accurate for the multi-scale model of frame-like structure. The general procedures of multi-scale model updating and verification were finally proposed for nonlinear physical-based modeling of large civil infrastructure, and it was applied to the model verification of a long-span bridge as an actual engineering practice of the proposed procedures.

Mentoring preservice teachers in primary mathematics

A literature-based instrument gathered data about 147 final-year preservice teachers’ perceptions of their mentors’ practices related to primary mathematics teaching. Five factors characterized effective mentoring practices in primary mathematics teaching had acceptable Cronbach alphas, that is, Personal Attributes (mean scale score=3.97, SD [standard deviation]=0.81), System Requirements (mean scale score=2.98, SD=0.96), Pedagogical Knowledge (mean scale score=3.61, SD=0.89), Modelling (mean scale score=4.03, SD=0.73), and Feedback (mean scale score=3.80, SD=0.86) were .91, .74, .94, .89, and .86 respectively. Qualitative data (n=44) investigated mentors’ perceptions of mentoring these preservice teachers, including identification of successful mentoring practices and ways to enhance practices.

Exploring product placement in video games : an investigation of recall effects

Despite its growth and prominence, product placement is generally under-researched and this is even more apparent in the area of placement in video gaming. This paper presents exploratory focus group research into this practice. Findings indicate that the introductory footage to a game provides placement opportunities with the highest level of recall, while peripheral non-action is the worst. Interestingly, recall also appears to be higher for individual brands as opposed to manufacturer brands.

The role of product involvement in e-service evaluations

This paper provides conceptual and empirical insights into consumers’ evaluations of online services and their consequent behavioural intentions. We show that behavioural intentions in online contexts are driven primarily by two factors, namely online service satisfaction and perceived service quality. Perceived sacrifice and service quality are found to have an indirect effect on online service satisfaction through their influences on perceived value associated with the online service. In addition, we examine the moderating effects of product involvement and discuss the implications of our research findings.

The development of a clinical learning environment scale

Within nursing, there is a strong demand for high-quality, cost-effective clinical education experiences that facilitate student learning in the clinical setting The clinical learning environment (CLE) is the interactive network of forces within the clinical setting that influence the students'clinical learning outcomes The identification of factors that characterize CLE could lead to strategies that foster the factors most predictive of desirable student learning outcomes and ameliorate those which may have a negative impact on student outcomes The CLE scale is a 23-item instrument with five subscales staff–student relationships, nurse manager commitment, patient relationships, interpersonal relationships, and student satisfaction These factors have strong substantive face validity and construct validity, as determined by confirmatory factor analysis Reliability coefficients range from high (0 85) to marginal (0 63) The CLE scale provides the educator with a valid and reliable instrument to evaluate affectively relevant factors in the CLE, direct resources to areas where improvement may be required, and nurture those areas functioning well It will assist in the application of resources in a cost-effective, efficient, productive manner, and will ensure that the clinical learning experience offers the nursing student the best possible learning outcomes

The Children's Depression Scale : assessment of factor structure with data from a normal population

A study investigated the reliability and construct validity of the Children's Depression Scale. The revised subscales were shown to have strong construct and face validity and high reliability.

Product placement in US and New Zealand television soap operas : an exploratory study

Although the soap opera as a television genre has consistently captured the imagination of millions of people around the world, surprisingly little has been written about it in the marketing literature. Understanding the consumption imagery in soaps may allow marketers to assess the relevance of product placement for their promotion strategy better, as well as providing valuable insight into the consumption habits of their considerable viewing audiences. Data were collected through content analysis from two soap operas, one in the USA and one in New Zealand. The results indicated a high level of consumption imagery, including brand references. Furthermore significant differences in the types of product and the emotional outcome of product use were found between the countries.