953 resultados para Probability of detection


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Within-site variability in species detectability is a problem common to many biodiversity assessments and can strongly bias the results. Such variability can be caused by many factors, including simple counting inaccuracies, which can be solved by increasing sample size, or by temporal changes in species behavior, meaning that the way the temporal sampling protocol is designed is also very important. Here we use the example of mist-netted tropical birds to determine how design decisions in the temporal sampling protocol can alter the data collected and how these changes might affect the detection of ecological patterns, such as the species-area relationship (SAR). Using data from almost 3400 birds captured from 21,000 net-hours at 31 sites in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we found that the magnitude of ecological trends remained fairly stable, but the probability of detecting statistically significant ecological patterns varied depending on sampling effort, time of day and season in which sampling was conducted. For example, more species were detected in the wet season, but the SAR was strongest in the dry season. We found that the temporal distribution of sampling effort was more important than its total amount, discovering that similar ecological results could have been obtained with one-third of the total effort, as long as each site had been equally sampled over 2 yr. We discuss that projects with the same sampling effort and spatial design, but with different temporal sampling protocol are likely to report different ecological patterns, which may ultimately lead to inappropriate conservation strategies.

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Abstract Background Smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPTB) accounts for 30% of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) cases reported annually in developing nations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) may provide an alternative for the rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB); however little data are available regarding the clinical utility of PCR in SNPTB, in a setting with a high burden of TB/HIV co-infection. Methods To evaluate the performance of the PCR dot-blot in parallel with pretest probability (Clinical Suspicion) in patients suspected of having SNPTB, a prospective study of 213 individuals with clinical and radiological suspicion of SNPTB was carried out from May 2003 to May 2004, in a TB/HIV reference hospital. Respiratory specialists estimated the pretest probability of active disease into high, intermediate, low categories. Expectorated sputum was examined by direct microscopy (Ziehl-Neelsen staining), culture (Lowenstein Jensen) and PCR dot-blot. Gold standard was based on culture positivity combined with the clinical definition of PTB. Results In smear-negative and HIV subjects, active PTB was diagnosed in 28.4% (43/151) and 42.2% (19/45), respectively. In the high, intermediate and low pretest probability categories active PTB was diagnosed in 67.4% (31/46), 24% (6/25), 7.5% (6/80), respectively. PCR had sensitivity of 65% (CI 95%: 50%–78%) and specificity of 83% (CI 95%: 75%–89%). There was no difference in the sensitivity of PCR in relation to HIV status. PCR sensitivity and specificity among non-previously TB treated and those treated in the past were, respectively: 69%, 43%, 85% and 80%. The high pretest probability, when used as a diagnostic test, had sensitivity of 72% (CI 95%:57%–84%) and specificity of 86% (CI 95%:78%–92%). Using the PCR dot-blot in parallel with high pretest probability as a diagnostic test, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were: 90%, 71%, 75%, and 88%, respectively. Among non-previously TB treated and HIV subjects, this approach had sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 91%, 79%, 81%, 90%, and 90%, 65%, 72%, 88%, respectively. Conclusion PCR dot-blot associated with a high clinical suspicion may provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of SNPTB mainly in patients that have not been previously treated attended at a TB/HIV reference hospital.

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Precipitation retrieval over high latitudes, particularly snowfall retrieval over ice and snow, using satellite-based passive microwave spectrometers, is currently an unsolved problem. The challenge results from the large variability of microwave emissivity spectra for snow and ice surfaces, which can mimic, to some degree, the spectral characteristics of snowfall. This work focuses on the investigation of a new snowfall detection algorithm specific for high latitude regions, based on a combination of active and passive sensors able to discriminate between snowing and non snowing areas. The space-borne Cloud Profiling Radar (on CloudSat), the Advanced Microwave Sensor units A and B (on NOAA-16) and the infrared spectrometer MODIS (on AQUA) have been co-located for 365 days, from October 1st 2006 to September 30th, 2007. CloudSat products have been used as truth to calibrate and validate all the proposed algorithms. The methodological approach followed can be summarised into two different steps. In a first step, an empirical search for a threshold, aimed at discriminating the case of no snow, was performed, following Kongoli et al. [2003]. This single-channel approach has not produced appropriate results, a more statistically sound approach was attempted. Two different techniques, which allow to compute the probability above and below a Brightness Temperature (BT) threshold, have been used on the available data. The first technique is based upon a Logistic Distribution to represent the probability of Snow given the predictors. The second technique, defined Bayesian Multivariate Binary Predictor (BMBP), is a fully Bayesian technique not requiring any hypothesis on the shape of the probabilistic model (such as for instance the Logistic), which only requires the estimation of the BT thresholds. The results obtained show that both methods proposed are able to discriminate snowing and non snowing condition over the Polar regions with a probability of correct detection larger than 0.5, highlighting the importance of a multispectral approach.

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OBJECTIVE In contrast to conventional breast imaging techniques, one major diagnostic benefit of breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the simultaneous acquisition of morphologic and dynamic enhancement characteristics, which are based on angiogenesis and therefore provide insights into tumor pathophysiology. The aim of this investigation was to intraindividually compare 2 macrocyclic MRI contrast agents, with low risk for nephrogenic systemic fibrosis, in the morphologic and dynamic characterization of histologically verified mass breast lesions, analyzed by blinded human evaluation and a fully automatic computer-assisted diagnosis (CAD) technique. MATERIALS AND METHODS Institutional review board approval and patient informed consent were obtained. In this prospective, single-center study, 45 women with 51 histopathologically verified (41 malignant, 10 benign) mass lesions underwent 2 identical examinations at 1.5 T (mean time interval, 2.1 days) with 0.1-mmol kg doses of gadoteric acid and gadobutrol. All magnetic resonance images were visually evaluated by 2 experienced, blinded breast radiologists in consensus and by an automatic CAD system, whereas the morphologic and dynamic characterization as well as the final human classification of lesions were performed based on the categories of the Breast imaging reporting and data system MRI atlas. Lesions were also classified by defining their probability of malignancy (morpho-dynamic index; 0%-100%) by the CAD system. Imaging results were correlated with histopathology as gold standard. RESULTS The CAD system coded 49 of 51 lesions with gadoteric acid and gadobutrol (detection rate, 96.1%); initial signal increase was significantly higher for gadobutrol than for gadoteric acid for all and the malignant coded lesions (P < 0.05). Gadoteric acid resulted in more postinitial washout curves and fewer continuous increases of all and the malignant lesions compared with gadobutrol (CAD hot spot regions, P < 0.05). Morphologically, the margins of the malignancies were different between the 2 agents, whereas gadobutrol demonstrated more spiculated and fewer smooth margins (P < 0.05). Lesion classifications by the human observers and by the morpho-dynamic index compared with the histopathologic results did not significantly differ between gadoteric acid and gadobutrol. CONCLUSIONS Macrocyclic contrast media can be reliably used for breast dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI. However, gadoteric acid and gadobutrol differed in some dynamic and morphologic characterization of histologically verified breast lesions in an intraindividual, comparison. Besides the standardization of technical parameters and imaging evaluation of breast MRI, the standardization of the applied contrast medium seems to be important to receive best comparable MRI interpretation.

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The aim of this study was to test a newly developed LED-based fluorescence device for approximal caries detection in vitro. We assembled 120 extracted molars without frank cavitations or fillings pairwise in order to create contact areas. The teeth were independently assessed by two examiners using visual caries detection (International Caries Detection and Assessment System, ICDAS), bitewing radiography (BW), laser fluorescence (LFpen), and LED fluorescence (Midwest Caries I.D., MW). The measurements were repeated at least 1 week later. The diagnostic performance was calculated with Bayesian analyses. Post-test probabilities were calculated in order to judge the diagnostic performance of combined methods. Reliability analyses were performed using kappa statistics for nominal data and intraclass correlation (ICC) for absolute data. Histology served as the gold standard. Sensitivities/specificities at the enamel threshold were 0.33/0.84 for ICDAS, 0.23/0.86 for BW, 0.47/0.78 for LFpen, and 0.32/0.87 for MW. Sensitivities/specificities at the dentine threshold were 0.04/0.89 for ICDAS, 0.27/0.94 for BW, 0.39/0.84 for LFpen, and 0.07/0.96 for MW. Reliability data were fair to moderate for MW and good for BW and LFpen. The combination of ICDAS and radiography yielded the best diagnostic performance (post-test probability of 0.73 at the dentine threshold). The newly developed LED device is not able to be recommended for approximal caries detection. There might be too much signal loss during signal transduction from the occlusal aspect to the proximal lesion site and the reverse.

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Documenting changes in distribution is necessary for understanding species' response to environmental changes, but data on species distributions are heterogeneous in accuracy and resolution. Combining different data sources and methodological approaches can fill gaps in knowledge about the dynamic processes driving changes in species-rich, but data-poor regions. We combined recent bird survey data from the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps) with historical distribution records to estimate potential changes in the distribution of eight species of Amazon parrots in Venezuela. Using environmental covariates and presence-only data from museum collections and the literature, we first used maximum likelihood to fit a species distribution model (SDM) estimating a historical maximum probability of occurrence for each species. We then used recent, NeoMaps survey data to build single-season occupancy models (OM) with the same environmental covariates, as well as with time- and effort-dependent detectability, resulting in estimates of the current probability of occurrence. We finally calculated the disagreement between predictions as a matrix of probability of change in the state of occurrence. Our results suggested negative changes for the only restricted, threatened species, Amazona barbadensis, which has been independently confirmed with field studies. Two of the three remaining widespread species that were detected, Amazona amazonica, Amazona ochrocephala, also had a high probability of negative changes in northern Venezuela, but results were not conclusive for Amazona farinosa. The four remaining species were undetected in recent field surveys; three of these were most probably absent from the survey locations (Amazona autumnalis, Amazona mercenaria and Amazona festiva), while a fourth (Amazona dufresniana) requires more intensive targeted sampling to estimate its current status. Our approach is unique in taking full advantage of available, but limited data, and in detecting a high probability of change even for rare and patchily-distributed species. However, it is presently limited to species meeting the strong assumptions required for maximum-likelihood estimation with presence-only data, including very high detectability and representative sampling of its historical distribution.

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The detection of signals in the presence of noise is one of the most basic and important problems encountered by communication engineers. Although the literature abounds with analyses of communications in Gaussian noise, relatively little work has appeared dealing with communications in non-Gaussian noise. In this thesis several digital communication systems disturbed by non-Gaussian noise are analysed. The thesis is divided into two main parts. In the first part, a filtered-Poisson impulse noise model is utilized to calulate error probability characteristics of a linear receiver operating in additive impulsive noise. Firstly the effect that non-Gaussian interference has on the performance of a receiver that has been optimized for Gaussian noise is determined. The factors affecting the choice of modulation scheme so as to minimize the deterimental effects of non-Gaussian noise are then discussed. In the second part, a new theoretical model of impulsive noise that fits well with the observed statistics of noise in radio channels below 100 MHz has been developed. This empirical noise model is applied to the detection of known signals in the presence of noise to determine the optimal receiver structure. The performance of such a detector has been assessed and is found to depend on the signal shape, the time-bandwidth product, as well as the signal-to-noise ratio. The optimal signal to minimize the probability of error of; the detector is determined. Attention is then turned to the problem of threshold detection. Detector structure, large sample performance and robustness against errors in the detector parameters are examined. Finally, estimators of such parameters as. the occurrence of an impulse and the parameters in an empirical noise model are developed for the case of an adaptive system with slowly varying conditions.

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The sudden hydrocarbon influx from the formation into the wellbore poses a serious risk to the safety of the well. This sudden influx is termed a kick, which, if not controlled, may lead to a blowout. Therefore, early detection of the kick is crucial to minimize the possibility of a blowout occurrence. There is a high probability of delay in kick detection, apart from other issues when using a kick detection system that is exclusively based on surface monitoring. Down-hole monitoring techniques have a potential to detect a kick at its early stage. Down-hole monitoring could be particularly beneficial when the influx occurs as a result of a lost circulation scenario. In a lost circulation scenario, when the down-hole pressure becomes lower than the formation pore pressure, the formation fluid may starts to enter the wellbore. The lost volume of the drilling fluid is compensated by the formation fluid flowing into the well bore, making it difficult to identify the kick based on pit (mud tank) volume observations at the surface. This experimental study investigates the occurrence of a kick based on relative changes in the mass flow rate, pressure, density, and the conductivity of the fluid in the down-hole. Moreover, the parameters that are most sensitive to formation fluid are identified and a methodology to detect a kick without false alarms is reported. Pressure transmitter, the Coriolis flow and density meter, and the conductivity sensor are employed to observe the deteriorating well conditions in the down-hole. These observations are used to assess the occurrence of a kick and associated blowout risk. Monitoring of multiple down-hole parameters has a potential to improve the accuracy of interpretation related to kick occurrence, reduces the number of false alarms, and provides a broad picture of down-hole conditions. The down-hole monitoring techniques have a potential to reduce the kick detection period. A down-hole assembly of the laboratory scale drilling rig model and kick injection setup were designed, measuring instruments were acquired, a frame was fabricated, and the experimental set-up was assembled and tested. This set-up has the necessary features to evaluate kick events while implementing down-hole monitoring techniques. Various kick events are simulated on the drilling rig model. During the first set of experiments compressed air (which represents the formation fluid) is injected with constant pressure margin. In the second set of experiments the compressed air is injected with another pressure margin. The experiments are repeated with another pump (flow) rate as well. This thesis consists of three main parts. The first part gives the general introduction, motivation, outline of the thesis, and a brief description of influx: its causes, various leading and lagging indicators, and description of the several kick detection systems that are in practice in the industry. The second part describes the design and construction of the laboratory scale down-hole assembly of the drilling rig and kick injection setup, which is used to implement the proposed methodology for early kick detection. The third part discusses the experimental work, describes the methodology for early kick detection, and presents experimental results that show how different influx events affect the mass flow rate, pressure, conductivity, and density of the fluid in the down-hole, and the discussion of the results. The last chapter contains summary of the study and future research.

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Auditory detection thresholds for certain frequencies of both amplitude modulated (AM) and frequency modulated (FM) dynamic auditory stimuli are associated with reading in typically developing and dyslexic readers. We present the first behavioral and molecular genetic characterization of these two auditory traits. Two extant extended family datasets were given reading tasks and psychoacoustic tasks to determine FM 2 Hz and AM 20 Hz sensitivity thresholds. Univariate heritabilities were significant for both AM (h2 = 0.20) and FM (h2 = 0.29). Bayesian posterior probability of linkage (PPL) analysis found loci for AM (12q, PPL = 81 %) and FM (10p, PPL = 32 %; 20q, PPL = 65 %). Bivariate heritability analyses revealed that FM is genetically correlated with reading, while AM was not. Bivariate PPL analysis indicates that FM loci (10p, 20q) are not also associated with reading.

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To assess binocular detection grating acuity using the LEA GRATINGS test to establish age-related norms in healthy infants during their first 3 months of life. In this prospective, longitudinal study of healthy infants with clear red reflex at birth, responses to gratings were measured at 1, 2, and 3 months of age using LEA gratings at a distance of 28 cm. The results were recorded as detection grating acuity values, which were arranged in frequency tables and converted to a one-octave scale for statistical analysis. For the repeated measurements, analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the detection grating acuity results between ages. A total of 133 infants were included. The binocular responses to gratings showed development toward higher mean values and spatial frequencies, ranging from 0.55 ± 0.70 cycles per degree (cpd), or 1.74 ± 0.21 logMAR, in month 1 to 3.11 ± 0.54 cpd, or 0.98 ± 0.16 logMAR, in month 3. Repeated ANOVA indicated differences among grating acuity values in the three age groups. The LEA GRATINGS test allowed assessment of detection grating acuity and its development in a cohort of healthy infants during their first 3 months of life.

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A novel capillary electrophoresis method using capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection is proposed for the determination of the biocide tetrakis(hydroxymethyl)phosphonium sulfate. The feasibility of the electrophoretic separation of this biocide was attributed to the formation of an anionic complex between the biocide and borate ions in the background electrolyte. Evidence of this complex formation was provided by (11) B NMR spectroscopy. A linear relationship (R(2) = 0.9990) between the peak area of the complex and the biocide concentration (50-900 μmol/L) was found. The limit of detection and limit of quantification were 15.0 and 50.1 μmol/L, respectively. The proposed method was applied to the determination of tetrakis(hydroxymethyl)phosphonium sulfate in commercial formulations, and the results were in good agreement with those obtained by the standard iodometric titration method. The method was also evaluated for the analysis of tap water and cooling water samples treated with the biocide. The results of the recovery tests at three concentration levels (300, 400, and 600 μmol/L) varied from 75 to 99%, with a relative standard deviation no higher than 9%.

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This paper describes a sequential injection chromatography procedure for determination of picloram in waters exploring the low backpressure of a 2.5 cm long monolithic C18 column. Separation of the analyte from the matrix was achieved in less than 60 s using a mobile phase composed by 20:80 (v v-1) acetonitrile:5.0 mmol L-1 H3PO4 and flow rate of 30 μL s-1. Detection was made at 223 nm with a 40 mm optical path length cell. The limits of detection and quantification were 33 and 137 μg L-1, respectively. The proposed method is sensitive enough to monitor the maximum concentration level for picloram in drinking water (500 μg L-1). The sampling frequency is 60 analyses per hour, consuming only 300 μL of acetonitrile per analysis. The proposed methodology was applied to spiked river water samples and no statistically significant differences were observed in comparison to a conventional HPLC-UV method.

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Background: Tissue Doppler may be used to quantify regional left ventricular function but is limited by segmental variation of longitudinal velocity from base to apex and free to septal walls. We sought to overcome this by developing a composite of longitudinal and radial velocities. Methods and Results. We examined 82 unselected patients undergoing a standard dobutamine echocardiogram. Longitudinal velocity was obtained in the basal and mid segments of each wall using tissue Doppler in the apical views. Radial velocities were derived in the same segments using an automated border detection system and centerline method with regional chords grouped according to segment location and temporally averaged. In 25 patients at low probability of coronary disease, the pattern of regional variation in longitudinal velocity (higher in the septum) was the opposite of radial velocity (higher in the free wall) and the combination was homogenous. In 57 patients undergoing angiography, velocity in abnormal segments was less than normal segments using longitudinal (6.0 +/- 3.6 vs 9.0 +/- 2.2 cm/s, P = .01) and radial velocity (6.0 +/- 4.0 vs 8.0 +/- 3.9 cm/s, P = .02). However, the composite velocity permitted better separation of abnormal and normal segments (13.3 +/- 5.6 vs 17.5 +/- 4.2 cm/s, P = .001). There was no significant difference between the accuracy of this quantitative approach and expert visual wall motion analysis (81% vs 84%, P = .56). Conclusion: Regional variation of uni-dimensional myocardial velocities necessitates site-specific normal ranges, probably because of different fiber directions. Combined analysis of longitudinal and radial velocities allows the derivation of a composite velocity, which is homogenous in all segments and may allow better separation of normal and abnormal myocardium.

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An antigen capture immunoassay to detect West Nile (WN) virus antigen in infected mosquitoes and avian tissues has been developed. With this assay purified WN virus was detected at a concentration of 32 pg/0.1 ml, and antigen in infected suckling mouse brain and laboratory-infected mosquito pools could be detected when the WN virus titer was 10(2.1) to 10(3.7) PFU/0.1 ml. In a blindly coded set of field-collected mosquito pools (n = 100), this assay detected WN virus antigen in 12 of 18 (66.7%) TaqMan-positive pools, whereas traditional reverse transcriptase PCR detected 10 of 18 (55.5%) positive pools. A sample set of 73 organ homogenates from naturally infected American crows was also examined by WN virus antigen capture immunoassay and TaqMan for the presence of WN virus. The antigen capture assay detected antigen in 30 of 34 (88.2%) TaqMan-positive tissues. Based upon a TaqMan-generated standard curve of infectious WN virus, the limit of detection in the antigen capture assay for avian tissue homogenates was approximately 10(3) PFU/0.1 ml. The recommended WN virus antigen capture protocol, which includes a capture assay followed by a confirmatory inhibition assay used to retest presumptive positive samples, could distinguish between the closely related WN and St. Louis encephalitis viruses in virus-infected mosquito pools and avian tissues. Therefore, this immunoassay demonstrates adequate sensitivity and specificity for surveillance of WN virus activity in mosquito vectors and avian hosts, and, in addition, it is easy to perform and relatively inexpensive compared with the TaqMan assay.