Graphical probabilistic analysis of the combination of items of evidence

Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the jointevaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, ratherthan systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable)propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative valueof a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual itemwithin a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To somedegree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inferencetasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particularcomplication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the referencemethod for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takesthis as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as frameworkwithin which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way.Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presentinginstances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness andcapacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multipleand interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference,their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawnto inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish thejoint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topicspresent aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because theyhave bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.

A Classification of Tools for Learning Logic

A table showing a comparison and classification of tools (intelligent tutoring systems) for e-learning of Logic at a college level.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part I): likelihood ratio calculation and case pre-assessment using Bayesian networks

Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.

Power supply noise and logic error probability

Voltage fluctuations caused by parasitic impedances in the power supply rails of modern ICs are a major concern in nowadays ICs. The voltage fluctuations are spread out to the diverse nodes of the internal sections causing two effects: a degradation of performances mainly impacting gate delays anda noisy contamination of the quiescent levels of the logic that drives the node. Both effects are presented together, in thispaper, showing than both are a cause of errors in modern and future digital circuits. The paper groups both error mechanismsand shows how the global error rate is related with the voltage deviation and the period of the clock of the digital system.

Probabilistic algorithms for blind adaptive multiuser detection

In this paper, two probabilistic adaptive algorithmsfor jointly detecting active users in a DS-CDMA system arereported. The first one, which is based on the theory of hiddenMarkov models (HMM’s) and the Baum–Wech (BW) algorithm,is proposed within the CDMA scenario and compared withthe second one, which is a previously developed Viterbi-basedalgorithm. Both techniques are completely blind in the sense thatno knowledge of the signatures, channel state information, ortraining sequences is required for any user. Once convergencehas been achieved, an estimate of the signature of each userconvolved with its physical channel response (CR) and estimateddata sequences are provided. This CR estimate can be used toswitch to any decision-directed (DD) adaptation scheme. Performanceof the algorithms is verified via simulations as well as onexperimental data obtained in an underwater acoustics (UWA)environment. In both cases, performance is found to be highlysatisfactory, showing the near–far resistance of the analyzed algorithms.

Revenue Logic inSoftware Business Context

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää ohjelmistotoimialan avaintekijöitä, jotka vaikuttavat yrityksen ansaintalogiikkaan sekä lisätä tietoisuutta ansaintalogiikan muodostumisesta pienissä ja keskisuurissa ohjelmistoyrityksissä. Tutkimuksen teoreettisessa osassa keskityttiin tarkastelemaan ansaintalogiikan, strategian ja liiketoimintamallin käsitteiden suhteita sekä arvioitiin toimialan osatekijöiden, hinnoitteluperiaatteiden ja ansaintamallien vaikutusta ansainnan muodostumiseen ohjelmistotoimialalla. Ohjelmistotuote ja - palveluliiketoimintaa koskien oli merkityksellistä tutkia tuotteistamisasteen ja arvoketjujen vaikutusta ansaintalogiikan muodostumisessa sekä esitellä erilaisia, tyypillisiä ohjelmistotoimialalla käytettäviä hinnoittelumenetelmiä. Työn empiirisessä osassa tarkasteltiin 23 suomalaisen ohjelmistoalan yrityksen ansaintalogiikkaa. Tiedot kerättiin haastatteluin ja analysoitiin laadullisen tutkimuksen keinoin. Tutkimustulokset korostivat ansaintalogiikan 'epämääräisyyttä' terminä mutta osoittivat, että ydinliiketoimintaan keskittyminen, tuote-, palvelu-, tai projektiliiketoiminnan osaaminen, tuotteistusaste ja kanavavalinnat ovat avaintekijöitä ansaintalogiikanmuodostumisessa. Ansaintalogiikan muodostamiseen liittyy paljon yrityksen sisäisiä ja ulkoisia haasteita sekä muutospaineita, eikä ohjelmistotoimialalla ole todennettavissa yhtä yleismaailmallista, menestyksen takaavaa ansaintalogiikkaa.

A mathematical study of fuzzy logic; an algebraic approach

Fuzzy set theory and Fuzzy logic is studied from a mathematical point of view. The main goal is to investigatecommon mathematical structures in various fuzzy logical inference systems and to establish a general mathematical basis for fuzzy logic when considered as multi-valued logic. The study is composed of six distinct publications. The first paper deals with Mattila'sLPC+Ch Calculus. THis fuzzy inference system is an attempt to introduce linguistic objects to mathematical logic without defining these objects mathematically.LPC+Ch Calculus is analyzed from algebraic point of view and it is demonstratedthat suitable factorization of the set of well formed formulae (in fact, Lindenbaum algebra) leads to a structure called ET-algebra and introduced in the beginning of the paper. On its basis, all the theorems presented by Mattila and many others can be proved in a simple way which is demonstrated in the Lemmas 1 and 2and Propositions 1-3. The conclusion critically discusses some other issues of LPC+Ch Calculus, specially that no formal semantics for it is given.In the second paper the characterization of solvability of the relational equation RoX=T, where R, X, T are fuzzy relations, X the unknown one, and o the minimum-induced composition by Sanchez, is extended to compositions induced by more general products in the general value lattice. Moreover, the procedure also applies to systemsof equations. In the third publication common features in various fuzzy logicalsystems are investigated. It turns out that adjoint couples and residuated lattices are very often present, though not always explicitly expressed. Some minor new results are also proved.The fourth study concerns Novak's paper, in which Novak introduced first-order fuzzy logic and proved, among other things, the semantico-syntactical completeness of this logic. He also demonstrated that the algebra of his logic is a generalized residuated lattice. In proving that the examination of Novak's logic can be reduced to the examination of locally finite MV-algebras.In the fifth paper a multi-valued sentential logic with values of truth in an injective MV-algebra is introduced and the axiomatizability of this logic is proved. The paper developes some ideas of Goguen and generalizes the results of Pavelka on the unit interval. Our proof for the completeness is purely algebraic. A corollary of the Completeness Theorem is that fuzzy logic on the unit interval is semantically complete if, and only if the algebra of the valuesof truth is a complete MV-algebra. The Compactness Theorem holds in our well-defined fuzzy sentential logic, while the Deduction Theorem and the Finiteness Theorem do not. Because of its generality and good-behaviour, MV-valued logic can be regarded as a mathematical basis of fuzzy reasoning. The last paper is a continuation of the fifth study. The semantics and syntax of fuzzy predicate logic with values of truth in ana injective MV-algerba are introduced, and a list of universally valid sentences is established. The system is proved to be semanticallycomplete. This proof is based on an idea utilizing some elementary properties of injective MV-algebras and MV-homomorphisms, and is purely algebraic.

Capitals, trajectòries i estratègies: la teoria general dels camps de P. Bourdieu

El model de classes de P. Bourdieu articula la dimensió objectiva —l’estructura de classe— i la dimensió subjectiva —l’acció de classe—. Aquesta anàlisi de classe forma part d’un debat al voltant de la naturalesa de la realitat social, en el qual el punt més important és la connexió del camp de la producció i del camp de la reproducció de subjectes. Bourdieu, en enfasitzar la condició relacional de l’àmbit social, defineix l’acció social com a dependent de l’estructura relacional, en existir una connexió lògica necessària entre la localització dels agents en un conjunt de relacions socials i els seus interessos, objectius i estratègies d’acció. Per tant, per a aquest autor, hi ha una eficàcia estructuradora de l’acció dels agents socials per l’estructura de classe, i es constitueix, així, en una matriu d’acció, o millor dit, en una estructura probabilística de l’acció. És, doncs, fonamental, considerar el paper de l’acció en la construcció de les classes en si, ja que les classes teòriques, agrupacions fictícies que només existeixen sobre el paper, estan predisposades a convertir-se en classes en el sentit marxista del terme. I sols es passa de la classe sobre el paper a clase real a costa d’una labor política de movilització. Així, l’existència de classes, tant en la teoria com en la realitat, és una aposta de lluites en existir un espai social, un espai de diferències, en el qual les classes existeixen en estat virtual, no com quelcom donat, sinó com quelcom que es tracta de construir.

Adding similarity-based reasoning capabilities to a Horn fragment of possibilistic logic with fuzzy constants

PLFC is a first-order possibilistic logic dealing with fuzzy constants and fuzzily restricted quantifiers. The refutation proof method in PLFC is mainly based on a generalized resolution rule which allows an implicit graded unification among fuzzy constants. However, unification for precise object constants is classical. In order to use PLFC for similarity-based reasoning, in this paper we extend a Horn-rule sublogic of PLFC with similarity-based unification of object constants. The Horn-rule sublogic of PLFC we consider deals only with disjunctive fuzzy constants and it is equipped with a simple and efficient version of PLFC proof method. At the semantic level, it is extended by equipping each sort with a fuzzy similarity relation, and at the syntactic level, by fuzzily “enlarging” each non-fuzzy object constant in the antecedent of a Horn-rule by means of a fuzzy similarity relation.

Formalizing argumentative reasoning in a possibilistic logic programming setting with fuzzy unification

Possibilistic Defeasible Logic Programming (P-DeLP) is a logic programming language which combines features from argumentation theory and logic programming, incorporating the treatment of possibilistic uncertainty at the object-language level. In spite of its expressive power, an important limitation in P-DeLP is that imprecise, fuzzy information cannot be expressed in the object language. One interesting alternative for solving this limitation is the use of PGL+, a possibilistic logic over Gödel logic extended with fuzzy constants. Fuzzy constants in PGL+ allow expressing disjunctive information about the unknown value of a variable, in the sense of a magnitude, modelled as a (unary) predicate. The aim of this article is twofold: firstly, we formalize DePGL+, a possibilistic defeasible logic programming language that extends P-DeLP through the use of PGL+ in order to incorporate fuzzy constants and a fuzzy unification mechanism for them. Secondly, we propose a way to handle conflicting arguments in the context of the extended framework.

A logic programming framework for possibilistic argumentation: formalization and logical properties

In the last decade defeasible argumentation frameworks have evolved to become a sound setting to formalize commonsense, qualitative reasoning. The logic programming paradigm has shown to be particularly useful for developing different argument-based frameworks on the basis of different variants of logic programming which incorporate defeasible rules. Most of such frameworks, however, are unable to deal with explicit uncertainty, nor with vague knowledge, as defeasibility is directly encoded in the object language. This paper presents Possibilistic Logic Programming (P-DeLP), a new logic programming language which combines features from argumentation theory and logic programming, incorporating as well the treatment of possibilistic uncertainty. Such features are formalized on the basis of PGL, a possibilistic logic based on G¨odel fuzzy logic. One of the applications of P-DeLP is providing an intelligent agent with non-monotonic, argumentative inference capabilities. In this paper we also provide a better understanding of such capabilities by defining two non-monotonic operators which model the expansion of a given program P by adding new weighed facts associated with argument conclusions and warranted literals, respectively. Different logical properties for the proposed operators are studied

Probabilistic electrical resistivity tomography of a CO2 sequestration analog

Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a well-established method for geophysical characterization and has shown potential for monitoring geologic CO2 sequestration, due to its sensitivity to electrical resistivity contrasts generated by liquid/gas saturation variability. In contrast to deterministic inversion approaches, probabilistic inversion provides the full posterior probability density function of the saturation field and accounts for the uncertainties inherent in the petrophysical parameters relating the resistivity to saturation. In this study, the data are from benchtop ERT experiments conducted during gas injection into a quasi-2D brine-saturated sand chamber with a packing that mimics a simple anticlinal geological reservoir. The saturation fields are estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of the measured data and compared to independent saturation measurements from light transmission through the chamber. Different model parameterizations are evaluated in terms of the recovered saturation and petrophysical parameter values. The saturation field is parameterized (1) in Cartesian coordinates, (2) by means of its discrete cosine transform coefficients, and (3) by fixed saturation values in structural elements whose shape and location is assumed known or represented by an arbitrary Gaussian Bell structure. Results show that the estimated saturation fields are in overall agreement with saturations measured by light transmission, but differ strongly in terms of parameter estimates, parameter uncertainties and computational intensity. Discretization in the frequency domain (as in the discrete cosine transform parameterization) provides more accurate models at a lower computational cost compared to spatially discretized (Cartesian) models. A priori knowledge about the expected geologic structures allows for non-discretized model descriptions with markedly reduced degrees of freedom. Constraining the solutions to the known injected gas volume improved estimates of saturation and parameter values of the petrophysical relationship. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.