Transformed generalized linear models

The estimation of data transformation is very useful to yield response variables satisfying closely a normal linear model, Generalized linear models enable the fitting of models to a wide range of data types. These models are based on exponential dispersion models. We propose a new class of transformed generalized linear models to extend the Box and Cox models and the generalized linear models. We use the generalized linear model framework to fit these models and discuss maximum likelihood estimation and inference. We give a simple formula to estimate the parameter that index the transformation of the response variable for a subclass of models. We also give a simple formula to estimate the rth moment of the original dependent variable. We explore the possibility of using these models to time series data to extend the generalized autoregressive moving average models discussed by Benjamin er al. [Generalized autoregressive moving average models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 98, 214-223]. The usefulness of these models is illustrated in a Simulation study and in applications to three real data sets. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Copula-based regression models: A survey

In this review paper we collect several results about copula-based models, especially concerning regression models, by focusing on some insurance applications. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Likelihood ratio tests for variance components in linear mixed models

Although the asymptotic distributions of the likelihood ratio for testing hypotheses of null variance components in linear mixed models derived by Stram and Lee [1994. Variance components testing in longitudinal mixed effects model. Biometrics 50, 1171-1177] are valid, their proof is based on the work of Self and Liang [1987. Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood tests under nonstandard conditions. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 82, 605-610] which requires identically distributed random variables, an assumption not always valid in longitudinal data problems. We use the less restrictive results of Vu and Zhou [1997. Generalization of likelihood ratio tests under nonstandard conditions. Ann. Statist. 25, 897-916] to prove that the proposed mixture of chi-squared distributions is the actual asymptotic distribution of such likelihood ratios used as test statistics for null variance components in models with one or two random effects. We also consider a limited simulation study to evaluate the appropriateness of the asymptotic distribution of such likelihood ratios in moderately sized samples. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bias-corrected estimators for dispersion models with dispersion covariates

In this paper we discuss bias-corrected estimators for the regression and the dispersion parameters in an extended class of dispersion models (Jorgensen, 1997b). This class extends the regular dispersion models by letting the dispersion parameter vary throughout the observations, and contains the dispersion models as particular case. General formulae for the O(n(-1)) bias are obtained explicitly in dispersion models with dispersion covariates, which generalize previous results obtained by Botter and Cordeiro (1998), Cordeiro and McCullagh (1991), Cordeiro and Vasconcellos (1999), and Paula (1992). The practical use of the formulae is that we can derive closed-form expressions for the O(n(-1)) biases of the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression and dispersion parameters when the information matrix has a closed-form. Various expressions for the O(n(-1)) biases are given for special models. The formulae have advantages for numerical purposes because they require only a supplementary weighted linear regression. We also compare these bias-corrected estimators with two different estimators which are also bias-free to order O(n(-1)) that are based on bootstrap methods. These estimators are compared by simulation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Local power of some tests in exponential family nonlinear models

In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions up to order n(-1/2) for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in exponential family nonlinear models (Cordeiro and Paula, 1989), under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the dispersion parameter, thus generalising the results given in Cordeiro et al. (1994) and Ferrari et al. (1997). We also present Monte Carlo simulations in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methodological issues in applying Location Models to Rural areas

Location Models are usedfor planning the location of multiple service centers in order to serve a geographicallydistributed population. A cornerstone of such models is the measure of distancebetween the service center and a set of demand points, viz, the location of thepopulation (customers, pupils, patients and so on). Theoretical as well asempirical evidence support the current practice of using the Euclidian distancein metropolitan areas. In this paper, we argue and provide empirical evidencethat such a measure is misleading once the Location Models are applied to ruralareas with heterogeneous transport networks. This paper stems from the problemof finding an optimal allocation of a pre-specified number of hospitals in alarge Swedish region with a low population density. We conclude that the Euclidianand the network distances based on a homogenous network (equal travel costs inthe whole network) give approximately the same optimums. However networkdistances calculated from a heterogeneous network (different travel costs indifferent parts of the network) give widely different optimums when the numberof hospitals increases.  In terms ofaccessibility we find that the recent closure of hospitals and the in-optimallocation of the remaining ones has increased the average travel distance by 75%for the population. Finally, aggregation the population misplaces the hospitalsby on average 10 km.

Analysis Of Semi-Distributed And Global Hydrological Models In The Central Tropical Basins Of The Gulf Of Mexico To The Effects Of Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena

In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Uma análise de aspectos relacionados ao desenvolvimento e adoção de Enterprise Resources Planning livre de código aberto

Sistemas Integrados de Gestão ou Enterprise Resources Planning - ERP possibilitam o processamento das informações necessárias em uma empresa usando um único banco de dados. Muito tem se escrito sobre este tipo de software, abordando questões como o alto custo da aquisição de licenças, e a dependência de consultoria para a sua adaptação e implantação nas empresas. Atualmente vem crescendo o desenvolvimento e uso de ERP Livre de Código Aberto (FOS-ERP). Porém verifica-se que este tipo de sistema ainda não é suficientemente explorado, mesmo no meio acadêmico. Este artigo relata alguns trabalhos publicados sobre o assunto e levanta questões que devem ser tratadas por pesquisadores e demais interessados para adequar e viabilizar o uso desses sistemas conforme a realidade nacional. Assim, após uma introdução ao tema, são apresentadas algumas diferenças entre o FOS-ERP e seus equivalentes proprietários (Proprietary ERP ou P-ERP) em termos de modelos de negócios, seleção, customização e evolução. em seguida são elencados alguns desafios e oportunidades que o FOS-ERP pode oferecer a usuários, fornecedores, pesquisadores e colaboradores individuais. Concluindo, este artigo busca ampliar a discussão sobre FOS-ERP, destacando fatores tais como seu potencial de inovação tecnológica e estratégias de negócios.

Reactive power dispatch and planning using a non-linear branch-and-bound algorithm

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Efficient method for AC transmission network expansion planning

A combinatorial mathematical model in tandem with a metaheuristic technique for solving transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) using an AC model associated with reactive power planning (RPP) is presented in this paper. AC-TNEP is handled through a prior DC model while additional lines as well as VAr-plants are used as reinforcements to cope with real network requirements. The solution of the reinforcement stage can be obtained by assuming all reactive demands are supplied locally to achieve a solution for AC-TNEP and by neglecting the local reactive sources, a reactive power planning (RPP) will be managed to find the minimum required reactive power sources. Binary GA as well as a real genetic algorithm (RCA) are employed as metaheuristic optimization techniques for solving this combinatorial TNEP as well as the RPP problem. High quality results related with lower investment costs through case studies on test systems show the usefulness of the proposal when working directly with the AC model in transmission network expansion planning, instead of relaxed models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapid Prototyping applied to surgical planning for correcting craniofacial malformations in wild animals. A case study of a brazilian fox

Veterinary surgery for treatment of wild animals is becoming an increasingly demanding task because it involves animals of different anatomy, many of them are already stressed and treatment must be performed to the highest standard in the minimum period of time. Craniofacial alterations may occur for three main reasons: genetic, functional or a combination of both. It is possible to modify the functional cause using intraoral devices like inclined plane. The treatment planning can be made based on virtual 3D models and rapid prototyping. An approximately 9 months old, 3.7 kg male Brazilian fox (Lycalopex vetulus) was referred to the Veterinary Hospital. Physical examination showed malocclusion with a deviation of the mandible to the right side. The virtual 3D model of the head was generated based on CT image data. The 3D models and rapid prototyping opened up new possibilities for the surgical planning and treatment of wild animals.

Constructive heuristic algorithm in branch-and-bound structure applied to transmission network expansion planning

A constructive heuristic algorithm to solve the transmission system expansion planning problem is proposed with the aim of circumventing some critical problems of classical heuristic algorithms that employ relaxed mathematical models to calculate a sensitivity index that guides the circuit additions. The proposed heuristic algorithm is in a branch-and-bound algorithm structure, which can be used with any planning model, such as Transportation model, DC model, AC model or Hybrid models. Tests of the proposed algorithm are presented on real Brazilian systems.

Branch and bound algorithm for transmission system expansion planning using a transportation model

A method for optimal transmission network expansion planning is presented. The transmission network is modelled as a transportation network. The problem is solved using hierarchical Benders decomposition in which the problem is decomposed into master and slave subproblems. The master subproblem models the investment decisions and is solved using a branch-and-bound algorithm. The slave subproblem models the network operation and is solved using a specialised linear program. Several alternative implementations of the branch-and-bound algorithm have been rested. Special characteristics of the transmission expansion problem have been taken into consideration in these implementations. The methods have been tested on various test systems available in the literature.

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in demand

This paper presents two mathematical models and one methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand. The first model analyzed the uncertainty in the system as a whole; then, this model considers the uncertainty in the total demand of the power system. The second one analyzed the uncertainty in each load bus individually. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The models presented are solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand.