Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

The Relationship Between Liquidity, Trading Activity and Return - Studies of the Finnish and Swedish Stock Markets

Liquidity, or how easy an investment is to buy or sell, is becoming increasingly important for financial market participants. The objective of this dissertation is to contribute to the understanding of how liquidity affects financial markets. The first essays analyze the actions taken by underwriters immediately after listing to improve liquidity of IPO stock. To estimate the impact of underwriter activity on the pricing of the IPOs, the order book during the first weeks of trading in the IPO stock is studied. Evidence of stabilization and liquidity enhancing activities by underwriters is found. The second half of the dissertation is concerned with the daily trading of stocks where liquidity may be impacted by policy issues such as changes in taxes or exchange fees and by opening the access to the markets for foreign investors. The desirability of a transaction tax on securities trading is addressed. An increase in transaction tax is found to cause lower prices and higher volatility. In the last essay the objective is to determine if the liquidity of a security has an impact on the return investors require. The results support the notion that returns are negatively correlated to liquidity.

The Gendered Social Organisation of Defence: Two Ethnographic Case Studies in the Finnish Defence Forces

In Finland the organising of defence is undergoing vast restructuring. Recent legislation has redefined the central tasks of the Finnish Defence Forces. At the same time, international security cooperation, economic pressures and new administrative paradigms have steered the military towards new ways of organising. National defence is not just politics and principles; to a large extent it is also enacted in day-to-day life in organisations. The lens through which these realities of defence are analysed in this study is gender. How is the security sector – and national defence as part of it – organised in the changing security environment? What is the new division of labour between different societal actors in the face of security challenges? What happens ‘at work’ within the military and the defence sector more broadly? How does gender affect the way in which defence is organised and understood, and how do the changes in the organising of security affect gender relations? The thesis searches for answers to these questions in the context of two organisational settings in the male-dominated defence sector. The case study on a Finnish peacekeeping unit in the Balkans opens a critical view on men’s social practices and the everyday life of crisis management organisations. In the second case study, reorganising of provisioning in the Finnish Defence Forces turns out to be a complicated process where different power relations and social divisions intermingle. Tallberg’s extensive ethnographic fieldwork in the two focal organisations has produced a detailed set of data that lays the basis for critical analysis and policy development in terms of defence organising, cooperation around peace and security issues, and gender equality in organisations. Observations and results are provided for understanding social networks, militarisation, authority relations, care, public-private partnerships, personnel policies, career planning, and humour.

Relationship Drivers in Provider - Consumer Relationships. Empirical Studies of Customer Loyalty Programs (första upplagan slutsåld / first edition sold out, 'print on demand' 60 €)

The study addressed a phenomenon that has become common marketing practice, customer loyalty programs. Although a common type of consumer relationship, there is limited knowledge of its nature. The purpose of the study was to create structured understanding of the nature of customer relationships from both the provider’s and the consumer’s viewpoints by studying relationship drivers and proposing the concept of relational motivation as a provider of a common framework for the analysis of these views. The theoretical exploration focused on reasons for engaging in customer relationships for both the consumer and the provider. The themes of buying behaviour, industrial and network marketing and relationship marketing, as well as the concepts of a customer relationship, customer loyalty, relationship conditions, relational benefits, bonds and commitment were explored and combined in a new way. Concepts from the study of business-to-business relationships were brought over and their power in explaining the nature of consumer relationships examined. The study provided a comprehensive picture of loyalty programs, which is an important contribution to the academic as well as the managerial discussions. The consumer study provided deep insights into the nature of customer relationships. The study provides a new frame of reference to support the existing concepts of loyalty and commitment with the introduction of the relationship driver and relational motivation concepts. The result is a novel view of the nature of customer relationships that creates new understanding of the forces leading to loyal behaviour and commitment. The study concludes with managerial implications.

Studies on follicular atresia: role of gonadotropins and gonadal steroids in regulating cathepsin-D activity of preovulatory follicles in the rat

Preovulatory follicular atresia was studied using pregnant mare serum gonadotropin (PMSG)-primed rats (15 IU/rat) which were deprived of hormonal support either by allowing the metabolic clearance of the PMSG or by injecting a specific PMSG antiserum (PMSG a/s). Atresia was monitored by an increase in lysosomal cathepsin-D activity and a decrease in the receptor activity of the granulosa cells (GC) isolated from the preovulatory follicles. It was shown that the increase in lysosomal activity and the decrease in receptor activity seen at 96 h after PMSG (or PMSG plus PMSG a/s) could be arrested both by follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH). Injection of cyanoketone or clomiphene citrate together with FSH/LH prevented this 'rescue' suggesting a role for estrogens in the regulation of atresia. Although the administration of estradiol-17 beta (20 micrograms/rat) together with PMSG a/s could show a 'rescue effect' in terms of reduction in cathepsin-D activity the gonadotropin receptor activities of these granulosa cells were not restored. The injection of dihydrotestosterone (DHT) to 48 h PMSG-primed rats induced atresia as noted by an increase in cathepsin-D activity. However, the exogenous administration of FSH along with DHT prevented this atretic effect suggesting that DHT is not having a direct effect on atresia. Determination of androgen: estrogen content of the granulosa cells and an analysis of the individual profile of androgen and estrogen revealed that the increase in cathepsin-D activity could be correlated only with the decrease in GC estrogen content. This along with the observation that GC showed a loss of estrogen synthesis well before the increase in cathepsin-D activity strongly points out that the lack of estrogen rather than an increase in androgen is the principle factor responsible for the atresia of preovulatory follicles in the rat.

Studies on follicular growth in the immature rat and hamster: Effect of a single injection of gonadotropin or estrogen on the rate of3H-thymidine incorporation into ovarian DNAin vitro

Initiation of follicular growth by specific hormonal stimuli in ovaries of immature rats and hamsters was studied by determining the rate of incorporation of3H-thymidine into ovarian DNAin vitro. Incorporation was considered as an index of DNA synthesis and cell multiplication. A single injection of pregnant mare serum gonadotropin could thus maximally stimulate by 18 hr3H-thymidine incorporation into DNA of the ovary of immature hamsters. Neutralization of pregnant mare serum gonadotropin by an antiserum to ovine follicle stimulating hormone only during the initial 8–10 hr and not later could inhibit the increase in3H-thymidine incorporationin vitro observed at 18 hr, suggesting that the continued presence of gonadotropin stimulus was not necessary for this response. The other indices of follicular growth monitored such as ovarian weight, serum estradiol and uterine weight showed discernible increase at periods only after the above initial event. A single injection of estrogen (diethyl stilbesterol or estradiol-l7β) could similarly cause 18 hr later, a stimulation in the rate of incorporation of3H-thymidine into DNAin vitro in ovaries of immature rats. The presence of endogenous gonadotropins, however, was obligatory for observing this response to estrogen. Evidence in support of the above was two-fold: (i) administration of antiserum to follicle stimulating hormone or luteinizing hormone along with estrogen completely inhibited the increase in3H-thymidine incorporation into ovarian DNAin vitro; (ii) a radioimmunological measurement revealed following estrogen treatment, the presence of a higher concentration of endogenous follicle stimulating hormone in the ovary. Finally, administration of varying doses of ovine follicle stimulating hormone along with a constant dose of estrogen to immature rats produced a dose-dependent increment in the incorporation of3H-thymidine into ovarian DNAin vitro. These observations suggested the potentiality of this system for developing a sensitive bioassay for follicle stimulating hormone.

Studies on the metabolism of l-menthol in rats

Metabolism of l-menthol in rats was investigated both in vivo and in vitro. Metabolites isolated and characterized from the urine of rats after oral administration (800 mg/kg of body weight/day) of l-menthol were the following: p-menthane-3,8-diol (II), p-menthane-3,9-diol (III), 3,8-oxy-p-menthane-7-carboxylic acid (IV), and 3,8-dihyroxy-p-menthane-7-carboxylic acid (V). In vivo, the major urinary metabolites were compounds II and V. Repeated oral administration (800 mg/kg of body weight/day) of l-menthol to rats for 3 days resulted in the increase of both liver microsomal cytochrome P-450 content and NADPH-cytochrome c reductase activity by nearly 80%. Further treatment (for 7 days total) reduced their levels considerably, although the levels were still higher than the control values. Both cytochrome b5 and NADH-cytochrome c reductase levels were not changed during the 7 days of treatment. Rat liver microsomes readily converted l-menthol to p-menthane-3,8-diol (II) in the presence of NADPH and O2. This activity was significantly higher in microsomes obtained from phenobarbital (PB)-induced rats than from control microsomal preparations, whereas 3-methylcholanthrene (3-MC)-induced microsomes failed to convert l-menthol to compound II in the presence of NADPH and O2. l-Menthol elicited a type I spectrum with control (Ks = 60.6 microM) and PB-induced (Ks = 32.3 microM) microsomes whereas with 3MC-induced microsomes it produced a reverse type I spectrum.

The politics of forest bureaucracy as a subject of comparative studies.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Pain measurement and management in elderly patients : Clinical studies in long term hospital care and after cardiac surgery

The proportion of patients over 75 years of age, receiving all different types of healthcare, is constantly increasing. The elderly undergo surgery and anaesthetic procedures more often than middle-aged patients. Poor pain management in the elderly is still an issue. Although the elderly consumes the greatest proportion of prescribed medicines in Western Europe, most clinical pharmacological studies have been performed in healthy volunteers or middle-aged patients. The aim of this study was to investigate pain measurement and management in cognitively impaired patients in long term hospital care and in cognitively normal elderly patients after cardiac surgery. This thesis incorporated 366 patients, including 86 home-dwelling or hospitalized elderly with chronic pain and 280 patients undergoing cardiac surgery with acute pain. The mean age of patients was 77 (SD ± 8) years and approximately 8400 pain measurements were performed with four pain scales: Verbal Rating Scale (VRS), the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), the Red Wedge Scale (RWS), and the Facial Pain Scale (FPS). Cognitive function, depression, functional ability in daily life, postoperative sedation and postoperative confusion were assessed with MMSE, GDS, Barthel Index, RASS, and CAM-ICU, respectively. The effects and plasma concentrations of fentanyl and oxycodone were measured in elderly (≥ 75 years) and middle-aged patients (≤ 60 years) and the opioid-sparing effect of pregabalin was studied after cardiac surgery. The VRS pain scores after movement correlated with the Barthel Index. The VRS was most successful in the groups of demented patients (MMSE 17-23, 11-16 and ≤ 10) and in elderly patients on the first day after cardiac surgery. The elderly had a higher plasma concentration of fentanyl at the end of surgery than younger patients. The plasma concentrations of oxycodone were comparable between the groups. Pain intensity on the VRS was lower and the sedation scores were higher in the elderly. Total oxycodone consumption during five postoperative days was reduced by 48% and the CAM-ICU scores were higher on the first postoperative day in the pregabalin group. The incidence of postoperative pain during movement was lower in the pregabalin group three months after surgery. This investigation demonstrates that chronic pain did not seem to impair daily activities in home-dwelling Finnish elderly. The VRS appeared to be applicable for elderly patients with clear cognitive dysfunction (MMSE ≤17) and it was the most feasible pain scale for the early postoperative period after cardiac surgery. After cardiac surgery, plasma concentrations of fentanyl in elderly were elevated, although oxycodone concentrations were at similar level compared to middle-aged patients. The elderly had less pain and were more sedated after doses of oxycodone. Therefore, particular attention must be given to individual dosing of the opioids in elderly surgical patients, who often need a smaller amount for adequate analgesia than middle-aged patients. The administration of pregabalin reduced postoperative oxycodone consumption after cardiac surgery. Pregabalin-treated patients had less confusion, and additionally to less postoperative pain on the first postoperative day and during movement at three months post-surgery. Pregabalin might be a new alternative as analgesic for acute postoperative and chronic pain management in the elderly. Its clinical role and safety remains to be verified in large-scale randomized and controlled studies. In the future, many clinical trials in the older category of patients will be needed to facilitate improvements in health care methods.

Effect of chronic administration of Tamoxifen on fertility in male bonnet monkeys (Macaca radiata)

Administration of Tamoxifen via the Alzet pump at a rate of 50 mu g hr(-1) for 90 days in the adult male bonnet monkeys Macaca radiata had no effect on the serum testosterone concentration determined at 10 AM and 10 PM as well as total sperm count determined at 15-day intervals over a period of 260 days. However, a significant reduction in sperm motility was observed beyond 90 days up until the 225th day. Breeding studies conducted from day 90 to 260 revealed that these males were infertile.

Simulation studies on Performance parameters of a TPC Polarimeter

X-ray polarimeters based on Time Projection Chamber (TPC) geometry are currently being studied and developed to make sensitive measurement of polarization in 2-10keV energy range. TPC soft X-ray polarimeters exploit the fact that emission direction of the photoelectron ejected via photoelectric effect in a gas proportional counter carries the information of the polarization of the incident X-ray photon. Operating parameters such as pressure, drift field and drift-gap affect the performance of a TPC polarimeter. Simulations presented here showcase the effect of these operating parameters on the modulation factor of the TPC polarimeter. Models of Garfield are used to study photoelectron interaction in gas and drift of electron cloud towards Gas Electron Multiplier (GEM). The emission direction is reconstructed from the image and modulation factor is computed. Our study has shown that Ne/DME (50/50) at lower pressure and drift field can be used for a TPC polarimeter with modulation factor of 50-65%.

Design and administration of activity-travel diaries: a case study from Bengaluru city in India

Studies on travel survey instrument design and administration in the context of Indian cities are limited despite the fact that these aspects of travel survey face unique challenges here when compared to the cities in the developed world. Here we report results of a pilot survey conducted for evaluating the performances, alternative diary formats and survey administration techniques in Bengaluru city, India. The study proposes two diary formats. `Diary-1' is in day-planner format and is a variant of the one reported earlier in the literature. `Diary-2' is derived as a combination of `Diary-1' and the trip-based diaries widely applied in Indian cities. `Face-to-face', and `drop-off and pick-up' methods of survey administration are considered for retrieving the activity-travel information of individuals. Evidence appears to be strong that diary-2 is preferable to diary-1 for collecting the travel details of individuals. The comparison of the retrieval methods suggests that the face-to-face method of instrument administration is superior to the drop-off and pick-up method in terms of higher response rates and minimum recording errors.

Annual report 2001 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Tenth meeting, Victoria, B.C., Canada, October 5-13, 2001

Report of Opening Session (pdf 42 KB) Report of Governing Council Meeting (pdf 89 KB) Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board (pdf 88 KB) Study Group on North Pacific Ecosystem Status Report and Regional Analysis Center Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 57 KB) Working Group 14: Effective sampling of micronekton Advisory Panel on Marine Birds and Mammals Fishery Science Committee (pdf 37 KB) Working Group 16: Climate change, shifts to fish production, and fisheries management Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 62 KB) Working Group 15: Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the North Pacific Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 34 KB) Working Group 13: CO2 in the North Pacific Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 24 KB) Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 39 KB) BASS Task Team (pdf 32 KB) Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment MODEL Task Team (pdf 22 KB) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 32 KB) Advisory Panel on Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey in the North Pacific REX Task Team (pdf 21 KB) Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 53 KB) List of Participants (pdf 67 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 13 KB)

Annual report 1996 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Fifth meeting, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada, October 11-20, 1996

Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Meeting Agenda Report of Opening Session Report of Governing Council Meetings Reports of Science Board and Committees Science Board Working Group 5: Bering Sea (Final Report) Working Group 9: Subarctic Pacific Monitoring Report of the First Meeting Report of the Second Meeting Biological Oceanography Committee Working Group 11: Consumption of Marine Resources by Marine Birds and Mammals Fishery Science Committee Working Group 12: Crabs and Shrimps Marine Environmental Quality Committee Working Group 8: Practical Assessment Methodology Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee Working Group 10: Circulation and Ventilation in the Japan Sea /East Sea and its Adjacent Areas Technological Committee on Data Exchange Finance and Administration Report of Finance and Administration Committee Assets on 31st of December, 1995 Income and Expenditures for 1995 Budget for 1997 Composition of the Organization Officers, Delegates, Finance and Administration Committee, Science Board, Secretariat, Scientific and Technical Committees List of Participants List of Acronyms (Document has 163 pages.)