Air flow influences on local climate: observed and simulated mean relationships for the United Kingdom

Synoptic-scale air flow variability over the United Kingdom is measured on a daily time scale by following previous work to define 3 indices: geostrophic flow strength, vorticity and direction. Comparing the observed distribution of air flow index values with those determined from a simulation with the Hadley Centre’s global climate model (HadCM2) identifies some minor systematic biases in the model’s synoptic circulation but demonstrates that the major features are well simulated. The relationship between temperature and precipitation from parts of the United Kingdom and these air flow indices (either singly or in pairs) is found to be very similar in both the observations and model output; indeed the simulated and observed precipitation relationships are found to be almost interchangeable in a quantitative sense. These encouraging results imply that some reliability can be assumed for single grid-box and regional output from this climate model; this applies only to those grid boxes evaluated here (which do not have high or complex orography), only to the portion of variability that is controlled by synoptic air flow variations, and only to those surface variables considered here (temperature and precipitation).

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed.

Synthesis and biological evaluation of a polyglutamic acid-dopamine conjugate: a new antiangiogenic agent

Dopamine has previously been shown to inhibit angiogenesis in vitro and in vivo, but its clinical applications in this context are severely limited by its short half-life. Here we report the synthesis of a polyglutamic acid-dopamine conjugate and show that conjugation significantly extends (from 1 to 24 h) dopamine’s antiangiogenic activity in vitro and in vivo. These findings form the basis for the development of a new class of agents for the treatment of angiogenesis-dependent diseases.

Synthesis and glycosidase inhibitory profiles of functionalised morpholines and oxazepanes

In this work libraries of morpholines and oxazepanes have been prepared via the reductive amination reaction between dialdehydes, derived from carbohydrates, and a range of amines. In this way, functionalised morpholines and oxazepanes have been prepared that include N-alkylated derivatives, disaccharide analogues, and ester containing derivatives. The abilities of these functionalised morpholines and oxazepanes to inhibit a broad panel of glycosidase enzymes, that are associated with a range of diseases, have been probed and in this way new inhibitors of a range of glycosidases, but particularly β-d-galactosidase derived from Bovine kidney, have been discovered. N-Alkyl morpholines demonstrated the best inhibition profiles for this enzyme and derivatives (15a)–(15d) acted as non-competitive inhibitors with IC50 values of 55.1–88.6 μM. Within this study, some preliminary structure–activity relationships are proposed, and it is demonstrated that N-substituted morpholines display better inhibitory profiles for the enzymes analysed than any of the N-substituted oxazepanes.

Antibiotic resistance genes, integrons and multiple antibiotic resistance in thirty-five serotypes of Salmonella enterica isolated from humans and animals in the UK

Objectives: To examine 397 strains of Salmonella enterica of human and animal origin comprising 35 serotypes for the presence of aadB, aphAI-IAB, aadA1, aadA2, bla(Carb(2)) or pse1, bla(Tem), cat1, cat2, dhfr1, floR, strA, sul1, sul2, tetA(A), tetA(B) and tetA(G) genes, the presence of class 1 integrons and the relationship of resistance genes to integrons and antibiotic resistance. Results: Some strains were resistant to ampicillin (91), chloramphenicol (85), gentamicin (2), kanamycin (14), spectinomycin (81), streptomycin (119), sulfadiazine (127), tetracycline (108) and trimethoprim (45); 219 strains were susceptible to all antibiotics. bla(Carb(2)), floR and tetA(G) genes were found in S. Typhimurium isolates and one strain of S. Emek only. Class 1 integrons were found in S. Emek, Haifa, Heidelberg, Mbandaka, Newport, Ohio, Stanley, Virchow and in Typhimurium, mainly phage types DT104 and U302. These strains were generally multi-resistant to up to seven antibiotics. Resistance to between three and six antibiotics was also associated with class 1 integron-negative strains of S. Binza, Dublin, Enteritidis, Hadar, Manhattan, Mbandaka, Montevideo, Newport, Typhimurium DT193 and Virchow. Conclusion: The results illustrate specificity of some resistance genes to S. Typhimurium or non- S. Typhimurium serotypes and the involvement of both class 1 integron and non-class 1 integron associated multi-resistance in several serotypes. These data also indicate that the bla(Carb(2)), floR and tetA(G) genes reported in the SG1 region of S. Typhimurium DT104, U302 and some other serotypes are still predominantly limited to S. Typhimurium strains.

A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change

This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered here – which gives a 50% chance of remaining below a 2oC temperature rise target - reduces impacts by 20-65% by 2100 relative to a ‘business-as-usual’ pathway (A1B) which reaches 4oC, and can delay impacts by several decades. Effects vary between sector and region, and there are few noticeable effects of mitigation policy by 2030. The impacts avoided by 2100 are more strongly influenced by the date and level at which emissions peak than the rate of decline of emissions, with an earlier and lower emissions peak avoiding more impacts. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided at the global scale is relatively robust despite uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change, but the absolute amount of avoided impacts is considerably more variable and therefore uncertain.

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall global increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions scenarios. The impacts of projected land use changes are also simulated, but have relatively minor impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition. Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in the future. Our results suggest that we should stop looking for a single answer regarding whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future climate, since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and direction of change, and the land management practices that can be implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks.

Preparation and ring-opening reactions of N-diphenylphosphinyl vinyl aziridines

Predominantly (E)-N-diphenylphosphinyl vinyl aziridines are prepared by a reaction of N-diphenylphosphinyl imines with α-bromoallyllithium in the presence of freshly fused ZnCl2. These aziridines undergo a ring-opening reaction with a variety of carbon and heteronucleophiles, in good yield, and generally with good regioselectivity.

The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions.

Opening up climate research: A linked data approach to publishing data provenance

Traditionally, the formal scientific output in most fields of natural science has been limited to peer- reviewed academic journal publications, with less attention paid to the chain of intermediate data results and their associated metadata, including provenance. In effect, this has constrained the representation and verification of the data provenance to the confines of the related publications. Detailed knowledge of a dataset’s provenance is essential to establish the pedigree of the data for its effective re-use, and to avoid redundant re-enactment of the experiment or computation involved. It is increasingly important for open-access data to determine their authenticity and quality, especially considering the growing volumes of datasets appearing in the public domain. To address these issues, we present an approach that combines the Digital Object Identifier (DOI) – a widely adopted citation technique – with existing, widely adopted climate science data standards to formally publish detailed provenance of a climate research dataset as an associated scientific workflow. This is integrated with linked-data compliant data re-use standards (e.g. OAI-ORE) to enable a seamless link between a publication and the complete trail of lineage of the corresponding dataset, including the dataset itself.