Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investi gating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones), rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably) a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

A framework for assessing social policy inclusion proposals

This document outlines a framework that could be used by government agencies in assessing policy interventions aimed at achieving social outcomes from government construction contracts. The framework represents a rational interpretation of the information gathered during the multi-outcomes construction policies project. The multi-outcomes project focused on the costs and benefits of using public construction contracts to promote the achievement of training and employment and public art objectives. The origin of the policy framework in a cost-benefit appraisal of current policy interventions is evidenced by its emphasis on sensitivity to policy commitment and project circumstances (especially project size and scope).The quantitative and qualitative analysis conducted in the multi-outcomes project highlighted, first, that in the absence of strong industry commitment to policy objectives, policy interventions typically result in high levels of avoidance activity, substantial administrative costs and very few benefits. Thus, for policy action on, for example, training or local employment to be successful compliance issues must be adequately addressed. Currently it appears that pre-qualification schemes (similar to the Priority Access Scheme) and schemes that rely on measuring, for example, the training investments of contractors within particular projects do not achieve high levels of compliance and involve significant administrative costs. Thus, an alternative is suggested in the policy framework developed here: a levy on each public construction project – set as a proportion of the total project costs. Although a full evaluation of this policy alternative was beyond the scope of the multi-outcomes construction policies project, it appears to offer the potential to minimize the transaction costs on contractors whilst enabling the creation of a training agency dedicated to improving the supply of skilled construction labour. A recommendation is thus made that this policy alternative be fully researched and evaluated. As noted above, the outcomes of the multi-outcomes research project also highlighted the need for sensitivity to project circumstances in the development and implementation of polices for public construction projects. Ideally a policy framework would have the flexibility to respond to circumstances where contractors share a commitment to the policy objectives and are able to identify measurable social outcomes from the particular government projects they are involved in. This would involve a project-by-project negotiation of goals and performance measures. It is likely to only be practical for large, longer term projects.

Post-traumatic stress disorder in response to HIV infection

This study investigated the psychological impact of HIV infection through assessment of posttraumatic stress disorder in response to HIV infection. Sixty-one HIV-positive homosexual/bisexual men were assessed for posttraumatic stress disorder in response to HIV infection (PTSD-HIV) using a modified PTSD module of the DIS-III-R. Thirty percent met criteria for a syndrome of posttraumatic stress disorder in response to HIV diagnosis (PTSD-HIV). In over one-third of the PTSD cases, the disorder had an onset greater than 6 months after initial HIV infection diagnosis. PTSD-HIV was associated with other psychiatric diagnoses, particularly the development of first episodes of major depression after HIV infection diagnosis. PTSD-HIV was significantly associated with a pre-HIV history of PTSD from other causes, and other pre-HIV psychiatric disorders and neuroticism scores, indicating a similarity with findings in studies of PTSD from other causes. The findings from this preliminary study suggest that a PTSD response to HIV diagnosis has clinical validity and requires further investigation in this population and other medically ill groups. The results support the inclusion of the diagnosis of life-threatening illness as a traumatic incident that may lead to a posttraumatic stress disorder, which is consistent with the DSM-IV criteria.

Expression of Potato virus Y cytoplasmic inclusion protein in tobacco results in disorganization of parenchyma cells, distortion of epidermal cells, and induces mitochondrial and chloroplast abnormalities, formation of membrane whorls and atypical lipid accumulation

Infection of plant cells by potyviruses induces the formation of cytoplasmic inclusions ranging in size from 200 to 1000 nm. To determine if the ability to form these ordered, insoluble structures is intrinsic to the potyviral cytoplasmic inclusion protein, we have expressed the cytoplasmic inclusion protein from Potato virus Y in tobacco under the control of the chrysanthemum ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase small subunit promoter, a highly active, green tissue promoter. No cytoplasmic inclusions were observed in the leaves of transgenic tobacco using transmission electron microscopy, despite being able to clearly visualize these inclusions in Potato virus Y infected tobacco leaves under the same conditions. However, we did observe a wide range of tissue and sub-cellular abnormalities associated with the expression of the Potato virus Y cytoplasmic inclusion protein. These changes included the disruption of normal cell morphology and organization in leaves, mitochondrial and chloroplast internal reorganization, and the formation of atypical lipid accumulations. Despite these significant structural changes, however, transgenic tobacco plants were viable and the results are discussed in the context of potyviral cytoplasmic inclusion protein function.

Language and Inclusion in Mainstream Classrooms

Understanding what the teacher says or what is written in texts used in class is a key to academic engagement. Yet, for students who are learning the medium of instruction as an additional language, understanding is often elusive. The study reported in this chapter looked at how African middle school students and parents, and educators in Australian schools, talked about problems of understanding, and responsibility for redressing these, at intensive language school and in transition to a mainstream Australian high school. In general, participants assumed students should signal confusion and teachers should resolve it. However, student talk of current and past anxiety about asking for help in class warrants attention. Challenges include: (1) the need to create receptive peer environments for asking questions; and (2) to recognise when it is inappropriate to rely on students signalling confusion.

Sodium 2-nitrocinnamate dihydrate: a one-dimensional hydrogen-bonded coordination polymer

The title compound catena-poly[aqua-mu3-2-nitrocinnamato], [Na(C9H6NO4)(H2O)2]n, the sodium salt of trans-2-nitrocinnamic acid, is a one-dimensional coordination polymer based on six-coordinate octahedral NaO6 centres comprising three facially-related monodentate carboxylate O-atom donors from separate ligands (all bridging)[Na-O, 2.4370(13)-2.5046(13)A] and three water molecules (two bridging, one monodentate) [Na-O, 2.3782(13)-2.4404(17)A]. The structure is also stabilized by intra-chain water-O-H...O(carboxylate) and O-H...O(nitro) hydrogen bonds.

Zero- one- and two-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures in the 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid with the monocyclic heteroaromatic Lewis bases 2-aminopyrimidine, nicotinamide and isonicotinamide

The structures of the anhydrous 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid (DCPA) with the monocyclic heteroaromatic Lewis bases 2-aminopyrimidine, 3-(aminocarboxy) pyridine (nicotinamide) and 4-(aminocarbonyl) pyridine (isonicotinamide), namely 2-aminopyrimidinium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate C4H6N3+ C8H3Cl2O4- (I), 3-(aminocarbonyl) pyridinium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate C6H7N2O+ C8H3Cl2O4- (II) and the unusual salt adduct 4-(aminocarbonyl) pyridinium 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate 2-carboxymethyl-4,5-dichlorobenzoic acid (1/1/1) C6H7N2O+ C8H3Cl2O4-.C9H6Cl2O4 (III) have been determined at 130 K. Compound (I) forms discrete centrosymmetric hydrogen-bonded cyclic bis(cation--anion) units having both R2/2(8) and R2/1(4) N-H...O interactions. In compound (II) the primary N-H...O linked cation--anion units are extended into a two-dimensional sheet structure via amide-carboxyl and amide-carbonyl N-H...O interactions. The structure of (III) reveals the presence of an unusual and unexpected self-synthesized methyl monoester of the acid as an adduct molecule giving one-dimensional hydrogen-bonded chains. In all three structures the hydrogen phthalate anions are

The inclusion of first aid in an injury prevention curriculum

Prompt first aid can have considerable benefits. The Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) program aims to teach, in part, first aid skills along with additional injury prevention strategies. The approach to including first aid is both as an injury prevention strategy and a way in which to reduce the severity of injuries once they occur. This paper outlines an implementation trial of the SPIY program with particular emphasis on the delivery and implementation of first aid skills. SPIY demonstrated effectiveness with regard to first aid knowledge and as an injury prevention program. SPIY is taught in the Year 9 Health curriculum by HPE teachers. Students and teachers who undergo or deliver such training offer important perspectives about implementation. In addition independent observation of delivery provides further information about the program. The research aimed to examine teachers‟ and students‟ experiences of first aid activities within a school-based injury prevention and control program and identify key issues in delivery from independent observation of the program. Focus groups were held with 8 teachers who delivered, and 70 students who participated in the SPIY curriculum program. Results showed favourable reports on the delivery of first aid material however teachers noted challenges in delivering practical activities. In sum, first aid can be effectively implemented within the high school setting and both students and teachers identified multiple benefits and positive experiences after undertaking first aid training.

Knowing a donor and identifying as one : determinants of people's willingness for related and anonymous living donation in Australia

While LRD (living donation to a genetically/emotionally related recipient) is well established in Australia, LAD (living anonymous donation to a stranger) is rare. Given the increasing use of LAD overseas, Australia may likely follow suit. Understanding the determinants of people’s willingness for LAD is essential but infrequently studied in Australia. Consequently, we compared the determinants of people’s LRD and LAD willingness, and assessed whether these determinants differed according to type of living donation. We surveyed 487 health students about their LRD and LAD willingness, attitudes, identity, prior experience with blood and organ donation, deceased donation preference, and demographics. We used Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to identify the determinants of willingness for LRD and LAD and paired sample t-tests to examine differences in LRD and LAD attitudes, identity, and willingness. Mean differences in willingness (LRD 5.93, LAD 3.92), attitudes (LRD 6.43, LAD 5.53), and identity (LRD 5.69, LAD 3.58) were statistically significant. Revised SEM models provided a good fit to the data (LRD: x2 (41) = 67.67, p = 0.005, CFI = 0.96, RMSEA = 0.04; LAD: x2 (40) = 79.64, p < 0.001, CFI = 0.95, RMSEA = 0.05) and explained 45% and 54% of the variation in LRD and LAD willingness, respectively. Four common determinants of LRD and LAD willingness emerged: identity, attitude, past blood donation, and knowing a deceased donor. Religious affiliation and deceased donation preference predicted LAD willingness also. Identifying similarities and differences in these determinants can inform future efforts aimed at understanding people’s LRD and LAD willingness and the evaluation of potential living donor motives. Notably, this study highlights the importance of people’s identification as a living donor as a motive underlying their willingness to donate their organs while living.

One size doesn't fit all. Exploring marketing strategies for influencing three dimensions of brand loyalty

Brand loyalty is a concept that has garnered considerable interest over recent years from both marketing practitioners and academics alike. While marketers are primarily interested in ways they can generate and increase brand loyalty from their customers, academics strive to conducts research which investigates the antecedents and consequences of customer loyalty (See DeWitt, Nguyen and Marshall 2008; Russell-Bennett, McColl-Kennedy and Coote 2007).

Skin preparation with alcohol versus alcohol followed by any antiseptic for preventing bacteraemia or contamination of blood for transfusion (Review)

Background: Blood for transfusion may become contaminated at any point between collection and transfusion and may result in bacteraemia (the presence of bacteria in the blood),severe illness or even death for the blood recipient. Donor arm skin is one potential source of blood contamination, so it is usual to cleanse the skin with an antiseptic before blood donation. One-step and two-step alcohol based antiseptic regimens are both commonly advocated but there is uncertainty as to which is most effective.----- Objectives: To assess the effects of cleansing the skin of blood donors with alcohol in a one-step compared with alcohol in a two-step procedure to prevent contamination of collected blood or bacteraemia in the recipient.----- Search strategy: We searched the Cochrane Wounds Group Specialised Register (March 10 2009); The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials(CENTRAL) The Cochrane Library 2009, Issue 1; Ovid MEDLINE - (1950 to February Week 4 2009); Ovid EMBASE - (1980 to 2009 Week 9); and EBSCO CINAHL - (1982 to February Week 4 2009). We also searched the reference lists of key papers.----- Selection criteria: All randomised trials (RCTs) comparing alcohol based donor skin cleansing in a one-step versus a two-step process that includes alcohol and any other antiseptic for pre-venepuncture skin cleansing were considered. Quasi randomised trials were to have been considered in the absence of RCTs.----- Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently assessed studies for inclusion.----- Main results: No studies (RCTs or quasi RCTs) met the inclusion criteria. Authors’ conclusions We did not identify any eligible studies for inclusion in this review. It is therefore unclear whether a two-step, alcohol followed by antiseptic skin cleansing process prior to blood donation confers any reduction in the risk of blood contamination or bacteraemia in blood recipients, or conversely whether a one-step process increases risk above that associated with a two-step process.

Youth, Sport and the Social Inclusion Agenda

The purpose of this paper is to assess aspects of the British Government's attempts to use sporting participation as a vehicle to re-integrate socially disadvantaged, excluded and 'at-risk' youth into mainstream society. A number of organisations, policy-makers, commentators, and practitioners with a stake in the 'sport and social inclusion agenda' were interviewed. General agreement was found on a number of points: that the field was overly crowded with policies, programmes and initiatives; that the field worked in a 'bottom-up' way, with the most significant factor determining success being effective local workers with good networks and cultural access; that the dichotomising rhetoric of inclusion/exclusion was counter-productive; that the notion of the 'at-risk youth' was problematic and unhelpful; and that they all now dealt with a marketplace, where 'clients' had to be enrolled in their own reformation. There was also disagreement on a number of points: that policy acts as a relatively accurate template for practice, as opposed to the argument that it was simply regarded as a cluster of suggestions for practice; that policy was exceptionally piecemeal in its formulation and application, as opposed to regarding policy as necessarily targeted and dispersed; and that the inclusion agenda was largely politically driven and transitory, as opposed to the optimistic view that it had become ingrained in local practice. Finally, the paper examines some issues that are the most likely points of contribution by researchers in the area: that more research needs to be done on the processes of identity formation associated with participation in sport; that more effective programme evaluation needs to be done for such forms of governmental intervention to work properly; and that the relationship between different kinds of physical activity and social and personal change needs to be more thoroughly theorised.

Efficient one-round key exchange in the standard model

We consider one-round key exchange protocols secure in the standard model. The security analysis uses the powerful security model of Canetti and Krawczyk and a natural extension of it to the ID-based setting. It is shown how KEMs can be used in a generic way to obtain two different protocol designs with progressively stronger security guarantees. A detailed analysis of the performance of the protocols is included; surprisingly, when instantiated with specific KEM constructions, the resulting protocols are competitive with the best previous schemes that have proofs only in the random oracle model.