Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Specifics in Applying Agile Software Methodologies in Portal Solutions

Agile methodologies are becoming more popular in the software development process nowadays. The iterative development lifecycle, openness to frequent changes, tight cooperation with the client and among the software engineers are turning into more and more effective practices and respond to a higher extend to the current business needs. It is natural to raise the question which methodology is the most suitable for use when starting and managing a project. This depends on many factors—product characteristics, technologies used, client’s and developer’s experience, project type. A systematic analysis of the most common problems appearing when developing a particular type of projects—public portal solutions, is proposed. In the case at hand a very close interaction with various types of end users is observed. This is a prerequisite for permanent changes during the development and support cycles, which makes them ideal candidates for using an agile methodology. We will compare the ways in which each methodology addresses the specific problems arising and will finish with ranking them according to their relevance. This might help the project manager in choosing one or a combination of the methodologies.

Please Stop Rubbing Your Relationship In My Face(book): An Investigation of Online Romantic Social Comparison

It is well-documented that social networking sites such as Facebook set the stage for social comparison. Such comparison has been linked to a number of negative outcomes including envy, negative moods, and lower self-esteem. The present research aims to extend current understanding of online social comparison by investigating how it pertains to romantic relationships. I hypothesized that for individuals high in attachment anxiety (compared to those low in this construct), online romantic social comparison might be related to negative consequences—which, in the current project, was operationalized as lower mood/affect and state self-esteem. Further, I hypothesized that there would be an interaction between attachment anxiety and relationship insecurities on these negative outcomes, such that the expected difference of attachment anxiety would be more pronounced under conditions priming relationship insecurities, relative to a control condition. Two experiments were conducted, one of which focused on single individuals, and the second focusing on individuals who were themselves in dating relationships. The paradigms of each entailed experimental manipulation of a key relationship-related variable (for single individuals, pessimism for future relationships; for dating individuals, the presence or absence of rejection threat), subsequent exposure to romantic content from Facebook, and finally, measures of affect and state self-esteem. I discovered partial support for the hypothesis that some single individuals—particularly those with higher, rather than lower, attachment anxiety—do indeed report feeling more negative moods and lower state self-esteem following exposure to romantic online content, in contrast to single individuals who had instead viewed neutral online content. The association between attachment anxiety and negative outcome was especially pertinent if individuals had been primed to believe that their own future romantic prospects were grim, or if attention had been drawn to their singleness. Among dating individuals, less support for hypotheses was found; however, exploratory post-hoc analyses revealed a promising (albeit weak) trend indicating that reinvestigation of the current hypotheses would be prudent.

Plato’s Parmenides and understanding the One in the philosophy of Plotinus: an oversight by Heidegger?

The present article focuses on the study of the exegesis by Plotinus with regard to the meaning of the ineffability of the one provided in Plato’s Parmenides in the first hypothesis. He places this first ineffable one at the very centre of his system, which would have important implications from both an ontological point of view and with regard to understanding the language. The conception of reality that derives from the ineffability of the first principle and the implications for the nature of philosophical language that this postulate raises will be the centre of our reflections. To shed light on the position set down in the Enneads, we will review the key points based on the original texts that deal with this issue and related critical works. We will also look at the contemporary relevance of this position and its ability to go beyond the Heideggerian critique of metaphysics.

The Devil and Views on the “Other” in Part One of Pedro Cieza de León’s "Crónica del Perú" (1553)

Many 16th century Spanish chroniclers and missionaries, arriving at what they interpreted as a New World, saw the Devil as a “hermeneutic wildcard” that allowed them to comprehend indigenous religions. Pedro Cieza de León, a soldier in the conquest of Peru, is a case in point. Cieza considers the Devil responsible for the most aberrant religious practices and customs of the Indians, although he views the natives in a positive light, as men susceptible to divine salvation. From a providentialist perspective of the history of the conquest, Cieza interprets that the evangelization and conversion of the Indians and the implantation of Christian civilization by the Spanish Crown, were able to defeat the Devil.

Cost-effectiveness of natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care: a report from the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) study

AIMS: Prevention of cardiovascular disease and heart failure (HF) in a cost-effective manner is a public health goal. This work aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of the St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure (STOP-HF) intervention.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a substudy of 1054 participants with cardiovascular risk factors [median age 65.8 years, interquartile range (IQR) 57.8:72.4, with 4.3 years, IQR 3.4:5.2, follow-up]. Annual natriuretic peptide-based screening was performed, with collaborative cardiovascular care between specialist physicians and general practitioners provided to patients with BNP levels >50 pg/mL. Analysis of cost per case prevented and cost-effectiveness per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was performed. The primary clinical endpoint of LV dysfunction (LVD) with or without HF was reduced in intervention patients [odds ratio (OR) 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.94; P = 0.026]. There were 157 deaths and/or emergency hospitalizations for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in the control group vs. 102 in the intervention group (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.49-0.93; P = 0.01). The cost per case of LVD/HF prevented was €9683 (sensitivity range -€843 to €20 210), whereas the cost per MACE prevented was €3471 (sensitivity range -€302 to €7245). Cardiovascular hospitalization savings offset increased outpatient and primary care costs. The cost per QALY gain was €1104 and the intervention has an 88% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of €30 000.

CONCLUSION: Among patients with cardiovascular risk factors, natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care reduced LVD, HF, and MACE, and has a high probability of being cost-effective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00921960.

Natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care for heart failure:the STOP-HF randomized trial

IMPORTANCE: Prevention strategies for heart failure are needed.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of a screening program using brain-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and collaborative care in an at-risk population in reducing newly diagnosed heart failure and prevalence of significant left ventricular (LV) systolic and/or diastolic dysfunction.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The St Vincent's Screening to Prevent Heart Failure Study, a parallel-group randomized trial involving 1374 participants with cardiovascular risk factors (mean age, 64.8 [SD, 10.2] years) recruited from 39 primary care practices in Ireland between January 2005 and December 2009 and followed up until December 2011 (mean follow-up, 4.2 [SD, 1.2] years).

INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive usual primary care (control condition; n=677) or screening with BNP testing (n=697). Intervention-group participants with BNP levels of 50 pg/mL or higher underwent echocardiography and collaborative care between their primary care physician and specialist cardiovascular service.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was prevalence of asymptomatic LV dysfunction with or without newly diagnosed heart failure. Secondary end points included emergency hospitalization for arrhythmia, transient ischemic attack, stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral or pulmonary thrombosis/embolus, or heart failure.

RESULTS: A total of 263 patients (41.6%) in the intervention group had at least 1 BNP reading of 50 pg/mL or higher. The intervention group underwent more cardiovascular investigations (control, 496 per 1000 patient-years vs intervention, 850 per 1000 patient-years; incidence rate ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.61-1.83; P<.001) and received more renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system-based therapy at follow-up (control, 49.6%; intervention, 56.5%; P=.01). The primary end point of LV dysfunction with or without heart failure was met in 59 (8.7%) of 677 in the control group and 37 (5.3%) of 697 in the intervention group (odds ratio [OR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.37-0.82; P = .003). Asymptomatic LV dysfunction was found in 45 (6.6%) of 677 control-group patients and 30 (4.3%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37-0.88; P = .01). Heart failure occurred in 14 (2.1%) of 677 control-group patients and 7 (1.0%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.20-1.20; P = .12). The incidence rates of emergency hospitalization for major cardiovascular events were 40.4 per 1000 patient-years in the control group vs 22.3 per 1000 patient-years in the intervention group (incidence rate ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.45-0.81; P = .002).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Among patients at risk of heart failure, BNP-based screening and collaborative care reduced the combined rates of LV systolic dysfunction, diastolic dysfunction, and heart failure.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00921960.

Progression of left atrial volume index in a population at risk for heart failure:a substudy of the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) trial

AIMS: Limited data are available concerning the evolution of the left atrial volume index (LAVI) in pre-heart failure (HF) patients. The aim of this study was to investigate clinical characteristics and serological biomarkers in a cohort with risk factors for HF and evidence of serial atrial dilatation.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a prospective substudy within the framework of the STOP-HF cohort (NCT00921960) involving 518 patients with risk factors for HF electively undergoing serial clinical, echocardiographic, and natriuretic peptide assessment. Mean follow-up time between assessments was 15 ± 6 months. 'Progressors' (n = 39) were defined as those with serial LAVI change ≥3.5 mL/m(2) (and baseline LAVI between 20 and 34 mL/m(2)). This cut-off was derived from a calculated reference change value above the biological, analytical, and observer variability of serial LAVI measurement. Multivariate analysis identified significant baseline clinical associates of LAVI progression as increased age, beta-blocker usage, and left ventricular mass index (all P < 0.05). Serological biomarkers were measured in a randomly selected subcohort of 30 'Progressors' matched to 30 'Non-progressors'. For 'Progressors', relative changes in matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP1), and the TIMP1/MMP9 ratio, markers of interstitial remodelling, tracked with changes in LAVI over time (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: Accelerated LAVI increase was found to occur in up to 14% of all pre-HF patients undergoing serial echocardiograms over a relatively short follow-up period. In a randomly selected subcohort of 'Progressors', changes in LAVI were closely linked with alterations in MMP9, TIMP1, and the ratio of these enzymes, a potential aid in highlighting this at-risk group.

Effect of web holes on web crippling strength of cold-formed steel channel sections under end-one-flange loading condition – Part I: Tests and finite element analysis

Web openings could be used in cold-formed steel beam members, such as wall studs or floor joints, to facilitate ease of services in buildings. In this paper, a combination of tests and non-linear finite element analyses is used to investigate the effect of such holes on web crippling under end-one-flange (EOF) loading condition; the cases of both flanges fastened and unfastened to the bearing plates are considered. The results of 74 web crippling tests are presented, with 22 tests conducted on channel sections without web openings and 52 tests conducted on channel sections with web openings. In the case of the tests with web openings, the hole was either located centred above the bearing plates or having a horizontal clear distance to the near edge of the bearing plates. A good agreement between the tests and finite element analyses was obtained in term of both strength and failure modes.

Effect of web holes on web crippling strength of cold-formed steel channel sections under end-one-flange loading condition - Part II: Parametric study and proposed design equations

A parametric study of cold-formed steel sections with web openings subjected to web crippling under end-one-flange (EOF) loading condition is undertaken, using finite element analysis, to investigate the effects of web holes and cross-section sizes. The holes are located either centred above the bearing plates or with a horizontal clear distance to the near edge of the bearing plates. It was demonstrated that the main factors influencing the web crippling strength are the ratio of the hole depth to the depth of the web, the ratio of the length of bearing plates to the flat depth of the web and the location of the holes as defined by the distance of the hole from the edge of the bearing plate divided by the flat depth of web. In this study, design recommendations in the form of web crippling strength reduction factor equations are proposed, which are conservative when compared with the experimental and finite element results.

Staff training in autism: The one-eyed wo/man….

Having well-trained staff is key to ensuring good quality autism services, especially since people affected with autism generally tend to have higher support needs than other populations in terms of daily living as well as their mental and physical health. Poorly-trained staff can have detrimental effects on service provision and staff morale and can lead to staff burn-out as well as increased service user anxiety and stress. This paper reports on a survey with health, social care, and education staff who work within the statutory autism services sector in the UK that explored their knowledge and training with regards to autism. Interview data obtained from staff and service users offer qualitative illustrations of survey findings. Overall, the findings expose an acute lack of autism specific training that has detrimental impacts. At best this training was based on brief and very basic awareness raising rather than on in-depth understanding of issues related to autism or skills for evidence-based practice. Service users were concerned with the effects that lack of staff training had on the services they received. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy routes to achieving quality staff training based on international best practice. The focus is on improving the quality of life and mental health for services users and staff as well as making potentially significant cost-savings for governments.

Incidence and clinicobiologic characteristics of leukemic B-cell chronic lymphoproliferative disorders with more than one B-cell clone.

Leukemic B-chronic lymphoproliferative disorders (B-CLPDs) are generally believed to derive from a monoclonal B cell; biclonality has only occasionally been reported. In this study, we have explored the incidence of B-CLPD cases with 2 or more B-cell clones and established both the phenotypic differences between the coexisting clones and the clinicobiologic features of these patients. In total, 53 B-CLPD cases with 2 or more B-cell clones were studied. Presence of 2 or more B-cell clones was suspected by immunophenotype and confirmed by molecular/genetic techniques in leukemic samples (n = 42) and purified B-cell subpopulations (n = 10). Overall, 4.8% of 477 consecutive B-CLPDs had 2 or more B-cell clones, their incidence being especially higher among hairy cell leukemia (3 of 13), large cell lymphoma (2 of 10), and atypical chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (4 of 29). In most cases the 2 B-cell subsets displayed either different surface immunoglobulin (sIg) light chain (n = 37 of 53) or different levels of the same sIg (n = 9 of 53), usually associated with other phenotypic differences. Compared with monoclonal cases, B-CLL patients with 2 or more clones had lower white blood cell (WBC) and lymphocyte counts, more frequently displayed splenomegaly, and required early treatment. Among these, the cases in which a CLL clone coexisted with a non-CLL clone were older and more often displayed B symptoms, a monoclonal component, and diffuse infiltration of bone marrow and required early treatment more frequently than cases with monoclonal CLL or 2 CLL clones.