Climatic records over the past 30 ka from temperate Australia – a synthesis from the Oz-INTIMATE workgroup

Temperate Australia sits between the heat engine of the tropics and the cold Southern Ocean, encompassing a range of rainfall regimes and falling under the influence of different climatic drivers. Despite this heterogeneity, broad-scale trends in climatic and environmental change are evident over the past 30 ka. During the early glacial period (∼30–22 ka) and the Last Glacial Maximum (∼22–18 ka), climate was relatively cool across the entire temperate zone and there was an expansion of grasslands and increased fluvial activity in regionally important Murray–Darling Basin. The temperate region at this time appears to be dominated by expanded sea ice in the Southern Ocean forcing a northerly shift in the position of the oceanic fronts and a concomitant influx of cold water along the southeast (including Tasmania) and southwest Australian coasts. The deglacial period (∼18–12 ka) was characterised by glacial recession and eventual disappearance resulting from an increase in temperature deduced from terrestrial records, while there is some evidence for climatic reversals (e.g. the Antarctic Cold Reversal) in high resolution marine sediment cores through this period. The high spatial density of Holocene terrestrial records reveals an overall expansion of sclerophyll woodland and rainforest taxa across the temperate region after ∼12 ka, presumably in response to increasing temperature, while hydrological records reveal spatially heterogeneous hydro-climatic trends. Patterns after ∼6 ka suggest higher frequency climatic variability that possibly reflects the onset of large scale climate variability caused by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

In-cylinder pressure and inter-cycle variability analysis for a compression ignition engine : Bayesian approaches

This thesis introduced Bayesian statistics as an analysis technique to isolate resonant frequency information in in-cylinder pressure signals taken from internal combustion engines. Applications of these techniques are relevant to engine design (performance and noise), energy conservation (fuel consumption) and alternative fuel evaluation. The use of Bayesian statistics, over traditional techniques, allowed for a more in-depth investigation into previously difficult to isolate engine parameters on a cycle-by-cycle basis. Specifically, these techniques facilitated the determination of the start of pre-mixed and diffusion combustion and for the in-cylinder temperature profile to be resolved on individual consecutive engine cycles. Dr Bodisco further showed the utility of the Bayesian analysis techniques by applying them to in-cylinder pressure signals taken from a compression ignition engine run with fumigated ethanol.

Climate variability over the last 35,000 years recorded in marine and terrestrial archives in the Australian region : an OZ-INTIMATE compilation

The Australian region spans some 60° of latitude and 50° of longitude and displays considerable regional climate variability both today and during the Late Quaternary. A synthesis of marine and terrestrial climate records, combining findings from the Southern Ocean, temperate, tropical and arid zones, identifies a complex response of climate proxies to a background of changing boundary conditions over the last 35,000 years. Climate drivers include the seasonal timing of insolation, greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, sea level rise and ocean and atmospheric circulation changes. Our compilation finds few climatic events that could be used to construct a climate event stratigraphy for the entire region, limiting the usefulness of this approach. Instead we have taken a spatial approach, looking to discern the patterns of change across the continent. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region.

The influence of fatty acid methyl ester profiles on inter-cycle variability in a heavy duty compression ignition engine

With the advent of alternative fuels, such as biodiesels and related blends, it is important to develop an understanding of their effects on inter-cycle variability which, in turn, influences engine performance as well as its emission. Using four methanol trans-esterified biomass fuels of differing carbon chain length and degree of unsaturation, this paper provides insight into the effect that alternative fuels have on inter-cycle variability. The experiments were conducted with a heavy-duty Cummins, turbo-charged, common-rail compression ignition engine. Combustion performance is reported in terms of the following key in-cylinder parameters: indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP), net heat release rate (NHRR), standard deviation of variability (StDev), coefficient of variation (CoV), peak pressure, peak pressure timing and maximum rate of pressure rise. A link is also established between the cyclic variability and oxygen ratio, which is a good indicator of stoichiometry. The results show that the fatty acid structures did not have a significant effect on injection timing, injection duration, injection pressure, StDev of IMEP, or the timing of peak motoring and combustion pressures. However, a significant effect was noted on the premixed and diffusion combustion proportions, combustion peak pressure and maximum rate of pressure rise. Additionally, the boost pressure, IMEP and combustion peak pressure were found to be directly correlated to the oxygen ratio. The emission of particles positively correlates with oxygen content in the fuel as well as in the air-fuel mixture resulting in a higher total number of particles per unit of mass.

A flexible Bayesian model for describing temporal variability of N2O emissions from an Australian pasture

Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.

Empirical evaluation of public transport travel time variability

Although transit travel time variability is essential for understanding the deterioration of reliability, optimising transit schedule and route choice; it has not attracted enough attention from the literature. This paper proposes public transport-oriented definitions of travel time variability and explores the distributions of public transport travel time using the Transit Signal Priority data. First, definitions of public transport travel time variability are established by extending the common definitions of variability in the literature and by using route and services data of public transport vehicles. Second, the paper explores the distribution of public transport travel time. A new approach for analysing the distributions involving all transit vehicles as well as vehicles from a specific route is proposed. The Lognormal distribution is revealed as the descriptors for public transport travel time from the same route and service. The methods described in this study could be of interest for both traffic managers and transit operators for planning and managing the transit systems.

Individual variability in compensatory eating following acute exercise in overweight and obese women

Background While compensatory eating following acute aerobic exercise is highly variable, little is known about the underling mechanisms that contribute to alterations in exercise-induced eating behaviour. Methods Overweight and obese women (BMI = 29.6 ± 4.0kg.m2) performed a bout of cycling individually tailored to expend 400kcal (EX), or a time-matched no exercise control condition in a randomised, counter-balanced order. Sixty minutes after the cessation of exercise, an ad libitum test meal was provided. Substrate oxidation and subjective appetite ratings were measured during exercise/time-matched rest, and during the period between the cessation of exercise and food consumption. Results While ad libitum EI did not differ between EX and the control condition (666.0 ± 203.9kcal vs. 664.6 ± 174.4kcal, respectively; ns), there was marked individual variability in compensatory energy intake (EI). The difference in EI between EX and the control condition ranged from -234.3 to +278.5kcal. Carbohydrate oxidation during exercise was positively associated with post-exercise EI, accounting for 37% of the variance in EI (r = 0.57; p = 0.02). Conclusions These data indicate that capacity of acute exercise to create a short-term energy deficit in overweight and obese women is highly variable. Furthermore, exercise-induced CHO oxidation can explain part of the variability in acute exercise-induced compensatory eating. Post-exercise compensatory eating could serve as an adaptive response to facilitate the restoration of carbohydrate balance.

Impact of socio-ecological variability on the transmission of malaria in Yunnan Province, China

This thesis is a population-based epidemiological study to explore the spatial and temporal pattern of malaria, and to assess the relationship between socio-ecological factors and malaria in Yunnan, China. Geospatial and temporal approaches were applied; the high risk areas of the disease were identified; and socio-ecological drivers of malaria were assessed. These findings will provide important evidence for the control and prevention of malaria in China and other countries with a similar situation of endemic malaria.

Positive reappraisal improves heart rate variability during stressful work

Recent developments in wearable ECG technology have seen renewed interest in the use of Heart Rate Variability (HRV) feedback for stress management. Yet, little is know about the efficacy of such interventions. Positive reappraisal is an emotion regulation strategy that involves changing the way a situation is construed to decrease emotional impact. We sought to test the effectiveness of an intervention that used feedback on HRV data to prompt positive reappraisal during a stressful work task. Participants (N=122) completed two 20-minute trials of an inbox activity. In-between the first and the second trial participants were assigned to the waitlist control condition, a positive reappraisal via psycho-education condition, or a positive reappraisal via HRV feedback condition. Results revealed that using HRV data to frame a positive reappraisal message is more effective than using psycho-education (or no intervention)–especially for increasing positive mood and reducing arousal.

Establishing definitions and modeling public transport travel time variability

Public transport travel time variability (PTTV) is essential for understanding deteriorations in the reliability of travel time, optimizing transit schedules and route choices. This paper establishes key definitions of PTTV in which firstly include all buses, and secondly include only a single service from a bus route. The paper then analyses the day-to-day distribution of public transport travel time by using Transit Signal Priority data. A comprehensive approach using both parametric bootstrapping Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Bayesian Information Creation technique is developed, recommends Lognormal distribution as the best descriptor of bus travel time on urban corridors. The probability density function of Lognormal distribution is finally used for calculating probability indicators of PTTV. The findings of this study are useful for both traffic managers and statisticians for planning and researching the transit systems.

Impact of climate variability on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Yunnan Province, China

BACKGROUND Malaria remains a public health problem in the remote and poor area of Yunnan Province, China. Yunnan faces an increasing risk of imported malaria infections from Mekong river neighboring countries. This study aimed to identify the high risk area of malaria transmission in Yunnan Province, and to estimate the effects of climatic variability on the transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in the identified area. METHODS We identified spatial clusters of malaria cases using spatial cluster analysis at a county level in Yunnan Province, 2005-2010, and estimated the weekly effects of climatic factors on P. vivax and P. falciparum based on a dataset of daily malaria cases and climatic variables. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the impact of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall up to 10-week lags on both types of malaria parasite after adjusting for seasonal and long-term effects. RESULTS The primary cluster area was identified along the China-Myanmar border in western Yunnan. A 1°C increase in minimum temperature was associated with a lag 4 to 9 weeks relative risk (RR), with the highest effect at lag 7 weeks for P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.05) and 6 weeks for P. falciparum (RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04, 1.11); a 10-mm increment in rainfall was associated with RRs of lags 2-4 weeks and 9-10 weeks, with the highest effect at 3 weeks for both P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.04) and P. falciparum (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.06); and the RRs with a 10% rise in relative humidity were significant from lag 3 to 8 weeks with the highest RR of 1.24 (95% CI, 1.10, 1.41) for P. vivax at 5-week lag. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that the China-Myanmar border is a high risk area for malaria transmission. Climatic factors appeared to be among major determinants of malaria transmission in this area. The estimated lag effects for the association between temperature and malaria are consistent with the life cycles of both mosquito vector and malaria parasite. These findings will be useful for malaria surveillance-response systems in the Mekong river region.

The impact of temperature variability on years of life lost

The relationship between temperature and mortality is generally found to be bathtub shaped (rising at both extremes). However, there are limited data on the potential health effects of temperature variability and on temperature itself...

Local inter-session variability modelling for object classification

Object classification is plagued by the issue of session variation. Session variation describes any variation that makes one instance of an object look different to another, for instance due to pose or illumination variation. Recent work in the challenging task of face verification has shown that session variability modelling provides a mechanism to overcome some of these limitations. However, for computer vision purposes, it has only been applied in the limited setting of face verification. In this paper we propose a local region based intersession variability (ISV) modelling approach, and apply it to challenging real-world data. We propose a region based session variability modelling approach so that local session variations can be modelled, termed Local ISV. We then demonstrate the efficacy of this technique on a challenging real-world fish image database which includes images taken underwater, providing significant real-world session variations. This Local ISV approach provides a relative performance improvement of, on average, 23% on the challenging MOBIO, Multi-PIE and SCface face databases. It also provides a relative performance improvement of 35% on our challenging fish image dataset.

Variability of metal composition and concentrations in road dust in the urban environment

Urban road dust comprises of a range of potentially toxic metal elements and plays a critical role in degrading urban receiving water quality. Hence, assessing the metal composition and concentration in urban road dust is a high priority. This study investigated the variability of metal composition and concentrations in road dust in 4 different urban land uses in Gold Coast, Australia. Samples from 16 road sites were collected and tested for selected 12 metal species. The data set was analyzed using both univariate and multivariate techniques. Outcomes of the data analysis revealed that the metal concentrations in road dust differ considerably within and between different land uses. Iron, aluminum, magnesium and zinc are the most abundant in urban land uses. It was also noted that metal species such as titanium, nickel, copper and zinc have the highest concentrations in industrial land use. The study outcomes revealed that soil and traffic related sources as key sources of metals deposited on road surfaces.

Short term variability in urinary bisphenol A in Australian children

Used frequently in food contact materials, bisphenol A (BPA) has been studied extensively in recent years, and ubiquitous exposure in the general population has been demonstrated worldwide. Characterising within- and between-individual variability of BPA concentrations is important for characterising exposure in biomonitoring studies, and this has been investigated previously in adults, but not in children. The aim of this study was to characterise the short-term variability of BPA in spot urine samples in young children. Children aged ≥2-<4 years (n = 25) were recruited from an existing cohort in Queensland Australia, and donated four spot urine samples each over a two day period. Samples were analysed for total BPA using isotope dilution online solid phase extraction-liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, and concentrations ranged from 0.53–74.5 ng/ml, with geometric mean and standard deviation of 2.70 ng/ml and 2.94 ng/ml, respectively. Sex and time of sample collection were not significant predictors of BPA concentration. The between-individual variability was approximately equal to the within-individual variability (ICC = 0.51), and this ICC is somewhat higher than previously reported literature values. This may be the result of physiological or behavioural differences between children and adults or of the relatively short exposure window assessed. Using a bootstrapping methodology, a single sample resulted in correct tertile classification approximately 70% of the time. This study suggests that single spot samples obtained from young children provide a reliable characterization of absolute and relative exposure over the short time window studied, but this may not hold true over longer timeframes.