Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach

Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD s goal of restoring the ?good ecological status? of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute to balance competing water demands in the basin and to increase economic water productivity, but might not be sufficient to ensure the provision of environmental flows as required by the WFD. A thoroughly revision of the basin s water use concession system for irrigation seems to be needed in order to bring the GRBMP in line with the WFD objectives. Furthermore, the study illustrates that social, economic, institutional, and technological factors, in addition to bio-physical conditions, are important issues to be considered for designing and developing water management strategies. The research initiative presented in this paper demonstrates that hydro-economic models can explicitly integrate all these issues, constituting a valuable tool that could assist policy makers for implementing sustainable irrigation policies.

Recovery of Disruptions in Rapid Transit Networks

This paper studies the disruption management problem of rapid transit rail networks. Besides optimizing the timetable and the rolling stock schedules, we explicitly deal with the effects of the disruption on the passenger demand. We propose a two-step approach that combines an integrated optimization model (for the timetable and rolling stock) with a model for the passengers’ behavior. We report our computational tests on realistic problem instances of the Spanish rail operator RENFE. The proposed approach is able to find solutions with a very good balance between various managerial goals within a few minutes. Se estudia la gestión de las incidencias en redes de metro y cercanías. Se optimizan los horarios y la asignación del material rodante, teniendo en cuenta el comportamiento de los pasajeros. Se reallizan pruebas en varias líneas de la red de cercanías de Madrid, con resultados satisfactorios.

Bare-tape scaling laws for de-orbit missions in a space debris environment

El entorno espacial actual hay un gran numero de micro-meteoritos y basura espacial generada por el hombre, lo cual plantea un riesgo para la seguridad de las operaciones en el espacio. La situación se agrava continuamente a causa de las colisiones de basura espacial en órbita, y los nuevos lanzamientos de satélites. Una parte significativa de esta basura son satélites muertos, y fragmentos de satélites resultantes de explosiones y colisiones de objetos en órbita. La mitigación de este problema se ha convertido en un tema de preocupación prioritario para todas las instituciones que participan en operaciones espaciales. Entre las soluciones existentes, las amarras electrodinámicas (EDT) proporcionan un eficiente dispositivo para el rápido de-orbitado de los satélites en órbita terrestre baja (LEO), al final de su vida útil. El campo de investigación de las amarras electrodinámicas (EDT) ha sido muy fructífero desde los años 70. Gracias a estudios teóricos, y a misiones para la demostración del funcionamiento de las amarras en órbita, esta tecnología se ha desarrollado muy rápidamente en las últimas décadas. Durante este período de investigación, se han identificado y superado múltiples problemas técnicos de diversa índole. Gran parte del funcionamiento básico del sistema EDT depende de su capacidad de supervivencia ante los micro-meteoritos y la basura espacial. Una amarra puede ser cortada completamente por una partícula cuando ésta tiene un diámetro mínimo. En caso de corte debido al impacto de partículas, una amarra en sí misma, podría ser un riesgo para otros satélites en funcionamiento. Por desgracia, tras varias demostraciones en órbita, no se ha podido concluir que este problema sea importante para el funcionamiento del sistema. En esta tesis, se presenta un análisis teórico de la capacidad de supervivencia de las amarras en el espacio. Este estudio demuestra las ventajas de las amarras de sección rectangular (cinta), en cuanto a la probabilidad de supervivencia durante la misión, frente a las amarras convencionales (cables de sección circular). Debido a su particular geometría (longitud mucho mayor que la sección transversal), una amarra puede tener un riesgo relativamente alto de ser cortado por un único impacto con una partícula de pequeñas dimensiones. Un cálculo analítico de la tasa de impactos fatales para una amarra cilindrica y de tipo cinta de igual longitud y masa, considerando el flujo de partículas de basura espacial del modelo ORDEM2000 de la NASA, muestra mayor probabilidad de supervivencia para las cintas. Dicho análisis ha sido comparado con un cálculo numérico empleando los modelos de flujo el ORDEM2000 y el MASTER2005 de ESA. Además se muestra que, para igual tiempo en órbita, una cinta tiene una probabilidad de supervivencia un orden y medio de magnitud mayor que una amarra cilindrica con igual masa y longitud. Por otra parte, de-orbitar una cinta desde una cierta altitud, es mucho más rápido, debido a su mayor perímetro que le permite capturar más corriente. Este es un factor adicional que incrementa la probabilidad de supervivencia de la cinta, al estar menos tiempo expuesta a los posibles impactos de basura espacial. Por este motivo, se puede afirmar finalmente y en sentido práctico, que la capacidad de supervivencia de la cinta es bastante alta, en comparación con la de la amarra cilindrica. El segundo objetivo de este trabajo, consiste en la elaboración de un modelo analítico, mejorando la aproximación del flujo de ORDEM2000 y MASTER2009, que permite calcular con precisión, la tasa de impacto fatal al año para una cinta en un rango de altitudes e inclinaciones, en lugar de unas condiciones particulares. Se obtiene el numero de corte por un cierto tiempo en función de la geometría de la cinta y propiedades de la órbita. Para las mismas condiciones, el modelo analítico, se compara con los resultados obtenidos del análisis numérico. Este modelo escalable ha sido esencial para la optimización del diseño de la amarra para las misiones de de-orbitado de los satélites, variando la masa del satélite y la altitud inicial de la órbita. El modelo de supervivencia se ha utilizado para construir una función objetivo con el fin de optimizar el diseño de amarras. La función objectivo es el producto del cociente entre la masa de la amarra y la del satélite y el numero de corte por un cierto tiempo. Combinando el modelo de supervivencia con una ecuación dinámica de la amarra donde aparece la fuerza de Lorentz, se elimina el tiempo y se escribe la función objetivo como función de la geometría de la cinta y las propietades de la órbita. Este modelo de optimización, condujo al desarrollo de un software, que esta en proceso de registro por parte de la UPM. La etapa final de este estudio, consiste en la estimación del número de impactos fatales, en una cinta, utilizando por primera vez una ecuación de límite balístico experimental. Esta ecuación ha sido desarollada para cintas, y permite representar los efectos tanto de la velocidad de impacto como el ángulo de impacto. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que la cinta es altamente resistente a los impactos de basura espacial, y para una cinta con una sección transversal definida, el número de impactos críticos debidos a partículas no rastreables es significativamente menor. ABSTRACT The current space environment, consisting of man-made debris and tiny meteoroids, poses a risk to safe operations in space, and the situation is continuously deteriorating due to in-orbit debris collisions and to new satellite launches. Among these debris a significant portion is due to dead satellites and fragments of satellites resulted from explosions and in-orbit collisions. Mitigation of space debris has become an issue of first concern for all the institutions involved in space operations. Bare electrodynamic tethers (EDT) can provide an efficient mechanism for rapid de-orbiting of defunct satellites from low Earth orbit (LEO) at end of life. The research on EDT has been a fruitful field since the 70’s. Thanks to both theoretical studies and in orbit demonstration missions, this technology has been developed very fast in the following decades. During this period, several technical issues were identified and overcome. The core functionality of EDT system greatly depends on their survivability to the micrometeoroids and orbital debris, and a tether can become itself a kind of debris for other operating satellites in case of cutoff due to particle impact; however, this very issue is still inconclusive and conflicting after having a number of space demonstrations. A tether can be completely cut by debris having some minimal diameter. This thesis presents a theoretical analysis of the survivability of tethers in space. The study demonstrates the advantages of tape tethers over conventional round wires particularly on the survivability during the mission. Because of its particular geometry (length very much larger than cross-sectional dimensions), a tether may have a relatively high risk of being severed by the single impact of small debris. As a first approach to the problem, survival probability has been compared for a round and a tape tether of equal mass and length. The rates of fatal impact of orbital debris on round and tape tether, evaluated with an analytical approximation to debris flux modeled by NASA’s ORDEM2000, shows much higher survival probability for tapes. A comparative numerical analysis using debris flux model ORDEM2000 and ESA’s MASTER2005 shows good agreement with the analytical result. It also shows that, for a given time in orbit, a tape has a probability of survival of about one and a half orders of magnitude higher than a round tether of equal mass and length. Because de-orbiting from a given altitude is much faster for the tape due to its larger perimeter, its probability of survival in a practical sense is quite high. As the next step, an analytical model derived in this work allows to calculate accurately the fatal impact rate per year for a tape tether. The model uses power laws for debris-size ranges, in both ORDEM2000 and MASTER2009 debris flux models, to calculate tape tether survivability at different LEO altitudes. The analytical model, which depends on tape dimensions (width, thickness) and orbital parameters (inclinations, altitudes) is then compared with fully numerical results for different orbit inclinations, altitudes and tape width for both ORDEM2000 and MASTER2009 flux data. This scalable model not only estimates the fatal impact count but has proved essential in optimizing tether design for satellite de-orbit missions varying satellite mass and initial orbital altitude and inclination. Within the frame of this dissertation, a simple analysis has been finally presented, showing the scalable property of tape tether, thanks to the survivability model developed, that allows analyze and compare de-orbit performance for a large range of satellite mass and orbit properties. The work explicitly shows the product of tether-to-satellite mass-ratio and fatal impact count as a function of tether geometry and orbital parameters. Combining the tether dynamic equation involving Lorentz drag with space debris impact survivability model, eliminates time from the expression. Hence the product, is independent of tether de-orbit history and just depends on mission constraints and tether length, width and thickness. This optimization model finally led to the development of a friendly software tool named BETsMA, currently in process of registration by UPM. For the final step, an estimation of fatal impact rate on a tape tether has been done, using for the first time an experimental ballistic limit equation that was derived for tapes and accounts for the effects of both the impact velocity and impact angle. It is shown that tape tethers are highly resistant to space debris impacts and considering a tape tether with a defined cross section, the number of critical events due to impact with non-trackable debris is always significantly low.

Building resilience to water scarcity in Southern Spain: A case study of rice farming in Doñana protected wetlands

Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Don?ana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods?analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights?that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and evenmore so under an increased water scarcity scenario.

Characterisation of the operation & maintenance phase in PV rural electrification programmes

Con 1.300 millones de personas en el mundo sin acceso a la electricidad (la mayoría en entornos rurales de países empobrecidos), la energía solar fotovoltaica constituye una solución viable técnica y económicamente para electrificar las zonas más remotas del planeta donde las redes eléctricas convencionales no llegan. Casi todos los países en el mundo han desarrollado algún tipo de programa de electrificación fotovoltaica rural durante los últimos 40 años, principalmente los países más pobres, donde a través de diferentes modelos de financiación, se han instalado millones de sistemas solares domiciliarios (pequeños sistemas fotovoltaicos para uso doméstico). Durante este largo período, se han ido superando muchas barreras, como la mejora de la calidad de los sistemas fotovoltaicos, la reducción de costes, la optimización del diseño y del dimensionado de los sistemas, la disponibilidad financiera para implantar programas de electrificación rural, etc. Gracias a esto, la electrificación rural descentralizada ha experimentado recientemente un salto de escala caracterizada por la implantación de grandes programas con miles de sistemas solares domiciliarios e integrando largos períodos de mantenimiento. Muchos de estos grandes programas se están llevando a cabo con limitado éxito, ya que generalmente parten de supuestos e hipótesis poco contrastadas con la realidad, comprometiendo así un retorno económico que permita el desarrollo de esta actividad a largo plazo. En este escenario surge un nuevo reto: el de cómo garantizar la sostenibilidad de los grandes programas de electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Se argumenta que la principal causa de esta falta de rentabilidad es el imprevisto alto coste de la fase de operación y mantenimiento. Cuestiones clave tales como la estructura de costes de operación y mantenimiento o la fiabilidad de los componentes del sistema fotovoltaico no están bien caracterizados hoy en día. Esta situación limita la capacidad de diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento capaces de asegurar la sostenibilidad y la rentabilidad del servicio de operación y mantenimiento en estos programas. Esta tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo responder a estas cuestiones. Se ha realizado varios estudios sobre la base de un gran programa de electrificación rural fotovoltaica real llevado a cabo en Marruecos con más de 13.000 sistemas solares domiciliarios instalados. Sobre la base de este programa se ha hecho una evaluación en profundidad de la fiabilidad de los sistemas solares a partir de los datos de mantenimiento recogidos durante 5 años con más de 80.000 inputs. Los resultados han permitido establecer las funciones de fiabilidad de los equipos tal y como se comportan en condiciones reales de operación, las tasas de fallos y los tiempos medios hasta el fallo para los principales componentes del sistema, siendo este el primer caso de divulgación de resultados de este tipo en el campo de la electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Los dos principales componentes del sistema solar domiciliario, la batería y el módulo fotovoltaico, han sido analizados en campo a través de una muestra de 41 sistemas trabajando en condiciones reales pertenecientes al programa solar marroquí. Por un lado se ha estudiado la degradación de la capacidad de las baterías y por otro la degradación de potencia de los módulos fotovoltaicos. En el caso de las baterías, los resultados nos han permitido caracterizar la curva de degradación en capacidad llegando a obtener una propuesta de nueva definición del umbral de vida útil de las baterías en electrificación rural. También sobre la base del programa solar de Marruecos se ha llevado a cabo un estudio de caracterización de los costes reales de operación y mantenimiento a partir de la base de datos de contabilidad del programa registrados durante 5 años. Los resultados del estudio han permitido definir cuáles son costes que más incidencia tienen en el coste global. Se han obtenido los costes unitarios por sistema instalado y se han calculado los montantes de las cuotas de mantenimiento de los usuarios para garantizar la rentabilidad de la operación y mantenimiento. Finalmente, se propone un modelo de optimización matemática para diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento basado en los resultados de los estudios anteriores. La herramienta, elaborada mediante programación lineal entera mixta, se ha aplicado al programa marroquí con el fin de validar el modelo propuesto. ABSTRACT With 1,300 million people worldwide deprived of access to electricity (mostly in rural environments), photovoltaic solar energy has proven to be a cost‐effective solution and the only hope for electrifying the most remote inhabitants of the planet, where conventional electric grids do not reach because they are unaffordable. Almost all countries in the world have had some kind of rural photovoltaic electrification programme during the past 40 years, mainly the poorer countries, where through different organizational models, millions of solar home systems (small photovoltaic systems for domestic use) have been installed. During this long period, many barriers have been overcome, such as quality enhancement, cost reduction, the optimization of designing and sizing, financial availability, etc. Thanks to this, decentralized rural electrification has recently experienced a change of scale characterized by new programmes with thousands of solar home systems and long maintenance periods. Many of these large programmes are being developed with limited success, as they have generally been based on assumptions that do not correspond to reality, compromising the economic return that allows long term activity. In this scenario a new challenge emerges, which approaches the sustainability of large programmes. It is argued that the main cause of unprofitability is the unexpected high cost of the operation and maintenance of the solar systems. In fact, the lack of a paradigm in decentralized rural services has led to many private companies to carry out decentralized electrification programmes blindly. Issues such as the operation and maintenance cost structure or the reliability of the solar home system components have still not been characterized. This situation does not allow optimized maintenance structure to be designed to assure the sustainability and profitability of the operation and maintenance service. This PhD thesis aims to respond to these needs. Several studies have been carried out based on a real and large photovoltaic rural electrification programme carried out in Morocco with more than 13,000 solar home systems. An in‐depth reliability assessment has been made from a 5‐year maintenance database with more than 80,000 maintenance inputs. The results have allowed us to establish the real reliability functions, the failure rate and the main time to failure of the main components of the system, reporting these findings for the first time in the field of rural electrification. Both in‐field experiments on the capacity degradation of batteries and power degradation of photovoltaic modules have been carried out. During the experiments both samples of batteries and modules were operating under real conditions integrated into the solar home systems of the Moroccan programme. In the case of the batteries, the results have enabled us to obtain a proposal of definition of death of batteries in rural electrification. A cost assessment of the Moroccan experience based on a 5‐year accounting database has been carried out to characterize the cost structure of the programme. The results have allowed the major costs of the photovoltaic electrification to be defined. The overall cost ratio per installed system has been calculated together with the necessary fees that users would have to pay to make the operation and maintenance affordable. Finally, a mathematical optimization model has been proposed to design maintenance structures based on the previous study results. The tool has been applied to the Moroccan programme with the aim of validating the model.

Modelo de gestión de un embalse en tiempo real durante avenidas basado en redes bayesianas entrenadas con el método de optimización PLEM

En la actualidad, la gestión de embalses para el control de avenidas se realiza, comúnmente, utilizando modelos de simulación. Esto se debe, principalmente, a su facilidad de uso en tiempo real por parte del operador de la presa. Se han desarrollado modelos de optimización de la gestión del embalse que, aunque mejoran los resultados de los modelos de simulación, su aplicación en tiempo real se hace muy difícil o simplemente inviable, pues está limitada al conocimiento de la avenida futura que entra al embalse antes de tomar la decisión de vertido. Por esta razón, se ha planteado el objetivo de desarrollar un modelo de gestión de embalses en avenidas que incorpore las ventajas de un modelo de optimización y que sea de fácil uso en tiempo real por parte del gestor de la presa. Para ello, se construyó un modelo de red Bayesiana que representa los procesos de la cuenca vertiente y del embalse y, que aprende de casos generados sintéticamente mediante un modelo hidrológico agregado y un modelo de optimización de la gestión del embalse. En una primera etapa, se generó un gran número de episodios sintéticos de avenida utilizando el método de Monte Carlo, para obtener las lluvias, y un modelo agregado compuesto de transformación lluvia- escorrentía, para obtener los hidrogramas de avenida. Posteriormente, se utilizaron las series obtenidas como señales de entrada al modelo de gestión de embalses PLEM, que optimiza una función objetivo de costes mediante programación lineal entera mixta, generando igual número de eventos óptimos de caudal vertido y de evolución de niveles en el embalse. Los episodios simulados fueron usados para entrenar y evaluar dos modelos de red Bayesiana, uno que pronostica el caudal de entrada al embalse, y otro que predice el caudal vertido, ambos en un horizonte de tiempo que va desde una a cinco horas, en intervalos de una hora. En el caso de la red Bayesiana hidrológica, el caudal de entrada que se elige es el promedio de la distribución de probabilidad de pronóstico. En el caso de la red Bayesiana hidráulica, debido al comportamiento marcadamente no lineal de este proceso y a que la red Bayesiana devuelve un rango de posibles valores de caudal vertido, se ha desarrollado una metodología para seleccionar un único valor, que facilite el trabajo del operador de la presa. Esta metodología consiste en probar diversas estrategias propuestas, que incluyen zonificaciones y alternativas de selección de un único valor de caudal vertido en cada zonificación, a un conjunto suficiente de episodios sintéticos. Los resultados de cada estrategia se compararon con el método MEV, seleccionándose las estrategias que mejoran los resultados del MEV, en cuanto al caudal máximo vertido y el nivel máximo alcanzado por el embalse, cualquiera de las cuales puede usarse por el operador de la presa en tiempo real para el embalse de estudio (Talave). La metodología propuesta podría aplicarse a cualquier embalse aislado y, de esta manera, obtener, para ese embalse particular, diversas estrategias que mejoran los resultados del MEV. Finalmente, a modo de ejemplo, se ha aplicado la metodología a una avenida sintética, obteniendo el caudal vertido y el nivel del embalse en cada intervalo de tiempo, y se ha aplicado el modelo MIGEL para obtener en cada instante la configuración de apertura de los órganos de desagüe que evacuarán el caudal. Currently, the dam operator for the management of dams uses simulation models during flood events, mainly due to its ease of use in real time. Some models have been developed to optimize the management of the reservoir to improve the results of simulation models. However, real-time application becomes very difficult or simply unworkable, because the decision to discharge depends on the unknown future avenue entering the reservoir. For this reason, the main goal is to develop a model of reservoir management at avenues that incorporates the advantages of an optimization model. At the same time, it should be easy to use in real-time by the dam manager. For this purpose, a Bayesian network model has been developed to represent the processes of the watershed and reservoir. This model learns from cases generated synthetically by a hydrological model and an optimization model for managing the reservoir. In a first stage, a large number of synthetic flood events was generated using the Monte Carlo method, for rain, and rain-added processing model composed of runoff for the flood hydrographs. Subsequently, the series obtained were used as input signals to the reservoir management model PLEM that optimizes a target cost function using mixed integer linear programming. As a result, many optimal discharge rate events and water levels in the reservoir levels were generated. The simulated events were used to train and test two models of Bayesian network. The first one predicts the flow into the reservoir, and the second predicts the discharge flow. They work in a time horizon ranging from one to five hours, in intervals of an hour. In the case of hydrological Bayesian network, the chosen inflow is the average of the probability distribution forecast. In the case of hydraulic Bayesian network the highly non-linear behavior of this process results on a range of possible values of discharge flow. A methodology to select a single value has been developed to facilitate the dam operator work. This methodology tests various strategies proposed. They include zoning and alternative selection of a single value in each discharge rate zoning from a sufficient set of synthetic episodes. The results of each strategy are compared with the MEV method. The strategies that improve the outcomes of MEV are selected and can be used by the dam operator in real time applied to the reservoir study case (Talave). The methodology could be applied to any single reservoir and, thus, obtain, for the particular reservoir, various strategies that improve results from MEV. Finally, the methodology has been applied to a synthetic flood, obtaining the discharge flow and the reservoir level in each time interval. The open configuration floodgates to evacuate the flow at each interval have been obtained applying the MIGEL model.

Herramientas de gestión de compromiso para trabajadores del conocimiento

El objetivo de la línea de investigación seguida en esta tesis consiste en identificar palancas de gestión de las personas en las organizaciones que permitan mejorar su rendimiento mediante la gestión del compromiso de los profesionales de las organizaciones inmersas en la denominada sociedad del conocimiento. Para identificar dichas palancas se analizan algunos de los factores que, según la literatura científica, tienen como consecuencia cambios en la productividad, como son el compromiso organizacional y las conductas cívicas dentro de la organización. También, por su actualidad y relevancia en las prácticas de gestión de recursos humanos, se han analizado el impacto que tienen en estos factores en las prácticas empresariales que permiten conciliar vida profesional y personal el efecto del género en las distintas variables analizadas. Por todo lo anterior, en la investigación se analizan algunos de los factores de carácter psicosocial que promueven el compromiso en una organización, y se profundiza en dos conceptos: el análisis del compromiso de los profesionales con la organización para la que trabajan, y los comportamientos de ciudadanía organizativa que se exhiben en la organización por sus miembros. Para ello, se realiza un encuadramiento teórico de los siguientes conceptos: el compromiso como eje del trabajo; la ciudadanía organizativa como modelo cultural de la organización que promueve el compromiso; el rol de los líderes; los efectos de las políticas de conciliación; las diferencias de percepciones derivadas del género y un sistema de revisión de retributiva eficiente y coherente con el marco conceptual planteado. La metodología seleccionada para este trabajo ha sido el análisis en profundidad del caso de una empresa española, Red Eléctrica de España a través de tres pilares básicos: el primero consiste en el análisis exhaustivo de los datos obtenidos en las dos encuestas de clima social que dicha empresa realizó en el período 2006-2009; el segundo se centra en el desarrollo de un modelo matemático para el cálculo eficiente de recompensas salariales a través de un modelo de optimización; y el tercero es la consecuencia del conocimiento profundo que el autor tiene de la propia empresa, su cultura y funcionamiento, fruto de su experiencia profesional como directivo en el área de desarrollo de recursos humanos, función que desempeñó en la organización durante nueve años. En el análisis de este caso se ha investigado la influencia del género en el compromiso y la ciudadanía organizativa de los empleados de dicha organización, para identificar las diferencias de percepción que puedan ser explicadas por el género en una empresa muy masculina como es aquella. También, se ha incluido en este estudio de caso el análisis del efecto que presentan las medidas de conciliación en el compromiso de los empleados, por la relevancia que tiene este asunto en el panorama laboral español actual. Este análisis permite conocer hasta qué punto son o no motivadoras estas medidas en la organización analizada y, como consecuencia de ello, el tipo de gestión más oportuna de las mismas para conseguir no sólo los fines sociales que pretenden, garantizar que los empleados puedan compatibilizar sus exigencias laborales con una vida personal adecuada, sino también mejorar el clima, productividad y compromiso de éstos con la empresa. Para completar este análisis del caso, se han identificado de forma analítica los factores que mejor explican el clima de la organización y se ha concluido el papel central de la dirección que se concreta en la actuación de cada jefe, como motor del clima social en el equipo que dirige. Dado que la tesis pivota sobre el papel relevante que tiene la generación de una cultura de ciudadanía organizativa, se ha complementado el análisis con el desarrollo una herramienta de cálculo que facilita la determinación de los incrementos de la retribución fija de acuerdo con los principios de transparencia, equidad y justicia acordes con el modelo de empresa que promueve la virtud cívica de las personas empleadas en ella. Para ello se ha desarrollado un nuevo método de cálculo del incremento de retribución fija mediante un modelo analítico innovador y compacto de programación lineal entera mixta. Este modelo permite a las organizaciones realizar diseños de política retributiva de forma sencilla y rápida, a la vez que facilita la transparencia de las mismas en el proceso de gestión de la compensación. No se ha abordado el asunto de la determinación de la retribución variable, por ser un asunto relativamente menos complejo y profusamente tratado en la práctica directiva de las empresas. La primera de las conclusiones de la investigación realizada se refiere a los aspectos de la cultura organizativa que pueden identificarse como motores del compromiso. Se concluye que en el caso de estudio hay una fuerte relación mutua entre los rasgos que definen el compromiso emocional y los rasgos que determinan un comportamiento caracterizado como de ciudadanía organizativa. Se ha encontrado una correlación significativa y alta entre indicadores de compromiso y factores que recogen comportamientos de ciudadanía organizativa, correlación muy notable tanto para los factores de compromiso racional como para los de compromiso emocional. También se ha evidenciado que la correlación entre compromiso emocional y rasgos de comportamientos de ciudadanía organizacional es mayor que la que aparece entre compromiso racional y rasgos de comportamientos de ciudadanía organizacional. Desde el punto de vista de la práctica de gestión de recursos humanos, estas relaciones indican la conveniencia de promover una cultura organizacional basada en los principios de la ciudadanía organizativa para alcanzar altos niveles de compromiso emocional de los profesionales y mejorar la eficiencia organizativa. La segunda de las conclusiones se refiere al efecto de las políticas de conciliación en las organizaciones. Sobre este asunto se concluye que en el caso de estudio no puede considerarse que las medidas de conciliación tengan una fuerte relación con el compromiso emocional, y menos que puedan considerarse directamente una herramienta de generación de compromiso emocional. Sin embargo, sí que se detecta una cierta relación entre las percepciones de conciliación y de compromiso con la organización, y sobre todo, con el compromiso racional con la organización, que puede tener que ver con que para los empleados de la organización analizada, las medidas de conciliación son consideradas como una parte más de las condiciones laborales que ofrece la organización a los trabajadores. La tercera conclusión se refiere a la relación entre el género de los trabajadores y su nivel de compromiso y de ciudadanía organizativa. En el caso de estudio no se identifica una relación entre el género y el nivel de compromiso de los profesionales ni tampoco con la percepción de ciudadanía organizativa, variando la situación del período 2006 al período 2009. La cuarta conclusión se refiere al impacto que la actuación de los líderes (jefes) tiene en el clima social. En el caso de estudio, la actuación de los directivos y el nivel de compromiso que genera en los profesionales explica por sí sola más de un tercio de la varianza del clima organizativo, entendido como tal el que refleja el conjunto global de preguntas que constituyen la encuesta de clima del caso de estudio. Del análisis realizado se concluye que en el caso de estudio la percepción que los empleados tienen de sus jefes tiene un efecto relevante sobre el resto de percepciones de compromiso, ciudadanía organizativa y otros factores que conforman el clima social de la organización. La quinta y última conclusión supone la aportación de un modelo novedoso de cálculo de la recompensa económica coherente con un modelo de gestión empresarial mediante una cultura de ciudadanía organizativa. La solución que obtiene este modelo es el incremento salarial individual de cada profesional, que tiene en cuenta su rendimiento, posicionamiento salarial y encuadramiento profesional. Además de las restricciones presupuestarias, se consideran los principios de transparencia, equidad y justicia coherentes con el modelo conceptual planteado. La principal contribución de este trabajo es la formulación matemática de los criterios cualitativos que se emplean habitualmente en el proceso de revisión salarial. El método planteado supone una innovación que permite automatizar la metodología tradicional de gestión de incrementos salariales basados en matrices de incremento, así como evitar la aplicación de limitaciones en las valoraciones de desempeño derivadas de las restricciones presupuestarias que toda organización tiene. De esta manera se puede disponer de un mecanismo de revisión salarial que tiene en cuenta el desempeño de los profesionales, pero que permite la gestión “desacoplada” de la evaluación de rendimiento y la actualización de la retribución fija. ABSTRACT The aim of the research pursued in this thesis is to identify some human resources management levers in organizations to improve their performance through individual’s commitment management, focusing in organizations immersed in the so-called knowledge society. In order to find out these levers, the author analysed some of the psychosocial factors that promote engagement to the organizations and, according to the scientific literature, have effects in their productivity. These factors analysed are organisational commitment and citizenship behaviours. Additionally, the investigation also focuses on work-life balance policies and gender considerations, because of their relevance and topicality for the human resources’ policies. In the light of this, the investigation focuses on some of the psychosocial factors that promote organisational commitment, and delves into two concepts: the analysis of the commitment of professionals to the organization for which they work, and the organizational citizenship behaviours exhibited in the organization by its members. For this, a theoretical framework is performed for the following items: the professional’s commitment which is the pillar of this work; the organisational citizenship as a cultural model to promote that commitment; the role of the leaders; the effects of the work-life balance policies; the different perceptions of the professionals because of their gender; and an efficient salary review system, which is coherent with the conceptual framework set. The methodology selected for this work was the analysis in depth of the case of a Spanish company, Red Eléctrica de España, through three basic subjects: the first consists of a thorough analysis of the data obtained in the two work climate surveys made by this company in 2006 and 2009; the second focuses on the development of a mathematical model for calculating efficient salary reviews through an optimization model; and the third is the result of the author’s deep understanding of the company, its culture and its performance because of his professional experience as a manager in the area of human resource development, which was his role in the organization for nine years. The author investigated in the analysis of this case about the influence of gender on the employees’ organizational commitment and citizenship behaviours, in order to find out perception differences that can be explained by the highly masculine organisational culture such Red Eléctrica de España had during the studied period. Additionally, because of the importance of the work-life balance promotion in the Spanish labour scene, the case study analysis includes their effect in the employees’ commitment. This analysis allows to know motivating are these measures in the studied organization and, as a result, the most appropriate type of management thereof for social purposes, not only intended to ensure that employees can balance their work and personal demands, but also improving the work climate, the productivity and the organisational commitment. The investigation identifies the factors which best explain the work climate of the organization and concludes the central role of the leadership, embodied in the performance of every manager, to boost the work climate in their teams. Since this thesis pivots on the important role the generation of a culture of organizational citizenship has, the investigation has been complemented with the development of a analytic tool that facilitates the calculation of the salary review increments according to the principles of transparency, equity and justice in line with a work culture that promotes organisational citizenship behaviours. For this, this works develops a new method for calculating fixed salary increases through an innovative and compact mixed integer linear programming model. This model enables organizations to design compensation policies easily and quickly, and facilitates the transparency of the compensation management system. The method for determining variable remuneration has not been addressed because it is relatively less complex issue and widely discussed. The first conclusion of the conducted investigation concerns aspects of organizational culture that could be identified as commitment drivers. In the case study exists a strong and mutual relationship between the characteristics defining the emotional commitment and the organisational citizenship behaviours. The investigation has found out a meaningful and high correlation between indicators of commitment and the factors collecting organizational citizenship behaviour. This correlation with organisational citizenship is remarkable for both, rational and emotional, commitment. The correlation between organizational citizenship behaviours and emotional commitment and is greater than the one with rational commitment. From the practitioner point of view, these relationships show the importance of promoting an organizational culture based on the principles of organizational citizenship to achieve high levels of emotional engagement of professionals and improve organizational efficiency. The second conclusion relates to the effect of work-life balance policies in organizations. On this matter, the investigation concludes that for the case study, work-life balance measures do not have a strong relationship with the emotional commitment, and unless they can be usually considered as a tool to improve employees’ emotional commitment. However, a certain relationship between perceptions of work-life facilities and organisational commitment exists, especially with the rational commitment to the organization. This relationship appears because for employees of the analysed organization, work-life balance measures could be considered as a part of working conditions offered to them by the organization. The third conclusion concerns the relationship between the gender of workers and their level of commitment and organizational citizenship. In this case study, there is not any relationship between gender and the professional’s commitment level nor the perception of organizational citizenship; and the situation varies during the period studied. The fourth conclusion refers to the impact that the actions of the leaders have on the work climate. In the case study, the performance of management and the level of commitment generated, explains more than a third of the variance of work climate - understood as such reflecting the overall set of questions that constitute the work climate survey -. The analysis concludes that in the case study perception that employees have of their leaders has a significant effect on the rest of perceptions of commitment, organizational citizenship and other factors making the work climate of the organization. The fifth and last conclusion represents the contribution of a new model for calculating the salary increment, coherent with a corporate citizenship management culture. The solution obtained from this model consists of salary increases for each employee; these increases consider the employee’s professional performance, salary level relative to peers within the organization, and professional group. In addition to budget constraints, we modelled other elements typical of compensation systems, such as equity and justice. The major contribution of this work is the mathematical formulation of the criteria that are typically the basis for salary management. The compact formulation and the ease of obtaining the optimal solution facilitate its use in large companies that maintain very high levels of homogeneity across employees. Designing different strategies for specific groups within a company is also possible. A major benefit of this method is that it allows a company to independently manage its salary and assessment policies. Because obtaining salary-revision matrices without using the mathematical model we present in this paper is typically done iteratively by tuning previously defined matrices, managers commonly tune values for assessing employee performance to ensure that salary increases and performance assessments are consistent; however, this distorts the evaluation process and decreases employee motivation. In this MILP model, employee performance is only one parameter of several input parameters used in designing a salary policy that is independent of the results of performance-assessment values.

Sistemas de gestión de puentes : optimización de estrategias de mantenimiento : implementación en redes locales de carreteras

En la actualidad, y en consonancia con la tendencia de “sostenibilidad” extendida a todos los campos y parcelas de la ciencia, nos encontramos con un área de estudio basado en la problemática del inevitable deterioro de las estructuras existentes, y la gestión de las acciones a realizar para mantener las condiciones de servicio de los puentes y prolongar su vida útil. Tal y como se comienza a ver en las inversiones en los países avanzados, con una larga tradición en el desarrollo de sus infraestructuras, se muestra claramente el nuevo marco al que nos dirigimos. Las nuevas tendencias van encaminadas cada vez más a la conservación y mantenimiento, reduciéndose las partidas presupuestarias destinadas a nuevas actuaciones, debido a la completa vertebración territorial que se ha ido instaurando en estos países, entre los que España se encuentra. Este nutrido patrimonio de infraestructuras viarias, que cuentan a su vez con un importante número de estructuras, hacen necesarias las labores de gestión y mantenimiento de los puentes integrantes en las mismas. Bajo estas premisas, la tesis aborda el estado de desarrollo de la implementación de los sistemas de gestión de puentes, las tendencias actuales e identificación de campos por desarrollar, así como la aplicación específica a redes de carreteras de escasos recursos, más allá de la Red Estatal. Además de analizar las diversas metodologías de formación de inventarios, realización de inspecciones y evaluación del estado de puentes, se ha enfocado, como principal objetivo, el desarrollo de un sistema específico de predicción del deterioro y ayuda a la toma de decisiones. Este sistema, adicionalmente a la configuración tradicional de criterios de formación de bases de datos de estructuras e inspecciones, plantea, de forma justificada, la clasificación relativa al conjunto de la red gestionada, según su estado de condición. Eso permite, mediante técnicas de optimización, la correcta toma de decisiones a los técnicos encargados de la gestión de la red. Dentro de los diversos métodos de evaluación de la predicción de evolución del deterioro de cada puente, se plantea la utilización de un método bilineal simplificado envolvente del ajuste empírico realizado y de los modelos markovianos como la solución más efectiva para abordar el análisis de la predicción de la propagación del daño. Todo ello explotando la campaña experimenta realizada que, a partir de una serie de “fotografías técnicas” del estado de la red de puentes gestionados obtenidas mediante las inspecciones realizadas, es capaz de mejorar el proceso habitual de toma de decisiones. Toda la base teórica reflejada en el documento, se ve complementada mediante la implementación de un Sistema de Gestión de Puentes (SGP) específico, adaptado según las necesidades y limitaciones de la administración a la que se ha aplicado, en concreto, la Dirección General de Carreteras de la Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha, para una muestra representativa del conjunto de puentes de la red de la provincia de Albacete, partiendo de una situación en la que no existe, actualmente, un sistema formal de gestión de puentes. Tras un meditado análisis del estado del arte dentro de los Capítulos 2 y 3, se plantea un modelo de predicción del deterioro dentro del Capítulo 4 “Modelo de Predicción del Deterioro”. De la misma manera, para la resolución del problema de optimización, se justifica la utilización de un novedoso sistema de optimización secuencial elegido dentro del Capítulo 5, los “Algoritmos Evolutivos”, en sus diferentes variantes, como la herramienta matemática más correcta para distribuir adecuadamente los recursos económicos dedicados a mantenimiento y conservación de los que esta administración pueda disponer en sus partidas de presupuesto a medio plazo. En el Capítulo 6, y en diversos Anexos al presente documento, se muestran los datos y resultados obtenidos de la aplicación específica desarrollada para la red local analizada, utilizando el modelo de deterioro y optimización secuencial, que garantiza la correcta asignación de los escasos recursos de los que disponen las redes autonómicas en España. Se plantea con especial interés la implantación de estos sistemas en la red secundaria española, debido a que reciben en los últimos tiempos una mayor responsabilidad de gestión, con recursos cada vez más limitados. Finalmente, en el Capítulo 7, se plantean una serie de conclusiones que nos hacen reflexionar de la necesidad de comenzar a pasar, en materia de gestión de infraestructuras, de los estudios teóricos y los congresos, hacia la aplicación y la práctica, con un planteamiento que nos debe llevar a cambios importantes en la forma de concebir la labor del ingeniero y las enseñanzas que se imparten en las escuelas. También se enumeran las aportaciones originales que plantea el documento frente al actual estado del arte. Se plantean, de la misma manera, las líneas de investigación en materia de Sistemas de Gestión de Puentes que pueden ayudar a refinar y mejorar los actuales sistemas utilizados. In line with the development of "sustainability" extended to all fields of science, we are faced with the inevitable and ongoing deterioration of existing structures, leading nowadays to the necessary management of maintaining the service conditions and life time extension of bridges. As per the increased amounts of money that can be observed being spent in the countries with an extensive and strong tradition in the development of their infrastructure, the trend can be clearly recognized. The new tendencies turn more and more towards conservation and maintenance, reducing programmed expenses for new construction activities, in line with the already wellestablished territorial structures, as is the case for Spain. This significant heritage of established road infrastructure, consequently containing a vast number of structures, imminently lead to necessary management and maintenance of the including bridges. Under these conditions, this thesis focusses on the status of the development of the management implementation for bridges, current trends, and identifying areas for further development. This also includes the specific application to road networks with limited resources, beyond the national highways. In addition to analyzing the various training methodologies, inventory inspections and condition assessments of bridges, the main objective has been the development of a specific methodology. This methodology, in addition to the traditional system of structure and inspection database training criteria, sustains the classification for the entire road network, according to their condition. This allows, through optimization techniques, for the correct decision making by the technical managers of the network. Among the various methods for assessing the evolution forecast of deterioration of each bridge, a simplified bilinear envelope adjustment made empirical method and Markov models as the most effective solution to address the analysis of predicting the spread of damage, arising from a "technical snapshot" obtained through inspections of the condition of the bridges included in the investigated network. All theoretical basis reflected in the document, is completed by implementing a specific Bridges Management System (BMS), adapted according to the needs and limitations of the authorities for which it has been applied, being in this case particularly the General Highways Directorate of the autonomous region of Castilla-La Mancha, for a representative sample of all bridges in the network in the province of Albacete, starting from a situation where there is currently no formal bridge management system. After an analysis of the state of the art in Chapters 2 and 3, a new deterioration prediction model is developed in Chapter 4, "Deterioration Prediction Model". In the same way, to solve the optimization problem is proposed the use of a singular system of sequential optimization elected under Chapter 5, the "Evolutionary Algorithms", the most suitable mathematical tool to adequately distribute the economic resources for maintenance and conservation for mid-term budget planning. In Chapter 6, and in the various appendices, data and results are presented of the developed application for the analyzed local network, from the optimization model, which guarantees the correct allocation of scarce resources at the disposal of authorities responsible for the regional networks in Spain. The implementation of these systems is witnessed with particular interest for the Spanish secondary network, because of the increasing management responsibility, with decreasing resources. Chapter 7 presents a series of conclusions that triggers to reconsider shifting from theoretical studies and conferences towards a practical implementation, considering how to properly conceive the engineering input and the related education. The original contributions of the document are also listed. In the same way, the research on the Bridges Management System can help evaluating and improving the used systematics.

Otimização não linear aplicada à operação de sistemas com múltiplos reservatórios para abastecimento de água.

O presente estudo considera a aplicação do modelo SISAGUA de simulação matemática e de otimização para a operação de sistemas de reservatórios integrados em sistemas complexos para o abastecimento de água. O SISAGUA utiliza a programação não linear inteira mista (PNLIM) com os objetivos de evitar ou minimizar racionamentos, equilibrar a distribuição dos armazenamentos em sistemas com múltiplos reservatórios e minimizar os custos de operação. A metodologia de otimização foi aplicada para o sistema produtor de água da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP), que enfrenta a crise hídrica diante de um cenário de estiagem em 2013-2015, o pior na série histórica dos últimos 85 anos. Trata-se de uma região com 20,4 milhões de habitantes. O sistema é formado por oito sistemas produtores parcialmente integrados e operados pela Sabesp (Companhia de Saneamento do Estado de São Paulo). A RMSP é uma região com alta densidade demográfica, localizada na Bacia Hidrográfica do Alto Tietê e caracterizada pela baixa disponibilidade hídrica per capita. Foi abordada a possibilidade de considerar a evaporação durante as simulações, e a aplicação de uma regra de racionamento contínua nos reservatórios, que transforma a formulação do problema em programação não linear (PNL). A evaporação se mostrou pouco representativa em relação a vazão de atendimento à demanda, com cerca de 1% da vazão. Se por um lado uma vazão desta magnitude pode contribuir em um cenário crítico, por outro essa ordem de grandeza pode ser comparada às incertezas de medições ou previsões de afluências. O teste de sensibilidade das diferentes taxas de racionamento em função do volume armazenado permite analisar o tempo de resposta de cada sistema. A variação do tempo de recuperação, porém, não se mostrou muito significativo.

Modelo de otimização multiobjetivo aplicado ao projeto de concepção de submarinos convencionais.

Este trabalho apresenta um modelo de otimização multiobjetivo aplicado ao projeto de concepção de submarinos convencionais (i.e. de propulsão dieselelétrica). Um modelo de síntese que permite a estimativa de pesos, volume, velocidade, carga elétrica e outras características de interesse para a o projeto de concepção é formulado. O modelo de síntese é integrado a um modelo de otimização multiobjetivo baseado em algoritmos genéticos (especificamente, o algoritmo NSGA II). A otimização multiobjetivo consiste na maximização da efetividade militar do submarino e na minimização de seu custo. A efetividade militar do submarino é representada por uma Medida Geral de Efetividade (OMOE) estabelecida por meio do Processo Analítico Hierárquico (AHP). O Custo Básico de Construção (BCC) do submarino é estimado a partir dos seus grupos de peso. Ao fim do processo de otimização, é estabelecida uma Fronteira de Pareto composta por soluções não dominadas. Uma dessas soluções é selecionada para refinamento preliminar e os resultados são discutidos. Subsidiariamente, esta dissertação apresenta discussão sucinta sobre aspectos históricos e operativos relacionados a submarinos, bem como sobre sua metodologia de projeto. Alguns conceitos de Arquitetura Naval, aplicada ao projeto dessas embarcações, são também abordados.

Logística operacional: alocação de bases operacionais em distribuição de energia elétrica.

Ser eficiente é um requisito para a sustentabilidade das empresas concessionárias de distribuição de energia elétrica no Brasil. A busca pela eficiência deve estar em harmonia com a melhoria contínua da qualidade, da segurança e da satisfação dos consumidores e das partes envolvidas. O desafio de atender múltiplos objetivos requer que as empresas do setor desenvolvam soluções inovadoras, com a mudança de processos, tecnologia, estrutura e a capacitação das pessoas. Desenvolver um modelo operacional eficiente e uma gestão rigorosa dos custos são fatores-chave para o sucesso das empresas, considerando o contexto regulatório de revisão tarifária que incentiva a melhoria do desempenho. O modelo operacional é definido a partir da organização logística dos recursos para atendimento da demanda de serviços, que define também os custos fixos e variáveis de pessoal (salário, horas extras, refeições), infraestrutura (manutenção de prédios, ferramentas e equipamentos) e deslocamentos (manutenção de veículos, combustível), por exemplo. A melhor alocação e o melhor dimensionamento de bases operacionais possibilitam a redução dos custos com deslocamento e infraestrutura, favorecendo o aproveitamento da força de trabalho em campo, a melhoria do atendimento dos clientes e da segurança dos colaboradores. Este trabalho apresenta uma metodologia de otimização de custos através da alocação de bases e equipes operacionais, com o modelamento matemático dos objetivos e restrições do negócio e a aplicação de algoritmo evolutivo para busca das melhores soluções, sendo uma aplicação de Pesquisa Operacional, no campo da Localização de Instalações, em distribuição de energia elétrica. O modelo de otimização desenvolvido possibilita a busca pelo ponto de equilíbrio ótimo que minimiza o custo total formado pelos custos de infraestrutura, frota (veículos e deslocamentos) e pessoal. O algoritmo evolutivo aplicado no modelo oferece soluções otimizadas pelo melhoramento de conjuntos de variáveis binárias com base em conceitos da evolução genética. O modelo de otimização fornece o detalhamento de toda a estrutura operacional e de custos para uma determinada solução do problema, utilizando premissas de produtividade e deslocamentos (velocidades e distâncias) para definir as abrangências de atuação das bases operacionais, recursos (equipes, pessoas, veículos) necessários para atendimento da demanda de serviços, e projetar todos os custos fixos e variáveis associados. A metodologia desenvolvida neste trabalho considera também a projeção de demanda futura para a aplicação no estudo de caso, que evidenciou a efetividade da metodologia como ferramenta para a melhoria da eficiência operacional em empresas de distribuição de energia elétrica.

Simultaneous synthesis of work exchange networks with heat integration

The optimal integration of work and its interaction with heat can represent large energy savings in industrial plants. This paper introduces a new optimization model for the simultaneous synthesis of work exchange networks (WENs), with heat integration for the optimal pressure recovery of process gaseous streams. The proposed approach for the WEN synthesis is analogous to the well-known problem of synthesis of heat exchanger networks (HENs). Thus, there is work exchange between high-pressure (HP) and low-pressure (LP) streams, achieved by pressure manipulation equipment running on common axes. The model allows the use of several units of single-shaft-turbine-compressor (SSTC), as well as stand-alone compressors, turbines and valves. Helper motors and generators are used to respond to any demand and excess of energy. Moreover, between the WEN stages the streams are sent to the HEN to promote thermal recovery, aiming to enhance the work integration. A multi-stage superstructure is proposed to represent the process. The WEN superstructure is optimized in a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) formulation and solved with the GAMS software, with the goal of minimizing the total annualized cost. Three examples are conducted to verify the accuracy of the proposed method. In all case studies, the heat integration between WEN stages is essential to improve the pressure recovery, and to reduce the total costs involved in the process.

Robust Solutions of MultiObjective Linear Semi-Infinite Programs under Constraint Data Uncertainty

The multiobjective optimization model studied in this paper deals with simultaneous minimization of finitely many linear functions subject to an arbitrary number of uncertain linear constraints. We first provide a radius of robust feasibility guaranteeing the feasibility of the robust counterpart under affine data parametrization. We then establish dual characterizations of robust solutions of our model that are immunized against data uncertainty by way of characterizing corresponding solutions of robust counterpart of the model. Consequently, we present robust duality theorems relating the value of the robust model with the corresponding value of its dual problem.

Coal-fired Power Plants with Flexible Amine-based CCS and Co-located Wind Power: Environmental, Economic and Reliability Outcomes

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

Essays in Empirical Operations Management: Bayesian Learning of Service Quality and Structural Estimation of Complementary Product Pricing and Inventory Management

This dissertation contributes to the rapidly growing empirical research area in the field of operations management. It contains two essays, tackling two different sets of operations management questions which are motivated by and built on field data sets from two very different industries --- air cargo logistics and retailing.

The first essay, based on the data set obtained from a world leading third-party logistics company, develops a novel and general Bayesian hierarchical learning framework for estimating customers' spillover learning, that is, customers' learning about the quality of a service (or product) from their previous experiences with similar yet not identical services. We then apply our model to the data set to study how customers' experiences from shipping on a particular route affect their future decisions about shipping not only on that route, but also on other routes serviced by the same logistics company. We find that customers indeed borrow experiences from similar but different services to update their quality beliefs that determine future purchase decisions. Also, service quality beliefs have a significant impact on their future purchasing decisions. Moreover, customers are risk averse; they are averse to not only experience variability but also belief uncertainty (i.e., customer's uncertainty about their beliefs). Finally, belief uncertainty affects customers' utilities more compared to experience variability.

The second essay is based on a data set obtained from a large Chinese supermarket chain, which contains sales as well as both wholesale and retail prices of un-packaged perishable vegetables. Recognizing the special characteristics of this particularly product category, we develop a structural estimation model in a discrete-continuous choice model framework. Building on this framework, we then study an optimization model for joint pricing and inventory management strategies of multiple products, which aims at improving the company's profit from direct sales and at the same time reducing food waste and thus improving social welfare.

Collectively, the studies in this dissertation provide useful modeling ideas, decision tools, insights, and guidance for firms to utilize vast sales and operations data to devise more effective business strategies.