Calibrating a CGE model with NTBs that Incorporates Standard Models of Modern Trade Theory

We propose a way to incorporate NTBs for the four workhorse models of the modern trade literature in computable general equilibrium models (CGEs). CGE models feature intermediate linkages and thus allow us to study global value chains (GVCs). We show that the Ethier-Krugman monopolistic competition model, the Melitz firm heterogeneity model and the Eaton and Kortum model can be defined as an Armington model with generalized marginal costs, generalized trade costs and a demand externality. As already known in the literature in both the Ethier-Krugman model and the Melitz model generalized marginal costs are a function of the amount of factor input bundles. In the Melitz model generalized marginal costs are also a function of the price of the factor input bundles. Lower factor prices raise the number of firms that can enter the market profitably (extensive margin), reducing generalized marginal costs of a representative firm. For the same reason the Melitz model features a demand externality: in a larger market more firms can enter. We implement the different models in a CGE setting with multiple sectors, intermediate linkages, non-homothetic preferences and detailed data on trade costs. We find the largest welfare effects from trade cost reductions in the Melitz model. We also employ the Melitz model to mimic changes in Non tariff Barriers (NTBs) with a fixed cost-character by analysing the effect of changes in fixed trade costs. While we work here with a model calibrated to the GTAP database, the methods developed can also be applied to CGE models based on the WIOD database.

The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.

Non-conventional provisions in regional trade agreements : do they enhance international trade?

The scope of recent regional trade agreements (RTAs) is becoming much wider in terms of including several provisions such as competition policy or intellectual property. This paper empirically examines how far advanced, non-conventional provisions in RTAs increase trade values among RTA member countries, by estimating the gravity equation with more disaggregated indicators for RTAs. As a result, we find that the provision on competition policy has the largest impacts on trade values, following that on government procurement. Our further analysis reveals that the more significant roles of these two provisions can be also observed in the impacts on the intensive and extensive margins.

Exploring the sources of China's challenge to Japan : models of industrial organisation in the motorcycle industry

In view of the recent rise of China, this paper looks into one of the most important yet relatively overlooked ingredients of the Chinese success: industrial organisation. It will examine the case of the motorcycle industry, in which the rise of Chinese manufacturers even disrupted the established dominance of Japanese industry leaders. Adopting the modified version of the global value chain governance framework, this paper shows that the rise of China has been driven by a distinctive arm’s-length model of industrial organisation, which is in sharp contrast to the conventional captive model that has sustained the Japanese leadership.

Turbulence models of gravitational clustering.

Large-scale structure formation can be modeled as a nonlinear process that transfers energy from the largest scales to successively smaller scales until it is dissipated, in analogy with Kolmogorov’s cascade model of incompressible turbulence. However, cosmic turbulence is very compressible, and vorticity plays a secondary role in it. The simplest model of cosmic turbulence is the adhesion model, which can be studied perturbatively or adapting to it Kolmogorov’s non-perturbative approach to incompressible turbulence. This approach leads to observationally testable predictions, e.g., to the power-law exponent of the matter density two-point correlation function.

Analytical solution to the one-dimensional non-uniform absorption of solar radiation in uncoated and coated single glass panes

The analytical solution to the one-dimensional absorption–conduction heat transfer problem inside a single glass pane is presented, which correctly takes into account all the relevant physical phenomena: the appearance of multiple reflections, the spectral distribution of solar radiation, the spectral dependence of optical properties, the presence of possible coatings, the non-uniform nature of radiation absorption, and the diffusion of heat by conduction across the glass pane. Additionally to the well established and known direct absorptance αe, the derived solution introduces a new spectral quantity called direct absorptance moment βe, that indicates where in the glass pane is the absorption of radiation actually taking place. The theoretical and numerical comparison of the derived solution with existing approximate thermal models for the absorption–conduction problem reveals that the latter ones work best for low-absorbing uncoated single glass panes, something not necessarily fulfilled by modern glazings.

Continuum models of the mechanical behavior of rolled and die-cast magnesium alloys

En los últimos años ha habido una fuerte tendencia a disminuir las emisiones de CO2 y su negativo impacto medioambiental. En la industria del transporte, reducir el peso de los vehículos aparece como la mejor opción para alcanzar este objetivo. Las aleaciones de Mg constituyen un material con gran potencial para el ahorro de peso. Durante la última década se han realizado muchos esfuerzos encaminados a entender los mecanismos de deformación que gobiernan la plasticidad de estos materiales y así, las aleaciones de Mg de colada inyectadas a alta presión y forjadas son todavía objeto de intensas campañas de investigación. Es ahora necesario desarrollar modelos que contemplen la complejidad inherente de los procesos de deformación de éstos. Esta tesis doctoral constituye un intento de entender mejor la relación entre la microestructura y el comportamiento mecánico de aleaciones de Mg, y dará como resultado modelos de policristales capaces de predecir propiedades macro- y microscópicas. La deformación plástica de las aleaciones de Mg está gobernada por una combinación de mecanismos de deformación característicos de la estructura cristalina hexagonal, que incluye el deslizamiento cristalográfico en planos basales, prismáticos y piramidales, así como el maclado. Las aleaciones de Mg de forja presentan texturas fuertes y por tanto los mecanismos de deformación activos dependen de la orientación de la carga aplicada. En este trabajo se ha desarrollado un modelo de plasticidad cristalina por elementos finitos con el objetivo de entender el comportamiento macro- y micromecánico de la aleación de Mg laminada AZ31 (Mg-3wt.%Al-1wt.%Zn). Este modelo, que incorpora el maclado y tiene en cuenta el endurecimiento por deformación debido a las interacciones dislocación-dislocación, dislocación-macla y macla-macla, predice exitosamente las actividades de los distintos mecanismos de deformación y la evolución de la textura con la deformación. Además, se ha llevado a cabo un estudio que combina difracción de electrones retrodispersados en tres dimensiones y modelización para investigar el efecto de los límites de grano en la propagación del maclado en el mismo material. Ambos, experimentos y simulaciones, confirman que el ángulo de desorientación tiene una influencia decisiva en la propagación del maclado. Se ha observado que los efectos no-Schmid, esto es, eventos de deformación plástica que no cumplen la ley de Schmid con respecto a la carga aplicada, no tienen lugar en la vecindad de los límites de baja desorientación y se hacen más frecuentes a medida que la desorientación aumenta. Esta investigación también prueba que la morfología de las maclas está altamente influenciada por su factor de Schmid. Es conocido que los procesos de colada suelen dar lugar a la formación de microestructuras con una microporosidad elevada, lo cuál afecta negativamente a sus propiedades mecánicas. La aplicación de presión hidrostática después de la colada puede reducir la porosidad y mejorar las propiedades aunque es poco conocido su efecto en el tamaño y morfología de los poros. En este trabajo se ha utilizado un enfoque mixto experimentalcomputacional, basado en tomografía de rayos X, análisis de imagen y análisis por elementos finitos, para la determinación de la distribución tridimensional (3D) de la porosidad y de la evolución de ésta con la presión hidrostática en la aleación de Mg AZ91 (Mg- 9wt.%Al-1wt.%Zn) colada por inyección a alta presión. La distribución real de los poros en 3D obtenida por tomografía se utilizó como input para las simulaciones por elementos finitos. Los resultados revelan que la aplicación de presión tiene una influencia significativa tanto en el cambio de volumen como en el cambio de forma de los poros que han sido cuantificados con precisión. Se ha observado que la reducción del tamaño de éstos está íntimamente ligada con su volumen inicial. En conclusión, el modelo de plasticidad cristalina propuesto en este trabajo describe con éxito los mecanismos intrínsecos de la deformación de las aleaciones de Mg a escalas meso- y microscópica. Más especificamente, es capaz de capturar las activadades del deslizamiento cristalográfico y maclado, sus interacciones, así como los efectos en la porosidad derivados de los procesos de colada. ---ABSTRACT--- The last few years have seen a growing effort to reduce CO2 emissions and their negative environmental impact. In the transport industry more specifically, vehicle weight reduction appears as the most straightforward option to achieve this objective. To this end, Mg alloys constitute a significant weight saving material alternative. Many efforts have been devoted over the last decade to understand the main mechanisms governing the plasticity of these materials and, despite being already widely used, high pressure die-casting and wrought Mg alloys are still the subject of intense research campaigns. Developing models that can contemplate the complexity inherent to the deformation of Mg alloys is now timely. This PhD thesis constitutes an attempt to better understand the relationship between the microstructure and the mechanical behavior of Mg alloys, as it will result in the design of polycrystalline models that successfully predict macro- and microscopic properties. Plastic deformation of Mg alloys is driven by a combination of deformation mechanisms specific to their hexagonal crystal structure, namely, basal, prismatic and pyramidal dislocation slip as well as twinning. Wrought Mg alloys present strong textures and thus specific deformation mechanisms are preferentially activated depending on the orientation of the applied load. In this work a crystal plasticity finite element model has been developed in order to understand the macro- and micromechanical behavior of a rolled Mg AZ31 alloy (Mg-3wt.%Al-1wt.%Zn). The model includes twinning and accounts for slip-slip, slip-twin and twin-twin hardening interactions. Upon calibration and validation against experiments, the model successfully predicts the activity of the various deformation mechanisms and the evolution of the texture at different deformation stages. Furthermore, a combined three-dimensional electron backscatter diffraction and modeling approach has been adopted to investigate the effect of grain boundaries on twin propagation in the same material. Both experiments and simulations confirm that the misorientation angle has a critical influence on twin propagation. Non-Schmid effects, i.e. plastic deformation events that do not comply with the Schmid law with respect to the applied stress, are absent in the vicinity of low misorientation boundaries and become more abundant as misorientation angle increases. This research also proves that twin morphology is highly influenced by the Schmid factor. Finally, casting processes usually lead to the formation of significant amounts of gas and shrinkage microporosity, which adversely affect the mechanical properties. The application of hydrostatic pressure after casting can reduce the porosity and improve the properties but little is known about the effects on the casting’s pores size and morphology. In this work, an experimental-computational approach based on X-ray computed tomography, image analysis and finite element analysis is utilized for the determination of the 3D porosity distribution and its evolution with hydrostatic pressure in a high pressure diecast Mg AZ91 alloy (Mg-9wt.%Al-1wt.%Zn). The real 3D pore distribution obtained by tomography is used as input for the finite element simulations using an isotropic hardening law. The model is calibrated and validated against experimental stress-strain curves. The results reveal that the pressure treatment has a significant influence both on the volume and shape changes of individuals pores, which have been precisely quantified, and which are found to be related to the initial pore volume. In conclusion, the crystal plasticity model proposed in this work successfully describes the intrinsic deformation mechanisms of Mg alloys both at the mesoscale and the microscale. More specifically, it can capture slip and twin activities, their interactions, as well as the potential porosity effects arising from casting processes.

An introduction to flow and transport in fractal models of porous media: Part I

This special issue gathers together a number of recent papers on fractal geometry and its applications to the modeling of flow and transport in porous media. The aim is to provide a systematic approach for analyzing the statics and dynamics of fluids in fractal porous media by means of theory, modeling and experimentation. The topics covered include lacunarity analyses of multifractal and natural grayscale patterns, random packing's of self-similar pore/particle size distributions, Darcian and non-Darcian hydraulic flows, diffusion within fractals, models for the permeability and thermal conductivity of fractal porous media and hydrophobicity and surface erosion properties of fractal structures.

From cell death to embryo arrest: Mathematical models of human preimplantation embryo development

Human preimplantation embryos exhibit high levels of apoptotic cells and high rates of developmental arrest during the first week in vitro. The relation between the two is unclear and difficult to determine by conventional experimental approaches, partly because of limited numbers of embryos. We apply a mixture of experiment and mathematical modeling to show that observed levels of cell death can be reconciled with the high levels of embryo arrest seen in the human only if the developmental competence of embryos is already established at the zygote stage, and environmental factors merely modulate this. This suggests that research on improving in vitro fertilization success rates should move from its current concentration on optimizing culture media to focus more on the generation of a healthy zygote and on understanding the mechanisms that cause chromosomal and other abnormalities during early cleavage stages.

An Investigation of Career Tenure in the European Parliament: Electoral, Party and Individual Considerations. ACES Working Papers, 2012

What explains the length of a Member of the European Parliament’s career? Little evidence of careerism has been uncovered in the European Parliament, particularly when compared to studies of legislator tenure in the U.S. Congress. Due to the different historical contexts in which these two legislatures developed, it seems reasonable to rule out many of the explanations used to account for increasing careerism in Congress in searching for the influences on legislator tenure in the European Parliament. This paper therefore proposes three potential models of careerism in the European Parliament: an electoral systems model, a party model, and an individual model. While the data necessary to test these models has not been fully compiled, this paper outlines the major hypotheses of each model and details plans for the operationalization of all independent and control variables. These models are not intended to be mutually exclusive alternatives, but rather each explanation is expected to influence each MEP in varying degrees.

Comparisons between analogue and numerical models of thrust wedge development

Analogue and finite element numerical models with frictional and viscous properties are used to model thrust wedge development. Comparison between model types yields valuable information about analogue model evolution, scaling laws and the relative strengths and limitations of the techniques. Both model types show a marked contrast in structural style between ‘frictional-viscous domains’ underlain by a thin viscous layer and purely ‘frictional domains’. Closely spaced thrusts form a narrow and highly asymmetric fold-and-thrust belt in the frictional domain, characterized by in-sequence propagation of forward thrusts. In contrast, the frictional-viscous domain shows a wide and low taper wedge and a thrust belt with a more symmetrical vergence, with both forward and back thrusts. The frictional-viscous domain numerical models show that the viscous layer initially simple shears as deformation propagates along it, while localized deformation resulting in the formation of a pop-up structure occurs in the overlying frictional layers. In both domains, thrust shear zones in the numerical model are generally steeper than the equivalent faults in the analogue model, because the finite element code uses a non-associated plasticity flow law. Nevertheless, the qualitative agreement between analogue and numerical models is encouraging. It shows that the continuum approximation used in numerical models can be used to model frictional materials, such as sand, provided caution is taken to properly scale the experiments, and some of the limitations are taken into account.

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Energy level statistics for models of coupled single-mode Bose-Einstein condensates

We study the distribution of energy level spacings in two models describing coupled single-mode Bose-Einstein condensates. Both models have a fixed number of degrees of freedom, which is small compared to the number of interaction parameters, and is independent of the dimensionality of the Hilbert space. We find that the distribution follows a universal Poisson form independent of the choice of coupling parameters, which is indicative of the integrability of both models. These results complement those for integrable lattice models where the number of degrees of freedom increases with increasing dimensionality of the Hilbert space. Finally, we also show that for one model the inclusion of an additional interaction which breaks the integrability leads to a non-Poisson distribution.

Images of desire: Cognitive models of craving

Cognitive modelling of phenomena in clinical practice allows the operationalisation of otherwise diffuse descriptive terms such as craving or flashbacks. This supports the empirical investigation of the clinical phenomena and the development of targeted treatment interventions. This paper focuses on the cognitive processes underpinning craving, which is recognised as a motivating experience in substance dependence. We use a high-level cognitive architecture, Interacting Cognitive Subsystems (ICS), to compare two theories of craving: Tiffany's theory, centred on the control of automated action schemata, and our own Elaborated Intrusion theory of craving. Data from a questionnaire study of the subjective aspects of everyday desires experienced by a large non-clinical population are presented. Both the data and the high-level modelling support the central claim of the Elaborated Intrusion theory that imagery is a key element of craving, providing the subjective experience and mediating much of the associated disruption of concurrent cognition.

Elasticity, yielding and episodicity in simple models of mantle convection

We explore the implications of refinements in the mechanical description of planetary constituents on the convection modes predicted by finite-element simulations. The refinements consist in the inclusion of incremental elasticity, plasticity (yielding) and multiple simultaneous creep mechanisms in addition to the usual visco-plastic models employed in the context of unified plate-mantle models. The main emphasis of this paper rests on the constitutive and computational formulation of the model. We apply a consistent incremental formulation of the non-linear governing equations avoiding the computationally expensive iterations that are otherwise necessary to handle the onset of plastic yield. In connection with episodic convection simulations, we point out the strong dependency of the results on the choice of the initial temperature distribution. Our results also indicate that the inclusion of elasticity in the constitutive relationships lowers the mechanical energy associated with subduction events.