Hybrid Wavelet-PSO-ANFIS Approach for Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting

A novel hybrid approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization, and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is proposed in this paper for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

C3G - A portuguese collaboration for geology, geodesy and geophysics

Portugal joined the effort to create the EPOS infrastructure in 2008, and it became immediately apparent that a national network of Earth Sciences infrastructures was required to participate in the initiative. At that time, FCT was promoting the creation of a national infrastructure called RNG - Rede Nacional de Geofísica (National Geophysics Network). A memorandum of understanding had been agreed upon, and it seemed therefore straightforward to use RNG (enlarged to include relevant participants that were not RNG members) as the Portuguese partner to EPOS-PP. However, at the time of signature of the EPOS-PP contract with the European Commission (November 2010), RNG had not gained formal identity yet, and IST (one of the participants) signed the grant agreement on behalf of the Portuguese consortium. During 2011 no progress was made towards the formal creation of RNG, and the composition of the network – based on proposals submitted to a call issued in 2002 – had by then become obsolete. On February 2012, the EPOS national contact point was mandated by the representatives of the participating national infrastructures to request from FCT the recognition of a new consortium - C3G, Collaboratory for Geology, Geodesy and Geophysics - as the Portuguese partner to EPOS-PP. This request was supported by formal letters from the following institutions: ‐ LNEG. Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia (National Geological Survey); ‐ IGP ‐ Instituto Geográfico Português (National Geographic Institute); ‐ IDL, Instituto Dom Luiz – Laboratório Associado ‐ CGE, Centro de Geofísica de Évora; ‐ FCTUC, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade de Coimbra; ‐ Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa; ‐ Instituto Superior Técnico; ‐ Universidade da Beira Interior. While Instituto de Meteorologia (Meteorological Institute, in charge of the national seismographic network) actively supports the national participation in EPOS, a letter of support was not feasible in view of the organic changes underway at the time. C3G aims at the integration and coordination, at national level, of existing Earth Sciences infrastructures, namely: ‐ seismic and geodetic networks (IM, IST, IDL, CGE); ‐ rock physics laboratories (ISEL); ‐ geophysical laboratories dedicated to natural resources and environmental studies; ‐ geological and geophysical data repositories; ‐ facilities for data storage and computing resources. The C3G - Collaboratory for Geology, Geodesy and Geophysics will be coordinated by Universidade da Beira Interior, whose Department of Informatics will host the C3G infrastructure.

Optimal offering strategies for wind power producers considering uncertainty and risk

This paper provides a two-stage stochastic programming approach for the development of optimal offering strategies for wind power producers. Uncertainty is related to electricity market prices and wind power production. A hybrid intelligent approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is used in this paper to generate plausible scenarios. Also, risk aversion is explicitly modeled using the conditional value-at-risk methodology. Results from a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, are provided and analyzed. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks Training Through Charged System Search and its Application for Non-Technical Losses Detection

The non-technical loss is not a problem with trivial solution or regional character and its minimization represents the guarantee of investments in product quality and maintenance of power systems, introduced by a competitive environment after the period of privatization in the national scene. In this paper, we show how to improve the training phase of a neural network-based classifier using a recently proposed meta-heuristic technique called Charged System Search, which is based on the interactions between electrically charged particles. The experiments were carried out in the context of non-technical loss in power distribution systems in a dataset obtained from a Brazilian electrical power company, and have demonstrated the robustness of the proposed technique against with several others natureinspired optimization techniques for training neural networks. Thus, it is possible to improve some applications on Smart Grids.

Generalized Extraction of Real-Time Parameters for Homogeneous Synchronous Dataflow Graphs

23rd Euromicro International Conference on Parallel, Distributed, and Network-Based Processing (PDP 2015). 4 to 6, Mar, 2015. Turku, Finland.

Corporate networks in Poland: Interlocking directorates and business systems

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Welfare analysis of regulating mobile termination rates in the UK with an application to the Orange/T-Mobile merger

We present a calibrated model of the UK mobile telephony market with four mobile networks; calls to and from the fixed network; network-based price discrimination; and call externalities. Our results show that reducing mobile termination rates broadly in line with the recent European Commission Recommendation to either pure long-run incremental cost ; reciprocal termination charges with fixed networks; or Bill & Keep (i.e. zero termination rates), increases social welfare, consumer surplus and networks profits. Depending on the strength of call externalities, social welfare may increase by as much as £ 990 million to £ 4.5 billion per year, with Bill & Keep leading to the highest increase in welfare. We also apply the model to estimate the welfare effects of the 2010 merger between Orange and T-Mobile under different scenarios concerning MTRs, and predict that consumer surplus decreases strongly.

Complex networks and data mining: toward a new perspective for the understanding of complex systems

Complex systems, i.e. systems composed of a large set of elements interacting in a non-linear way, are constantly found all around us. In the last decades, different approaches have been proposed toward their understanding, one of the most interesting being the Complex Network perspective. This legacy of the 18th century mathematical concepts proposed by Leonhard Euler is still current, and more and more relevant in real-world problems. In recent years, it has been demonstrated that network-based representations can yield relevant knowledge about complex systems. In spite of that, several problems have been detected, mainly related to the degree of subjectivity involved in the creation and evaluation of such network structures. In this Thesis, we propose addressing these problems by means of different data mining techniques, thus obtaining a novel hybrid approximation intermingling complex networks and data mining. Results indicate that such techniques can be effectively used to i) enable the creation of novel network representations, ii) reduce the dimensionality of analyzed systems by pre-selecting the most important elements, iii) describe complex networks, and iv) assist in the analysis of different network topologies. The soundness of such approach is validated through different validation cases drawn from actual biomedical problems, e.g. the diagnosis of cancer from tissue analysis, or the study of the dynamics of the brain under different neurological disorders.

Localization in underground tunnels

Positioning technologies are becoming ubiquitous and are being used more and more frequently for supporting a large variety of applica- tions. For outdoor applications, global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs), such as the global positioning system (GPS), are the most common and popular choice because of their wide coverage. GPS is also augmented with network-based systems that exploit existing wireless and mobile networks for providing positioning functions where GPS is not available or to save energy in battery-powered devices. Indoors, GNSSs are not a viable solution, but many applications require very accurate, fast, and exible positioning, tracking, and navigation functions. These and other requirements have stim- ulated research activities, in both industry and academia, where a variety of fundamental principles, techniques, and sensors are being integrated to provide positioning functions to many applications. The large majority of positioning technologies is for indoor environments, and most of the existing commercial products have been developed for use in of ce buildings, airports, shopping malls, factory plants, and similar spaces. There are, however, other spaces where positioning, tracking, and navigation systems play a central role in safety and in rescue operations, as well as in supporting speci c activities or for scienti c research activities in other elds. Among those spaces are underground tunnels, mines, and even underwater wells and caves. This chapter describes the research efforts over the past few years that have been put into the development of positioning systems for underground tun- nels, with particular emphasis in the case of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN (the European Organization for Nuclear Research), where localiza- tion aims at enabling more automatic and unmanned radiation surveys. Examples of positioning and localization systems that have been devel- oped in the past few years for underground facilities are presented in the fol- lowing section, together with a brief characterization of those spaces’ special conditions and the requirements of some of the most common applications. Section 5.2 provides a short overview of some of the most representative research efforts that are currently being carried out by many research teams around the world. In addition, some of the fundamental principles and tech- niques are identi ed, such as the use of leaky coaxial cables, as used at the LHC. In Section 5.3, we introduce the speci c environment of the LHC and de ne the positioning requirements for the envisaged application. This is followed by a detailed description of our approach and the results that have been achieved so far. Some last comments and remarks are presented in a nal section.

Stage at presentation of breast cancer in Luanda, Angola - a retrospective study

Background: It is expected that, by 2020, 15 million new cases of cancer will occur every year in the world, one million of them in Africa. Knowledge of cancer trends in African countries is far from adequate, and improvements in cancer prevention efforts are urgently needed. The aim of this study was to characterize breast cancer clinically and pathologically at presentation in Luanda, Angola; we additionally provide quality information that will be useful for breast cancer care planning in the country. Methods: Data on breast cancer cases were retrieved from the Angolan Institute of Cancer Control, from 2006 to 2014. For women diagnosed in 2009 (5-years of follow-up), demographic, clinical and pathological information, at presentation, was collected, namely age at diagnosis, parity, methods used for pathological diagnoses, tumor pathological characteristics, stage of disease and treatment. Descriptive statistics were performed. Results: The median age of women diagnosed with breast cancer in 2009 was 47 years old (range 25–89). The most frequent clinical presentation was breast swelling with axillary lymph nodes metastasis (44.9 %), followed by a mass larger than 5 cm (14.2 %) and lump (12.9 %). Invasive ductal carcinoma was the main histologic type (81.8 %). Only 10.1 % of cancer cases had a well differentiated histological grade. Cancers were diagnosed mostly at advanced stages (66.7 % in stage III and 11.1 % in stage IV). Discussion: In this study, breast cancer was diagnosed at a very advanced stage. Although it reports data from a single cancer center in Luanda, Angola it reinforces the need for early diagnosis and increasing awareness. According to the main challenges related to breast cancer diagnosis and treatment herein presented, we propose a realistic framework that would allow for the implementation of a breast cancer care program, built under a strong network based on cooperation, teaching, audit, good practices and the organization of health services. Conclusion: Angola needs urgently a program for early diagnosis of breast cancer.

Evolution des transferts interhospitaliers au départ d'un centre hospitalier universitaire suisse [Trends in interhospital transfers from a Swiss university hospital center].

OBJECTIVE: Research on interhospital transfers provides a basis for describing and quantifying patient flow and its evolution over time, offering an insight into hospital organization and management and hospital overcrowding. The purpose of this study was to conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis of patient flow and to examine trends over an eight-year period. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive study of interhospital transfers was conducted between 2003 and 2011 based on an analysis of demographic, medical and operational characteristics. Ambulance transfers and transfers requiring physician assistance were analyzed separately. RESULTS: The number of interhospital transfers increased significantly over the study period,from 4,026 in 2003 to 6,481 in 2011 (+60.9%). The number of ambulance transfers increased by almost 300% (616 in 2003 compared to 2,460 in 2011). Most of the transfers (98%) were to hospitals located less than 75 km from the university hospital (median: 24 km, 5-44). In 2011, 24% of all transfers were to psychiatric institutions. 26% of all transfer cases were direct transfers from the emergency department. An increasing number of transfers required physician assistance. 18% of these patients required ventilatory support, whole 9.8% required vasoactive drugs. 11.6% of these transfers were due to hospital overcrowding. Conclusion: The study shows that there has been a significant increase in interhospital transfers. This increase is related to hospital overcrowding and to the network-based systems governing patient care strategies.

Desenvolupament d'una aplicació Android per a Moodle

L'evolució que la tecnologia de les comunicacions sense fils ha experimentat en els darrers anys permet que avui en dia els dispositius mòbils proporcionin una resposta més que acceptable. Ja s'han superat molts dels problemes de mobilitat, d'infraestructura i d'ample de banda que fins ara dificultaven l'ús d'aquests dispositius. Aquest fet ha fomentat l'expansió de diferents sistemes dels que es pot destacar Android, iPhone OS i Windows Mobile/Windows Phone 7. Els dos primers són els que actualment es disputen el lideratge del mercat dels dispositius i aplicacions mòbils i és Android el que ha experimentat el major creixement els darrers anys. Paral·lelament, la constant introducció de programari d'e-learning destinat a activitats de formació no presencial basades en Internet ha permès arribar a milions d'usuaris en diferents àmbits, com ara universitats, empreses i institucions d'arreu del món. D'aquest conjunt de programari destaca Moodle, suite de codi obert que permet crear llocs web de formació en línia de forma senzilla i eficaç.Aquest Projecte de Final de Carrera, emmarcat en l'àrea de Xarxes de Computadors, conjugaaquests tres conceptes mitjançant el desenvolupament d'una aplicació per a dispositius mòbils Android que connecta a un servidor Moodle. La comunicació entre ells utilitza intensivament les xarxes sense fils i fa crides als serveis que aquest ofereix gràcies als Web Services, mètode de comunicacions composat d'un conjunt de protocols i de programari que permet la comunicació entre dos dispositius a través de la xarxa.

Connectivity differences in brain networks.

The scenario considered here is one where brain connectivity is represented as a network and an experimenter wishes to assess the evidence for an experimental effect at each of the typically thousands of connections comprising the network. To do this, a univariate model is independently fitted to each connection. It would be unwise to declare significance based on an uncorrected threshold of α=0.05, since the expected number of false positives for a network comprising N=90 nodes and N(N-1)/2=4005 connections would be 200. Control of Type I errors over all connections is therefore necessary. The network-based statistic (NBS) and spatial pairwise clustering (SPC) are two distinct methods that have been used to control family-wise errors when assessing the evidence for an experimental effect with mass univariate testing. The basic principle of the NBS and SPC is the same as supra-threshold voxel clustering. Unlike voxel clustering, where the definition of a voxel cluster is unambiguous, 'clusters' formed among supra-threshold connections can be defined in different ways. The NBS defines clusters using the graph theoretical concept of connected components. SPC on the other hand uses a more stringent pairwise clustering concept. The purpose of this article is to compare the pros and cons of the NBS and SPC, provide some guidelines on their practical use and demonstrate their utility using a case study involving neuroimaging data.

A Simple Access Pricing Rule to Achieve the Ramsey Outcome in Two-Way Access

In this paper, I consider a general and informationally effcient approach to determine the optimal access rule and show that there exists a simple rule that achieves the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium when networks compete in linear prices without network-based price discrimination. My approach is informationally effcient in the sense that the regulator is required to know only the marginal cost structure, i.e. the marginal cost of making and terminating a call. The approach is general in that access prices can depend not only on the marginal costs but also on the retail prices, which can be observed by consumers and therefore by the regulator as well. In particular, I consider the set of linear access pricing rules which includes any fixed access price, the Efficient Component Pricing Rule (ECPR) and the Modified ECPR as special cases. I show that in this set, there is a unique access rule that achieves the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium as long as there exists at least a mild degree of substitutability among networks' services.