Customer retention management in the recession

The purpose of this article is to explore customer retention strategies and tactics implemented by firms in recession. Our investigations show just how big a challenge many organizations face in their ability to manage customer retention effectively. While leading organizations have embedded real-time customer life cycle management, developed accurate early warning systems, price elasticity models and ‘deal calculators’, the organizations we spoke to have only gone as far as calculating the value at risk and building simple predictive models.

Barn och katastrofer : en systematisk litteraturstudie

Syftet med denna litteraturstudie var att belysa ämnet barn och katastrofer, som hur barn reagerar efter traumatiska händelser, hur de utvecklar Post- Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), hur PTSD behandlas samt hur vårdpersonal kan hjälpa barn på bästa sätt. Studien var en systematisk litteraturstudie. Litteraturen söktes via Elin@dalarna, Pub Med och DOAJ. Sökord som användes för att få fram relevanta artiklar var: ”adaption”, ”care”, ”catastrophe”, ”children”, ”child”, ”disasters”, ”help”, ”natural disaster”, ”PTSD”, ”react”, ”trauma”. Dessa ord användes ett och ett samt i kombination med varandra. De vetenskapliga artiklarna som användes kvalitetsbedömdes med en kombinerad granskningsmall av Forsberg och Wengström (2003) samt Willman och Stoltz (2002) granskningsmallar för kvalitativa och kvantitativa studier. Denna granskning resulterade i ett urval av 16 vetenskapliga artiklar som var publicerade mellan1990 och 2006 och var skrivna på svenska eller engelska. Sökorden fanns med i artikelns titel eller abstract, samt att dess innehåll skulle besvara frågeställningarna som fanns. De studier som granskades i denna uppsats visade att barn reagerar väldigt olika beroende på deras sociala liv och levnadsstandard, samt hur svårt drabbade de blivit av naturkatastrofen. Barns första reaktioner efter en naturkatastrof var ofta ilska och aggressioner över det inträffade, barnen anklagade ofta sig själva för det inträffade. Barn som levde under sociala missförhållande, utan föräldrar, hem och vänner löpte högre risk att få symtom på PTSD, och det var vanligare att flickor fick symtom än pojkar. De vanligaste behandlingsmetoderna för symtom av PTSD var kognitiv beteendeterapi och läkemedel. Den viktigaste hjälpen för barn som upplevt en naturkatastrof var att hjälpa dem tillbaka till det vardagliga livet.

Essays on banking theory and history of financial arrangements

Esta tese contém dois capítulos, cada um lidando com a teoria e a história dos bancos e arranjos financeiros. No capítulo 1, busca-se extender uma economia Diamond-Dybvig com monitoramento imperfeito dos saques antecipados e realizar uma comparação do bem estar social em cada uma das alocações possíveis, como proposto em Presscott and Weinberg(2003). Esse monitoramento imperfeito é implementado a partir da comunicação indireta ( através de um meio de pagamento) entre os agentes e a máquina de depósitos e saques que é um agregado do setor produtivo e financeiro. A extensão consiste em estudar alocações onde uma fração dos agentes pode explorar o monitoramento imperfeito e fraudar a alocação contratada ao consumirem mais cedo além do limite, usando múltiplos meios de pagamento. Com a punição limitada no período de consumo tardio, essa nova alocação pode ser chamada de uma alocação separadora em contraste com as alocações agregadoras onde o agente com habilidade de fraudar é bloqueado por um meio de pagamento imune a fraude, mas custoso, ou por receber consumo futuro suficiente para tornar a fraude desinteressante. A comparação de bem estar na gama de parâmetros escolhida mostra que as alocações separadoras são ótimas para as economias com menor dotação e as agregadoras para as de nível intermediário e as ricas. O capítulo termina com um possível contexto histórico para o modelo, o qual se conecta com a narrativa histórica encontrada no capítulo 2. No capítulo 2 são exploradas as propriedade quantitativas de um sistema de previsão antecedente para crises financeiras, com as váriaveis sendo escolhidas a partir de um arcabouço de ``boom and bust'' descrito mais detalhadamente no apêndice 1. As principais variáveis são: o crescimento real nos preços de imóveis e ações, o diferencial entre os juros dos títulos governamentais de 10 anos e a taxa de 3 meses no mercado inter-bancário e o crescimento nos ativos totais do setor bancário. Essas variáveis produzem uma taxa mais elevada de sinais corretos para as crises bancárias recentes (1984-2008) do que os sistemas de indicadores antecedentes comparáveis. Levar em conta um risco de base crescente ( devido à tendência de acumulação de distorções no sistema de preços relativos em expansões anteriores) também provê informação e eleva o número de sinais corretos em países que não passaram por uma expansão creditícia e nos preços de ativos tão vigorosa.

Uma Aplicação do Algoritmo QT Clustering para Marcação Colaborativa de Pontos Perigosos em Vias Públicas

This work proposes a collaborative system for marking dangerous points in the transport routes and generation of alerts to drivers. It consisted of a proximity warning system for a danger point that is fed by the driver via a mobile device equipped with GPS. The system will consolidate data provided by several different drivers and generate a set of points common to be used in the warning system. Although the application is designed to protect drivers, the data generated by it can serve as inputs for the responsible to improve signage and recovery of public roads

Revisão sobre técnicas de controle em estruturas inteligentes

One of the great challenges of structural dynamics is to ally structures lighther and stronger. The great difficulty is that light systems, in general, have a low inherent damping. Besides, they contain resonance frequencies in the low frequency range. So, any external disturbance can excite the system in some resonance and the resulting effect can be drastic. The methodologies of active damping, with control algorithms and piezoelectric sensors and actuators coupled in a base structure, are attractive in current days, in order to overcome the contradictory features of these requeriments. In this sense, this article contributes with a bibliographical review of the literature on the importance of active noise and vibration control in engineering applications, models of smart structures, techniques of optimal placement of piezoelectric sensors and actuators and methodologies of structural active control. Finally, it is discussed the future perspectives in this area.

A nonlinear and non-ideal wind generator supporting structure

We present a simple mathematical model of a wind turbine supporting tower. Here, the wind excitation is considered to be a non-ideal power source. In such a consideration, there is interaction between the energy supply and the motion of the supporting structure. If power is not enough, the rotation of the generator may get stuck at a resonance frequency of the structure. This is a manifestation of the so-called Sommerfeld Effect. In this model, at first, only two degrees of freedom are considered, the horizontal motion of the upper tip of the tower, in the transverse direction to the wind, and the generator rotation. Next, we add another degree of freedom, the motion of a free rolling mass inside a chamber. Its impact with the walls of the chamber provides control of both the amplitude of the tower vibration and the width of the band of frequencies in which the Sommerfeld effect occur. Some numerical simulations are performed using the equations of motion of the models obtained via a Lagrangian approach.

Análisis de género en la evaluación de los efectos socioeconómicos de los desastres naturales

Incluye Bibliografía

Produtividade, estabilidade e adaptabilidade em progênies de Myracrodruon urundeuva F.F. & M.F. Allemão-Anacardiaceae

The use and inadequate exploitation of natural resources is restricting the occurrence of aroeira (Myracrodruon urundeuva F.F. & M.F. Allemão), which now is on the FAO list of endangered species. This exploitation causes a decrease in the genetic base of M. urundeuva populations, which makes it difficult to find genotypes with stability and adaptability to different growing conditions. This study aimed at estimating the genetic variation and productivity, stability and adaptability of progenies of a M. urundeuva natural population, from the Ecological Station of Paulo de Faria-SP, under different planting systems. DBH (diameter at breast height) was evaluated in four progeny tests of M. urundeuva: i) planted with Anandenanthera falcata and Guazuma ulmifolia (TP-AMA); ii) single (TP-ASO); iii) planted with annual crops (TP-SAF) and iv) planted with Corymbia citriodora (TP-EUCA), installed in Selvíria-MS. The experimental design consisted of complete randomized blocks with three replications and a variable number of plants per plot in each of the four planting systems. From the joint analysis of the planting systems studied, it was found that: i) there were variations among planting systems particularly in TP-SAF; ii) only in TP-EUCA it was possible to detect variations among the progenies; iii) the effects of the genotype x environment interaction were not significant. Thereby, the harmonic mean of genotypic values (MHVG), the relative performance of genotypic values from the mean of each site (PRVG) and the harmonic mean of the relative performance of genotypic values (MHPRVG) for DBH showed, respectively: progenies with greater stability, adaptability, and stability and simultaneous adaptability within different planting systems. The use of these selection criteria provided a more refined selection of the best progenies of M. urundeuva under the different planting systems studied.

Modelling fungus dispersal scenarios using cellular automata

This study focused on representing spatio-temporal patterns of fungal dispersal using cellular automata. Square lattices were used, with each site representing a host for a hypothetical fungus population. Four possible host states were allowed: resistant, permissive, latent or infectious. In this model, the probability of infection for each of the healthy states (permissive or resistant) in a time step was determined as a function of the host's susceptibility, seasonality, and the number of infectious sites and the distance between them. It was also assumed that infected sites become infectious after a pre-specified latency period, and that recovery is not possible. Several scenarios were simulated to understand the contribution of the model's parameters and the spatial structure on the dynamic behaviour of the modelling system. The model showed good capability for representing the spatio-temporal pattern of fungus dispersal over planar surfaces. With a specific problem in mind, the model can be easily modified and used to describe field behaviour, which can contribute to the conservation and development of management strategies for both natural and agricultural systems. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Avaliação audiológica e quantificação da exposição ao ruído em profissionais do corpo de bombeiros

Pós-graduação em Fonoaudiologia - FFC

A metáfora e a sua representação em sistemas de processamento automático de línguas naturais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Influência da construção da usina hidroelétrica de Porto Primavera na evolução de canais de primeira ordem da rede de drenagem do Ribeirão das Anhumas - UGRHI Pontal do Paranapanema

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

Caracterização por espectroscopia vibracional de filmes Layer-by-Layer contendo ftalocianina, polímeros condutores e gomas naturais

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efeitos de desastres naturais ao desempenho orçamentário do estado do Pará

Este trabalho avalia os efeitos dos desastres naturais ao desempenho orçamentário do Governo do Estado do Pará no período de 2000 a 2012, através da análise de correlação do número de decretos de Situação de Emergência ou Estado de Calamidade Pública com: a) a eficiência orçamentária de áreas prioritárias à Gestão de Riscos Naturais; e b) o risco fiscal, calculado pela redução das receitas e realocação do total de verbas previstas. Os resultados indicam que, no Estado do Pará, a vulnerabilidade fiscal aos desastres naturais é alta, principalmente nas áreas de Prevenção (Ciência e Tecnologia e Meio Ambiente). As principais alternativas para a redução dos impactos são o fortalecimento das ações de curto-prazo, o estabelecimento de fundos monetários e a melhoria das atividades de Prevenção.