Piecewise Linear Models for the Quasiperiodic Transition to Chaos

We formulate and study analytically and computationally two families of piecewise linear degree one circle maps. These families offer the rare advantage of being non-trivial but essentially solvable models for the phenomenon of mode-locking and the quasi-periodic transition to chaos. For instance, for these families, we obtain complete solutions to several questions still largely unanswered for families of smooth circle maps. Our main results describe (1) the sets of maps in these families having some prescribed rotation interval; (2) the boundaries between zero and positive topological entropy and between zero length and non-zero length rotation interval; and (3) the structure and bifurcations of the attractors in one of these families. We discuss the interpretation of these maps as low-order spline approximations to the classic ``sine-circle'' map and examine more generally the implications of our results for the case of smooth circle maps. We also mention a possible connection to recent experiments on models of a driven Josephson junction.

Adaptive Neural Models of Queuing and Timing in Fluent Action

Temporal structure in skilled, fluent action exists at several nested levels. At the largest scale considered here, short sequences of actions that are planned collectively in prefrontal cortex appear to be queued for performance by a cyclic competitive process that operates in concert with a parallel analog representation that implicitly specifies the relative priority of elements of the sequence. At an intermediate scale, single acts, like reaching to grasp, depend on coordinated scaling of the rates at which many muscles shorten or lengthen in parallel. To ensure success of acts such as catching an approaching ball, such parallel rate scaling, which appears to be one function of the basal ganglia, must be coupled to perceptual variables, such as time-to-contact. At a fine scale, within each act, desired rate scaling can be realized only if precisely timed muscle activations first accelerate and then decelerate the limbs, to ensure that muscle length changes do not under- or over-shoot the amounts needed for the precise acts. Each context of action may require a much different timed muscle activation pattern than similar contexts. Because context differences that require different treatment cannot be known in advance, a formidable adaptive engine-the cerebellum-is needed to amplify differences within, and continuosly search, a vast parallel signal flow, in order to discover contextual "leading indicators" of when to generate distinctive parallel patterns of analog signals. From some parts of the cerebellum, such signals controls muscles. But a recent model shows how the lateral cerebellum, such signals control muscles. But a recent model shows how the lateral cerebellum may serve the competitive queuing system (in frontal cortex) as a repository of quickly accessed long-term sequence memories. Thus different parts of the cerebellum may use the same adaptive engine system design to serve the lowest and the highest of the three levels of temporal structure treated. If so, no one-to-one mapping exists between levels of temporal structure and major parts of the brain. Finally, recent data cast doubt on network-delay models of cerebellar adaptive timing.

Reduced length of hospital stay in colorectal surgery after implementation of an enhanced recovery protocol.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) is a multimodal approach to perioperative care that combines a range of interventions to enable early mobilization and feeding after surgery. We investigated the feasibility, clinical effectiveness, and cost savings of an ERAS program at a major U. S. teaching hospital. METHODS: Data were collected from consecutive patients undergoing open or laparoscopic colorectal surgery during 2 time periods, before and after implementation of an ERAS protocol. Data collected included patient demographics, operative, and perioperative surgical and anesthesia data, need for analgesics, complications, inpatient medical costs, and 30-day readmission rates. RESULTS: There were 99 patients in the traditional care group, and 142 in the ERAS group. The median length of stay (LOS) was 5 days in the ERAS group compared with 7 days in the traditional group (P < 0.001). The reduction in LOS was significant for both open procedures (median 6 vs 7 days, P = 0.01), and laparoscopic procedures (4 vs 6 days, P < 0.0001). ERAS patients had fewer urinary tract infections (13% vs 24%, P = 0.03). Readmission rates were lower in ERAS patients (9.8% vs 20.2%, P = 0.02). DISCUSSION: Implementation of an enhanced recovery protocol for colorectal surgery at a tertiary medical center was associated with a significantly reduced LOS and incidence of urinary tract infection. This is consistent with that of other studies in the literature and suggests that enhanced recovery programs could be implemented successfully and should be considered in U.S. hospitals.

Is chronic asthma associated with shorter leukocyte telomere length at midlife?

RATIONALE: Asthma is prospectively associated with age-related chronic diseases and mortality, suggesting the hypothesis that asthma may relate to a general, multisystem phenotype of accelerated aging. OBJECTIVES: To test whether chronic asthma is associated with a proposed biomarker of accelerated aging, leukocyte telomere length. METHODS: Asthma was ascertained prospectively in the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study cohort (n = 1,037) at nine in-person assessments spanning ages 9-38 years. Leukocyte telomere length was measured at ages 26 and 38 years. Asthma was classified as life-course-persistent, childhood-onset not meeting criteria for persistence, and adolescent/adult-onset. We tested associations between asthma and leukocyte telomere length using regression models. We tested for confounding of asthma-leukocyte telomere length associations using covariate adjustment. We tested serum C-reactive protein and white blood cell counts as potential mediators of asthma-leukocyte telomere length associations. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Study members with life-course-persistent asthma had shorter leukocyte telomere length as compared with sex- and age-matched peers with no reported asthma. In contrast, leukocyte telomere length in study members with childhood-onset and adolescent/adult-onset asthma was not different from leukocyte telomere length in peers with no reported asthma. Adjustment for life histories of obesity and smoking did not change results. Study members with life-course-persistent asthma had elevated blood eosinophil counts. Blood eosinophil count mediated 29% of the life-course-persistent asthma-leukocyte telomere length association. CONCLUSIONS: Life-course-persistent asthma is related to a proposed biomarker of accelerated aging, possibly via systemic eosinophilic inflammation. Life histories of asthma can inform studies of aging.

Wind mixing, food availability and mortality of anchovy larvae Engraulis encrasicolus in the northern Adriatic Sea

A study was carried out in June/July 1996 in the River Po outflow in the northern Adriatic to investigate spawning of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and survival of larvae in relation to food availability and wind mixing. Hydrographic- and bongo net sampling was carried out on 2 grid surveys; one after a period of low winds and settled weather, and the other after an intervening period of strong winds, which resulted in a decrease in water column stratification. The spawning areas of anchovy and the larval distributions were associated with the river outflow plume (most clearly on the second survey grid, after the period of higher winds). Potential food particles for anchovy larvae, primarily copepod nauplii and copepodite stages, were also concentrated in the area influenced by the river outflow. Although there was a nearly 50% reduction in the mean water column abundance of potential food particles between the 2 survey grids, mostly due to a decline in abundance outside the immediate river plume area, there was no significant change in mortality of anchovy larvae between the 2 grids; the exponential decline in numbers of eggs and larvae to 10 mm in length being equivalent to overall mortality rates of 43.2%/d on the first survey and 44.7%/d on the second. The resilience of larval survival under potentially less favourable feeding conditions, following the period of wind mixing, was ascribed, in part, to the maintenance of local water column stratification by the superficial low salinity input from the River Po. This stratification in the immediate outflow area was associated with the presence of concentrated layers of potential food particles (typically >50 particles/L and 1.5 to 2.8 times the mean water column abundance) in the upper 10 m of the water column, coincident with peak numbers of anchovy larvae. However, since there was no evidence for lower larval survival in areas, less influenced by the immediate river outflow plume, a simple direct relationship between enhanced water column stability, improved feeding conditions and larval survival was not supported.

Addressing Bed Costs for the Elderly: A New Methodology for Modelling Patient Outcomes and Length of Stay

The proportion of elderly in the population has dramatically increased and will continue to do so for at least the next 50 years. Medical resources throughout the world are feeling the added strain of the increasing proportion of elderly in the population. The effective care of elderly patients in hospitals may be enhanced by accurately modelling the length of stay of the patients in hospital and the associated costs involved. This paper examines previously developed models for patient length of stay in hospital and describes the recently developed conditional phase-type distribution (C-Ph) to model patient duration of stay in relation to explanatory patient variables. The Clinics data set was used to demonstrate the C-Ph methodology. The resulting model highlighted a strong relationship between Barthel grade, patient outcome and length of stay showing various groups of patient behaviour. The patients who stay in hospital for a very long time are usually those that consume the largest amount of hospital resources. These have been identified as the patients whose resulting outcome is transfer. Overall, the majority of transfer patients spend a considerably longer period of time in hospital compared to patients who die or are discharged home. The C-Ph model has the potential for considering costs where different costs are attached to the various phases or subgroups of patients and the anticipated cost of care estimated in advance. It is hoped that such a method will lead to the successful identification of the most cost effective case-mix management of the hospital ward.

Strong configuration mixing among the fine-structure levels of Cl+

A large-scale configuration interaction (Cl) calculation using Program CIV3 of Hibbert is performed for the lowest 62 fine- structure levels of the singly charged chlorine ion. Our calculated energy levels agree very well with most of the NIST results and confirm the identification of the lowest P-1(o) as actually 3s(2)3p(3)(D-2(o))3d P-1(o) rather than the generally employed 3s3p(5) P-1(o) in measurements and calculations. Discrepancies in the energy positions of some symmetries are found and discussed. Some large oscillator strengths for allowed and intercombination transitions in both length and velocity gauges are presented. Their close agreement gives credence to the accuracy of our CI wavefunctions.

Turbulent diffusion and mixing in interstellar dark clouds with adsorption onto grains

This paper reports the results of models of dark cloud chemistry incorporating a depth dependent density distribution with diffusive mixing and adsorption onto grains. The model is based on the approach taken by Xie et al. (1995), with the addition of grain accretion effects. Without diffusion, the central regions of the cloud freeze out in less than 10(7) years. Freeze-out time is dependent on density, so the diffuse outer region of the cloud remains abundant in gas for about an order of magnitude longer. We find that fairly small amounts of diffusive mixing can delay freeze-out at the centre of the model cloud for a time up to an order of magnitude greater than without diffusion, due to material diffusing inward from the edges of the cloud. The gas-phase lifetime of the cloud core can thus be increased by up to an order of magnitude or more by this process. We have run three different grain models with various diffusion coefficients to investigate the effects of changing the sticking parameters.

Hybridization of a class of "second order" models of traffic flow

Despite the simultaneous progress of traffic modelling both on the macroscopic and microscopic front, recent works [E. Bourrel, J.B. Lessort, Mixing micro and macro representation of traffic flow: a hybrid model based on the LWR theory, Transport. Res. Rec. 1852 (2003) 193–200; D. Helbing, M. Treiber, Critical discussion of “synchronized flow”, Coop. Transport. Dyn. 1 (2002) 2.1–2.24; A. Hennecke, M. Treiber, D. Helbing, Macroscopic simulations of open systems and micro–macro link, in: D. Helbing, H.J. Herrmann, M. Schreckenberg, D.E. Wolf (Eds.), Traffic and Granular Flow ’99, Springer, Berlin, 2000, pp. 383–388] highlighted that one of the most promising way to simulate efficiently traffic flow on large road networks is a clever combination of both traffic representations: the hybrid modelling. Our focus in this paper is to propose two hybrid models for which the macroscopic (resp. mesoscopic) part is based on a class of second order model [A. Aw, M. Rascle, Resurection of second order models of traffic flow?, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 60 (2000) 916–938] whereas the microscopic part is a Follow-the Leader type model [D.C. Gazis, R. Herman, R.W. Rothery, Nonlinear follow-the-leader models of traffic flow, Oper. Res. 9 (1961) 545–567; R. Herman, I. Prigogine, Kinetic Theory of Vehicular Traffic, American Elsevier, New York, 1971]. For the first hybrid model, we define precisely the translation of boundary conditions at interfaces and for the second one we explain the synchronization processes. Furthermore, through some numerical simulations we show that the waves propagation is not disturbed and the mass is accurately conserved when passing from one traffic representation to another.

Chemical evolution of protoplanetary disks - the effects of viscous accretion, turbulent mixing and disk winds

We calculate the chemical evolution of protoplanetary disks considering radial viscous accretion, vertical turbulent mixing, and vertical disk winds. We study the effects on the disk chemical structure when different models for the formation of molecular hydrogen on dust grains are adopted. Our gas-phase chemistry is extracted from the UMIST Database for Astrochemistry (Rate06) to which we have added detailed gas-grain interactions. We use our chemical model results to generate synthetic near- and mid-infrared local thermodynamic equilibrium line emission spectra and compare these with recent Spitzer observations. Our results show that if H2 formation on warm grains is taken into consideration, the H2O and OH abundances in the disk surface increase significantly. We find that the radial accretion flow strongly influences the molecular abundances, with those in the cold midplane layers particularly affected. On the other hand, we show that diffusive turbulent mixing affects the disk chemistry in the warm molecular layers, influencing the line emission from the disk and subsequently improving agreement with observations. We find that NH3, CH3OH, C2H2, and sulfur-containing species are greatly enhanced by the inclusion of turbulent mixing. We demonstrate that disk winds potentially affect the disk chemistry and the resulting molecular line emission in a manner similar to that found when mixing is included.

Assessing length of stay and associated characteristics of geriatric patients in Northern Ireland

The effective provision of care for the elderly is becoming increasingly more difficult. This is due to the rising proportion of elderly in the population, increasing demands placed on the health services and the financial strain placed on an already stretched economy. The research presented in this paper uses three different models to represent the length of stay distribution of geriatric patients admitted to one of the six key acute hospitals in Northern Ireland and various patient characteristics associated with their respective length of stay. The accurate modelling of bed usage within wards would enable hospital managers to prepare patient discharge packages and rehabilitation services in advance. The models presented within the paper include a Cox proportional hazards model, a Bayesian network with a discrete variable to represent length of stay and a special conditional phase-type model (C-Ph) with a connecting outcome node. This research demonstrates the new efficient fitting algorithm employed for Coxian phase-type distributions while updating C-Ph models for recent elderly patient data.

Τesting models for the beginnings of the Aurignacian and the advent of figurative art and music: The radiocarbon chronology of Geißenklösterle

The German site of Geißenklösterle is crucial to debates concerning the European Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition and the origins of the Aurignacian in Europe. Previous dates from the site are
central to an important hypothesis, the Kulturpumpe model, which posits that the Swabian Jura was an area where crucial behavioural developments took place and then spread to other parts of Europe. The previous chronology (critical to the model), is based mainly on radiocarbon dating, but remains poorly constrained due to the dating resolution and the variability of dates. The cause of these problems is disputed, but two principal explanations have been proposed: a) larger than expected variations in the production of atmospheric radiocarbon, and b) taphonomic in?uences in the site mixing the bones that were dated into different parts of the site. We reinvestigate the chronology using a new series of radiocarbon determinations obtained from the Mousterian, Aurignacian and Gravettian levels. The results strongly imply that the previous dates were affected by insuf?cient decontamination of the bone collagen prior to dating. Using an ultra?ltration protocol the chronometric picture becomes much clearer. Comparison of the results against other recently dated sites in other parts of Europe suggests the Early Aurignacian levels are earlier than other sites in the south of France and Italy, but not as early as recently dated sites which suggest a pre-Aurignacian dispersal of modern humans to Italy byw45000 cal BP. They are consistent with the importance of the Danube Corridor as a key route for the movement of people and ideas. The new dates fail to refute the Kulturpumpe model and suggest that Swabian Jura is a region that contributed signi?cantly to the evolution of symbolic behaviour as indicated by early evidence for ?gurative art, music and mythical imagery. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the nudging terms at open boundaries in regional ocean models

For open boundary conditions (OBCs) in regional models, a nudging term added to radiative and/or advective conditions during the wave or flow propagation outward from the model domain of interest is widely used, to prevent the predicted boundary values from evolving to become quite different from the external data, especially for a long-term integration. However, nudging time scales are basically unknown, leading to many empirical selections. In this paper, a method for objectively estimating nudging time scales during outward propagation is proposed, by using internal model dynamics near the boundary. We tested this method and other several commonly used OBCs for cases of both an idealized model domain and a realistic configuration, and model results demonstrated that the proposed method improves the model solutions. Many similarities are found between the nudging and mixing time scales, in magnitude, spatial and temporal variations, since the nudging mainly replaces the effect of the mixing terms in this study. However, the mixing time scale is not an intrinsic property of the nudging term because in other studies the nudging term might replace terms other than the mixing terms and, thus, should reflect other characteristic time scales.

Experimental Investigation of Transient Saltwater Intrusion in Heterogeneous Porous Media

A 2D sandbox style experiment was developed to compare the results of numerical modelling to physical testing for saltwater intrusion in homogeneous and heterogeneous aquifers. The sandbox consisted of a thin central viewing chamber filled with glass beads of varying diameters (780μm, 1090μm and 1325μm) under fully saturated conditions. Dyed saltwater (SW) was introduced at the side boundary and a head difference imposed across the porous media. Images of the SW wedge were recorded at intervals in order to assess the suitability of the numerical models predictions of transient SW intrusion. Numerical modelling of the experimental cases were simulated using SUTRA. Two main parameters were chosen to express the condition of the intruding SW wedge at each recorded time step; the toe penetration length (TL) and the width of the mixing zone (WMZ). The WMZ was larger under transient conditions in the heterogeneous case, while the TL was longer for the homogeneous case. The increased variability in the flow field fo the heterogeneous case resulted in increased dispersion, and thus, increased WMZ.

Gaussian pulse mixing by stacked semiconductor layers

The nonlinear scattering of two Gaussian pulses with different central frequencies incident at slant angles on the periodic stack of binary semiconductor layers has been modelled in the self-consistent problem formulation taking into account the dynamics of charges. The effects of the pump pulse length and central frequencies, and the stack physical and geometrical parameters on the properties of the emitted combinatorial frequency waveforms are analysed and discussed.