Modeling the impact of potential vaccines on epidemics of sexually transmitted chlamydia trachomatis infection

Background. We investigated the likely impact of vaccines on the prevalence of and morbidity due to Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) infections in heterosexual populations. Methods.An individual‐based mathematical model of chlamydia transmission was developed and linked to the infection course in chlamydia‐infected individuals. The model describes the impact of a vaccine through its effect on the chlamydial load required to infect susceptible individuals (the “critical load”), the load in infected individuals, and their subsequent infectiousness. The model was calibrated using behavioral, biological, and clinical data. Results.A fully protective chlamydia vaccine administered before sexual debut can theoretically eliminate chlamydia epidemics within 20 years. Partially effective vaccines can still greatly reduce the incidence of chlamydia infection. Vaccines should aim primarily to increase the critical load in susceptible individuals and secondarily to decrease the peak load and/or the duration of infection in vaccinated individuals who become infected. Vaccinating both sexes has a beneficial impact on chlamydia‐related morbidity, but targeting women is more effective than targeting men. Conclusions.Our findings can be used in laboratory settings to evaluate vaccine candidates in animal models, by regulatory bodies in the promotion of candidates for clinical trials, and by public health authorities in deciding on optimal intervention strategies.

The relationship between communication and team performance : testing moderators and identifying communication profiles in established work teams

Communication is one team process factor that has received considerable research attention in the team literature. This literature provides equivocal evidence regarding the role of communication in team performance and yet, does not provide any evidence for when communication becomes important for team performance. This research program sought to address this evidence gap by a) testing task complexity and team member diversity (race diversity, gender diversity and work value diversity) as moderators of the team communication — performance relationship; and b) testing a team communication — performance model using established teams across two different task types. The functional perspective was used as the theoretical framework for operationalizing team communication activity. The research program utilised a quasi-experimental research design with participants from a large multi-national information technology company whose Head Office was based in Sydney, Australia. Participants voluntarily completed two team building exercises (a decision making and production task), and completed two online questionnaires. In total, data were collected from 1039 individuals who constituted 203 work teams. Analysis of the data revealed a small number of significant moderation effects, not all in the expected direction. However, an interesting and unexpected finding also emerged from Study One. Large and significant correlations between communication activity ratings were found across tasks, but not within tasks. This finding suggested that teams were displaying very similar profiles of communication on each task, despite the tasks having different communication requirements. Given this finding, Study Two sought to a) determine the relative importance of task versus team effects in explaining variance in team communication measures for established teams; b) determine if established teams had reliable and discernable team communication profiles and if so, c) investigate whether team communication profiles related to task performance. Multi-level modeling and repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that task type did not have an effect on team communication ratings. However, teams accounted for 24% of the total variance in communication measures. Through cluster analysis, five reliable and distinct team communication profiles were identified. Consistent with the findings of the multi-level analysis and repeated measures ANOVA, teams’ profiles were virtually identical across the decision making and production tasks. A relationship between communication profile and performance was identified for the production task, although not for the decision making task. This research responds to calls in the literature for a better understanding of when communication becomes important for team performance. The moderators tested in this research were not found to have a substantive or reliable effect on the relationship between communication and performance. However, the consistency in team communication activity suggests that established teams can be characterized by their communication profiles and further, that these communication profiles may have implications for team performance. The findings of this research provide theoretical support for the functional perspective in terms of the communication – performance relationship and further support the team development literature as an explanation for the stability in team communication profiles. This research can also assist organizations to better understand the specific types of communication activity and profiles of communication that could offer teams a performance advantage.

Modeling corneal surfaces with rational functions for high-speed videokeratoscopy data compression

High-speed videokeratoscopy is an emerging technique that enables study of the corneal surface and tear-film dynamics. Unlike its static predecessor, this new technique results in a very large amount of digital data for which storage needs become significant. We aimed to design a compression technique that would use mathematical functions to parsimoniously fit corneal surface data with a minimum number of coefficients. Since the Zernike polynomial functions that have been traditionally used for modeling corneal surfaces may not necessarily correctly represent given corneal surface data in terms of its optical performance, we introduced the concept of Zernike polynomial-based rational functions. Modeling optimality criteria were employed in terms of both the rms surface error as well as the point spread function cross-correlation. The parameters of approximations were estimated using a nonlinear least-squares procedure based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. A large number of retrospective videokeratoscopic measurements were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed rational-function-based modeling approach. The results indicate that the rational functions almost always outperform the traditional Zernike polynomial approximations with the same number of coefficients.

Modeling videokeratoscopic height data with spherical harmonics

Purpose: All currently considered parametric models used for decomposing videokeratoscopy height data are viewercentered and hence describe what the operator sees rather than what the surface is. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the applicability of an object-centered representation to modeling of corneal surfaces. Methods: A three-dimensional surface decomposition into a series of spherical harmonics is considered and compared with the traditional Zernike polynomial expansion for a range of videokeratoscopic height data. Results: Spherical harmonic decomposition led to significantly better fits to corneal surfaces (in terms of the root mean square error values) than the corresponding Zernike polynomial expansions with the same number of coefficients, for all considered corneal surfaces, corneal diameters, and model orders. Conclusions: Spherical harmonic decomposition is a viable alternative to Zernike polynomial decomposition. It achieves better fits to videokeratoscopic height data and has the advantage of an object-centered representation that could be particularly suited to the analysis of multiple corneal measurements.

Theories of Mathematics Education : Seeking New Frontiers

This inaugural book in the new series Advances in Mathematics Education is the most up to date, comprehensive and avant garde treatment of Theories of Mathematics Education which use two highly acclaimed ZDM special issues on theories of mathematics education (issue 6/2005 and issue 1/2006), as a point of departure. Historically grounded in the Theories of Mathematics Education (TME group) revived by the book editors at the 29th Annual PME meeting in Melbourne and using the unique style of preface-chapter-commentary, this volume consist of contributions from leading thinkers in mathematics education who have worked on theory building. This book is as much summative and synthetic as well as forward-looking by highlighting theories from psychology, philosophy and social sciences that continue to influence theory building. In addition a significant portion of the book includes newer developments in areas within mathematics education such as complexity theory, neurosciences, modeling, critical theory, feminist theory, social justice theory and networking theories. The 19 parts, 17 prefaces and 23 commentaries synergize the efforts of over 50 contributing authors scattered across the globe that are active in the ongoing work on theory development in mathematics education.

The measurement of perceived ontological deficiencies of conceptual modeling grammars

Over recent years, many scholars have studied the conceptual modeling of information systems based on a theory of ontological expressiveness. This theory offers four constructs that inform properties of modeling grammars in the form of ontological deficiencies, and their implications for development and use of conceptual modeling in IS practice. In this paper we report on the development of a valid and reliable instrument for measuring the perceptions that individuals have of the ontological deficiencies of conceptual modeling grammars. We describe a multi-stage approach for instrument development that incorporates feedback from expert and user panels. We also report on a field test of the instrument with 590 modeling practitioners. We further study how different levels of modeling experience influence user perceptions of ontological deficiencies of modeling grammars. We provide implications for practice and future research.

Modeling corneal surfaces with three-dimensional basis functions

Purpose: To ascertain the effectiveness of object-centered three-dimensional representations for the modeling of corneal surfaces. Methods: Three-dimensional (3D) surface decomposition into series of basis functions including: (i) spherical harmonics, (ii) hemispherical harmonics, and (iii) 3D Zernike polynomials were considered and compared to the traditional viewer-centered representation of two-dimensional (2D) Zernike polynomial expansion for a range of retrospective videokeratoscopic height data from three clinical groups. The data were collected using the Medmont E300 videokeratoscope. The groups included 10 normal corneas with corneal astigmatism less than −0.75 D, 10 astigmatic corneas with corneal astigmatism between −1.07 D and 3.34 D (Mean = −1.83 D, SD = ±0.75 D), and 10 keratoconic corneas. Only data from the right eyes of the subjects were considered. Results: All object-centered decompositions led to significantly better fits to corneal surfaces (in terms of the RMS error values) than the corresponding 2D Zernike polynomial expansions with the same number of coefficients, for all considered corneal surfaces, corneal diameters (2, 4, 6, and 8 mm), and model orders (4th to 10th radial orders) The best results (smallest RMS fit error) were obtained with spherical harmonics decomposition which lead to about 22% reduction in the RMS fit error, as compared to the traditional 2D Zernike polynomials. Hemispherical harmonics and the 3D Zernike polynomials reduced the RMS fit error by about 15% and 12%, respectively. Larger reduction in RMS fit error was achieved for smaller corneral diameters and lower order fits. Conclusions: Object-centered 3D decompositions provide viable alternatives to traditional viewer-centered 2D Zernike polynomial expansion of a corneal surface. They achieve better fits to videokeratoscopic height data and could be particularly suited to the analysis of multiple corneal measurements, where there can be slight variations in the position of the cornea from one map acquisition to the next.

Complexity and learning behaviors in product innovation

Successful product innovation and the ability of companies to continuously improve their innovation processes are rapidly becoming essential requirements for competitive advantage and long-term growth in both manufacturing and service industries. It is now recognized that companies must develop innovation capabilities across all stages of the product development, manufacture, and distribution cycle. These Continuous Product Innovation (CPI) capabilities are closely associated with a company’s knowledge management systems and processes. Companies must develop mechanisms to continuously improve these capabilities over time. Using results of an international survey on CPI practices, sets of companies are identified by similarities in specific contingencies related to their complexity of product, process, technological, and customer interface. Differences between the learning behaviors found present in the company groups and in the levers used to develop and support these behaviors are identified and discussed. This paper also discusses appropriate mechanisms for firms with similar complexities, and some approaches they can use to improve their organizational learning and product innovation.

How environmental and organizational complexity affects opportunity recognition and exploitation in development projects

Principal Topic: Project structures are often created by entrepreneurs and large corporate organizations to develop new products. Since new product development projects (NPDP) are more often situated within a larger organization, intrapreneurship or corporate entrepreneurship plays an important role in bringing these projects to fruition. Since NPDP often involves the development of a new product using immature technology, we describe development of an immature technology. The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) F-35 aircraft is being developed by the U.S. Department of Defense and eight allied nations. In 2001 Lockheed Martin won a $19 billion contract to develop an affordable, stealthy and supersonic all-weather strike fighter designed to replace a wide range of aging fighter aircraft. In this research we define a complex project as one that demonstrates a number of sources of uncertainty to a degree, or level of severity, that makes it extremely difficult to predict project outcomes, to control or manage project (Remington & Zolin, Forthcoming). Project complexity has been conceptualized by Remington and Pollock (2007) in terms of four major sources of complexity; temporal, directional, structural and technological complexity (See Figure 1). Temporal complexity exists when projects experience significant environmental change outside the direct influence or control of the project. The Global Economic Crisis of 2008 - 2009 is a good example of the type of environmental change that can make a project complex as, for example in the JSF project, where project managers attempt to respond to changes in interest rates, international currency exchange rates and commodity prices etc. Directional complexity exists in a project where stakeholders' goals are unclear or undefined, where progress is hindered by unknown political agendas, or where stakeholders disagree or misunderstand project goals. In the JSF project all the services and all non countries have to agree to the specifications of the three variants of the aircraft; Conventional Take Off and Landing (CTOL), Short Take Off/Vertical Landing (STOVL) and the Carrier Variant (CV). Because the Navy requires a plane that can take off and land on an aircraft carrier, that required a special variant of the aircraft design, adding complexity to the project. Technical complexity occurs in a project using technology that is immature or where design characteristics are unknown or untried. Developing a plane that can take off on a very short runway and land vertically created may highly interdependent technological challenges to correctly locate, direct and balance the lift fans, modulate the airflow and provide equivalent amount of thrust from the downward vectored rear exhaust to lift the aircraft and at the same time control engine temperatures. These technological challenges make costing and scheduling equally challenging. Structural complexity in a project comes from the sheer numbers of elements such as the number of people, teams or organizations involved, ambiguity regarding the elements, and the massive degree of interconnectedness between them. While Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor, they are assisted in major aspects of the JSF development by Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, Pratt & Whitney and GE/Rolls-Royce Fighter Engineer Team and innumerable subcontractors. In addition to identifying opportunities to achieve project goals, complex projects also need to identify and exploit opportunities to increase agility in response to changing stakeholder demands or to reduce project risks. Complexity Leadership Theory contends that in complex environments adaptive and enabling leadership are needed (Uhl-Bien, Marion and McKelvey, 2007). Adaptive leadership facilitates creativity, learning and adaptability, while enabling leadership handles the conflicts that inevitably arise between adaptive leadership and traditional administrative leadership (Uhl-Bien and Marion, 2007). Hence, adaptive leadership involves the recognition and opportunities to adapt, while and enabling leadership involves the exploitation of these opportunities. Our research questions revolve around the type or source of complexity and its relationship to opportunity recognition and exploitation. For example, is it only external environmental complexity that creates the need for the entrepreneurial behaviours, such as opportunity recognition and opportunity exploitation? Do the internal dimensions of project complexity, such as technological and structural complexity, also create the need for opportunity recognition and opportunity exploitation? The Kropp, Zolin and Lindsay model (2009) describes a relationship between entrepreneurial orientation (EO), opportunity recognition (OR), and opportunity exploitation (OX) in complex projects, with environmental and organizational contextual variables as moderators. We extend their model by defining the affects of external complexity and internal complexity on OR and OX. ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: When the environment complex EO is more likely to result in OR because project members will be actively looking for solutions to problems created by environmental change. But in projects that are technologically or structurally complex project leaders and members may try to make the minimum changes possible to reduce the risk of creating new problems due to delays or schedule changes. In projects with environmental or technological complexity project leaders who encourage the innovativeness dimension of EO will increase OR in complex projects. But projects with technical or structural complexity innovativeness will not necessarily result in the recognition and exploitation of opportunities due to the over-riding importance of maintaining stability in the highly intricate and interconnected project structure. We propose that in projects with environmental complexity creating the need for change and innovation project leaders, who are willing to accept and manage risk, are more likely to identify opportunities to increase project effectiveness and efficiency. In contrast in projects with internal complexity a much higher willingness to accept risk will be necessary to trigger opportunity recognition. In structurally complex projects we predict it will be less likely to find a relationship between risk taking and OP. When the environment is complex, and a project has autonomy, they will be motivated to execute opportunities to improve the project's performance. In contrast, when the project has high internal complexity, they will be more cautious in execution. When a project experiences high competitive aggressiveness and their environment is complex, project leaders will be motivated to execute opportunities to improve the project's performance. In contrast, when the project has high internal complexity, they will be more cautious in execution. This paper reports the first stage of a three year study into the behaviours of managers, leaders and team members of complex projects. We conduct a qualitative study involving a Group Discussion with experienced project leaders. The objective is to determine how leaders of large and potentially complex projects perceive that external and internal complexity will influence the affects of EO on OR. ---------- Results and Implications: These results will help identify and distinguish the impact of external and internal complexity on entrepreneurial behaviours in NPDP. Project managers will be better able to quickly decide how and when to respond to changes in the environment and internal project events.

Collaborative business process modeling using 3D virtual environments

Process modeling is a complex organizational task that requires many iterations and communication between the business analysts and the domain specialists involved in the process modeling. The challenge of process modeling is exacerbated, when the process of modeling has to be performed in a cross-organizational, distributed environment. Some systems have been developed to support collaborative process modeling, all of which use traditional 2D interfaces. We present an environment for collaborative process modeling, using 3D virtual environment technology. We make use of avatar instantiations of user ego centres, to allow for the spatial embodiment of the user with reference to the process model. We describe an innovative prototype collaborative process modeling approach, implemented as a modeling environment in Second Life. This approach leverages the use of virtual environments to provide user context for editing and collaborative exercises. We present a positive preliminary report on a case study, in which a test group modelled a business process using the system in Second Life.

On the cognitive effectiveness of routing symbols in process modeling languages

Process models provide visual support for analyzing and improving complex organizational processes. In this paper, we discuss differences of process modeling languages using cognitive effectiveness considerations, to make statements about the ease of use and quality of user experience. Aspects of cognitive effectiveness are of importance for learning a modeling language, creating models, and understanding models. We identify the criteria representational clarity, perceptual discriminability, perceptual immediacy, visual expressiveness, and graphic parsimony to compare and assess the cognitive effectiveness of different modeling languages. We apply these criteria in an analysis of the routing elements of UML Activity Diagrams, YAWL, BPMN, and EPCs, to uncover their relative strengths and weaknesses from a quality of user experience perspective. We draw conclusions that are relevant to the usability of these languages in business process modeling projects.