Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. R��sum�� fran��ais: Dans cette th��se, nous ��tudions l'utilisation de march��s de pr��dictions pour l'��valuation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous int��ressons plus particuli��rement aux capacit��s des march��s de pr��dictions �� ��valuer des probl��matiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et �� leur efficacit�� par rapport �� des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, d��veloppant it��rativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les ��valuant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que th��oriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montr�� que les march��s de pr��dictions ��taient adapt��s pour correctement appr��cier des probl��matiques complexes. Nous avons ��galement d��velopp�� une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces march��s dans des contextes d'��valuation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montr�� que ces march��s pouvaient r��soudre une partie des probl��mes li��s �� la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et d��veloppement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les r��sultats d'une m��thode de d��cision multi-crit��re et d'un march�� de pr��diction, nous avons montr�� que ces derniers ��taient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des r��sultats semblables. Nous proposons ��galement un cadre de comparaison des m��thodes d'��valuation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des march��s de pr��diction et devrait permettre d'acc��l��rer leur adoption par les entreprises.

Essays on the measurement of school efficiency

Measuring school efficiency is a challenging task. First, a performance measurement technique has to be selected. Within Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), one such technique, alternative models have been developed in order to deal with environmental variables. The majority of these models lead to diverging results. Second, the choice of input and output variables to be included in the efficiency analysis is often dictated by data availability. The choice of the variables remains an issue even when data is available. As a result, the choice of technique, model and variables is probably, and ultimately, a political judgement. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods can help the decision makers to select the most suitable model. The number of selection criteria should remain parsimonious and not be oriented towards the results of the models in order to avoid opportunistic behaviour. The selection criteria should also be backed by the literature or by an expert group. Once the most suitable model is identified, the principle of permanence of methods should be applied in order to avoid a change of practices over time. Within DEA, the two-stage model developed by Ray (1991) is the most convincing model which allows for an environmental adjustment. In this model, an efficiency analysis is conducted with DEA followed by an econometric analysis to explain the efficiency scores. An environmental variable of particular interest, tested in this thesis, consists of the fact that operations are held, for certain schools, on multiple sites. Results show that the fact of being located on more than one site has a negative influence on efficiency. A likely way to solve this negative influence would consist of improving the use of ICT in school management and teaching. Planning new schools should also consider the advantages of being located on a unique site, which allows reaching a critical size in terms of pupils and teachers. The fact that underprivileged pupils perform worse than privileged pupils has been public knowledge since Coleman et al. (1966). As a result, underprivileged pupils have a negative influence on school efficiency. This is confirmed by this thesis for the first time in Switzerland. Several countries have developed priority education policies in order to compensate for the negative impact of disadvantaged socioeconomic status on school performance. These policies have failed. As a result, other actions need to be taken. In order to define these actions, one has to identify the social-class differences which explain why disadvantaged children underperform. Childrearing and literary practices, health characteristics, housing stability and economic security influence pupil achievement. Rather than allocating more resources to schools, policymakers should therefore focus on related social policies. For instance, they could define pre-school, family, health, housing and benefits policies in order to improve the conditions for disadvantaged children.

A design science approach to support the assessment of disruptive technology : the Swiss mobile payment case

Abstract In this thesis we present the design of a systematic integrated computer-based approach for detecting potential disruptions from an industry perspective. Following the design science paradigm, we iteratively develop several multi-actor multi-criteria artifacts dedicated to environment scanning. The contributions of this thesis are both theoretical and practical. We demonstrate the successful use of multi-criteria decision-making methods for technology foresight. Furthermore, we illustrate the design of our artifacts using build and-evaluate loops supported with a field study of the Swiss mobile payment industry. To increase the relevance of this study, we systematically interview key Swiss experts for each design iteration. As a result, our research provides a realistic picture of the current situation in the Swiss mobile payment market and reveals previously undiscovered weak signals for future trends. Finally, we suggest a generic design process for environment scanning.

Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.

Evaluation g��riatrique des patients ag��s candidats a un remplacement valvulaire aortique percutan�� [Geriatric assessment in old patients candidate to transcatheter aortic implantation].

Aortic stenosis mostly occurs among old-old patients. Once symptoms appear, prognosis is guarded, with 2-year mortality as high as 50%. Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI) is a new therapeutic option in patients at very high surgical risk, who are mostly older persons. However, TAVI is associated with some complications, and patient selection remains a challenge. Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) identifies patients with medical and functional problems likely to affect the TAVI post-operative course. Collaboration between cardiologists and geriatricians will likely become a standard approach to enhance the assessment of these frail patients and identify those most likely to benefit from TAVI.

Setting priorities in clinical and health services research: Properties of an adapted and updated method

Objectives: The objectives of this study is to review the set of criteria of the Institute of Medicine (IOM) for priority-setting in research with addition of new criteria if necessary, and to develop and evaluate the reliability and validity of the final priority score. Methods: Based on the evaluation of 199 research topics, forty-five experts identified additional criteria for priority-setting, rated their relevance, and ranked and weighted them in a three-round modified Delphi technique. A final priority score was developed and evaluated. Internal consistency, test���retest and inter-rater reliability were assessed. Correlation with experts��� overall qualitative topic ratings were assessed as an approximation to validity. Results: All seven original IOM criteria were considered relevant and two new criteria were added (���potential for translation into practice���, and ���need for knowledge���). Final ranks and relative weights differed from those of the original IOM criteria: ���research impact on health outcomes��� was considered the most important criterion (4.23), as opposed to ���burden of disease��� (3.92). Cronbach���s alpha (0.75) and test���retest stability (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.66) for the final set of criteria were acceptable. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for overall assessment of priority was 0.66. Conclusions: A reliable instrument for prioritizing topics in clinical and health services research has been developed. Further evaluation of its validity and impact on selecting research topics is required

Advanced chemometric methods: Applicability on industrial data

Recent years have produced great advances in the instrumentation technology. The amount of available data has been increasing due to the simplicity, speed and accuracy of current spectroscopic instruments. Most of these data are, however, meaningless without a proper analysis. This has been one of the reasons for the overgrowing success of multivariate handling of such data. Industrial data is commonly not designed data; in other words, there is no exact experimental design, but rather the data have been collected as a routine procedure during an industrial process. This makes certain demands on the multivariate modeling, as the selection of samples and variables can have an enormous effect. Common approaches in the modeling of industrial data are PCA (principal component analysis) and PLS (projection to latent structures or partial least squares) but there are also other methods that should be considered. The more advanced methods include multi block modeling and nonlinear modeling. In this thesis it is shown that the results of data analysis vary according to the modeling approach used, thus making the selection of the modeling approach dependent on the purpose of the model. If the model is intended to provide accurate predictions, the approach should be different than in the case where the purpose of modeling is mostly to obtain information about the variables and the process. For industrial applicability it is essential that the methods are robust and sufficiently simple to apply. In this way the methods and the results can be compared and an approach selected that is suitable for the intended purpose. Differences in data analysis methods are compared with data from different fields of industry in this thesis. In the first two papers, the multi block method is considered for data originating from the oil and fertilizer industries. The results are compared to those from PLS and priority PLS. The third paper considers applicability of multivariate models to process control for a reactive crystallization process. In the fourth paper, nonlinear modeling is examined with a data set from the oil industry. The response has a nonlinear relation to the descriptor matrix, and the results are compared between linear modeling, polynomial PLS and nonlinear modeling using nonlinear score vectors.

Toimittaja-arvioinnin kehitt��minen: Case Nokian Renkaat Oyj

Tutkimuksen aiheena on toimittaja-arvioinnin kehitt��minen. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kehitt���� Nokian Renkaat Oyj:n k��ytt����n tarkoituksenmukainen menetelm�� toimittaja-arviointiin. Tutkimuksessa k��sitell����n toimittaja-arvioinnin roolia hankintatoimessa, keskeisi�� arviointikriteerej��, arviointimenetelmi�� sek�� arvioinnin kehitt��misess�� huomioitavia tekij��it��. Empiirisess�� osiossa m����ritet����n kohdeyrityksen toimittajien arviointikriteerit, luokitellaan toimittajat sek�� kehitet����n menetelm�� toimittaja-arviointiin. Tutkimuksen lopputuloksena kehitettiin ty��kalu toimittaja-arviointiin kohdeyrityksen k��ytt����n. Ty��kalu koostuu kahdesta erillisest�� osasta, jotka ovat toteutuneen suorituskyvyn arviointi sek�� toimittaja-auditointi. Auditointia varten laadittiin kysymyskaavake. Molemmat arvioinnin osa-alueet sis��lt��v��t painotetun pisteytyksen.

Computational Evaluation of Print Unevenness According to Human Vision

Print quality and the printability of paper are very important attributes when modern printing applications are considered. In prints containing images, high print quality is a basic requirement. Tone unevenness and non uniform glossiness of printed products are the most disturbing factors influencing overall print quality. These defects are caused by non ideal interactions of paper, ink and printing devices in high speed printing processes. Since print quality is a perceptive characteristic, the measurement of unevenness according to human vision is a significant problem. In this thesis, the mottling phenomenon is studied. Mottling is a printing defect characterized by a spotty, non uniform appearance in solid printed areas. Print mottle is usually the result of uneven ink lay down or non uniform ink absorption across the paper surface, especially visible in mid tone imagery or areas of uniform color, such as solids and continuous tone screen builds. By using existing knowledge on visual perception and known methods to quantify print tone variation, a new method for print unevenness evaluation is introduced. The method is compared to previous results in the field and is supported by psychometric experiments. Pilot studies are made to estimate the effect of optical paper characteristics prior to printing, on the unevenness of the printed area after printing. Instrumental methods for print unevenness evaluation have been compared and the results of the comparison indicate that the proposed method produces better results in terms of visual evaluation correspondence. The method has been successfully implemented as ail industrial application and is proved to be a reliable substitute to visual expertise.

International research partnerships: establishing partner selection criteria in the university-university context

The main objective of the study was to identify and evaluate criteria for international partner selection in university-university context. This study attempted at promoting better understanding of how universities should proceed in selecting partners for producing joint research publications. Thus, the aim of the study was to gain an understanding of how research collaborations can be developed and how partners can be selected. The choice of a right partner has been identified as a precondition for partnership success. In international research collaborations partnering scientists with different skills and backgrounds bring together complementary knowledge into research projects, which in most cases results in a higher quality output. Therefore, prior to selecting a partner, the set of criteria should be established. This research examined twelve Russian universities with the status of national research university as potential partners for Lappeenranta University of Technology, and selected the most appropriate universities based on established set of criteria. Potential partners��� evaluation was done using secondary sources by tracking partners��� academic success during the period 2005 ��� 2010. Based on established criteria, the study calculated the partnership index for each university. The results of the research reveal that among twelve examined universities there are four potential partners who have been rather active in publishing scientific articles during 2005 ��� 2010.

Estimating the most important criteria for hatching eggs as function of broiler breeders age

This research aimed to compare two female broiler breeder ages during the incubation period regarding management using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method (AHP). This method is characterized by the possibility of analyzing a multicriteria problem and assists a decision making. This study was carried out on a commercial hatchery located in S��o Paulo, Brazil. Two ages of broiler breeder (42 and 56 weeks) were compared relative to production rate. Production index data were the same in both ages and were submitted to multicriteria decision analysis using the AHP method. The results indicate that broiler breeders of 42 weeks presented better performance than those of 56 week-old. The setter phase (incubation) is more critical than the hatcher. The AHP method was efficient for this analysis and can serve as a methodological basis for future studies to improve the hatchability of broilers eggs.

Multi-source ingestion of publisher articles - The SCOAP3 repository experience

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Suitability of LiDAR technology for forest inventory in Russia

LiDAR is an advanced remote sensing technology with many applications, including forest inventory. The most common type is ALS (airborne laser scanning). The method is successfully utilized in many developed markets, where it is replacing traditional forest inventory methods. However, it is innovative for Russian market, where traditional field inventory dominates. ArboLiDAR is a forest inventory solution that engages LiDAR, color infrared imagery, GPS ground control plots and field sample plots, developed by Arbonaut Ltd. This study is an industrial market research for LiDAR technology in Russia focused on customer needs. Russian forestry market is very attractive, because of large growing stock volumes. It underwent drastic changes in 2006, but it is still in transitional stage. There are several types of forest inventory, both with public and private funding. Private forestry enterprises basically need forest inventory in two cases ��� while making coupe demarcation before timber harvesting and as a part of forest management planning, that is supposed to be done every ten years on the whole leased territory. The study covered 14 companies in total that include private forestry companies with timber harvesting activities, private forest inventory providers, state subordinate companies and forestry software developer. The research strategy is multiple case studies with semi-structured interviews as the main data collection technique. The study focuses on North-West Russia, as it is the most developed Russian region in forestry. The research applies the Voice of the Customer (VOC) concept to elicit customer needs of Russian forestry actors and discovers how these needs are met. It studies forest inventory methods currently applied in Russia and proposes the model of method comparison, based on Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach, mainly on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Required product attributes are classified in accordance with Kano model. The answer about suitability of LiDAR technology is ambiguous, since many details should be taken into account.

Automatic Structure Generation using Genetic Programming and Fractal Geometry

Three dimensional model design is a well-known and studied field, with numerous real-world applications. However, the manual construction of these models can often be time-consuming to the average user, despite the advantages o ffered through computational advances. This thesis presents an approach to the design of 3D structures using evolutionary computation and L-systems, which involves the automated production of such designs using a strict set of fitness functions. These functions focus on the geometric properties of the models produced, as well as their quantifiable aesthetic value - a topic which has not been widely investigated with respect to 3D models. New extensions to existing aesthetic measures are discussed and implemented in the presented system in order to produce designs which are visually pleasing. The system itself facilitates the construction of models requiring minimal user initialization and no user-based feedback throughout the evolutionary cycle. The genetic programming evolved models are shown to satisfy multiple criteria, conveying a relationship between their assigned aesthetic value and their perceived aesthetic value. Exploration into the applicability and e ffectiveness of a multi-objective approach to the problem is also presented, with a focus on both performance and visual results. Although subjective, these results o er insight into future applications and study in the fi eld of computational aesthetics and automated structure design.

HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT- Sustainable Physical Activity Program Development and Evaluation for Youth with Special Needs: An Evaluative Case Study

The purpose of my research was to contribute to the improvement and sustainability of the Special Needs Activity Program, and develop program implementation strategies that had practical outcomes. I conducted an evaluative case study of S.N.A.P in order to determine what a quality adapted physical activity (APA) program is, why S.N.A.P is considered a quality APA program, and what institutional policies and practices exist to support it. Data was collected via interviews, questionnaires, and observations. Data analysis involved inductive and deductive methods, and a SWOTAR evaluation. Results indicate that quality APA programs include: ���people���, ���environment���, and ���expectations���; there are benefits of experiential learning; activity stations that promote creativity are valuable; several stakeholders do not know the details about S.N.A.P but recognize its value; the institution values what S.N.A.P provides, yet, there is nothing being done to sustain it. Future research should investigate the feasibility of implementing S.N.A.P in various contexts.