A származtatott termékek árazása és annak problémái az egyensúlyelmélet szempontjából (Pricing of derived products and problems with it in terms of equilibrium theory)

A szerző röviden összefoglalja a származtatott termékek árazásával kapcsolatos legfontosabb ismereteket és problémákat. A derivatív árazás elmélete a piacon levő termékek közötti redundanciát kihasználva próbálja meghatározni az egyes termékek relatív árát. Ezt azonban csak teljes piacon lehet megtenni, és így csak teljes piac esetén lehetséges a hasznossági függvények fogalmát az elméletből és a ráépülő gyakorlatból elhagyni, ezért a kockázatsemleges árazás elve félrevezető. Másképpen fogalmazva: a származtatott termékek elmélete csak azon az áron képes a hasznossági függvény fogalmától megszabadulni, ha a piac szerkezetére a valóságban nem teljesülő megkötéseket tesz. Ennek hangsúlyozása mind a piaci gyakorlatban, mind az oktatásban elengedhetetlen. / === / The author sums up briefly the main aspects and problems to do with the pricing of derived products. The theory of derivative pricing uses the redundancy among products on the market to arrive at relative product prices. But this can be done only on a complete market, so that only with a complete market does it become possible to omit from the theory and the practice built upon it the concept of utility functions, and for that reason the principle of risk-neutral pricing is misleading. To put it another way, the theory of derived products is capable of freeing itself from the concept of utility functions only at a price where in practice it places impossible restrictions on the market structure. This it is essential to emphasize in market practice and in teaching.

Realizing homology classes up to cobordism

4 pages, no figures

Efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of the human papillomavirus 16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine in women older than 25 years : 7-year follow-up of the phase 3, double-blind, randomised controlled VIVIANE study

Acknowledgments The VIVIANE study was funded and coordinated by GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA, which also covered all costs associated with development and publication of this report. We thank all study participants and their families. We gratefully acknowledge the work of the central and local study coordinators, and staff members of the sites who participated in this study. Writing support services were provided by Mary Greenacre (An Sgriobhadair, Isle of Barra, UK), on behalf of GSK Vaccines; editing and publication coordination services were provided by Jérôme Leemans (Keyrus Biopharma, Lasne, Belgium), Stéphanie Delval (XPE Pharma and Science, Wavre, Belgium), and Matthieu Depuydt (Business Decision Life Sciences, Brussels, Belgium), on behalf of GSK Vaccines

El multilateralismo como intervencionismo. Estados Unidos y la Sociedad de Naciones en América Latina (1930-1946)

Este artículo analiza una dinámica de intervenciones de Estados Unidos en América Latina que no ha atraído suficientemente la atención de los historiadores. En los años treinta y cuarenta, cuando Europa se hundía en una nueva confrontación bélica, ciertos sectores del gobierno y del mundo empresarial norteamericano intentaron articular una nueva relación con los países del continente basada en una propuesta de multilateralismo que se había configurado dentro de la Sociedad de Naciones (SN). Estos estadounidenses intentaron establecer una dinámica de relaciones triangulares con los gobiernos latinoamericanos y los organismos técnicos de la SN. Gracias a ello, como se mostrará en este artículo para el caso del funcionamiento del Comité Fiscal de la Sociedad de Naciones, los latinoamericanos fueron capaces de influir en el tipo de políticas que debían emanar de esta relación triangular. La importancia de esta historia no es menor. La relación triangular entre Estados Unidos, América Latina y la SN sirvió de base para la reconstrucción de la gobernanza global liderada por los Estados Unidos tras la guerra.

Digging up the frequency of phrasal verbs in English for the Police: the case of "up"

The present study focuses on the frequency of phrasal verbs with the particle up in the context of crime and police investigative work. This research emerges from the need to enlarge McCarthy and O’Dell’s (2004) scope from purely criminal behavior to police investigative actions. To do so, we relied on a corpus of 504,124 running words made up of spoken dialogues extracted from the script of the American TV series Castle shown on ABC since 2009. Based on Rudzka-Ostyn’s (2003) cognitive motivations for the particle up, we have identified five different meaning extensions for our phrasal verbs. Drawing from these findings, we have designed pedagogical activities for those L2 learners that study English at the Police Academy.

Mechanical stretch up-regulates the B-type natriuretic peptide system in human cardiac fibroblasts:a possible defense against transforming growth factor-β mediated fibrosis

BACKGROUND: Mechanical overload of the heart is associated with excessive deposition of extracellular matrix proteins and the development of cardiac fibrosis. This can result in reduced ventricular compliance, diastolic dysfunction, and heart failure. Extracellular matrix synthesis is regulated primarily by cardiac fibroblasts, more specifically, the active myofibroblast. The influence of mechanical stretch on human cardiac fibroblasts' response to pro-fibrotic stimuli, such as transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ), is unknown as is the impact of stretch on B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and natriuretic peptide receptor A (NPRA) expression. BNP, acting via NPRA, has been shown to play a role in modulation of cardiac fibrosis.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The effect of cyclical mechanical stretch on TGFβ induction of myofibroblast differentiation in primary human cardiac fibroblasts and whether differences in response to stretch were associated with changes in the natriuretic peptide system were investigated. Cyclical mechanical stretch attenuated the effectiveness of TGFβ in inducing myofibroblast differentiation. This finding was associated with a novel observation that mechanical stretch can increase BNP and NPRA expression in human cardiac fibroblasts, which could have important implications in modulating myocardial fibrosis. Exogenous BNP treatment further reduced the potency of TGFβ on mechanically stretched fibroblasts.

CONCLUSION: We postulate that stretch induced up-regulation of the natriuretic peptide system may contribute to the observed reduction in myofibroblast differentiation.

Clinical Outcomes in 3343 Children and Adults with Rheumatic Heart Disease from 14 Low and Middle Income Countries: 2-Year Follow-up of the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY study)

BACKGROUND: -There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) or information on their predictors. We report the two year follow-up of individuals with RHD from 14 low and middle income countries in Africa and Asia.

METHODS: -Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for two years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), recurrent acute rheumatic fever (ARF), and infective endocarditis (IE).

RESULTS: -Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age 28 years, interquartile range 18 to 40), the two year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio (HR) 2.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80-3.11), CHF (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.70-2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.32-2.10), atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.10-1.78) and older age (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.02 per year increase) at enrolment. Post-primary education (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54-0.85) and female sex (HR 0.65, 95%CI 0.52-0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. 204 (6.9%) had new CHF (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or TIA (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had ARF (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had IE (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/TIA or systemic embolism. Patients from low and lower-middle income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality compared to patients from upper-middle income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle income than in lower-middle- or low-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS: -Patients with clinical RHD have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low and lower-middle income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and treatment of clinical RHD are required to improve outcomes.

Effects of Information and Time of Use Pricing on Irish Electricity Demand and Supply

In this dissertation I quantify residential behavior response to interventions designed to reduce electricity demand at different periods of the day. In the first chapter, I examine the effect of information provision coupled with bimonthly billing, monthly billing, and in-home displays, as well as a time-of-use (TOU) pricing scheme to measure consumption over each month of the Irish Consumer Behavior Trial. I find that time-of-use pricing with real time usage information reduces electricity usage up to 8.7 percent during peak times at the start of the trial but the effect decays over the first three months and after three months the in-home display group is indistinguishable from the monthly treatment group. Monthly and bi-monthly billing treatments are not found to be statistically different from another. These findings suggest that increasing billing reports to the monthly level may be more cost effective for electricity generators who wish to decrease expenses and consumption, rather than providing in-home displays. In the following chapter, I examine the response of residential households after exposure to time of use tariffs at different hours of the day. I find that these treatments reduce electricity consumption during peak hours by almost four percent, significantly lowering demand. Within the model, I find evidence of overall conservation in electricity used. In addition, weekday peak reductions appear to carry over to the weekend when peak pricing is not present, suggesting changes in consumer habit. The final chapter of my dissertation imposes a system wide time of use plan to analyze the potential reduction in carbon emissions from load shifting based on the Ireland and Northern Single Electricity Market. I find that CO2 emissions savings are highest during the winter months when load demand is highest and dirtier power plants are scheduled to meet peak demand. TOU pricing allows for shifting in usage from peak usage to off peak usage and this shift in load can be met with cleaner and cheaper generated electricity from imports, high efficiency gas units, and hydro units.

Which way is up? Grounded mental representations of space

Processing language is postulated to involve a mental simulation, or re-enactment of perceptual, motor, and introspective states that were acquired experientially (Barsalou, 1999, 2008). One such aspect that is mentally simulated during processing of certain concepts is spatial location. For example, upon processing the word “moon” the prominent spatial location of the concept (e.g. ‘upward’) is mentally simulated. In six eye-tracking experiments, we investigate how mental simulations of spatial location affect processing. We first address a conflict in previous literature whereby processing is shown to be impacted in both a facilitatory and inhibitory way. Two of our experiments showed that mental simulations of spatial association facilitate saccades launched toward compatible locations; however, a third experiment showed an inhibitory effect on saccades launched towards incompatible locations. We investigated these differences with further experiments, which led us to conclude that the nature of the effect (facilitatory or inhibitory) is dependent on the demands of the task and, in fitting with the theory of Grounded Cognition (Barsalou, 2008), that mental simulations impact processing in a dynamic way. Three further experiments explored the nature of verticality – specifically, whether ‘up’ is perceived as away from gravity, or above our head. Using similar eye-tracking methods, and by manipulating the position of participants, we were able to dissociate these two possible standpoints. The results showed that mental simulations of spatial location facilitated saccades to compatible locations, but only when verticality was dissociated from gravity (i.e. ‘up’ was above the participant’s head). We conclude that this is not due to an ‘embodied’ mental simulation, but rather a result of heavily ingrained visuo-motor association between vertical space and eye movements.

Gestão nos Serviços com Sistemas de Monitorização e Implementação do Smart Pricing

A presente dissertação foi elaborada no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica (MEE) no Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto (ISEP), em regime empresarial, na empresa PH Energia Lda. Tem-se verificado que, ao longo dos últimos anos, os mercados estão cada vez mais competitivos, tornando-se quase imperativo que as empresas apostem numa boa otimização dos processos produtivos. Produzir cada vez mais, mais rapidamente e com menos recursos disponíveis, ou seja, de forma eficiente, são os desafios de todas as empresas que pretendem permanecer no mercado. Neste contexto surge o tema de tese, “Gestão nos Serviços com Sistemas de Monitorização e Implementação do Smart Pricing”, cujo objetivo tem como base principal a otimização das plataformas da PH Energia numa cultura de melhoria contínua e orientação para o cliente e promover aplicação da tarifa indexada e Smart Pricing em empresas de maneira a que exista uma maior poupança. Ao longo desta dissertação, foram desenvolvidos cálculos associados à monitorização e gestão nos serviços, bem como demonstrada a viabilidade dos mesmos na aplicação de tarifasindexadas e Smart Pricing no setor empresarial e, para finalizar, a compensação que é possível obter ao deslocar o diagrama de cargas, mantendo sempre o mesmo consumo. Na elaboração deste trabalho fez-se o cruzamento de duas plataformas informáticas designadas GesEnergy e Kisense, com ajuda da empresa VPS que tem como parceria a empresa Energia Simples. Em relação ao plano indexado, foram realizados dois estudos de dois balcões do Banco Popular de Portugal de forma a explicitar quando e como deve ser aplicada a tarifa indexada, gestão da procura, bem como deve ser deslocação do consumo, de forma a abranger as horas mais vantajosas em que o preço de energia elétrica é mais baixo.

Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates

Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

Experimental Infection of Culex Annulirostris, Culex Gelidus, and Aedes Vigilax With a Yellow Fever/Japanese Encephalitis Virus Vaccine Chimera (Chimerivax TM-JE)

Australian mosquitoes from which Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) has been recovered (Culex annulirostris, Culex gelidus, and Aedes vigilax) were assessed for their ability to be infected with the ChimeriVax-JE vaccine, with yellow fever vaccine virus 17D (YF 17D) from which the backbone of ChimeriVax-JE vaccine is derived and with JEV-Nakayama. None of the mosquitoes became infected after being fed orally with 6.1 log(10) plaque-forming units (PFU)/mL of ChimeriVax-JE vaccine, which is greater than the peak viremia in vaccinees (mean peak viremia = 4.8 PFU/mL, range = 0-30 PFU/mL of 0.9 days mean duration, range = 0-11 days). Some members of all three species of mosquito became infected when fed on JEV-Nakayama, but only Ae. vigilax was infected when fed on YF 17D. The results suggest that none of these three species of mosquito are likely to set up secondary cycles of transmission of ChimeriVax-JE in Australia after feeding on a viremic vaccinee.