Estudo do comportamento sísmico de barragens de gravidade com ancoragens passivas

Dissertação de Natureza Científica para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Estruturas

Aedes aegypti entomological indices in an endemic area for dengue in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the most productive types of properties and containers for Aedes aegypti and the spatial distribution of entomological indices.METHODS: Between December 2006 and February 2007, the vector's immature forms were collected to obtain entomological indices in 9,875 properties in the Jaguare neighborhood of Sao Jose do Rio Preto, SP, Southeastern Brazil. In March and April 2007, a questionnaire about the conditions and characteristics of properties was administered. Logistic regression was used to identify variables associated with the presence of pupae at the properties. Indices calculated per block were combined with a geo-referenced map, and thematic maps of these indices were obtained using statistical interpolation.RESULTS: The properties inspected had the following Ae. aegypti indices: Breteau Index = 18.9, 3.7 larvae and 0.42 pupae per property, 5.2 containers harboring Ae. aegypti per hectare, 100.0 larvae and 11.6 pupae per hectare, and 1.3 larvae and 0.15 pupae per inhabitant. The presence of yards, gardens and animals was associated with the presence of pupae.CONCLUSIONS: Specific types of properties and containers that simultaneously had low frequencies among those positive for the vector and high participation in the productivity of larvae and pupae were not identified. The use of indices including larval and pupal counts does not provide further information beyond that obtained from the traditional Stegomyia indices in locations with characteristics similar to those of São José do Rio Preto. The indices calculated per area were found to be more accurate for the spatial assessment of infestation. The Ae. aegypti infestation levels exhibited extensive spatial variation, indicating that the assessment of infestation in micro areas is needed.

Acidentes com motociclistas: comparação entre os anos 1998 e 2010. Londrina, PR, Brasil

OBJETIVO: Comparar características de acidentes de motocicleta e de vítimas atendidas por serviços de atenção pré-hospitalar.MÉTODOS: Pesquisa transversal com dados de registros de atendimentos pré-hospitalares de motociclistas, vítimas de acidente de trânsito em Londrina, PR, em 2010, e dos resultados comparados com estudo similar de 1998. A fonte de dados foi o Registro de Atendimento do Socorrista (RAS). As frotas de motocicletas e as populações dos respectivos anos foram usadas para estimativas do risco de ocorrência de vítimas. O teste do Qui-quadrado foi usado para comparação dos perfis de acidentes e vítimas.RESULTADOS: Foram atendidos 1.576 e 3.968 motociclistas em 1998 e 2010, respectivamente (aumento de 151,8%). A taxa de motociclistas acidentados por mil habitantes passou de 396,4 para 783,1, e a de vítimas para cada mil motos de 53,1 para 61,1. Observaram-se mudanças (p < 0,05) nos perfis dos acidentes, com maiores proporções de quedas isoladas de moto, de acidentes entre motociclistas, no período da manhã, com diminuição dos ocorridos em final de semana. Em relação às vítimas, observaram-se maiores proporções de mulheres, condutores, com 35 anos ou mais. Foi menor a frequência relativa de percepção de hálito etílico e maior a prevalência do uso do capacete. Houve menor proporção de vítimas classificadas com escalas de coma e trauma moderado/grave e de encaminhamentos hospitalares. O coeficiente de letalidade imediato reduziu-se de 1,2% para 0,6%.CONCLUSÕES: Foram observadas mudanças nos perfis de acidentes e de vítimas no período. Apesar do aumento absoluto e relativo de vítimas de acidentes de motocicleta, observou-se menor gravidade proporcional desses acidentes.

Via, homem e veiculo: fatores de risco associados a gravidade dos acidentes de transito

OBJETIVO Analisar as características das vítimas, vias e veículos envolvidos em acidentes de trânsito e os fatores de risco de acidentes com ocorrência de óbito.  MÉTODOS Estudo de coorte não concorrente considerando os acidentes de trânsito em Fortaleza, CE, de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2008. Foram utilizados dados do Sistema de Informação de Acidente de Trânsito de Fortaleza, do Sistema de Informações de Mortalidade, do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares e dos bancos de dados de Habilitação e Veículos do Departamento Estadual de Trânsito. Técnicas de relacionamento determinístico e probabilístico foram aplicadas para integrar as bases de dados. Efetuou-se a análise descritiva das variáveis relativas às pessoas, às vias, aos veículos e ao tempo. Foram utilizados os modelos lineares generalizados na investigação de fatores de risco para óbito por acidente de trânsito. O ajuste do modelo foi verificado pela razão de verossimilhança e análise ROC.  RESULTADOS Registraram-se 118.830 acidentes no período. Predominaram colisão/abalroamento (78,1%), atropelamentos (11,9%) e choque com obstáculo fixo (3,9%) e com motocicletas (18,1%). Ocorreram óbitos em 1,4% dos acidentes. Estiveram independentemente associados ao óbito por acidente de trânsito: bicicletas (OR = 21,2; IC95% 16,1;27,8), atropelamentos (OR = 5,9; IC95% 3,7;9,2), choque com obstáculo fixo (OR = 5,7; IC95% 3,1;10,5) e acidentes com motociclistas (OR = 3,5; IC95% 2,6;4,6). Os principais fatores contribuintes foram envolvimento de uma única pessoa (OR = 6,6; IC95% 4,1;10,73), presença de condutores não habilitados (OR = 4,1; IC95% 2,9;5,5) um único veículo envolvido (OR = 3,9; IC95% 2,3;6,4), sexo masculino (OR = 2,5; IC95% 1,9;3,3), tráfego em vias de jurisdição federal (OR = 2,4; IC95% 1,8;3,7), horário madrugada (OR = 2,4; IC95% 1,8;3,0) e dia de domingo (OR = 1,7; IC95% 1,3;2,2), todas ajustadas segundo modelo log-binomial.  CONCLUSÕES As ações de promoção e prevenção de acidentes no trânsito devem focar os acidentes com veículos de duas rodas, que mais frequentemente envolvem uma única pessoa, não habilitada, do sexo masculino, em horários noturnos, em finais de semana e nas vias onde se desenvolvem maiores velocidades.

Analysis of stock market indices with multidimensional scaling and wavelets

Stock market indices SMIs are important measures of financial and economical performance. Considerable research efforts during the last years demonstrated that these signals have a chaotic nature and require sophisticated mathematical tools for analyzing their characteristics. Classical methods, such as the Fourier transform, reveal considerable limitations in discriminating different periods of time. This paper studies the dynamics of SMI by combining the wavelet transform and the multidimensional scaling MDS . Six continuous wavelets are tested for analyzing the information content of the stock signals. In a first phase, the real Shannon wavelet is adopted for performing the evaluation of the SMI dynamics, while their comparison is visualized by means of the MDS. In a second phase, the other wavelets are also tested, and the corresponding MDS plots are analyzed.

Complex dynamics of financial indices

This paper presents a novel method for the analysis of nonlinear financial and economic systems. The modeling approach integrates the classical concepts of state space representation and time series regression. The analytical and numerical scheme leads to a parameter space representation that constitutes a valid alternative to represent the dynamical behavior. The results reveal that business cycles can be clearly revealed, while the noise effects common in financial indices can elegantly be filtered out of the results.

Analysis of financial indices by means of the windowed Fourier transform

The goal of this study is to analyze the dynamical properties of financial data series from nineteen worldwide stock market indices (SMI) during the period 1995–2009. SMI reveal a complex behavior that can be explored since it is available a considerable volume of data. In this paper is applied the window Fourier transform and methods of fractional calculus. The results reveal classification patterns typical of fractional order systems.

Verificação da segurança aos sismos de estruturas portuárias de gravidade

A verificação da segurança aos sismos de estruturas portuárias assume grande relevância no contexto nacional pela conjugação de dois factores: a perigosidade sísmica moderada da faixa costeira e a importância sócio-económica que este tipo de infraestruturas representa para o País. Nesta tese realiza-se uma breve apresentação das várias soluções estruturais correntes em obras portuárias, particularizando-se o comportamento sísmico observado de estruturas de gravidade com infraestrutura em caixotão, para sismos ocorridos nas últimas duas décadas. A apresentação da Metodologia por Avaliação de Desempenho aplicada às estruturas portuárias de gravidade, como forma de verificar a segurança aos sismos, pretende concretizar a aplicação do método no controlo dos danos para a uma determinada acção sísmica e, consequentemente, da minimização dos custos associados à reparação e à inoperacionalidade do porto.

Analysis of stock market indices through multidimensional scaling

We propose a graphical method to visualize possible time-varying correlations between fifteen stock market values. The method is useful for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behaviour. The graphs, originated from applying multidimensional scaling techniques (MDS), may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models.

Paired indices for clustering evaluation correction for agreement by chance

In the present paper we focus on the performance of clustering algorithms using indices of paired agreement to measure the accordance between clusters and an a priori known structure. We specifically propose a method to correct all indices considered for agreement by chance - the adjusted indices are meant to provide a realistic measure of clustering performance. The proposed method enables the correction of virtually any index - overcoming previous limitations known in the literature - and provides very precise results. We use simulated datasets under diverse scenarios and discuss the pertinence of our proposal which is particularly relevant when poorly separated clusters are considered. Finally we compare the performance of EM and KMeans algorithms, within each of the simulated scenarios and generally conclude that EM generally yields best results.

Densities and refractive indices for the ternary mixture methanol/propan-1-Ol/acetonitrile

Refractive indices, n(D), and densities, rho, at 298.15 K were measured for the ternary mixture methanol (MeOH)/propan-1-ol (1-PrOH)/acetonitrile (MeCN) for a total of 22 mole fractions, along with 18 mole fractions of each of the corresponding binary mixtures, methanol/propan-1-ol, propan-1-ol/acetonitrile and methanol/acetonitrile. The variation of excess refractive indices and excess molar volumes with composition was modeled by the Redlich-Kister polynomial function in the case of binary mixtures and by the Cibulka equation for the ternary mixture. A thermodynamic approach to excess refractive indices, recently proposed by other authors, was applied for the first time to ternary liquid mixtures. Structural effects were identified and interpreted both in the binary and ternary systems. A complex relationship between excess refractive indices and excess molar volumes was identified, revealing all four possible sign combinations between these two properties. Structuring of the mixtures was also discussed on the basis of partial molar volumes of the binary and ternary mixtures.

O Peso da gravidade: corpos e gestos na poesia galego-portuguesa

This article studies how galician-portuguese medieval poetry deals with the human body and the human gestures, taking in account the three major poetical genres, the love song, the "amiga" song (feminine voices) and the satyrical song.

A fractional perspective to financial indices

The application of mathematical methods and computer algorithms in the analysis of economic and financial data series aims to give empirical descriptions of the hidden relations between many complex or unknown variables and systems. This strategy overcomes the requirement for building models based on a set of ‘fundamental laws’, which is the paradigm for studying phenomena usual in physics and engineering. In spite of this shortcut, the fact is that financial series demonstrate to be hard to tackle, involving complex memory effects and a apparently chaotic behaviour. Several measures for describing these objects were adopted by market agents, but, due to their simplicity, they are not capable to cope with the diversity and complexity embedded in the data. Therefore, it is important to propose new measures that, on one hand, are highly interpretable by standard personal but, on the other hand, are capable of capturing a significant part of the dynamical effects.

Comparing clustering solutions: the use of adjusted paired indices

In the present paper we compare clustering solutions using indices of paired agreement. We propose a new method - IADJUST - to correct indices of paired agreement, excluding agreement by chance. This new method overcomes previous limitations known in the literature as it permits the correction of any index. We illustrate its use in external clustering validation, to measure the accordance between clusters and an a priori known structure. The adjusted indices are intended to provide a realistic measure of clustering performance that excludes agreement by chance with ground truth. We use simulated data sets, under a range of scenarios - considering diverse numbers of clusters, clusters overlaps and balances - to discuss the pertinence and the precision of our proposal. Precision is established based on comparisons with the analytical approach for correction specific indices that can be corrected in this way are used for this purpose. The pertinence of the proposed correction is discussed when making a detailed comparison between the performance of two classical clustering approaches, namely Expectation-Maximization (EM) and K-Means (KM) algorithms. Eight indices of paired agreement are studied and new corrected indices are obtained.

Two new power indices based on winning coalitions

Deegan and Packel (1979) and Holler (1982) proposed two power indices for simple games: the Deegan–Packel index and the Public Good Index. In the definition of these indices, only minimal winning coalitions are taken into account. Using similar arguments, we define two new power indices. These new indices are defined taking into account only those winning coalitions that do not contain null players. The results obtained with the different power indices are compared by means of two real-world examples taken from the political field.