Definition of Model-based diagnosis problems with Altarica

International audience

Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

Seismotectonic study on two strategic infrastructures in Southern Italy

With the entry into force of the latest Italian Building Code (NTC 2008, 2018), innovative criteria were provided, especially for what concerns the seismic verifications of large infrastructures. In particular, for buildings considered as strategic, such as large dams, a seismotectonic study of the site was declared necessary, which involves a re-assessment of the basic seismic hazard. This PhD project fits into this context, being part of the seismic re-evaluation process of large dams launched on a national scale following the O.P.C.M. 3274/2003, D.L. 79/2004. A full seismotectonic study in the region of two large earth dams in Southern Italy was carried out. We identified and characterized the structures that could generate earthquakes in our study area, together with the definition of the local seismic history. This information was used for the reassessment of the basic seismic hazard, using probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches. In recent years, fault-based models for the seismic hazard assessment have been proposed all over the world as a new emerging methodology. For this reason, we decided to test the innovative SHERIFS approach on our study area. The occasion of the seismotectonic study gave also the opportunity to focus on the characteristics of the seismic stations that provided the data for the study itself. In the context of the work presented here, we focused on the 10 stations that had been active for the longest time and we carried out a geophysical characterization, the data of which merged into a more general study on the soil-structure interaction at seismic stations and on the ways in which it could affect the SHA. Lastly, an additional experimental study on the two dams and their associated minor structures is also presented, aimed at defining their main dynamic parameters, useful for subsequent dynamic structural and geotechnical studies.

NEAR INFRARED SPECTROSCOPY FOR ESTIMATING SUGARCANE BAGASSE CONTENT IN MEDIUM DENSITY FIBERBOARD

Medium density fiberboard (MDF) is an engineered wood product formed by breaking down selected lignin-cellulosic material residuals into fibers, combining it with wax and a resin binder, and then forming panels by applying high temperature and pressure. Because the raw material in the industrial process is ever-changing, the panel industry requires methods for monitoring the composition of their products. The aim of this study was to estimate the ratio of sugarcane (SC) bagasse to Eucalyptus wood in MDF panels using near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square (PLS) regressions were performed. MDF panels having different bagasse contents were easily distinguished from each other by the PCA of their NIR spectra with clearly different patterns of response. The PLS-R models for SC content of these MDF samples presented a strong coefficient of determination (0.96) between the NIR-predicted and Lab-determined values and a low standard error of prediction (similar to 1.5%) in the cross-validations. A key role of resins (adhesives), cellulose, and lignin for such PLS-R calibrations was shown. PLS-DA model correctly classified ninety-four percent of MDF samples by cross-validations and ninety-eight percent of the panels by independent test set. These NIR-based models can be useful to quickly estimate sugarcane bagasse vs. Eucalyptus wood content ratio in unknown MDF samples and to verify the quality of these engineered wood products in an online process.

Time correlation function in systems with two coexisting biological species

We study a stochastic lattice model describing the dynamics of coexistence of two interacting biological species. The model comprehends the local processes of birth, death, and diffusion of individuals of each species and is grounded on interaction of the predator-prey type. The species coexistence can be of two types: With self-sustained coupled time oscillations of population densities and without oscillations. We perform numerical simulations of the model on a square lattice and analyze the temporal behavior of each species by computing the time correlation functions as well as the spectral densities. This analysis provides an appropriate characterization of the different types of coexistence. It is also used to examine linked population cycles in nature and in experiment.

Simulation of Soil Carbon Dynamics under Sugarcane with the CENTURY Model

Currently there is a trend for the expansion of the area cropped with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), driven by an increase in the world demand for biofuels, due to economical, environmental, and geopolitical issues. Although sugarcane is traditionally harvested by burning dried leaves and tops, the unburned, mechanized harvest has been progressively adopted. The use of process based models is useful in understanding the effects of plant litter in soil C dynamics. The objective of this work was to use the CENTURY model in evaluating the effect of sugarcane residue management in the temporal dynamics of soil C. The approach taken in this work was to parameterize the CENTURY model for the sugarcane crop, to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C, validating the model through field experiment data, and finally to make predictions in the long term regarding soil C. The main focus of this work was the comparison of soil C stocks between the burned and unburned litter management systems, but the effect of mineral fertilizer and organic residue applications were also evaluated. The simulations were performed with data from experiments with different durations, from 1 to 60 yr, in Goiana and Timbauba, Pernambuco, and Pradopolis, Sao Paulo, all in Brazil; and Mount Edgecombe, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. It was possible to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C (R(2) = 0.89). The predictions made with the model revealed that there is, in the long term, a trend for higher soil C stocks with the unburned management. This increase is conditioned by factors such as climate, soil texture, time of adoption of the unburned system, and N fertilizer management.

Development of Ramulosis Disease of Cotton Under Controlled Environment and Field Conditions

Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis disease of cotton, is widespread in Brazil and can cause severe yield loss. Because weather conditions greatly affect disease development, the objective of this work was to develop weather-based models to assess disease favorability. Latent period, incidence, and severity of ramulosis symptoms were evaluated in controlled environment experiments using factorial combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 h after inoculation). Severity was modeled as an exponential function of leaf wetness duration and temperature. At the optimum temperature of disease development, 27 degrees C, average latent period was 10 days. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30 degrees C, with sharp decreases at lower and higher temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. In field experiments at Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, cotton plots were inoculated (10(5) conidia ml(-1)) and ramulosis severity was evaluated weekly. The model obtained from the controlled environment study was used to generate a disease favorability index for comparison with disease progress rate in the field. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables. Both the disease favorability model and a model based on rainfall explained ramulosis growth rate well, with R(2) of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively. They are proposed as models of ramulosis development rate on cotton in Brazil, and weather-disease relationships revealed by this work can form the basis of a warning system for ramulosis development.

Within-stand and seasonal variations of specific leaf area in a clonal Eucalyptus plantation in the Republic of Congo

Specific leaf area (SLA; m(leaf)(2) kg(leaf)(-1)) is a key ecophysiological parameter influencing leaf physiology, photosynthesis, and whole plant carbon gain. Both individual tree-based models and other forest process-based models are generally highly sensitive to this parameter, but information on its temporal or within-stand variability is still scarce. In a 2-4-year-old Eucalyptus plantation in Congo, prone to seasonal drought, the within-stand and seasonal variability in SLA were investigated by means of destructive sampling carried out at 2-month intervals, over a 2-year period. Within-crown vertical gradients of SLA were small. Highly significant relationships were found between tree-average SLA (SLA(t)) and tree size (tree height, H(t), or diameter at breast height, DBH): SLA(t) ranged from about 9 m(2) kg(-1) for dominant trees to about 14-15 m(2) kg(-1) for the smallest trees. The decrease in SLA(t) with increasing tree size was accurately predicted from DBH using power functions. Stand-average SLA varied by about 20% during the year, with lowest values at the end of the 5-month dry season, and highest values about 2-3 months after the onset of the wet season. Variability in leaf water status according to tree size and season is discussed as a possible determinant of both the within-stand and seasonal variations in SM. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pollen abortion rates, nitrogen dioxide by passive diffusive tubes and bioaccumulation in tree barks are effective in the characterization of air pollution

This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of using simple techniques - pollen abortion rates, passive diffusive tubes (NO(2)) and trace element accumulation in tree barks - when determining the area of influence of pollution emissions produced in a traffic corridor. Measurements were performed at 0, 60 and 120 meters from a major road with high vehicular traffic, taking advantage of a sharp gradient that exists between the road and a cemetery. NO(2) values and trace elements measured at 0 meters were significantly higher than those measured at more distant points. Al, S. Cl, V. Fe, Cu, and Zn exhibited a higher concentration in tree barks at the vicinity of the traffic corridor. The same pattern was observed for the pollen abortion rates measured at the three different sites. Our data suggests that simple techniques may be applied either to validate dispersion land-based models in an urban settings or, alternatively, to provide better spatial resolution to air pollution exposure when high-resolution pollution monitoring data are not available. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modification-related porosity formation in hypoeutectic aluminum-silicon alloys

A series of aluminum-10 wt pet silicon castings were produced in sand molds to investigate the effect of modification on porosity formation. Modification with individual additions of either strontium or sodium resulted in a statistically significant increase in the level of porosity compared to unmodified castings. The increase in porosity with modification is due to the presence of numerous dispersed pores, which were absent in the unmodified casting. It is proposed that these pores form as a result of differences in size of the aluminum-silicon eutectic grains between unmodified and modified alloys. A geometric model is developed to show how the size of eutectic grains can influence the amount and distribution of porosity. Unlike traditional feeding-based models, which incorporate the effect: of microstructure on permeability, this model considers what happens when liquid is isolated from the riser and can no longer flow. This simple isolation model complements rather than contradicts existing theories on modification-related porosity formation and should be considered in the development of future comprehensive models.

Macromolecular assembly of polycystin-2 intracytosolic C-terminal domain

Mutations in PKD2 are responsible for approximately 15% of the autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease cases. This gene encodes polycystin-2, a calcium-permeable cation channel whose C-terminal intracytosolic tail (PC2t) plays an important role in its interaction with a number of different proteins. In the present study, we have comprehensively evaluated the macromolecular assembly of PC2t homooligomer using a series of biophysical and biochemical analyses. Our studies, based on a new delimitation of PC2t, have revealed that it is capable of assembling as a homotetramer independently of any other portion of the molecule. Our data support this tetrameric arrangement in the presence and absence of calcium. Molecular dynamics simulations performed with a modified all-atoms structure-based model supported the PC2t tetrameric assembly, as well as how different populations are disposed in solution. The simulations demonstrated, indeed, that the best-scored structures are the ones compatible with a fourfold oligomeric state. These findings clarify the structural properties of PC2t domain and strongly support a homotetramer assembly of PC2.

Aripiprazole, an atypical antipsychotic prevents the motor hyperactivity induced by psychotomimetics, and psyphostimulants in mice

Aripiprazole is an atypical antipsychotic that acts as a partial agonist at the dopamine D-2 receptor. It has been mainly investigated in dopamine-based models of schizophrenia, while its effects on glutamate-based paradigms have remained to be further characterized. Due to its unique mechanism of action, aripiprazole has also been considered as a replacement medication for psychostimulant abuse. Thus, in the present study we tested the hypothesis that aripiprazole would prevent the motor hyperactivity induced by psychostimulant and psychotomimetic drugs that act either by dopaminergic or glutamatergic mechanisms. Male Swiss mice received injections of aripiprazole (0.1-1 mg/kg) followed by drugs that enhance the dopamine-mediated neurotransmission, amphetamine (3 mg/kg) or cocaine (5 mg/kg), or by glutamate NMDA-receptor antagonists, ketamine (60 mg/kg) or MK-801 (0.4 mg/kg). Independent groups also received aripiprazole (0.1-1 mg/kg) or haloperidol (0.5 mg/kg) and were tested for catalepsy. All doses of aripiprazole were effective in preventing the motor stimulant effects of amphetamine and cocaine. Moreover, the higher dose also prevented the effects of ketamine and MK-801. The present study reports the effects of aripiprazole in dopaminergic and glutamatergic models predictive of antipsychotic activity, suggesting that both may be useful for screening novel partial agonists with antipsychotic activity. It also shows that aripiprazole may prevent the acute effects of psychostimulant drugs without significant motor impairment. C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A dynamic model with on-line identification for rotary sugar drying processes

A dynamic modelling methodology, which combines on-line variable estimation and parameter identification with physical laws to form an adaptive model for rotary sugar drying processes, is developed in this paper. In contrast to the conventional rate-based models using empirical transfer coefficients, the heat and mass transfer rates are estimated by using on-line measurements in the new model. Furthermore, a set of improved sectional solid transport equations with localized parameters is developed in this work to reidentified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.place the global correlation for the computation of solid retention time. Since a number of key model variables and parameters are identified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.

The martensitic transformation in ceramics - its role in transformation toughening

This paper reviews the current knowledge and understanding of martensitic transformations in ceramics - the tetragonal to monoclinic transformation in zirconia in particular. This martensitic transformation is the key to transformation toughening in zirconia ceramics. A very considerable body of experimental data on the characteristics of this transformation is now available. In addition, theoretical predictions can be made using the phenomenological theory of martensitic transformations. As the paper will illustrate, the phenomenological theory is capable of explaining all the reported microstructural and crystallographic features of the transformation in zirconia and in some other ceramic systems. Hence the theory, supported by experiment, can be used with considerable confidence to provide the quantitative data that is essential for developing a credible, comprehensive understanding of the transformation toughening process. A critical feature in transformation toughening is the shape strain that accompanies the transformation. This shape strain, or nucleation strain, determines whether or not the stress-induced martensitic transformation can occur at the tip of a potentially dangerous crack. If transformation does take place, then it is the net transformation strain left behind in the transformed region that provides toughening by hindering crack growth. The fracture mechanics based models for transformation toughening, therefore, depend on having a full understanding of the characteristics of the martensitic transformation and, in particular, on being able to specify both these strains. A review of the development of the models for transformation toughening shows that their refinement and improvement over the last couple of decades has been largely a result of the inclusion of more of the characteristics of the stress-induced martensitic transformation. The paper advances an improved model for the stress-induced martensitic transformation and the strains resulting from the transformation. This model, which separates the nucleation strain from the subsequent net transformation strain, is shown to be superior to any of the constitutive models currently available. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelagem da dispersão de odores em ambientes urbanos

O presente trabalho investigou o problema da modelagem da dispersão de compostos odorantes em presença de obstáculos (cúbicos e com forma complexa) sob condição de estabilidade atmosférica neutra. Foi empregada modelagem numérica baseada nas equações de transporte (CFD1) bem como em modelos algébricos baseados na pluma Gausseana (AERMOD2, CALPUFF3 e FPM4). Para a validação dos resultados dos modelos e a avaliação do seu desempenho foram empregados dados de experimentos em túnel de vento e em campo. A fim de incluir os efeitos da turbulência atmosférica na dispersão, dois diferentes modelos de sub-malha associados à Simulação das Grandes Escalas (LES5) foram investigados (Smagorinsky dinâmico e WALE6) e, para a inclusão dos efeitos de obstáculos na dispersão nos modelos Gausseanos, foi empregado o modelo PRIME7. O uso do PRIME também foi proposto para o FPM como uma inovação. De forma geral, os resultados indicam que o uso de CFD/LES é uma ferramenta útil para a investigação da dispersão e o impacto de compostos odorantes em presença de obstáculos e também para desenvolvimento dos modelos Gausseanos. Os resultados também indicam que o modelo FPM proposto, com a inclusão dos efeitos do obstáculo baseado no PRIME também é uma ferramenta muito útil em modelagem da dispersão de odores devido à sua simplicidade e fácil configuração quando comparado a modelos mais complexos como CFD e mesmo os modelos regulatórios AERMOD e CALPUFF. A grande vantagem do FPM é a possibilidade de estimar-se o fator de intermitência e a relação pico-média (P/M), parâmetros úteis para a avaliação do impacto de odores. Os resultados obtidos no presente trabalho indicam que a determinação dos parâmetros de dispersão para os segmentos de pluma, bem como os parâmetros de tempo longo nas proximidades da fonte e do obstáculo no modelo FPM pode ser melhorada e simulações CFD podem ser usadas como uma ferramenta de desenvolvimento para este propósito. Palavras chave: controle de odor, dispersão, fluidodinâmica computacional, modelagem matemática, modelagem gaussiana de pluma flutuante, simulação de grandes vórtices (LES).