Estratégias de comercialização e investimento, com ênfase em energias renováveis, suportadas por modelos de otimização especializados para avaliação estocástica de risco x retorno.

A comercialização de energia elétrica de fontes renováveis, ordinariamente, constitui-se uma atividade em que as operações são estruturadas sob condições de incerteza, por exemplo, em relação ao preço \"spot\" no mercado de curto prazo e a geração de energia dos empreendimentos. Deriva desse fato a busca dos agentes pela formulação de estratégias e utilização de ferramentais para auxiliá-los em suas tomadas de decisão, visando não somente o retorno financeiro, mas também à mitigação dos riscos envolvidos. Análises de investimentos em fontes renováveis compartilham de desafios similares. Na literatura, o estudo da tomada de decisão considerada ótima sob condições de incerteza se dá por meio da aplicação de técnicas de programação estocástica, que viabiliza a modelagem de problemas com variáveis randômicas e a obtenção de soluções racionais, de interesse para o investidor. Esses modelos permitem a incorporação de métricas de risco, como por exemplo, o Conditional Value-at-Risk, a fim de se obter soluções ótimas que ponderem a expectativa de resultado financeiro e o risco associado da operação, onde a aversão ao risco do agente torna-se um condicionante fundamental. O objetivo principal da Tese - sob a ótica dos agentes geradores, consumidores e comercializadores - é: (i) desenvolver e implementar modelos de otimização em programação linear estocástica com métrica CVaR associada, customizados para cada um desses agentes; e (ii) aplicá-los na análise estratégica de operações como forma de apresentar alternativas factíveis à gestão das atividades desses agentes e contribuir com a proposição de um instrumento conceitualmente robusto e amigável ao usuário, para utilização por parte das empresas. Nesse contexto, como antes frisado, dá-se ênfase na análise do risco financeiro dessas operações por meio da aplicação do CVaR e com base na aversão ao risco do agente. Considera-se as fontes renováveis hídrica e eólica como opções de ativos de geração, de forma a estudar o efeito de complementaridade entre fontes distintas e entre sites distintos da mesma fonte, avaliando-se os rebatimentos nas operações.

Muscle synergies at the elbow in static and oscillating isometric torque tasks with dual degrees of freedom

This study's aim was to identify the effect of oscillation of torques in isometric tasks under identical mechanical conditions on the muscle synergies used. It was hypothesized that bi-functional muscles would play a lesser role in torque oscillation, because they would also generate an undesired oscillation. Thus, changes in muscle synergies were expected as a consequence of oscillation in torque generation. The effect of the trajectory of torque generation was investigated in dual-degrees-of-freedom submaximal isometric oscillation torque tasks at the elbow. The torques were flexion-extension and supination-pronation. Oscillation torques were compared with static torque generations at four torque positions during oscillation. Muscle activity was determined with surface electromyography. Compared with the static torque tasks, the oscillation tasks showed an overall increased muscle activity. The oscillation tasks, however, showed similar activity patterns and muscle synergies compared to the static composite tasks. It was found that the motor system is well able to control different orthogonal combinations of slow torque oscillations and constant torques by employing a single oscillating muscle synergy.

High- and low-volume resistance training similarly enhances functional performance in older adults

It is well known that resistance training improves muscle strength in older adults and may enhance or preserve functional performance. However, it is unclear if the volume of work undertaken in the elderly alters the response in functional performance. PURPOSE: To investigate the effect of a high- versus low-volume resistance training program on functional performance in older adults. METHODS: Thirty-two healthy men and women aged 65-78 years were randomly assigned to either a single-set (SS, n = 16) or 3-set (MS, n = 16) progressive resistance training program for 20 weeks. Groups trained 2 days per week using machine weights at 8 repetitions maximum (8-RM) for 7 upper and lower body exercises. Muscle strength was assessed by the 1-RM and functional performance by a battery of tests (repeated chair rise, usual and fast 6-m walk, 6-m backwards walk, floor rise to standing, stair climb, and 400-m walk time). RESULTS: Twenty-eight subjects completed the study. There was no difference between groups at baseline in muscle strength or functional performance. Whole body muscle strength significantly increased in both groups with greater gains in the 3-set group (MS 32.9 ± 3.1%; SS 18.6 ± 2.7%, mean ± SE; P < 0.01). Significant improvement (time effect, P < 0.01) occurred for both groups in the chair rise (MS 13.6 ± 3.2%; SS 10.2 ± 3.0%), 6-m backwards walk (MS 14.9 ± 3.3%; SS 14.3 ± 4.2%), stair climb (MS 6.4 ± 2.8%; SS 7.7 ± 3.1%) and 400-m walk (MS 7.4 ± 1.4%; SS 3.9 ± 1.2%). There were no interaction (group × time) effects for functional performance and no differences by sex. CONCLUSION: Resistance training that utilizes either a singleset or 3-set regimen may significantly and similarly improve functional performance in community-dwelling older adults. Enhancement of functional performance may prolong independence and improve quality of life. ©2004The American College of Sports Medicine

Phylogenetic analysis of within -host serially-sampled viral data

The primary goal of this dissertation is the study of patterns of viral evolution inferred from serially-sampled sequence data, i.e., sequence data obtained from strains isolated at consecutive time points from a single patient or host. RNA viral populations have an extremely high genetic variability, largely due to their astronomical population sizes within host systems, high replication rate, and short generation time. It is this aspect of their evolution that demands special attention and a different approach when studying the evolutionary relationships of serially-sampled sequence data. New methods that analyze serially-sampled data were developed shortly after a groundbreaking HIV-1 study of several patients from which viruses were isolated at recurring intervals over a period of 10 or more years. These methods assume a tree-like evolutionary model, while many RNA viruses have the capacity to exchange genetic material with one another using a process called recombination. ^ A genealogy involving recombination is best described by a network structure. A more general approach was implemented in a new computational tool, Sliding MinPD, one that is mindful of the sampling times of the input sequences and that reconstructs the viral evolutionary relationships in the form of a network structure with implicit representations of recombination events. The underlying network organization reveals unique patterns of viral evolution and could help explain the emergence of disease-associated mutants and drug-resistant strains, with implications for patient prognosis and treatment strategies. In order to comprehensively test the developed methods and to carry out comparison studies with other methods, synthetic data sets are critical. Therefore, appropriate sequence generators were also developed to simulate the evolution of serially-sampled recombinant viruses, new and more through evaluation criteria for recombination detection methods were established, and three major comparison studies were performed. The newly developed tools were also applied to "real" HIV-1 sequence data and it was shown that the results represented within an evolutionary network structure can be interpreted in biologically meaningful ways. ^

Shift Scheduling in Services When Employees Have Limited Availability: An L. P. Approach

This paper compares two linear programming (LP) models for shift scheduling in services where homogeneously-skilled employees are available at limited times. Although both models are based on set covering approaches, one explicitly matches employees to shifts, while the other imposes this matching implicitly. Each model is used in three forms—one with complete, another with very limited meal break placement flexibility, and a third without meal breaks—to provide initial schedules to a completion/improvement heuristic. The term completion/improvement heuristic is used to describe a construction/ improvement heuristic operating on a starting schedule. On 80 test problems varying widely in scheduling flexibility, employee staffing requirements, and employee availability characteristics, all six LP-based procedures generated lower cost schedules than a comparison from-scratch construction/improvement heuristic. This heuristic, which perpetually maintains an explicit matching of employees to shifts, consists of three phases which add, drop, and modify shifts. In terms of schedule cost, schedule generation time, and model size, the procedures based on the implicit model performed better, as a group, than those based on the explicit model. The LP model with complete break placement flexibility and implicitly matching employees to shifts generated schedules costing 6.7% less than those developed by the from-scratch heuristic.

Reference ranges for uterine artery pulsatility index during the menstrual cycle: a cross-sectional study

Cyclic endometrial neoangiogenesis contributes to changes in local vascular patterns and is amenable to non-invasive assessment with Doppler sonography. We hypothesize that the uterine artery (UtA) impedance, measured by its pulsatility index (PI), exhibits a regular pattern during the normal menstrual cycle. Therefore, the main study objective was to derive normative new day-cycle-based reference ranges for the UtA-PI during the entire cycle from days 1 to 34 according to the isolated time effect and potential confounders such as age and parity.

Exercise intervention in pediatric patients with solid tumors: The PAPEC trial

The randomized controlled trial ‘Physical Activity in Pediatric Cancer’ (PAPEC) determined the effects of an in-hospital exercise intervention combining aerobic and muscle strength training on pediatric cancer patients with solid tumors undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Methods. Participants were allocated to an exercise (n=24, 17 boys; mean±SEM age 10±1y) or control group (n=25, 18 boys; 11±1y). Training included three sessions/week for 19±2 weeks. Participants were assessed at treatment initiation, termination, and two months after end-treatment. The primary endpoint was muscle strength (as assessed by upper and lower-body five-repetition-maximum (5RM) tests). Secondary endpoints included cardiorespiratory fitness, functional capacity during daily life activities, physical activity, body mass and body mass index, and quality of life. Results. Most sessions were performed in the hospital’s gymnasium. Adherence to the program averaged 68±4% and no major adverse events or health issues were noted. A significant interaction (group*time) effect was found for all 5RM tests. Performance significantly increased after training (leg press: 40% (95% CI=15–41 kg); bench press: 24% (95% CI=6–14 kg); lateral row 25% (95%CI=6–15 kg)), whereas an opposite trend was found in controls. Two-month post values tended to be higher than baseline for leg (P=0.017) and bench press (P=0.014). In contrast, no significant interaction effect was found for any of the secondary endpoints. Conclusion. An in-hospital exercise program for pediatric cancer patients with solid tumors undergoing neoadjuvant treatment increases muscle strength despite the aggressiveness of such therapy. Key words: Cancer, exercise, muscle strength, fitness, quality of life.

Effects of dry-land strength and conditioning programs in age group swimmers

Context: Even though dry-land S&C training is a common practice in swimming, there are countless uncertainties over it effects in performance of age group swimmers. Objective: To investigate the effects of dry-land S&C programs in swimming performance of age group swimmers. Participants: A total of 21 male competitive swimmers (12.7±0.7 years) were randomly assigned to the Control Group (n=7) and experimental GR1 and GR2 (n=7 for each group). Intervention: Control group performed a 10-week training period of swim training alone, GR1 followed a 6-week dry-land S&C program based on sets/repetitions plus a 4-week swim training program alone and GR2 followed a 6-week dry-land S&C program focused on explosiveness, plus a 4-week program of swim training alone. Results: For the dry-land tests a time effect was observed between week 0 and week 6 for vertical jump (p<0.01) in both experimental groups, and for the GR2 ball throwing (p<0.01), with moderate-strong effect sizes. The time*group analyses showed that for performance in 50 m, differences were significant, with the GR2 presenting higher improvements than their counterparts (F=4.156; ƿ=0.007; η2=0.316) at week 10. Conclusions: The results suggest that 6 weeks of a complementary dry-land S&C training may lead to improvements in dry-land strength. Furthermore, a 4-week adaptation period was mandatory to achieve beneficial transfer for aquatic performance. Additional benefits may occur if coaches plan the dry-land S&C training focusing on explosiveness.

Can gut microbiota analysis be beneficial for ex-situ and in-situ conservation of threatened animal species?

Ex-situ conservation and the in-situ conservation of natural habitats are the tools to conserve biodiversity. Habitats and ecosystems have been becoming altered by human activities and a growing number of species requires form of management to ensure their survival. Conservation queries become more complex and urgent. Developing scientifically based and innovative approaches to ex-situ conservation is necessary. Recent studies underline importance of gut microbiome in animal health with implications for animal conservation and management. Animal and human studies have demonstrated that environmental factors can impact gut microbiome composition. Within this scenario, the present work focused on species belonging to different taxa, reptiles and mammals: Aldabrachelys gigantea, the giant tortoise of the Seychelles islands and Indri indri, the greatest leaving lemur of Madagascar. The Seychelles giant tortoise is vulnerable species with declining population, whereas the indri is a critically endangered species that could reach the extinction within 25 years. Both need research to help them to survive. Tortoises live for very long time and to observe how they can afford the environmental changes is very difficult. Indris, instead, are able to survive only in a small area of the Madagascar forest, with a very strong link between the species’ survival and the environment. The obtained results underline importance of environmental factors, both in-situ and ex-situ, for species conservation. Microbiome could help the organisms to respond on a short timescale and cope with, environmental changes. However, species with long generation time might not be able to adapt to fast changes but bacteria with a short generation time can adapt on a shorter timescale allowing the host to cope with fluctuating environment. Gut microbiome plays an important role in an animal’s health and has the potential to improve the management of individuals under human care for conservation purposes.

Effect of ryanodine on sinus node recovery time determined in vitro

Evidence has indicated that the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) might be involved in the generation of spontaneous electrical activity in atrial pacemaker cells. We report the effect of disabling the SR with ryanodine (0.1 µM) on the sinus node recovery time (SNRT) measured in isolated right atria from 4-6-month-old male Wistar rats. Electrogram and isometric force were recorded at 36.5oC. Two methods for sinus node resetting were used: a) pulse: a single stimulus pulse interpolated at coupling intervals of 50, 65 or 80% of the regular spontaneous cycle length (RCL), and b) train: a 2-min train of pulses at intervals of 50, 65 or 80% of RCL. Corrected SNRT (cSNRT) was calculated as the difference between SNRT (first spontaneous cycle length after stimulation interruption) and RCL. Ryanodine only slightly increased RCL (<10%), but decreased developed force by 90%. When the pulse method was used, cSNRT (~40 ms), which represents intranodal/atrial conduction time, was independent of the coupling interval and unaffected by ryanodine. However, cSNRT obtained by the train method was significantly higher for shorter intervals between pulses, indicating the occurrence of overdrive suppression. In this case, ryanodine prolonged cSNRT in a rate-dependent fashion, with a greater effect at shorter intervals. These results indicate that: a) a functional SR, albeit important for force development, does not seem to play a major role in atrial automaticity in the rat; b) disruption of cell Ca2+ homeostasis by inhibition of SR function does not appear to affect conduction; however, it enhances overdrive-induced depression of sinusal automaticity.

Junction Field Effect on the Retention Time for One-Transistor Floating-Body RAM

One-transistor floating-body random access memory retention time distribution is investigated on silicon-on-insulator UTBOX devices. It is shown that the average retention time can be improved by two to three orders of magnitude by reducing the body-junction electric field. However, the retention time distribution, which is mainly caused by the generation-recombination center density variation, remains similar.

Effect of milling time on mechanical properties of fly ash incorporated cement mortars

Abstract. Currently, thermal energy generation through coal combustion produces ash particles which cause serious environmental problems and which are known as Fly Ash (FA). FA main components are oxides of silicon, aluminum, iron, calcium and magnesium in addition, toxic metals such as arsenic and cobalt. The use of fly ash as a cement replacement material increases long term strength and durability of concrete. In this work, samples were prepared by replacing cement by ground fly ash in 10, 20 and 30% by weight. The characterization of raw materials and microstructure was obtained by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The final results showed that the grinding process significantly improves the mechanical properties of all samples when compared replacing a mortar made with cement by ground fly ash and the reference samples without added fly ash. The beneficial effect of the ground fly ash can increase the use of this product in precast concrete industry

Effect of cement type and water storage time on the push-out bond strength of a glass fiber post

This study investigated the effects of the cement type and the water storage time on the push-out bond strength of a glass fiber post. Glass fiber posts (Fibrekor, Jeneric Pentron) were luted to post spaces using a self-cured resin cement (C&B Cement [CB]), a glass ionomer cement (Ketac Cem [KC]) or a resin-modified glass ionomer cement (GC FujiCEM [FC]) according to the manufacturers’ instructions. For each luting agent, the specimens were exposed to one of the following water storage times (n=5): 1 day (T1), 7 days (T7), 90 days (T90) and 180 days (T180). Push-out tests were performed after the storage times. Control specimens were not exposed to water storage, but subjected to the push-out test 10 min after post cementation. Data (in MPa) were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn`s test (α=0.05). Cement type and water storage time had a significant effect (p<0.05) on the push-out bond strength. CB showed significantly higher values of retention (p<0.05) than KC and FC, irrespective of the water storage time. Water storage increased significantly the push-out bond strength in T7 and T90, regardless of the cement type (p<0.05). The results showed that fiber posts luted to post spaces with the self-cured resin cement exhibited the best bonding performance throughout the 180-day water storage period. All cements exhibited a tendency to increase the bond strength after 7 and 90 days of water storage, decreasing thereafter.

Influence of surface sealant on the translucency of composite resin: effect of immersion time and immersion media

This study evaluated the effect of surface sealant on the translucency of composite resin immersed in different solutions. The study involved the following materials: Charisma, Fortify and coffee, Coca-Cola®, tea and artificial saliva as solutions. Sixty-four specimens (n = 8) were manufactured and immersed in artificial saliva at 37 ± 1 °C. Samples were immersed in the solutions for three times a day and re-immersed in artificial saliva until the translucency readings. The measurements were carried out at nine times: T1 - 24 hours after specimen preparation, T2 - 24 hours after immersion in the solutions, T3 - 48 hours and T4 to T9 - 7, 14, 21, 30, 60 and 90 days, respectively, after immersion. The translucency values were measured using a JOUAN device. The results were subjected to ANOVA and Tukey's test at 5%. The surface sealant was not able to protect the composite resin against staining, the coffee showed the strongest staining action, followed by tea and regarding immersion time, a significant alteration was noted in the translucency of composite resin after 21 days.

The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.