Simulating the temperature and precipitation signal in an Alpine ice core

Accumulation and delta O-18 data from Alpine ice cores provide information on past temperature and precipitation. However, their correlation with seasonal or annual mean temperature and precipitation at nearby sites is often low. This is partly due to the irregular sampling of the atmosphere by the ice core (i.e. ice cores almost only record precipitation events and not dry periods) and the possible incongruity between annual layers and calendar years. Using daily meteorological data from a nearby station and reanalyses, we replicate the ice core from the Grenzgletscher (Switzerland, 4200m a.s.l.) on a sample-by-sample basis by calculating precipitation-weighted temperature (PWT) over short intervals. Over the last 15 yr of the ice core record, accumulation and delta O-18 variations can be well reproduced on a sub-seasonal scale. This allows a wiggle-matching approach for defining quasi-annual layers, resulting in high correlations between measured quasi-annual delta O-18 and PWT. Further back in time, the agreement deteriorates. Nevertheless, we find significant correlations over the entire length of the record (1938-1993) of ice core delta O-18 with PWT, but not with annual mean temperature. This is due to the low correlations between PWT and annual mean temperature, a characteristic which in ERA-Interim reanalysis is also found for many other continental mid-to-high-latitude regions. The fact that meteorologically very different years can lead to similar combinations of PWT and accumulation poses limitations to the use of delta O-18 from Alpine ice cores for temperature reconstructions. Rather than for reconstructing annual mean temperature, delta O-18 from Alpine ice cores should be used to reconstruct PWT over quasi-annual periods. This variable is reproducible in reanalysis or climate model data and could thus be assimilated into conventional climate models.

How Preliminary Are Preliminary Decisions?

The present research focuses on the question of whether even a preliminary decision causes a confirmation bias in order to maintain the status quo and examines individual differences in consistency between the preliminary and final decision and biased information processing. Dispositional Need for Closure (NFC, Webster & Kruglanski, 1994) was expected to predict revision or maintenance of the preliminary decision (decision consistency) after additional information on the issue was searched for and evaluated. Participants higher on dispositional NFC were less likely to change their preliminary decision than participants lower on dispositional NFC. Furthermore, the effect of NFC on decision consistency was fully mediated by biased information evaluation following the preliminary decision.

Der Zusammenhang zwischen Belästigung des Ex-Partners, Trennungskontext, Bindungsstil und Commitment gegenüber der Beziehung

Die vorliegende Studie untersuchte via online-Befragung den Zusammenhang zwischen Ex-Partner-Belästigung und Trennungskontext, Bindungsstil sowie Commitment. Es wurde erwartet, dass jene Männer, die von ihrer Ex-Partnerin verlassen worden sind, eher zu Belästigungsverhalten gegenüber dieser tendieren als jene, die die Beziehung selber beendet haben. Des Weiteren wurde ein positiver Zusammenhang zwischen Belästigungsverhalten und ängstlicher Bindung erwartet. Schliesslich wurde erstmalig eine positive Beziehung zwischen Belästigungsverhalten und Commitment gegenüber der Beziehung postuliert. Für die Analysen wurden die Daten einer für die Universität Bern repräsentativen Stichprobe von männlichen Studenten und Doktoranden (N = 140) untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass insbesondere Commitment ein guter Prädiktor für Ex-Partner-Belästigung ist und dass der verlassene Partner zu mehr solchen stalkingähnlichen Verhaltensweisen neigt als der, der den Partner verlassen hat. Ebenfalls konnte eine Beziehung zwischen ängstlicher Bindung und Ex-Partner-Belästigung gefunden werden.