Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

Identification and specification of relationships as the foundation for service bundling

Service bundling can be regarded as an option for service providers to strengthen their competitive advantages, cope with dynamic market conditions and heterogeneous consumer demand. Despite these positive effects, actual guidance for the identification of service bundles and the act of bundling itself can be regarded as a gap. Previous research has resulted in a conceptualization of a service bundling method relying on a structured service description in order to fill this gap. This method addresses the reasoning about the suitability of services to be part of a bundle based on analyzing existing relationships between services captured by a description language. This paper extends the aforementioned research by presenting an initial set of empirically derived relationships between services in existing bundles that can subsequently be utilized to identify potential new bundles. Additionally, a gap analysis points out to what extent prominent ontologies and service description languages accommodate for the identified relationships.

Universal online interventions might engage psychologically distressed university students who are unlikely to seek formal help

University students are a high risk population for mental health problems, yet few seek professional help when experiencing problems. This study explored the potential role of an online intervention for promoting wellbeing in university students, by investigating students' help-seeking behaviour, intention to use online interventions and student content preference for such interventions; 254 university students responded to an online survey designed for this study. As predicted, students were less likely to seek help as levels of psychological distress increased. Conversely, intention to use an online intervention increased at higher levels of distress, with 39.1%, 49.4% and 57.7% of low, moderate and severely distressed students respectively indicating they would use an online program supporting student well-being. Results suggest that online interventions may be a useful way to provide help to students in need who otherwise may not seek formal help.

When sparks fly : developing formal mentoring programs for the career development of young and emerging artists

Formal mentoring programs are accepted as a valuable strategy for developing young and emerging artists. This thesis presents the results of an evaluation of the SPARK National Young Artists Mentoring Program (SPARK). SPARK was a ten-month formal mentoring program managed by Youth Arts Queensland (YAQ) on behalf of the Australia Council for the Arts from 2003-2009. The program aimed to assist young and emerging Australian artists between the ages of 18-26 to establish a professional career in the arts. It was a highly successful formal arts mentoring program that facilitated 58 mentorships between young and emerging artists and professional artists from across Australia in five program rounds over its seven year lifespan. Interest from other cultural organisations looking to develop their own formal mentoring programs encouraged YAQ to commission this research to determine how the program works to achieve its effects. This study was conducted with young and emerging artists who participated in SPARK from 2003 to 2008. It took a theory-driven evaluation approach to examine SPARK as an example of what makes formal arts mentoring programs effective. It focused on understanding the program’s theory or how the program worked to achieve its desired outcomes. The program activities and assumed responses to program activities were mapped out in a theories of change model. This theoretical framework was then used to plan the points for data collection. Through the process of data collection, actual program developments were compared to the theoretical framework to see what occurred as expected and what did not. The findings were then generalised for knowledge and wider application. The findings demonstrated that SPARK was a successful and effective program and an exemplar model of a formal mentoring program preparing young and emerging artists for professional careers in the arts. They also indicate several ways in which this already strong program could be further improved, including: looking at the way mentoring relationships are set up and how the mentoring process is managed; considering the balance between artistic and professional development; developing career development competencies and networking skills; taking into account the needs of young and emerging artists to develop their professional identity and build confidence; and giving more thought to the desired program outcomes and considering the issue of timeliness and readiness for career transition. From these findings, together with principles outlined in the mentoring and career development literature, a number of necessary conditions have been identified for developing effective mentoring programs in the career development of young and emerging artists.

Automated proof for formal indistinguishability and its applications

Bana et al. proposed the relation formal indistinguishability (FIR), i.e. an equivalence between two terms built from an abstract algebra. Later Ene et al. extended it to cover active adversaries and random oracles. This notion enables a framework to verify computational indistinguishability while still offering the simplicity and formality of symbolic methods. We are in the process of making an automated tool for checking FIR between two terms. First, we extend the work by Ene et al. further, by covering ordered sorts and simplifying the way to cope with random oracles. Second, we investigate the possibility of combining algebras together, since it makes the tool scalable and able to cover a wide class of cryptographic schemes. Specially, we show that the combined algebra is still computationally sound, as long as each algebra is sound. Third, we design some proving strategies and implement the tool. Basically, the strategies allow us to find a sequence of intermediate terms, which are formally indistinguishable, between two given terms. FIR between the two given terms is then guaranteed by the transitivity of FIR. Finally, we show applications of the work, e.g. on key exchanges and encryption schemes. In the future, the tool should be extended easily to cover many schemes. This work continues previous research of ours on use of compilers to aid in automated proofs for key exchange.

To bound or not to bound: preliminary Theory of Time Bounds Specification in strategic alliances

This article augments Resource Dependence Theory with Real Options reasoning in order to explain time bounds specification in strategic alliances. Whereas prior work has found about a 50/50 split between alliances that are time bound and those that are open-ended, their substantive differences and antecedents are ill understood. To address this, we suggest that the two alliance modes present different real options trade-offs in adaptation to environmental uncertainty: ceteris paribus, time-bound alliances are likely to provide abandonment options over open-ended alliances, but require additional investments to extend the alliance when this turns out to be desirable after formation. Open-ended alliances are likely to provide growth options over open-ended alliances, but they demand additional effort to abandon the alliance if post-formation circumstances so desire. Therefore, we expect time bounds specification to be a function of environmental uncertainty: organizations in more uncertain environments will be relatively more likely to place time bounds on their strategic alliances. Longitudinal archival and survey data collected amongst 39 industry clusters provides empirical support for our claims, which contribute to the recent renaissance of resource dependence theory by specifying the conditions under which organizations choose different time windows in strategic partnering.

Grassroots leaders: Reclaiming 'Native Leadership' as content for enhancing formal leadership preparation

It is almost a truism that persons who occupy formal bureaucratic positions in schools may not actually be leaders if they were not role incumbents in a bureaucracy. It is also clear from studies of grassroots leaders that without the qualities of skills of leadership no one would follow them because they have no formal, hierarchical role upon which others were dependent to them. One of the reasons for re-examining the nature of grassroots leaders is to attempt to recapture those tactics or strategies which might be reconceptualized and utilized within more formal settings so that role dependent leadership becomes more effectual and trustworthy than one that is totally dependent on role authority. This reasoning is especially a critical need if there is a desire to work towards more democratic and collaborative working arrangements between leaders and followers, and where more flexible and dynamic relationships promise higher levels of commitment and productivity. Hecksher (1994) speaks of such a reconceptualization as part of a shift from an emphasis on power to one centered on influence. This paper examines the nature of leadership before it was subjected to positivistic science and later behavioural studies. This move follows the advice of Heilbrunn (1996) who trenchantly observed that for leadership studies to grow as a discipline, “it will have to cast a wider net” (p.11). Willis et. Al. (2008) make a similar point when they lament that social scientist have forced favoured understanding bureaucracies rather than grassroots community organizations, yet much can be gained by being aware of the tactics and strategies used by grassroots leaders who depend on influence as opposed to power. This paper, then, aims to do this by posing a tentative model of grassroots leadership and then considering how this model might inform and be used by those responsible for developing school leaders.

Privacy compliance verification in cryptographic protocols

To provide privacy protection, cryptographic primitives are frequently applied to communication protocols in an open environment (e.g. the Internet). We call these protocols privacy enhancing protocols (PEPs) which constitute a class of cryptographic protocols. Proof of the security properties, in terms of the privacy compliance, of PEPs is desirable before they can be deployed. However, the traditional provable security approach, though well-established for proving the security of cryptographic primitives, is not applicable to PEPs. We apply the formal language of Coloured Petri Nets (CPNs) to construct an executable specification of a representative PEP, namely the Private Information Escrow Bound to Multiple Conditions Protocol (PIEMCP). Formal semantics of the CPN specification allow us to reason about various privacy properties of PIEMCP using state space analysis techniques. This investigation provides insights into the modelling and analysis of PEPs in general, and demonstrates the benefit of applying a CPN-based formal approach to the privacy compliance verification of PEPs.