International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

Female employment from the household. Towards a comprehensive analysis of work-life articulation

Research on women’s employment has proliferated over recent decades, often under a perspective that conceptualizes female labour market activity as independent of male presences and absences in the productive and reproductive spheres. In the face of these approaches, the article argues the need to focus on the couple as the unit of analysis of work-life articulation. After referring to the main theoretical arguments that, from a gender perspective within labour studies, have pointed out the relevance of placing the household as the central space for the analysis of the sexual division of labour, the article reviews different empirical contributions that have incorporated such perspective in the international literature. Next, the state of the art in the Spanish literature is presented, before arguing the desirability of applying such framework of analysis to the study of employment and care work in Spanish households, which are at present undergoing major transformations.

Hotel Profit Implications from Rising Wages and Inflation in the U.S.

Macroeconomic models based on the Phillips Curve predict that as the unemployment rate declines toward the long-run, natural rate, the pace of wage and price growth accelerates and inflation rises.1 In this paper I analyze the profitability prospects for the U.S. hotel industry in today’s relatively volatile economic environment, keeping in mind the Phillips Curve’s general principle that inflation and employment have an inverse, but relatively stable short-term relationship. Although employment and economic growth in the U.S. have been uneven in recent months, the unemployment rate has declined to less than 5 percent, which many economists believe is close to the natural rate. Growth in wages and salaries, as measured by the Employment Cost Index, has concurrently been moving upward between 2.5 and 3.0 percent during the past 12 months. At the same time, general inflation remains below levels that might typically be expected this late in the cycle, although core inflation is bumping up against the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. If the inflation rate continues to move upward as predicted by Phillips Curve models (and encouraged by the Federal Reserve), rising labor costs and other expenses will exert downward pressure on U.S. business profits. Backward movement up the Phillips Curve (with greater inflation) coincides with an expanding economy. In that scenario, prices of goods and services also will rise in real terms if their supply cannot keep up with demand, and producers have the ability to raise prices (absent fixed-price contracts such as leases).

The federal farm loan system, new method of farm mortgage finance, under national supervision; a practial manual upon organizing and conducting national farm loan associations, also joint stock land banks. Showing how farmers, investors, bankers and the public may obtain the fullest benefit of the system.

Mode of access: Internet.

The Federal home loan banks in the housing finance system.

"July 1993"--Cover.

Conserving the nation's coasts and estuaries : a strategic plan for the National Estuarine Research Reserve System : a state and federal partnership.

Mode of access: Internet.

Proposed repeal of the Federal home loan bank act : hearings ... Seventy-third Congress, first session, on S. 6, a bill to repeal an act entitled "An act to create federal home-loan banks, to provide for the supervision thereof, and for other purposes," approved July 22, 1932.

Pt.1. March 22, 23, 1933. 74 p.--pt.2. March 29, 1933. 96 p.

Creation of a system of Federal home loan banks.

Mode of access: Internet.

The federal farm loan system, new method of farm mortgage finance, under national supervision; a practical manual upon organizing and conducting national farm loan associations, also joint stock land banks... /

Mode of access: Internet.

Using forecasts to protect Federal facilities in the path of Hurricane Isabel

Hurricane Isabel made landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane on 18 September 2003, on the North Carolina Outer Banks between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras, then coursed northwestward through Pamlico Sound and west of Chesapeake Bay where it downgraded to a tropical storm. Wind damage on the west and southwest shores of Pamlico Sound and the western shore of Chesapeake Bay was moderate, but major damage resulted from the storm tide. The NOAA, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Sciences, Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research at Beaufort, North Carolina and the Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomedical Research Branch at Oxford, Maryland have hurricane preparedness plans in place. These plans call for tropical storms and hurricanes to be tracked carefully through NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) watches, warnings, and advisories. When a hurricane watch changes to a hurricane warning for the areas of Beaufort or Oxford, documented hurricane preparation plans are activated. Isabel exacted some wind damage at both Beaufort and Oxford. Storm tide caused damage at Oxford, where area-wide flooding isolated the laboratory for many hours. Storm tide also caused damage at Beaufort. Because of their geographic locations on or near the open ocean (Beaufort) or on or near large estuaries (Beaufort and Oxford), storm tide poses a major threat to these NOAA facilities and the safety of federal employees. Damage from storm surge and windblown water depends on the track and intensity of a storm. One tool used to predict storm surge is the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model of the NWS, which provides valuable surge forecasts that aid in hurricane preparation.

Políticas de acão afirmativa, novo ingrediente na luta pela democratização do ensino superior: a experiência da Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto

Desde longa data, o ensino superior brasileiro vem sendo alvo de muita polêmica e questionamentos por causa, principalmente, da questão da sua democratização. A origem tardia da universidade brasileira, associada ao caráter elitista, faz com que este nível de escolarização esteja sendo questionado sempre pela incapacidade de absorver toda a demanda existente. Visando a superação dessa situação, lutas históricas foram e vêm sendo travadas, importantes intelectuais, o movimento estudantil, as associações de docentes e de técnicos em educação, cada um a seu modo, vem cobrando a abertura da universidade pública a setores da sociedade até então dela excluídos. Neste ínterim, tem sido importante a contribuição dos movimentos sociais negros que introduziram nesse debate a exigência de políticas de ação afirmativa (PAA), com vista à inclusão desse segmento no ensino superior público. Portanto a PAA figura como um novo ingrediente na luta pela democratização do ensino superior. A reivindicação pelas ações afirmativas ganhou espaço e relevância, ao ponto de ser reconhecida pelo governo e traduzida em posicionamento favorável do Brasil na Conferência de Durban de 2001. A partir de então, o debate aprofundou no país. Como resultado, diversas instituições de ensino superior (IES), por força de leis ou motivadas por decisões de seus conselhos superiores, adotam alguma modalidade de política de ação afirmativa: cota, reserva de vaga, bônus, etc. Nesse contexto, a Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, no ano de 2008, por meio do seu Conselho de Ensino, Pesquisa e Extensão (CEPE), decidiu assegurar que30% das vagas, em cada um dos seus cursos de graduação, deveriam ser ocupadas por estudantes egressos de escolas públicas. A Política de Ação Afirmativa da UFOP é, portanto,o objeto de estudo dessa dissertação, que procurou identificar se tal medida pode ser considerada uma contribuição para o processo de democratização do ensino superior. A pesquisa realizada analisou o perfil socioeconômico e cultural e a trajetória acadêmica de estudantes que ingressaram na UFOP no ano de 2009, considerando-se a sua condição de participante ou não da PAA. A constatação foi a de que, ainda que modestamente e a despeito da necessidade de ajustes que a mesma possa requerer, o perfil dos estudantes da UFOP vem se alterando: pessoas oriundas de segmentos antes pouco representados estão se beneficiando com a ampliação dos cursos de graduação da instituição

Eurozone as home country of banks. CEPS Commentary, 2 July 2012

The euro area summit has managed to surprise the markets once again. By moving banking supervision of the eurozone to the European Central Bank, a huge step towards a more federal banking model has been taken, explains CEPS CEO Karel Lannoo in this new Commentary. But will this move be enough to re-establish confidence, bolster the euro interbank market and further financial integration?

Effects of species turnover on reserve site selection in a fragmented landscape

Changes in species composition is an important process in many ecosystems but rarely considered in systematic reserve site selection. To test the influence of temporal variability in species composition on the establishment of a reserve network, we compared network configurations based on species data of small mammals and frogs sampled during two consecutive years in a fragmented Atlantic Forest landscape (SE Brazil). Site selection with simulated annealing was carried out with the datasets of each single year and after merging the datasets of both years. Site selection resulted in remarkably divergent network configurations. Differences are reflected in both the identity of the selected fragments and in the amount of flexibility and irreplaceability in network configuration. Networks selected when data for both years were merged did not include all sites that were irreplaceable in one of the 2 years. Results of species number estimation revealed that significant changes in the composition of the species community occurred. Hence, temporal variability of community composition should be routinely tested and considered in systematic reserve site selection in dynamic systems.

Effects of the real plan of the Brazilian banking system

The aim of this paper is to assess the progress of the banking sector before and shortly after the Real Plan. We began by assessing the drop in the inflation revenues (negative real interest rates paid by the excess of demand deposits over total reserve requirements) as a result of the change in inflation from 40% a month for the pre-Real Plan period to a monthly average of 3.65% (IGP-DI), between July 1994 and May 1995. Then, using the financial statement data of a group of 90 banks, we attempt to estimate the net losses due to the inflation drop analyzing the profitability and other parameters of the banking industry. The calculations are made separately for private, state and federal banks. A later analysis on performance using information given to CVM (Securities Exchange Commission) by the six major private banks in the country is also discussed herein.