Uncertainties in 4pi-gamma coincidence counting

The 4πβ-γ coincidence counting method and its close relatives are widely used for the primary standardization of radioactivity. Both the general formalism and specific implementation of these methods have been well-documented. In particular, previous papers contain the extrapolation equations used for various decay schemes, methods for determining model parameters and, in some cases, tabulated uncertainty budgets. Two things often lacking from experimental reports are both the rationale for estimating uncertainties in a specific way and the details of exactly how a specific component of uncertainty was estimated. Furthermore, correlations among the components of uncertainty are rarely mentioned. To fill in these gaps, the present article shares the best-practices from a few practitioners of this craft. We explain and demonstrate with examples of how these approaches can be used to estimate the uncertainty of the reported massic activity. We describe uncertainties due to measurement variability, extrapolation functions, dead-time and resolving-time effects, gravimetric links, and nuclear and atomic data. Most importantly, a thorough understanding of the measurement system and its response to the decay under study can be used to derive a robust estimate of the measurement uncertainty.

Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change

Climate change affects the rate of insect invasions as well as the abundance, distribution and impacts of such invasions on a global scale. Among the principal analytical approaches to predicting and understanding future impacts of biological invasions are Species Distribution Models (SDMs), typically in the form of correlative Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). An underlying assumption of ENMs is that species-environment relationships remain preserved during extrapolations in space and time, although this is widely criticised. The semi-mechanistic modelling platform, CLIMEX, employs a top-down approach using species ecophysiological traits and is able to avoid some of the issues of extrapolation, making it highly applicable to investigating biological invasions in the context of climate change. The tephritid fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) comprise some of the most successful invasive species and serious economic pests around the world. Here we project 12 tephritid species CLIMEX models into future climate scenarios to examine overall patterns of climate suitability and forecast potential distributional changes for this group. We further compare the aggregate response of the group against species-specific responses. We then consider additional drivers of biological invasions to examine how invasion potential is influenced by climate, fruit production and trade indices. Considering the group of tephritid species examined here, climate change is predicted to decrease global climate suitability and to shift the cumulative distribution poleward. However, when examining species-level patterns, the predominant directionality of range shifts for 11 of the 12 species is eastward. Most notably, management will need to consider regional changes in fruit fly species invasion potential where high fruit production, trade indices and predicted distributions of these flies overlap.

Radio continuum and near-ingrared study of the MGRO J2019+37 region

Context. MGRO J2019+37 is an unidentified extended source of very high energy gamma-rays originally reported by the Milagro Collaboration as the brightest TeV source in the Cygnus region. Its extended emission could be powered by either a single or several sources. The GeV pulsar AGL J2020.5+3653, discovered by AGILE and associated with PSR J2021+3651, could contribute to the emission from MGRO J2019+37. Our aim is to identify radio and near-infrared sources in the field of the extended TeV source MGRO J2019+37, and study potential counterparts to explain its emission. Methods: We surveyed a region of about 6 square degrees with the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) at the frequency 610 MHz. We also observed the central square degree of this survey in the near-infrared Ks-band using the 3.5 m telescope in Calar Alto. Archival X-ray observations of some specific fields are included. VLBI observations of an interesting radio source were performed. We explored possible scenarios to produce the multi-TeV emission from MGRO J2019+37 and studied which of the sources could be the main particle accelerator. Results: We present a catalogue of 362 radio sources detected with the GMRT in the field of MGRO J2019+37, and the results of a cross-correlation of this catalog with one obtained at near-infrared wavelengths, which contains ∼3 × 105 sources, as well as with available X-ray observations of the region. Some peculiar sources inside the ∼1◦ uncertainty region of the TeV emission from MGRO J2019+37 are discussed in detail, including the pulsar PSR J2021+3651 and its pulsar wind nebula PWN G75.2+0.1, two new radio-jet sources, the Hii region Sh 2-104 containing two star clusters, and the radio source NVSS J202032+363158. We also find that the hadronic scenario is the most likely in case of a single accelerator, and discuss the possible contribution from the sources mentioned above. Conclusions: Although the radio and GeV pulsar PSR J2021+3651 / AGL J2020.5+3653 and its associated pulsar wind nebula PWN G75.2+0.1 can contribute to the emission from MGRO J2019+37, extrapolation of the GeV spectrum does not explain the detected multi-TeV flux. Other sources discussed here could contribute to the emission of the Milagro source

Análise térmica aplicada a fármacos e formulações farmacêuticas na indústria farmacêutica

Several matters of the pharmaceutical demonstrate the great importance of thermal analysis application, especially TG and DSC for the pharmaceutical industry future, namely: characterization of the drugs with the thermal events definition, in studies of drug purity, in the polymorphs identification, in compatibility studies of solid dosage pharmaceutical formulations, in drugs and pharmaceutical formulations thermal stability, and in determination of shelf life for isothermal degradation kinetics by extrapolation using the Arrhenius equation. Thus, the test results obtained from thermal analysis are directly related to the quality of a pharmaceutical product, whether the stability or bioavailability of the pharmaceutical product.

Demographic Modelling of Human Population Growth

This work presents models and methods that have been used in producing forecasts of population growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population models are presented. References to literature and several studies are given. A lot of relevant methodology has been developed in biological sciences. The Leslie modelling approach involves the use of current trends in mortality,fertility, migration and emigration. The model treats population divided in age groups and the model is given as a recursive system. Other group of models is based on straightforward extrapolation of census data. Trajectories of simple exponential growth function and logistic models are used to produce the forecast. The work presents the basics of Leslie type modelling and the logistic models, including multi- parameter logistic functions. The latter model is also analysed from model reliability point of view. Bayesian approach and MCMC method are used to create error bounds of the model predictions.

Notes on Emerging Technologies

This dissertation considers the impact of technology foresight in innovation within the context of a technology driven development. The main hypothesis made was that by using different methods of foresight in the industry level significant value could be created. The question was approached through a case study in portable fuel cell technology. The theoretical background of the study draws from Innovation, Product Development, Management of Technology, and Technology Foresight. The connection within the topics is made by analyzing foresight, not in a policy view as often done in Europe, but in a micro-level. Focusing mostly on how a technology driven development scenario could be analyzed. The study is based on a bibliometric, extrapolation and patent analysis within the context of a case study. In addition, a large two-year Delphi study was conducted. The study was finalized with a scenario work on the future possibilities of the case study technology. Original publications also consider several methodological issues. In the context of the case study, the study questions the practicality of establishing a portable fuel cell technology in Finland showing several impractical assumptions has been made. In a more conceptual level, the study makes notions on two underlying factors: policy-push technologies and growth of data. Policy-push questions in which level a policy effort towards a single technology is practical. The European foresight effort is more directed towards policy decisions in contrast to US foresight, which is to some extent corporate driven. Although the policy-based foresight has produced significant results in the European context, policy led efforts towards a single technology are challenging. Growth of data argues on the challenges produced by the large-scale application of quantitative measures of foresight. Bibliometric studies and trend extrapolations have been taken advantage of the increasing number of databases made available, and used these as the basis for forecasts. However, the relationship with actual development and quantitative evidence is still unproven.

Eri laskentamenetelmien vertailu hitsatun rakenteen väsymislaskennassa

Tässä työssä tutkittiin eri mitoitusmenetelmien soveltuvuutta hitsattujen rakenteiden vä-symislaskennassa. Käytetyt menetelmät olivat rakenteellinen jännityksen menetelmä, te-hollisen lovijännityksen menetelmä ja murtumismekaniikka. Lisäksi rakenteellisen jänni-tyksen määrittämiseksi käytettiin kolmea eri menetelmää. Menetelmät olivat pintaa pitkin ekstrapolointi, paksuuden yli linearisointi ja Dongin menetelmä. Väsymiskestävyys määritettiin kahdelle hitsiliitoksen yksityiskohdalle. Laskenta tehtiin käyttäen elementtimenetelmää rakenteen 3D-mallille. Tutkittavasta aggregaattirungosta oli olemassa FE-malli mutta alimallinnustekniikkaa hyödyntämällä pystyttiin yksityiskohtai-semmin tutkimaan vain pientä osaa koko rungon mallista. Rakenteellisen jännityksen menetelmä perustuu nimellisiin jännityksiin. Kyseinen mene-telmä ei vaadi geometrian muokkausta. Yleensä rakenteellisen jännityksen menetelmää käytetään hitsin rajaviivan väsymislaskennassa, mutta joissain tapauksissa sitä on käytetty juuren puolen laskennassa. Tässä työssä rakenteellisen jännityksen menetelmää käytettiin myös juuren puolen tutkimisessa. Tehollista lovijännitystä tutkitaan mallintamalla 1 mm fiktiiviset pyöristykset sekä rajaviivalle että juuren puolelle. Murtumismekaniikan so-veltuvuutta tutkittiin käyttämällä Franc2D särön kasvun simulointiohjelmaa. Väsymislaskennan tulokset eivät merkittävästi poikkea eri laskentamenetelmien välillä. Ainoastaan rakenteellisen jännityksen Dongin menetelmällä saadaan poikkeavia tuloksia. Tämä johtuu pääasiassa siitä, että menetelmän laskentaetäisyydestä ei ole tietoa. Raken-teellisen jännityksen menetelmällä, tehollisen lovijännityksen menetelmällä ja murtumis-mekaniikalla saadaan samansuuntaiset tulokset. Suurin ero menetelmien välillä on mal-linnuksen ja laskennan vaatima työmäärä.

FE-analyysin soveltaminen S960 QC teräksisen I-profiilin äärikestävyyden määrittämisessä

Tässä työssä tutkittiin FE-analyysin soveltamista S960 QC teräksisen I-profiilin kestävyyden määrittämisessä. Työn tavoitteena oli tarkastella nykyisten suunnitteluohjeiden soveltuvuutta ultralujille teräksille ja koota ohjemateriaali I-profiilin optimoimisesta sekä FE-analyysin hyö-dyntämisestä I-profiilin staattisen ja dynaamisen kestävyyden määrittämisessä. I-profiili mitoitettiin ja optimoitiin Eurokoodi 3:ssa esitettyjen PL3 mukaisten mitoitusohjeiden avulla. Rakenteelle suoritettiin Eurokoodi 3:n ja IIW:n mukaiset lommahdus-, kiepahdus- ja vä-symiskestävyystarkastelut. Väsymistarkastelussa sovellettiin nimellisen jännityksen, rakenteelli-sen jännityksen ja tehollisen lovijännityksen menetelmiä sekä murtumismekaniikkaa. Rakenteel-lisen jännityksen menetelmässä sovellettiin lisäksi lineaarista ja parabolista pintaa pitkin ekstra-polointia, paksuuden yli linearisointia sekä Dong:in menetelmää. Lommahdus-, kiepahdus- ja väsymistarkasteluissa hyödynnettiin analyyttistä laskentaa, FE-analyysiä sekä Frank2d sovellusta. Tarkastelujen perusteella voidaan todeta, että analyyttisillä menetelmillä saadaan numeerisia me-netelmiä varmemmalla puolella olevia tuloksia. Lommahdustarkastelussa ero tulosten välillä on suurimmillaan 8 % ja kiepahdustarkastelussa suurimmillaan 20 % mutta väsymistarkastelussa saadut tulokset eroavat keskenään huomattavasti. Väsymistarkastelussa tehollisen lovijännityksen menetelmällä sekä rakenteellisen jännityksen menetelmän Dong:in menetelmällä saadaan huo-mattavasti muita menetelmiä pidempiä kestoikiä, kun taas yksinkertaisemmilla menetelmillä saa-dut kestoiät ovat lyhyempiä. Rakenteen kestävyyden määrittäminen analyyttisillä menetelmillä on melko helppoa, mutta tu-lokset ovat monesti liian konservatiivisia. FE-analyysillä saadaan puolestaan hyvin tarkkoja tu-loksia mallin ollessa yksityiskohtainen. Mallintaminen on kuitenkin aikaa ja resursseja vievää ja vaatii käyttökokemusta. FE-analyysin mahdolliset hyödyt on aina arvioitava tapauskohtaisesti tarkasteltavan geometrian, kuormitusten ja reunaehtojen perusteella.

Linear prediction in optical spectroscopy

A linear prediction procedure is one of the approved numerical methods of signal processing. In the field of optical spectroscopy it is used mainly for extrapolation known parts of an optical signal in order to obtain a longer one or deduce missing signal samples. The first is needed particularly when narrowing spectral lines for the purpose of spectral information extraction. In the present paper the coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) spectra were under investigation. The spectra were significantly distorted by the presence of nonlinear nonresonant background. In addition, line shapes were far from Gaussian/Lorentz profiles. To overcome these disadvantages the maximum entropy method (MEM) for phase spectrum retrieval was used. The obtained broad MEM spectra were further underwent the linear prediction analysis in order to be narrowed.

The attentional modulation of the flash-lag effect

If a dot is flashed in perfect alignment with a pair of dots rotating around the visual fixation point, most observers perceive the rotating dots as being ahead of the flashing dot (flash-lag effect). This perceptual effect has been interpreted to result from the perceptual extrapolation of the moving dots, the differential visual latencies between flashing and moving stimuli, as well as the modulation of attentional mechanisms. Here we attempted to uncouple the attentional effects brought about by the spatial predictability of the flashing dot from the sensory effects dependent on its visual eccentricity. The stimulus was a pair of dots rotating clockwise around the fixation point. Another dot was flashed at either the upper right or the lower left of the visual field according to three separate blocked situations: fixed, alternate and random positions. Twenty-four participants had to judge, in all three situations, the location of the rotating dots in relation to the imaginary line connecting the flashing dot and the fixation point at the moment the dot was flashed. The flash-lag effect was observed in all three situations, and a clear influence of the spatial predictability of the flashing dot on the magnitude of the perceptual phenomenon was revealed, independently of sensory effects related to the eccentricity of the stimulus in the visual field. These findings are consistent with our proposal that, in addition to sensory factors, the attentional set modulates the magnitude of the differential latencies that give rise to the flash-lag phenomenon.

Pitfalls in the assessment of murine atherosclerosis

This review provides examples of the fact that different procedures for the measurement of atherosclerosis in mice may lead to interpretation of the extent of atherosclerosis having markedly different biological and clinical significance for humans: 1) aortic cholesterol measurement is highly sensitive for the detection of early and advanced atherosclerosis lesions, but misses the identification of the location and complexity of these lesions that are so critical for humans; 2) the histological analysis of the aortic root lesions in simvastatin-treated and control mice reveals similar lesion morphology in spite of the remarkable simvastatin-induced reduction of the aortic cholesteryl ester content; 3) in histological analyses, chemical fixation and inclusion may extract the tissue fat and also shrink and distort tissue structures. Thus, the method may be less sensitive for the detection of slight differences among the experimental groups, unless a more suitable procedure employing physical fixation with histological sample freezing using optimal cutting temperature and liquid nitrogen is employed. Thus, when measuring experimental atherosclerosis in mice, investigators should be aware of several previously unreported pitfalls regarding the extent, location and complexity of the arterial lesion that may not be suitable for extrapolation to human pathology.

Far infrared spectroscopy of heavy fermion superconductor CeCoIn5

The optical response to far infrared radiation has been measured on a mosaic of heavy fermion CeColnssingle crystals. The superconducting transition temperature of the crystals has been determined by van der Pauw resistivity and ac-susceptibility measurements as Tc = 2.3 K. The optical measurements were taken above and below the transition temperature using a 3He cryostat and step and integrate Martin-Puplett type polarizing interferometer. The absolute reflectance of the heavy fermion CeColns in the superconducting state in range (0, 100)cm-1 was calculated from the measured thermal reflectance, using the normal state data of Singley et al and a low frequency extrapolation for a metallic material in the Hagen-Rubens regime. By means of Kramers-Kronig analysis the absolute reflectance was used to calculate the optical conductivity of the sample. The real part of the calculated complex conductivity 0-(w) ofCeColns indicates a possible opening of an energy gap close to 50 em-I.

Far infrared spectroscopy of heavy fermion superconductor CeCoIn5 /

The optical response to far infrared radiation has been measured on a mosaic of heavy fermion CeCoIns single crystals. The superconducting transition temperature of the crystals has been determined by van der Pauw resistivity and ac-susceptibility measurements as Tc = 2.3 K. The optical measurements were taken above and below the transition temperature using a ^He cryostat and step and integrate Martin-Puplett type polarizing interferometer. The absolute reflectance of the heavy fermion CeCoIns in the superconducting state in range (0, 100)cm~^ was calculated from the measured thermal reflectance, using the normal state data of Singley et al and a low frequency extrapolation for a metallic material in the Hagen-Rubens regime. By means of Kramers-Kronig analysis the absolute reflectance was used to calculate the optical conductivity of the sample. The real part of the calculated complex conductivity a{u)) of CeCoIns indicates a possible opening of an energy gap close to 50 cm~^.

The Influence of Male Diet on Life History Traits of Female Mosquitoes

In the field, mosquitoes characteristically feed on sugars soon after emergence and intermittently during their adult lives. Sugar meals are commonly derived from plant nectar and homopteran honeydew, and without them, adults can only survive for a few days on larval reserves. In addition to sugar, females of most species rely on blood for the initiation and maintenance of egg development; thus their reproductive success depends to some extent on the availability of blood hosts. Males, on the other hand, feed exclusively on sugars. Consequently, their sexual maturation and reproductive success is largely dependent upon access to sugar sources. Plant nectar and homopteran honeydew are the two main sugar sources utilized by mosquitoes in the wild. Previous laboratory studies had shown that differences between nectar sources can affect the survivorship and biting frequency of disease vectoring mosquitoes. However, little is known on how sugar composition influence the reproductive processes in male mosquitoes. Male mosquitoes transfer accessory gland proteins and other hormones to their mates along with sperm during mating. In the female, these seminal fluid constituents exert their influence on reproductive genes that control ovulation and vitellogenesis. The present study tests the hypothesis that the mates of males consuming different sugar meals will exhibit varying levels of induction of vitellogenin (a gene which regulates the expression of egg yolk precursor proteins). Real-time quantitative RT-PCR was used to investigate how each sugar meal indirectly influences vitellogenin mRNA abundance in female Anopheles stephensi following mating. Results indicate that mates of nectar-fed males exhibit 2-fold greater change in vitellogenin expression than the mates of honeydew-fed males. However, this response did not occur in non-blood fed controls. These findings suggest that the stimulatory effect of mating on vitellogenesis in blood meal-reliant (i.e. anautogenous) mosquitoes may only be synergistic in nature. The present study also sought to compare the potential fitness costs of mating incurred by females that do not necessarily require a blood meal to initiate a reproductive cycle (i.e., exhibit autogeny). Females of the facultatively autogenous mosquito, Culex molestus were allowed to mate with males sustained on either nectar or honedyew. Mean lifetime fecundity and survivorship of females under the two different mating regimes were then recorded. Additionally, one-dimensional gel electrophoresis was used to verify the transfer of male accessory gland proteins to the sperm storage organs of females during mating.While there was no significant difference in survival between the test treatments, the mates of nectar-fed males produced 11% more eggs on average than mates of honeydew-fed males. However, additional data are needed to justify the extrapolation of these findings to natural settings. These findings prompt further investigation as the differences caused by diet variation in males may be reflected across other life history traits such as mating frequency and insemination capacity.

Optimal and Robust Designs of Step-stress Accelerated Life Testing Experiments for Proportional Hazards Models

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is widely used to obtain reliability information about a product within a limited time frame. The Cox s proportional hazards (PH) model is often utilized for reliability prediction. My master thesis research focuses on designing accelerated life testing experiments for reliability estimation. We consider multiple step-stress ALT plans with censoring. The optimal stress levels and times of changing the stress levels are investigated. We discuss the optimal designs under three optimality criteria. They are D-, A- and Q-optimal designs. We note that the classical designs are optimal only if the model assumed is correct. Due to the nature of prediction made from ALT experimental data, attained under the stress levels higher than the normal condition, extrapolation is encountered. In such case, the assumed model cannot be tested. Therefore, for possible imprecision in the assumed PH model, the method of construction for robust designs is also explored.