Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

The impact of risk-reducing hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy on survival in patients with a history of breast cancer – a population-based data linkage study

Prophylactic surgery including hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO) is recommended in BRCA positive women, while in women from the general population, hysterectomy plus BSO may increase the risk of overall mortality. The effect of hysterectomy plus BSO on women previously diagnosed with breast cancer is unknown. We used data from a population-base data linkage study of all women diagnosed with primary breast cancer in Queensland, Australia between 1997 and 2008 (n=21,067). We fitted flexible parametric breast cancer specific and overall survival models with 95% confidence intervals (also known as Royston-Parmar models) to assess the impact of risk-reducing surgery (removal of uterus, one or both ovaries). We also stratified analyses by age 20-49 and 50-79 years, respectively. Overall, 1,426 women (7%) underwent risk-reducing surgery (13% of premenopausal women and 3% of postmenopausal women). No women who had risk-reducing surgery, compared to 171 who did not have risk-reducing surgery developed a gynaecological cancer. Overall, 3,165 (15%) women died, including 2,195 (10%) from breast cancer. Hysterectomy plus BSO was associated with significantly reduced risk of death overall (adjusted HR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.53-0.89; P =0.005). Risk reduction was greater among premenopausal women, whose risk of death halved (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.25-0.79; P < 0.006). This was largely driven by reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.24-0.79; P < 0.006). This population-based study found that risk-reducing surgery halved the mortality risk for premenopausal breast cancer patients. Replication of our results in independent cohorts, and subsequently randomised trials are needed to confirm these findings.

Isolation of human lymphatic malformation endothelial cells, their in vitro characterization and in vivo survival in a mouse xenograft model

Human lymphatic vascular malformations (LMs), also known as cystic hygromas or lymphangioma, consist of multiple lymphatic endothelial cell-lined lymph-containing cysts. No animal model of this disease exists. To develop a mouse xenograft model of human LM, CD34NegCD31Pos LM lymphatic endothelial cells (LM-LEC) were isolated from surgical specimens and compared to foreskin CD34NegCD31Pos lymphatic endothelial cells (LECs). Cells were implanted into a mouse tissue engineering model for 1, 2 and 4 weeks. In vitro LM-LECs showed increased proliferation and survival under starvation conditions (P < 0.0005 at 48 h, two-way ANOVA), increased migration (P < 0.001, two-way ANOVA) and formed fewer (P = 0.029, independent samples t test), shorter tubes (P = 0.029, independent samples t test) than foreskin LECs. In vivo LM-LECs implanted into a Matrigel™-containing mouse chamber model assembled to develop vessels with dilated cystic lumens lined with flat endothelium, morphology similar to that of clinical LMs. Human foreskin LECs failed to survive implantation. In LM-LEC implanted chambers the percent volume of podoplaninPos vessels was 1.18 ± 2.24 % at 1 week, 6.34 ± 2.68 % at 2 weeks and increasing to 7.67 ± 3.60 % at 4 weeks. In conclusion, the significantly increased proliferation, migration, resistance to apoptosis and decreased tubulogenesis of LM-LECs observed in vitro is likely to account for their survival and assembly into stable LM-like structures when implanted into a mouse vascularised chamber model. This in vivo xenograft model will provide the basis of future studies of LM biology and testing of potential pharmacological interventions for patients with lymphatic malformations.

Hydrogel microwell arrays allow the assessment of protease-associated enhancement of cancer cell aggregation and survival

Current routine cell culture techniques are only poorly suited to capture the physiological complexity of tumor microenvironments, wherein tumor cell function is affected by intricate three-dimensional (3D), integrin-dependent cell-cell and cell-extracellular matrix (ECM) interactions. 3D cell cultures allow the investigation of cancer-associated proteases like kallikreins as they degrade ECM proteins and alter integrin signaling, promoting malignant cell behaviors. Here, we employed a hydrogel microwell array platform to probe using a high-throughput mode how ovarian cancer cell aggregates of defined size form and survive in response to the expression of kallikreins and treatment with paclitaxel, by performing microscopic, quantitative image, gene and protein analyses dependent on the varying microwell and aggregate sizes. Paclitaxel treatment increased aggregate formation and survival of kallikrein-expressing cancer cells and levels of integrins and integrin-related factors. Cancer cell aggregate formation was improved with increasing aggregate size, thereby reducing cell death and enhancing integrin expression upon paclitaxel treatment. Therefore, hydrogel microwell arrays are a powerful tool to screen the viability of cancer cell aggregates upon modulation of protease expression, integrin engagement and anti-cancer treatment providing a micro-scaled yet high-throughput technique to assess malignant progression and drug-resistance.

Enterovirus71 (EV71) utilise host microRNAs to mediate host immune system enhancing survival during infection

Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a self-limiting viral disease that mainly affects infants and children. In contrast with other HFMD causing enteroviruses, Enterovirus71 (EV71) has commonly been associated with severe clinical manifestation leading to death. Currently, due to a lack in understanding of EV71 pathogenesis, there is no antiviral therapeutics for the treatment of HFMD patients. Therefore the need to better understand the mechanism of EV71 pathogenesis is warranted. We have previously reported a human colorectal adenocarcinoma cell line (HT29) based model to study the pathogenesis of EV71. Using this system, we showed that knockdown of DGCR8, an essential cofactor for microRNAs biogenesis resulted in a reduction of EV71 replication. We also demonstrated that there are miRNAs changes during EV71 pathogenesis and EV71 utilise host miRNAs to attenuate antiviral pathways during infection. Together, data from this study provide critical information on the role of miRNAs during EV71 infection.

Practical Advice to Entrepreneurs Series by ACE Adjunct Professor Dean Shepherd: Practical advice on managing new venture survival

The author, Dean Shepherd, is of entrepreneurship—how entrepreneurs think, decide to act, and feel. He recently realized that while his publications in academic journals have implications for entrepreneurs, those implications have remained relatively hidden in the text of the articles and hidden in articles published in journals largely inaccessible to those involved in the entrepreneurial process. This series is designed to bring the practical implications of his research to the forefront.

Survival of rat functional dental pulp cells in vascularized tissue engineering chambers

Regenerative endodontics aims to preserve, repair or regenerate the dental pulp tissue. Dental pulp stem cells, have a potential use in dental tissue generation. However, specific requirements to drive the dental tissue generation are still obscured. We established an in vivo model for studying the survival of dental pulp cells (DPC) and their potential to generate dental pulp tissue. DPC were mixed with collagen scaffold with or without slow release bone morphogenic protein 4 (BMP-4) and fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2). The cell suspension was transplanted into a vascularized tissue engineering chamber in the rat groin. Tissue constructs were harvested after 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks and processed for histomorphological and immunohistochemical analysis. After 2 weeks newly formed tissue with new blood vessel formation were observed inside the chamber. DPC were found around dentin, particularly around the vascular pedicle and also close to the gelatin microspheres. Cell survival, was confirmed up to 8 weeks after transplantation. Dentin Sialophosphoprotein (DSPP) positive matrix production was detected in the chamber, indicating functionality of dental pulp progenitor cells. This study demonstrates the potential of our tissue engineering model to study rat dental pulp cells and their behavior in dental pulp regeneration, for future development of an alternative treatment using these techniques.

In the shadow of the welfare state : the role of payday lending in poverty survival in Australia

A defining characteristic of contemporary welfare governance in many western countries has been a reduced role for governments in direct provision of welfare, including housing, education, health and income support. One of the unintended consequences of devolutionary trends in social welfare is the development of a ‘shadow welfare state’ (Fairbanks, 2009; Gottschalk, 2000), which is a term used to describe the complex partnerships between statebased social protection, voluntarism and marketised forms of welfare. Coupled with this development, conditional workfare schemes in countries such as the United States, Canada, the UK and Australia are pushing more people into informal and semi-formal means of poverty survival (Karger, 2005). These transformations are actively reshaping welfare subjectivities and the role of the state in urban governance. Like other countries such as the US, Canada and the UK, the fringe lending sector in Australia has experienced considerable growth over the last decade. Large numbers of people on low incomes in Australia are turning to non-mainstream financial services, such as payday lenders, for the provision of credit to make ends meet. In this paper, we argue that the use of fringe lenders by people on low incomes reveals important theoretical and practical insights into the relationship between the mixed economy of welfare and the mixed economy of credit in poverty survival.

Freedom to choose? Embryo selection, reproductive decision-making and the role of the state

Involving the biopsy of an eight-cell embryo, PGD has been hailed as a means of making reproductive decisions without having to face the heart-wrenching decision to abort an affected foetus. However, controversy around the kinds of traits for which testing can be done, and who has access to the technology, has led to questions about the way in which the technology is developing. Women who are allowed to access in vitro fertilisation (IVF) services can currently also access PGD in limited circumstances.

The human embryo as property? Cryopreservation and the challenges for law

The development of the new reproductive technologies has presented significant challenges for policy makers and law reformers. This article focuses on the particular challenges posed by cryopreservation of embryos. These issues are analysed through discussion of relevant Australian statutory provisions and United States case law. The article concludes with a consideration of whether the property model provides an appropriate framework for reproductive material.

Survival models of community tenure and length of hospital stay for the seriously mentally ill : a 10-year perspective

Objective: To examine the effects of personal and community characteristics, specifically race and rurality, on lengths of state psychiatric hospital and community stays using maximum likelihood survival analysis with a special emphasis on change over a ten year period of time. Data Sources: We used the administrative data of the Virginia Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) from 1982-1991 and the Area Resources File (ARF). Given these two sources, we constructed a history file for each individual who entered the state psychiatric system over the ten year period. Histories included demographic, treatment, and community characteristics. Study Design: We used a longitudinal, population-based design with maximum likelihood estimation of survival models. We presented a random effects model with unobserved heterogeneity that was independent of observed covariates. The key dependent variables were lengths of inpatient stay and subsequent length of community stay. Explanatory variables measured personal, diagnostic, and community characteristics, as well as controls for calendar time. Data Collection: This study used secondary, administrative, and health planning data. Principal Findings: African-American clients leave the community more quickly than whites. After controlling for other characteristics, however, race does not affect hospital length of stay. Rurality does not affect length of community stays once other personal and community characteristics are controlled for. However, people from rural areas have longer hospital stays even after controlling for personal and community characteristics. The effects of time are significantly smaller than expected. Diagnostic composition effects and a decrease in the rate of first inpatient admissions explain part of this reduced impact of time. We also find strong evidence for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in both types of stays and adjust for this in our final models. Conclusions: Our results show that information on client characteristics available from inpatient stay records is useful in predicting not only the length of inpatient stay but also the length of the subsequent community stay. This information can be used to target increased discharge planning for those at risk of more rapid readmission to inpatient care. Correlation across observed and unobserved factors affecting length of stay has significant effects on the measurement of relationships between individual factors and lengths of stay. Thus, it is important to control for both observed and unobserved factors in estimation.

PRMT2 and RORγ expression are associated with breast cancer survival outcomes

Protein arginine methyltransferases (PRMTs) methylate arginine residues on histones and target transcription factors that play critical roles in many cellular processes, including gene transcription, mRNA splicing, proliferation, and differentiation. Recent studies have linked PRMT-dependent epigenetic marks and modifications to carcinogenesis and metastasis in cancer. However, the role of PRMT2-dependent signaling in breast cancer remains obscure. We demonstrate PRMT2 mRNA expression was significantly decreased in breast cancer relative to normal breast. Gene expression profiling, Ingenuity and protein-protein interaction network analysis after PRMT2-short interfering RNA transfection into MCF-7 cells, revealed that PRMT2-dependent gene expression is involved in cell-cycle regulation and checkpoint control, chromosomal instability, DNA repair, and carcinogenesis. For example, PRMT2 depletion achieved the following: 1) increased p21 and decreased cyclinD1 expression in (several) breast cancer cell lines, 2) decreased cell migration, 3) induced an increase in nucleotide excision repair and homologous recombination DNA repair, and 4) increased the probability of distance metastasis free survival (DMFS). The expression of PRMT2 and retinoid-related orphan receptor-γ (RORγ) is inversely correlated in estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer and increased RORγ expression increases DMFS. Furthermore, we found decreased expression of the PRMT2-dependent signature is significantly associated with increased probability of DMFS. Finally, weighted gene coexpression network analysis demonstrated a significant correlation between PRMT2-dependent genes and cell-cycle checkpoint, kinetochore, and DNA repair circuits. Strikingly, these PRMT2-dependent circuits are correlated with pan-cancer metagene signatures associated with epithelial-mesenchymal transition and chromosomal instability. This study demonstrates the role and significant correlation between a histone methyltransferase (PRMT2)-dependent signature, RORγ, the cell-cycle regulation, DNA repair circuits, and breast cancer survival outcomes.

Phosphoprotein pathway mapping: Akt/Mammalian target of rapamycin activation is negatively associated with childhood rhabdomyosarcoma survival

Mapping of protein signaling networks within tumors can identify new targets for therapy and provide a means to stratify patients for individualized therapy. Despite advances in combination chemotherapy, the overall survival for childhood rhabdomyosarcoma remains ∼60%. A critical goal is to identify functionally important protein signaling defects associated with treatment failure for the 40% nonresponder cohort. Here, we show, by phosphoproteomic network analysis of microdissected tumor cells, that interlinked components of the Akt/mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) pathway exhibited increased levels of phosphorylation for tumors of patients with short-term survival. Specimens (n = 59) were obtained from the Children's Oncology Group Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS) IV, D9502 and D9803, with 12-year follow-up. High phosphorylation levels were associated with poor overall and poor disease-free survival: Akt Ser473 (overall survival P < 0.001, recurrence-free survival P < 0.0009), 4EBP1 Thr37/46 (overall survival P < 0.0110, recurrence-free survival P < 0.0106), eIF4G Ser1108 (overall survival P < 0.0017, recurrence-free survival P < 0.0072), and p70S6 Thr389 (overall survival P < 0.0085, recurrence-free survival P < 0.0296). Moreover, the findings support an altered interrelationship between the insulin receptor substrate (IRS-1) and Akt/mTOR pathway proteins (P < 0.0027) for tumors from patients with poor survival. The functional significance of this pathway was tested using CCI-779 in a mouse xenograft model. CCI-779 suppressed phosphorylation of mTOR downstream proteins and greatly reduced the growth of two different rhabdomyosarcoma (RD embryonal P = 0.00008; Rh30 alveolar P = 0.0002) cell lines compared with controls. These results suggest that phosphoprotein mapping of the Akt/mTOR pathway should be studied further as a means to select patients to receive mTOR/IRS pathway inhibitors before administration of chemotherapy.