886 resultados para Demographic Inferences


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The inferences obtained from the study are presented in coherent area-specific levels so as to understand the ecotourism and its sub-sector areas for the researchers and policy makers about the issues, importances and potentialities of the sector. An analysis of the tourism sector in Kerala has shown tremendous growth both in terms of tourist arrivals and in terms of revenue generation from direct and indirect sources. The foreign tourist visitors in Kerala in 2014 was 9,23,336 which shows 7.60 percent increase from the last year and the domestic tourist visitors were 1,16,95,411 which again shows 7.71 percent increase, is a clear evidence of its potential. In 2014 the industry contributed revenue of 24885.44 crores from direct and indirect sources giving rise to an increase of 12.11 percent from the last year. A dichotomy of tourists and ecotourists shows that tourists in the ecotourism destinations come to 42.6 percent of the total, shows the scope, significance and its potential. Correlation of zone-wise tourist arrivals based on the ecotourism destinations highlights the fact that with only 19 of the 64 destinations that come in the central zone are the most preferred centres (around 54 percent) for the domestic as well as foreign tourists. The north zone encompassing 6 districts with rich biodiversity shows that the tourists‟ arrival patterns exhibit less promising results. Though the north zone has 31 ecotourism destinations of the state receives only 6.19 percent of the foreign visitors. The ecotourism activities in the state are primarily managed by the Eco-Development Committees (EDCs) and the Vana Samrakshana Samithies (VSS) under the Forest Development Agency of Kerala. Social class-wise categorization of membership shows that 13142 families have membership in 190 EDCs with SC (28 percent), ST (33 percent) and other marginalised communities (39 percent). But this in the VSS shows that 400 VSS have 59085 members actively engaged in ecotourism activities and social category of the VSS makes clear that majority are from the other marginalized fringe households with 62 percent where as the participation of SC is 12 percent and ST is 26 percent. An evaluation of the socio-economic and demographic matrix of the community members involved in ecotourism activities brings out region specific differences. About 75.70 percent of the respondents are males and the rest are females. Majority of the respondents (about 60 percent) are in the age group of 20 to 40 years, followed by the age group of 40-50 (20 percent). The average age of respondents in the three zones is between 35 and 37 years. The majority of the respondents are married, a few are unmarried. Average family size is 4-5 members and differences are identified among zones. Average number of adults per household is 3 and child per household is 2. Majority have an education of 10th class and below i.e. about 60 percent of the sample have only basic school education like primary, secondary and high school (i.e. up to SSLC but not passed) level. About 18 percent are SSLC passed, 10 percent are undergraduates whereas 6 percent constitute respondents having qualification of graduation and above. Majority of the „graduates and above‟ are from south and central zone. Inter-zone differences in educational profile are also identified with lesser number of „graduates and above‟ are identified in the north zone compared to the other two zones. Investigating into the income and livelihood options of the respondents gives insight about the prominence of ecotourism as an employment and livelihood option for the community members, as more than 90 percent of the respondents have cited tourism sector as their main employment option. Most (49.30 percent) of respondents get 100 percent income from tourism related activities, followed by 37.30 percent of community members have income between 75-99 percent from tourism whereas the rest (13 percent) have less than 74 percent of their income from tourism and there exists difference between zones and percentage of income. Financial habit shows that about 49.7 percent hold active bank accounts, 61 percent have savings behaviour and 73.8 percent have indebtedness. Analysis about the ownership of house brings to light that 37 percent of respondents live in their own house followed by 25.7 percent in government funded/provided house and 21 percent in their parent‟s house and 3.5 percent in rented house. About 12 percent of the respondents have other kinds of accommodation facilities such as staff quarters, etc. But in the case of north zone majority i.e. 52 percent primarily depend on the government funded house indicating the effectiveness of government housing programme. Standard of living measured in SLI frameworks shows that majority of the respondents have medium SLI values (42.3 percent); the remaining 47.7 percent have low SLI and 10 percent have high SLI. The community members have been benefitted immensely from forest and its resources. Since the ecotourism destinations are located amidst the wildlife settings, majority of them depend on forest for their livelihood. The information on the tourist‟s demographic characteristics like age, sex, educational qualification and annual income show that the age category of domestic and foreign tourists falls below the age group of less than 35 years (about 65 percent), whereas only 16 percent of tourists are aged above 46 years. The age group below 25 years consists of more international tourists (31.3 percent) compared to the proportion of domestic tourists (12.5 percent). Male-female ratio shows that the males constitute 56 percent of the sample and females with 44 percent. The factors determining the impact of ecotourism programmes in the community was evaluated with the aid of a factor analysis with 12 selected statements. The worries and concerns of the community members about the impact of ecotourism on the environment are well understood from this analysis. It can be drawn that environment protection and the role of ecotourism in improving the income and livelihood options of the local communities is the most important factor concerning the community members.

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Cross-cultural studies on eating behaviors and related constructs can identify cultural and social factors that contribute to eating disorder symptomatology. Eating disorders (EDs) are a major cause for concern in the U.S., and recent studies in Colombia have shown growing rates among their female population. In addition, cosmetic surgery procedures have been increasing rapidly in both the U.S. and Colombia, and preliminary research suggests a positive relation between disordered eating and endorsement of plastic surgery. In samples of college women from Colombia and the U.S., we investigated patterns of association between disordered eating variables and cosmetic surgery acceptance. Our approach utilized separate analyses for various subcomponents of disordered eating (to determine their unique associations with cosmetic surgery acceptance) while adjusting for potentially relevant covariates and examining cross-cultural patterns. Participants were students at an urban, public college in the U.S. (n=163) and an urban, private college in Colombia (n=179). Overall, our findings suggested that participants from Colombia with greater disordered eating were more likely to endorse cosmetic surgery for social reasons, while those from the U.S. were more likely to consider undergoing cosmetic surgery for personal reasons. Differing findings between the two samples may be due to cultural and social factors, which we delineate. These findings also have potential implications for presurgical counseling of cosmetic surgery candidates.

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This paper is a longitudinal study of the CID Parent-Infant Program, 1966-1976.

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Although studies often report that densities of many forest birds are negatively related to urbanization, the mechanisms guiding this pattern are poorly understood. Our objective was to use a population simulation to examine the relative influence of six demographic and behavioral processes on patterns of avian abundance in urbanizing landscapes. We constructed an individual-based population simulation model representing the annual cycle of a Neotropical migratory songbird. Each simulation was performed under two landscape scenarios. The first scenario had similar proportions of high- and low-quality habitat across the urban to rural gradient. Under the first scenario, avian density was negatively related to urbanization only when rural habitats were perceived to be of higher quality than they actually were. The second landscape scenario had declining proportions of high-quality habitat as urbanization increased. Under the second scenario, each mechanism generated a negative relationship between density and urbanization. The strongest effect on density resulted when birds preferentially selected habitats in landscapes from which they fledged or were constrained from dispersing. The next strongest patterns occurred when birds directly evaluated habitat quality and accurately selected the highest-quality available territories. When birds selected habitats based on the presence of conspecifics, the density–urbanization relationship was only one-third the strength of other habitat selection mechanisms and only occurred under certain levels of population survival. Although differences in adult or nest survival in the face of random habitat selection still elicited reduced densities in urban landscapes, the relationships between urbanization and density were weaker than those produced by the conspecific attraction mechanism. Results from our study identify key predictions and areas for future research, including assessing habitat quality in urban and rural areas in order to determine if habitats in urban areas are underutilized.

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The Streaked Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris strigata) is listed as endangered by the State of Washington, USA and by Canada under the Species at Risk Act and is also classified as a federal candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act in the USA. A substantial portion of Streaked Horned Lark habitat has been lost or degraded, and range contraction has occurred in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We estimate the vital rates (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival) and population growth rate (λ) for Streaked Horned Larks breeding in Washington, USA and conduct a Life-Stage Simulation Analysis (LSA) to evaluate which vital rate has the greatest influence on λ. We simulated changes in the three vital rates to examine how much they would need to be adjusted either independently or in concert to achieve a stable Streaked Horned Lark population (λ = 1). We also evaluated which fecundity component (the number of fledglings per egg laid or renesting interval) had the greatest impact on λ. The estimate of population growth suggests that Streaked Horned Larks in Washington are declining rapidly (λ = 0.62 ± 0.10) and that local breeding sites are not sustainable without immigration. The LSA results indicate that adult survival had the greatest influence on λ, followed by juvenile survival and fecundity. However, increases in vital rates led to λ = 1 only when adult survival was raised from 0.47 to 0.85, juvenile survival from 0.17 to 0.58, and fecundity from 0.91 to 3.09. Increases in breeding success and decreases in the renesting interval influenced λ similarly; however, λ did not reach 1 even when breeding success was raised to 100% or renesting intervals were reduced to 1 day. Only when all three vital rates were increased simultaneously did λ approach 1 without requiring highly unrealistic increases in each vital rate. We conclude that conservation activities need to target all or multiple vital rates to be successful. The baseline data presented here and subsequent efforts to manage Streaked Horned Larks will provide valuable information for management of other declining Horned Lark subspecies and other grassland songbirds across North America.

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PopABC is a computer package for inferring the pattern of demographic divergence of closely related populations and species. The software performs coalescent simulation in the framework of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). PopABC can also be used to perform Bayesian model choice to discriminate between different demographic scenarios. The program can be used either for research or for education and teaching purposes.

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Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a popular method for reconstructing the demographic history of spatially distributed populations from genetic data. Although some parts of the analysis are automated, there is no unique and widely followed algorithm for doing this in its entirety, beginning with the data, and ending with the inferences drawn from the data. This article describes a method that automates NCPA, thereby providing a framework for replicating analyses in an objective way. To do so, a number of decisions need to be made so that the automated implementation is representative of previous analyses. We review how the NCPA procedure has evolved since its inception and conclude that there is scope for some variability in the manual application of NCPA. We apply the automated software to three published datasets previously analyzed manually and replicate many details of the manual analyses, suggesting that the current algorithm is representative of how a typical user will perform NCPA. We simulate a large number of replicate datasets for geographically distributed, but entirely random-mating, populations. These are then analyzed using the automated NCPA algorithm. Results indicate that NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives. In our simulations we observe that 14% of the clades give a conclusive inference that a demographic event has occurred, and that 75% of the datasets have at least one clade that gives such an inference. This is mainly due to the generation of multiple statistics per clade, of which only one is required to be significant to apply the inference key. We survey the inferences that have been made in recent publications and show that the most commonly inferred processes (restricted gene flow with isolation by distance and contiguous range expansion) are those that are commonly inferred in our simulations. However, published datasets typically yield a richer set of inferences with NCPA than obtained in our random-mating simulations, and further testing of NCPA with models of structured populations is necessary to examine its accuracy.