Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

A comparison of different methods to determine diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells

A new steady state method for determination of the electron diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) is described and illustrated with data obtained using cells containing three different types of electrolyte. The method is based on using near-IR absorbance methods to establish pairs of illumination intensity for which the total number of trapped electrons is the same at open circuit (where all electrons are lost by interfacial electron transfer) as at short circuit (where the majority of electrons are collected at the contact). Electron diffusion length values obtained by this method are compared with values derived by intensity modulated methods and by impedance measurements under illumination. The results indicate that the values of electron diffusion length derived from the steady state measurements are consistently lower than the values obtained by the non steady-state methods. For all three electrolytes used in the study, the electron diffusion length was sufficiently high to guarantee electron collection efficiencies greater than 90%. Measurement of the trap distributions by near-IR absorption confirmed earlier observations of much higher electron trap densities for electrolytes containing Li+ ions. It is suggested that the electron trap distributions may not be intrinsic properties of the TiO2 nanoparticles, but may be associated with electron-ion interactions.

Identifying work related injuries : comparison of methods for interrogating text fields

Background: Work-related injuries in Australia are estimated to cost around $57.5 billion annually, however there are currently insufficient surveillance data available to support an evidence-based public health response. Emergency departments (ED) in Australia are a potential source of information on work-related injuries though most ED’s do not have an ‘Activity Code’ to identify work-related cases with information about the presenting problem recorded in a short free text field. This study compared methods for interrogating text fields for identifying work-related injuries presenting at emergency departments to inform approaches to surveillance of work-related injury.---------- Methods: Three approaches were used to interrogate an injury description text field to classify cases as work-related: keyword search, index search, and content analytic text mining. Sensitivity and specificity were examined by comparing cases flagged by each approach to cases coded with an Activity code during triage. Methods to improve the sensitivity and/or specificity of each approach were explored by adjusting the classification techniques within each broad approach.---------- Results: The basic keyword search detected 58% of cases (Specificity 0.99), an index search detected 62% of cases (Specificity 0.87), and the content analytic text mining (using adjusted probabilities) approach detected 77% of cases (Specificity 0.95).---------- Conclusions The findings of this study provide strong support for continued development of text searching methods to obtain information from routine emergency department data, to improve the capacity for comprehensive injury surveillance.

A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.

Synthesis and modifications of metal oxide nanostructures and their applications

Transition metal oxides are functional materials that have advanced applications in many areas, because of their diverse properties (optical, electrical, magnetic, etc.), hardness, thermal stability and chemical resistance. Novel applications of the nanostructures of these oxides are attracting significant interest as new synthesis methods are developed and new structures are reported. Hydrothermal synthesis is an effective process to prepare various delicate structures of metal oxides on the scales from a few to tens of nanometres, specifically, the highly dispersed intermediate structures which are hardly obtained through pyro-synthesis. In this thesis, a range of new metal oxide (stable and metastable titanate, niobate) nanostructures, namely nanotubes and nanofibres, were synthesised via a hydrothermal process. Further structure modifications were conducted and potential applications in catalysis, photocatalysis, adsorption and construction of ceramic membrane were studied. The morphology evolution during the hydrothermal reaction between Nb2O5 particles and concentrated NaOH was monitored. The study demonstrates that by optimising the reaction parameters (temperature, amount of reactants), one can obtain a variety of nanostructured solids, from intermediate phases niobate bars and fibres to the stable phase cubes. Trititanate (Na2Ti3O7) nanofibres and nanotubes were obtained by the hydrothermal reaction between TiO2 powders or a titanium compound (e.g. TiOSO4·xH2O) and concentrated NaOH solution by controlling the reaction temperature and NaOH concentration. The trititanate possesses a layered structure, and the Na ions that exist between the negative charged titanate layers are exchangeable with other metal ions or H+ ions. The ion-exchange has crucial influence on the phase transition of the exchanged products. The exchange of the sodium ions in the titanate with H+ ions yields protonated titanate (H-titanate) and subsequent phase transformation of the H-titanate enable various TiO2 structures with retained morphology. H-titanate, either nanofibres or tubes, can be converted to pure TiO2(B), pure anatase, mixed TiO2(B) and anatase phases by controlled calcination and by a two-step process of acid-treatment and subsequent calcination. While the controlled calcination of the sodium titanate yield new titanate structures (metastable titanate with formula Na1.5H0.5Ti3O7, with retained fibril morphology) that can be used for removal of radioactive ions and heavy metal ions from water. The structures and morphologies of the metal oxides were characterised by advanced techniques. Titania nanofibres of mixed anatase and TiO2(B) phases, pure anatase and pure TiO2(B) were obtained by calcining H-titanate nanofibres at different temperatures between 300 and 700 °C. The fibril morphology was retained after calcination, which is suitable for transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analysis. It has been found by TEM analysis that in mixed-phase structure the interfaces between anatase and TiO2(B) phases are not random contacts between the engaged crystals of the two phases, but form from the well matched lattice planes of the two phases. For instance, (101) planes in anatase and (101) planes of TiO2(B) are similar in d spaces (~0.18 nm), and they join together to form a stable interface. The interfaces between the two phases act as an one-way valve that permit the transfer of photogenerated charge from anatase to TiO2(B). This reduces the recombination of photogenerated electrons and holes in anatase, enhancing the activity for photocatalytic oxidation. Therefore, the mixed-phase nanofibres exhibited higher photocatalytic activity for degradation of sulforhodamine B (SRB) dye under ultraviolet (UV) light than the nanofibres of either pure phase alone, or the mechanical mixtures (which have no interfaces) of the two pure phase nanofibres with a similar phase composition. This verifies the theory that the difference between the conduction band edges of the two phases may result in charge transfer from one phase to the other, which results in effectively the photogenerated charge separation and thus facilitates the redox reaction involving these charges. Such an interface structure facilitates charge transfer crossing the interfaces. The knowledge acquired in this study is important not only for design of efficient TiO2 photocatalysts but also for understanding the photocatalysis process. Moreover, the fibril titania photocatalysts are of great advantage when they are separated from a liquid for reuse by filtration, sedimentation, or centrifugation, compared to nanoparticles of the same scale. The surface structure of TiO2 also plays a significant role in catalysis and photocatalysis. Four types of large surface area TiO2 nanotubes with different phase compositions (labelled as NTA, NTBA, NTMA and NTM) were synthesised from calcination and acid treatment of the H-titanate nanotubes. Using the in situ FTIR emission spectrescopy (IES), desorption and re-adsorption process of surface OH-groups on oxide surface can be trailed. In this work, the surface OH-group regeneration ability of the TiO2 nanotubes was investigated. The ability of the four samples distinctively different, having the order: NTA > NTBA > NTMA > NTM. The same order was observed for the catalytic when the samples served as photocatalysts for the decomposition of synthetic dye SRB under UV light, as the supports of gold (Au) catalysts (where gold particles were loaded by a colloid-based method) for photodecomposition of formaldehyde under visible light and for catalytic oxidation of CO at low temperatures. Therefore, the ability of TiO2 nanotubes to generate surface OH-groups is an indicator of the catalytic activity. The reason behind the correlation is that the oxygen vacancies at bridging O2- sites of TiO2 surface can generate surface OH-groups and these groups facilitate adsorption and activation of O2 molecules, which is the key step of the oxidation reactions. The structure of the oxygen vacancies at bridging O2- sites is proposed. Also a new mechanism for the photocatalytic formaldehyde decomposition with the Au-TiO2 catalysts is proposed: The visible light absorbed by the gold nanoparticles, due to surface plasmon resonance effect, induces transition of the 6sp electrons of gold to high energy levels. These energetic electrons can migrate to the conduction band of TiO2 and are seized by oxygen molecules. Meanwhile, the gold nanoparticles capture electrons from the formaldehyde molecules adsorbed on them because of gold’s high electronegativity. O2 adsorbed on the TiO2 supports surface are the major electron acceptor. The more O2 adsorbed, the higher the oxidation activity of the photocatalyst will exhibit. The last part of this thesis demonstrates two innovative applications of the titanate nanostructures. Firstly, trititanate and metastable titanate (Na1.5H0.5Ti3O7) nanofibres are used as intelligent absorbents for removal of radioactive cations and heavy metal ions, utilizing the properties of the ion exchange ability, deformable layered structure, and fibril morphology. Environmental contamination with radioactive ions and heavy metal ions can cause a serious threat to the health of a large part of the population. Treatment of the wastes is needed to produce a waste product suitable for long-term storage and disposal. The ion-exchange ability of layered titanate structure permitted adsorption of bivalence toxic cations (Sr2+, Ra2+, Pb2+) from aqueous solution. More importantly, the adsorption is irreversible, due to the deformation of the structure induced by the strong interaction between the adsorbed bivalent cations and negatively charged TiO6 octahedra, and results in permanent entrapment of the toxic bivalent cations in the fibres so that the toxic ions can be safely deposited. Compared to conventional clay and zeolite sorbents, the fibril absorbents are of great advantage as they can be readily dispersed into and separated from a liquid. Secondly, new generation membranes were constructed by using large titanate and small ã-alumina nanofibres as intermediate and top layers, respectively, on a porous alumina substrate via a spin-coating process. Compared to conventional ceramic membranes constructed by spherical particles, the ceramic membrane constructed by the fibres permits high flux because of the large porosity of their separation layers. The voids in the separation layer determine the selectivity and flux of a separation membrane. When the sizes of the voids are similar (which means a similar selectivity of the separation layer), the flux passing through the membrane increases with the volume of the voids which are filtration passages. For the ideal and simplest texture, a mesh constructed with the nanofibres 10 nm thick and having a uniform pore size of 60 nm, the porosity is greater than 73.5 %. In contrast, the porosity of the separation layer that possesses the same pore size but is constructed with metal oxide spherical particles, as in conventional ceramic membranes, is 36% or less. The membrane constructed by titanate nanofibres and a layer of randomly oriented alumina nanofibres was able to filter out 96.8% of latex spheres of 60 nm size, while maintaining a high flux rate between 600 and 900 Lm–2 h–1, more than 15 times higher than the conventional membrane reported in the most recent study.

Infrastructure sustainability : differential axial shortening of concrete structures

High density development has been seen as a contribution to sustainable development. However, a number of engineering issues play a crucial role in the sustainable construction of high rise buildings. Non linear deformation of concrete has an adverse impact on high-rise buildings with complex geometries, due to differential axial shortening. These adverse effects are caused by time dependent behaviour resulting in volume change known as ‘shrinkage’, ‘creep’ and ‘elastic’ deformation. These three phenomena govern the behaviour and performance of all concrete elements, during and after construction. Reinforcement content, variable concrete modulus, volume to surface area ratio of the elements, environmental conditions, and construction quality and sequence influence on the performance of concrete elements and differential axial shortening will occur in all structural systems. Its detrimental effects escalate with increasing height and non vertical load paths resulting from geometric complexity. The magnitude of these effects has a significant impact on building envelopes, building services, secondary systems, and lifetime serviceability and performance. Analytical and test procedures available to quantify the magnitude of these effects are limited to a very few parameters and are not adequately rigorous to capture the complexity of true time dependent material response. With this in mind, a research project has been undertaken to develop an accurate numerical procedure to quantify the differential axial shortening of structural elements. The procedure has been successfully applied to quantify the differential axial shortening of a high rise building, and the important capabilities available in the procedure have been discussed. A new practical concept, based on the variation of vibration characteristic of structure during and after construction and used to quantify the axial shortening and assess the performance of structure, is presented.

Methods and preliminary results for a data linkage project to determine long-term survival after intensive care unit admission

Aims: To describe a local data linkage project to match hospital data with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) National Death Index (NDI) to assess longterm outcomes of intensive care unit patients. Methods: Data were obtained from hospital intensive care and cardiac surgery databases on all patients aged 18 years and over admitted to either of two intensive care units at a tertiary-referral hospital between 1 January 1994 and 31 December 2005. Date of death was obtained from the AIHW NDI by probabilistic software matching, in addition to manual checking through hospital databases and other sources. Survival was calculated from time of ICU admission, with a censoring date of 14 February 2007. Data for patients with multiple hospital admissions requiring intensive care were analysed only from the first admission. Summary and descriptive statistics were used for preliminary data analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to analyse factors determining long-term survival. Results: During the study period, 21 415 unique patients had 22 552 hospital admissions that included an ICU admission; 19 058 surgical procedures were performed with a total of 20 092 ICU admissions. There were 4936 deaths. Median follow-up was 6.2 years, totalling 134 203 patient years. The casemix was predominantly cardiac surgery (80%), followed by cardiac medical (6%), and other medical (4%). The unadjusted survival at 1, 5 and 10 years was 97%, 84% and 70%, respectively. The 1-year survival ranged from 97% for cardiac surgery to 36% for cardiac arrest. An APACHE II score was available for 16 877 patients. In those discharged alive from hospital, the 1, 5 and 10-year survival varied with discharge location. Conclusions: ICU-based linkage projects are feasible to determine long-term outcomes of ICU patients

Choosing "interesting" research methods and facing the challenges for publication

This paper discusses the choice to use two less conventional or “interesting” research methods, Q Methodology and Experience Sampling Method, rather than “status quo” research methods so common in the marketing discipline. It is argued that such methods have value for marketing academics because they widen the potential for discovery. The paper outlines these two research methods, providing examples of how they have been used in an experiential consumption perspective. Additionally the paper identifies some of the challenges to be faced when trying to publish research that use such less conventional methods, as well as offering suggestions to address them.

Next Generation ‘Filmmaking’: New Markets, New Methods and New Business Models

Digital production and distribution technologies may create new opportunities for filmmaking in Australia. A culture of new approaches to filmmaking is emerging driven by ‘next generation filmmakers’ who are willing to consider new business models: from online web series to short films produced for mobile phones. At the same time cultural representation itself is transforming within an interactive, social media driven environment. Yet there is very little research into next generation filmmaking. The aim of this paper is to scope and discuss three key aspects of next generation filmmaking, namely: digital trends in film distribution and marketing; processes and strategies of ‘next generation’ filmmakers; and case studies of viable next generation business models and filmmaking practices. We conclude with a brief examination of the implications for media and cultural policy which suggests the future possibility of a rapprochement between creative industries discourse and cultural policy.