Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The GP problem: quantifying gene-to-phenotype relationships

In this paper we refer to the gene-to-phenotype modeling challenge as the GP problem. Integrating information across levels of organization within a genotype-environment system is a major challenge in computational biology. However, resolving the GP problem is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand and predict phenotypes given knowledge of the genome and model dynamic properties of biological systems. Organisms are consequences of this integration, and it is a major property of biological systems that underlies the responses we observe. We discuss the E(NK) model as a framework for investigation of the GP problem and the prediction of system properties at different levels of organization. We apply this quantitative framework to an investigation of the processes involved in genetic improvement of plants for agriculture. In our analysis, N genes determine the genetic variation for a set of traits that are responsible for plant adaptation to E environment-types within a target population of environments. The N genes can interact in epistatic NK gene-networks through the way that they influence plant growth and development processes within a dynamic crop growth model. We use a sorghum crop growth model, available within the APSIM agricultural production systems simulation model, to integrate the gene-environment interactions that occur during growth and development and to predict genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a given E(NK) model. Directional selection is then applied to the population of genotypes, based on their predicted phenotypes, to simulate the dynamic aspects of genetic improvement by a plant-breeding program. The outcomes of the simulated breeding are evaluated across cycles of selection in terms of the changes in allele frequencies for the N genes and the genotypic and phenotypic values of the populations of genotypes.

The Three-dimensional Solution Structure of NaD1, a New Floral Defensin from Nicotiana alata and its Application to a Homology Model of the Crop Defense Protein alfAFP

NMR spectroscopy and simulated annealing calculations have been used to determine the three-dimensional structure of NaD1, a novel antifungal and insecticidal protein isolated from the flowers of Nicotiana alata. NaD1 is a basic, cysteine-rich protein of 47 residues and is the first example of a plant defensin from flowers to be characterized structurally. Its three-dimensional structure consists of an a-helix and a triple-stranded anti-parallel beta-sheet that are stabilized by four intramolecular disulfide bonds. NaD1 features all the characteristics of the cysteine-stabilized up motif that has been described for a variety of proteins of differing functions ranging from antibacterial insect defensins and ion channel-perturbing scorpion toxins to an elicitor of the sweet taste response. The protein is biologically active against insect pests, which makes it a potential candidate for use in crop protection. NaD1 shares 31% sequence identity with alfAFP, an antifungal protein from alfalfa that confers resistance to a fungal pathogen in transgenic potatoes. The structure of NaD1 was used to obtain a homology model of alfAFP, since NaD1 has the highest level of sequence identity with alfAFP of any structurally characterized antifungal defensin. The structures of NaD1 and alfAFP were used in conjunction with structure - activity data for the radish defensin Rs-AFP2 to provide an insight into structure-function relationships. In particular, a putative effector site was identified in the structure of NaD1 and in the corresponding homology model of alfAFP. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Outcome variables for osteoarthritis clinical trials: the OMERACT-OARSI set of responder criteria

Improvement in analysis and reporting results of osteoarthritis (OA) clinical trials has been recently obtained because of harmonization and standardization of the selection of outcome variables (OMERACT 3 and OARSI). Moreover, OARSI has recently proposed the OARSI responder criteria. This composite index permits presentation of results of symptom modifying clinical trials in OA based on individual patient responses (responder yes/no). The 2 organizations (OMERACT and OARSI) established. a task force aimed at evaluating: (1) the variability of observed placebo and active treatment effects using the OARSI responder criteria; and (2) the possibility of proposing a simplified set of criteria. The conclusions of the task force were presented and discussed during the OMERACT 6 conference, where a simplified set of responder criteria (OMERACT-OARSI set of criteria) was proposed.

Movements of the ricefield rat, Rattus argentiventer, near a trap-barrier system in rice crops in West Java, Indonesia

The movements of the ricefield rats (Rattus argentiventer) near a trap-barrier system (TBS) were assessed in lowland flood-irrigated rice crops in West Java, Indonesia, to test the hypothesis that a TBS with a 'trap-crop' modifies the movements of rats within 200 m from the trap-crop. The home range use and locations of rat burrows were assessed using radiotelemetry at two sites, one with a TBS with trap-crop (Treatment site, the crop inside the fence was planted 3 weeks earlier than the surrounding crop) and the other with a TBS without trap-crop (Control site, the crop inside the fence was planted at the same time as the surrounding crop). Each TBS was a 50 x 50 m plastic fence with eight multiple-capture rat traps set at the base. More than 700 rats were caught in the TBS with trap-crop, whereas only 10 rats were caught in the TBS without trap-crop. The home range size of females was significantly smaller at the Treatment site (0.96 ha) than the Control site (2.99 ha), but there was no difference for males. Seventy-eight per cent of rats caught in the TBS and fitted with radiocollars had their daytime burrow locations within 200 m of the TBS. We could not determine if the rats caught in the TBS were residents or transients according to demographic parameters. Our results support the hypothesis that a TBS with a trap-crop protects the surrounding rice crop out to a distance of at least 200 m.

Towards the on-farm conservation of the assassin bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker) (Hemiptera : Reduviidae) during winter using crop plants as refuges

Habitat instability associated with seasonal crop succession in broad-acre farming systems presents a problem for the conservation and utilisation of beneficial insects in annual field crops. The present paper describes two experiments used to measure the potential of seven plant species to be utilised as winter refuges to support and conserve the predatory bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker). In the first experiment, replicated plots of canola (Brassica napus ), red salvia (Salvia coccinea ), niger (Guizotia abyssinica ), linseed (Linum usitatissimum ), lupins (Lupinus angustifolius ), and lucerne (Medicago falcata ) were planted in a randomized experiment during Autumn 1998. Upon crop establishment, adults and nymphs of P. plagipennis were released into treatment plots and their numbers were assessed, along with those of their potential prey, throughout the ensuing winter months. Post-release sampling suggested that canola and niger retained a proportion of adult P. plagipennis , while niger, lucerne and canola retained some nymphs. The other plant species failed to support P. plagipennis nymphs and adults postrelease. In the second experiment, niger was compared with two lines of sunflower (Helianthus annus ). Both sunflower lines harboured significantly higher (P < 0.05) densities of P. plagipennis nymphs than did niger. The more successful refuge treatments (sunflower, niger and canola) had an abundance of yellow flowers that were attractive to pollinating insects, which served as supplementary prey on which P. plagipennis were observed to feed. Sunflower and niger also supported high densities of the prey insect Creontiades dilutus (Stal) and provided protective leafy canopies which supplied shelter during the winter months. The potential and limitations for using each plant species as a winter refuge to retain P. plagipennis during winter are discussed.

Linking physiological and architectural models of cotton

Despite the strong influence of plant architecture on crop yield, most crop models either ignore it or deal with it in a very rudimentary way. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of linking a model that simulates the morphogenesis and resultant architecture of individual cotton plants with a crop model that simulates the effects of environmental factors on critical physiological processes and resulting yield in cotton. First the varietal parameters of the models were made concordant. Then routines were developed to allocate the flower buds produced each day by the crop model amongst the potential positions generated by the architectural model. This allocation is done according to a set of heuristic rules. The final weight of individual bolls and the shedding of buds and fruit caused by water, N, and C stresses are processed in a similar manner. Observations of the positions of harvestable fruits, both within and between plants, made under a variety of agronomic conditions that had resulted in a broad range of plant architectures were compared to those predicted by the model with the same environmental inputs. As illustrated by comparisons of plant maps, the linked models performed reasonably well, though performance of the fruiting point allocation and shedding algorithms could probably be improved by further analysis of the spatial relationships of retained fruit. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Basis set convergence in Hartree-Fock calculations of some diatomic molecules containing first and second-row atoms

Investiga-se a convergência de conjuntos de bases em direção ao limite numérico da energia Hartree-Fock (HF) total para as seqüências hierárquicas dos conjuntos de bases XZP e ccpVXZ. Para as duas hierarquias, melhoramentos significativos são obtidos com cada incremento em X. Para estimar o limite do conjunto de base completo, uma forma exponencial foi usada. Entre as várias aproximações consideradas aqui, uma extrapolação exponencial de três parâmetros aplicada aos resultados TZP, QZP e 5ZP deu os limites do conjunto de bases mais precisos. Em adição, energias HF dos orbitais moleculares ocupados mais altos de algumas moléculas diatômicas foram calculadas com o conjunto 5ZP e comparadas com as correspondentes obtidas com o conjunto cc-pV5Z e com um método numérico HF.

Variabilidade espacial do estado nutricional do cafeeiro conilon utilizando índice DRIS

A combinação da agricultura de precisão e do Sistema Integrado de Recomendação Foliar (DRIS) possibilita monitorar espacialmente o balanço nutricional dos cafezais para fornecer recomendações de adubação mais equilibradas e mais ajustadas economicamente. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a variabilidade espacial do estado nutricional do cafeeiro conilon, utilizando o Índice de Balanço Nutricional (IBN) e sua relação com a produtividade. A produtividade das plantas em cada ponto amostral foi determinada e construiu-se o seu mapa considerando a variabilidade espacial; determinou-se o Índice de Equilíbrio Nutricional (IBN) das plantas em cada ponto amostral e construiu-se o seu mapa; e utilizou-se a análise de componentes principais (ACP) para estimar o IBN do cafeeiro por cokrigagem. Os dados do cafeeiro conilon foram coletados em fazenda experimental, no município de Cachoeiro de Itapemirim-ES. O IBN do cafeeiro e a sua produtividade foram analisados por meio de geoestatística, com base nos modelos e parâmetros dos semivariogramas, utilizando o método de interpolação krigagem ordinária para estimar valores para locais não amostrados. O índice de Balanço Nutricional da lavoura do cafeeiro conilon apresentou dependência espacial, porém não apresentou correlação linear e nem espacial com a produtividade. A lavoura em estudo se encontra em desequilíbrio nutricional, sendo que entre os macronutrientes, o Potássio foi o que apresentou maior desequilíbrio na área, entre os micronutrientes, o Zinco e o Ferro foram os que apresentaram menores concentrações nas folhas. A confecção dos mapas possibilitou a distinção de regiões com maior e menor desequilíbrio nutricional e produtividade, o que possibilita adotar o manejo de forma diferenciada e localizada. A análise multivariada baseada em componentes principais fornece componentes com alta correlação com as variáveis originais P, Ca, Zn , Cu, K e B. A cokrigagem utilizando as componentes principais permite estimar o IBN e a produtividade da área.

Lime and fertilizer recommendation system for coconut trees

Fertilizer recommendation to most agricultural crops is based on response curves. Such curves are constructed from field experimental data, obtained for a particular condition and may not be reliable to be applied to other regions. The aim of this study was to develop a Lime and Fertilizer Recommendation System for Coconut Crop based on the nutritional balance. The System considers the expected productivity and plant nutrient use efficiency to estimate nutrient demand, and effective rooting layer, soil nutrient availability, as well as any other nutrient input to estimate the nutrient supply. Comparing the nutrient demand with the nutrient supply the System defines the nutrient balance. If the balance for a given nutrient is negative, lime and, or, fertilization is recommended. On the other hand, if the balance is positive, no lime or fertilizer is needed. For coconut trees, the fertilization regime is divided in three stages: fertilization at the planting spot, band fertilization and fertilization at the production phase. The data set for the development of the System for coconut trees was obtained from the literature. The recommendations generated by the System were compared to those derived from recommendation tables used for coconut crop in Brazil. The main differences between the two procedures were for the P rate applied in the planting hole, which was higher in the proposed System because the tables do not pay heed to the pit volume, whereas the N and K rates were lower. The crop demand for K is very high, and the rates recommended by the System are superior to the table recommendations for the formation and initial production stage. The fertilizer recommendations by the System are higher for the phase of coconut tree growth as compared to the production phase, because greater amount of biomass is produced in the first phase.

Soil profile internal drainage for a central pivot fertigated coffee crop

Coffee cultivation via central-pivot fertigation can lead to fertilizer losses by soil profile internal drainage when water application is excessive and soils have low water retention and cation adsorption capacities. This study analyses the deep water losses from the top 1 m sandy soil layer of east Bahia, Brazil, cultivated with coffee at a high technology level (central-pivot fertigation), using above normal N fertilizer rates. The deep drainage (Q) estimation is made through the application of a climatologic water balance (CWB) program having as input direct measures of irrigation and rainfall, climatological data from weather stations, and measured soil water retention characteristics. The aim of the study is to contribute to the understanding of the hydric regime of coffee crops managed by central-pivot irrigation, analyzing three scenarios (Sc): i) rainfall only, ii) rainfall and irrigation full year, and iii) rainfall and irrigation dry season only. Annual Q values for the 2008/2009 agricultural year were: Sc i = 811.5 mm; Sc ii = 1010.5 mm; and Sc iii = 873.1 mm, so that the irrigation interruption in the wet season reduced Q by 15.7%, without the appearance of water deficit periods. Results show that the use of the CWB program is a convenient tool for the evaluation of Q under the cited conditions.