Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs

Sea temperatures in many tropical regions have increased by almost 1 degrees C over the past 100 years, and are currently increasing at similar to 1-2 degrees C per century. Coral bleaching occurs when the thermal tolerance of corals and their photosynthetic symbionts (zooxanthellae) is exceeded. Mass coral bleaching has occurred in association with episodes of elevated sea temperatures over the past 20 years and involves the loss of the zooxanthellae following chronic photoinhibition. Mass bleaching has resulted in significant losses of live coral in many parts of the world. This paper considers the biochemical, physiological and ecological perspectives of coral bleaching. It also uses the outputs of four runs from three models of global climate change which simulate changes in sea temperature and hence how the frequency and intensity of bleaching events will change over the next 100 years. The results suggest that the thermal tolerances of reef-building corals are likely to be exceeded every year within the next few decades. Events as severe as the 1998 event, the worst on record, are likely to become commonplace within 20 years. Most information suggests that the capacity for acclimation by corals has already been exceeded, and that adaptation will be too slow to avert a decline in the quality of the world's reefs. The rapidity of the changes that are predicted indicates a major problem for tropical marine ecosystems and suggests that unrestrained warming cannot occur without the loss and degradation of coral reefs on a global scale.

Isotropic singularities in shear-free perfect fluid cosmologies

We investigate barotropic perfect fluid cosmologies which admit an isotropic singularity. From the General Vorticity Result of Scott, it is known that these cosmologies must be irrotational. In this paper we prove, using two different methods, that if we make the additional assumption that the perfect fluid is shear-free, then the fluid flow must be geodesic. This then implies that the only shear-free, barotropic, perfect fluid cosmologies which admit an isotropic singularity are the FRW models.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

A family of perfect factorisations of complete bipartite graphs

A 1-factorisation of a graph is perfect if the union of any two of its 1-factors is a Hamiltonian cycle. Let n = p(2) for an odd prime p. We construct a family of (p-1)/2 non-isomorphic perfect 1-factorisations of K-n,K-n. Equivalently, we construct pan-Hamiltonian Latin squares of order n. A Latin square is pan-Hamiltoilian if the permutation defined by any row relative to any other row is a single Cycle. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Supervision and career counsellors: A little-explored practice with an uncertain future

While the supervision of counsellors has received much attention in the literature, there is a dearth of empirical and conceptual literature about the supervision of career counsellors. Career counselling has not to date followed other helping professions towards increased requirements for supervision or compulsory supervision. Recently there has been slight evidence of change and some advocacy of supervision for career counsellors in the literature. However, no previous studies related to supervision and career counsellors have been conducted. The Australian study reported here gathered information from members of a professional career counselling association about supervision through survey and focus group interviews. The findings revealed that supervision is not widely practised and that there are varying levels of understanding of and commitment to supervision.

Economic performance of Brazilian manufacturing firms: a counterfactual analysis of innovation impacts

This article assesses if innovators outperform non-innovators in Brazilian manufacturing during 1996-2002. To do so, we begin with a simple theoretical model and test the impacts of technological innovation (treatment) on innovating firms (treated) by employing propensity score matching techniques. Correcting for the survivorship bias in the period, it was verified that, on an average, the accomplishment of technological innovations produces positive and significant impacts on the employment, the net revenue, the labor productivity, the capital productivity, and market share of the firms. However, this result was not observed for the mark-up. Especially, the net revenue reflects more robustly the impacts of the innovations. Quantitatively speaking, innovating firms experienced a 10.8-12.5 percentage points (p.p. henceforth) higher growth on employment, a 18.1-21.7 p.p. higher growth on the net revenue, a 10.8-11.9 p.p. higher growth on labor productivity, a 11.8-12.0 p.p. higher growth on capital productivity, and a 19.9-24.3 p.p. higher growth on their market share, relative to the average of the non-innovating firms in the control group. It was also observed that the conjunction of product and process innovations, relative to other forms of innovation, presents the stronger impacts on the performance of Brazilian firms.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A proteome analysis of conditioned media from human neonatal fibroblasts used in the maintenance of human embryonic stem cells

The pathways involved in the maintenance of human embryonic stem (hES) cells remain largely unknown, although some signaling pathways have been identified in mouse embryonic stem (mES) cells. Fibroblast feeder layers are used to maintain the undifferentiated growth of hES cells and an examination of the conditioned media (CM) of human neonatal fibroblasts (HNFs) could provide insights into the maintenance of hES cells. The neonatal foreskin fibroblast line (HNF02) used in this study was shown to have a normal 2n = 46, XY chromosomal complement and to support the undifferentiated growth of the Embryonic Stem Cell International Pte. Ltd.-hES3 cell line. The CM of HNF02 was examined using two-dimensional liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (2-D LCMS) and two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE) followed by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight tandem mass spectrometry (2-DE/MALDI). A total of 102 proteins were identified, 19 by 2-DE/MALDI, 53 by 2-D LCMS and 30 by both techniques. These proteins were classified into 15 functional groups. Proteins identified in the extracellular matrix and differentiation and growth factor functional categories were considered most likely to be involved in the maintenance of hES cell growth, differentiation and pluripotency as these groups contained proteins involved in a variety of events including cell adhesion, cell proliferation and inhibition of cell proliferation, Writ signaling and inhibition of bone morphogenetic proteins.

Extracellular serotonin level in the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala and dorsal periaqueductal gray under unconditioned and conditioned fear states: An in vivo microdialysis study

Serotonin (5-HT) plays a key role in the neural circuitry mediating unconditioned and conditioned fear responses related to panic and generalized anxiety disorders. The basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA) and the dorsal periaqueductal gray (dPAG) appear to be mainly involved in these conditions. The aim of this study was to measure the extracellular level of 5-HT and its metabolite 5-hydroxyindolacetic acid (5-HIAA) in the BLA and dPAG during unconditioned and conditioned fear states using in vivo microdialysis procedure. Thus, for the unconditioned fear test, animals were chemically stimulated in the dPAG with semicarbazide, an inhibitor of the gamma-aminobutyric acid-synthesizing enzyme glutamic acid decarboxylase. For the conditioned fear test, animals were subjected to a contextual conditioned fear paradigm using electrical footshock as the unconditioned stimulus. The results show that the 5-HT and 5-HIAA level in the BLA and dPAG did not change during unconditioned fear, whereas 5-HT concentration, but not 5-HIAA concentration, increased in these brain areas during conditioned fear. The present study showed that the 5-HT system was activated during conditioned fear, whereas it remained unchanged during unconditioned fear, supporting the hypothesis that 5-HT has distinct roles in conditioned and unconditioned fear (dual role of 5-HT in anxiety disorders). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.