An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Perception or synthesized voice quality in connected speech by Cantonese speakers

Perceptual voice analysis is a subjective process. However, despite reports of varying degrees of intrajudge and interjudge reliability, it is widely used in clinical voice evaluation. One of the ways to improve the reliability of this procedure is to provide judges with signals as external standards so that comparison can be made in relation to these anchor signals. The present study used a Klatt speech synthesizer to create a set of speech signals with varying degree of three different voice qualities based on a Cantonese sentence. The primary objective of the study was to determine whether different abnormal voice qualities could be synthesized using the built-in synthesis parameters using a perceptual study. The second objective was to determine the relationship between acoustic characteristics of the synthesized signals and perceptual judgment. Twenty Cantonese-speaking speech pathologists with at least three years of clinical experience in perceptual voice evaluation were asked to undertake two tasks. The first was to decide whether the voice quality of the synthesized signals was normal or not. The second was to decide whether the abnormal signals should be described as rough, breathy, or vocal fry. The results showed that signals generated with a small degree of aspiration noise were perceived as breathiness while signals with a small degree of flutter or double pulsing were perceived as roughness. When the flutter or double pulsing increased further, tremor and vocal fry, rather than roughness, were perceived. Furthermore, the amount of aspiration noise, flutter, or double pulsing required for male voice stimuli was different from that required for the female voice stimuli with a similar level of perceptual breathiness and roughness. These findings showed that changes in perceived vocal quality could be achieved by systematic modifications of synthesis parameters. This opens up the possibility of using synthesized voice signals as external standards or anchors to improve the reliability of clinical perceptual voice evaluation. (C) 2002 Acoustical Society of America.

A comparison of model laws as a starting point for the development of an enforceable international consumer protection regime

This article is concerned primarily with an examination and comparison of select aspects of the model international consumer protection laws proposed by the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), using the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Australia) as a basis for examination and comparison. As a secondary consideration, it also broadly examines the content of, and differences between, the model laws. The motive for this article is that any future enforceable international consumer protection regime (possibly in the form of an international treaty or convention) would need to take into account the UN, EU and OECD guidelines. A cross-comparison of those model laws, and a comparison of them with the consumer protection provisions of a well established national consumer protection law, should provide a useful starting point for the development of such a regime. The 'select aspects' of the model laws in question are the various provisions of those laws which could relate to situations involving the wrong delivery or non-delivery of goods.

Do expertise and the degree of perception-action coupling affect natural anticipatory performance?

Two experiments using a temporal occlusion paradigm (the first with expert and novice participants and the second with participants of intermediate skill) were conducted to examine the capability of tennis players to predict the direction of an opponent's service in situ. In both experiments two different response conditions, reflecting differing degrees of perception-action coupling, were employed. In a coupled condition players were required to make a movement-based response identical to that which they would use to hit a return of service in a game situation, whereas in an uncoupled condition a verbal prediction of service direction was required. Experiment 1 provided clear evidence of superior prediction accuracy under the coupled response condition when ball flight was available, plus some limited evidence to suggest that superior prediction accuracy under uncoupled response conditions might hold true if only advance (pre-contact) information was available. Experiment 2 showed the former finding to be a robust one, but was unable to reveal any support for the latter. Experiment 1 also revealed that expert superiority is more apparent for predictions made under natural (coupled) than uncoupled response-mode conditions. Collectively, these findings suggest that different perceptual processes may be in operation in anticipatory tasks which depend on skill level, the type of information presented, and degree of perception-action coupling inherent in the task requirements.

Displaying the future: Techno-nationalism and the rise of the consumer in postwar Japan

This paper explains how, in the aftermath of World War II, a type of techno-nationalism emerged that linked being Japanese to science and technology and the increased consumption of electrical appliances. By closely examining official exhibitions, we can see how the state and private sector strongly encouraged this techno-scientific dreaming. Dazzling displays highlighted how the peaceful atom would help lead the nation to achieve high economic growth. At the same time, through the judicious purchase of labor saving appliances, consumers could reconcile the need to spend with the need to save.