Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Facilitation Process Concerning the Difficulties in Implementing A Vision For Change in the South Tipperary and Carlow Kilkenny Catchment Area Mental Health Service

Facilitation Process Concerning the Difficulties in Implementing A Vision For Change in the South Tipperary and Carlow Kilkenny Catchment Area Mental Health Service Click here to download PDF 4.27MB

Change in cognitive errors and coping over the course of brief psychodynamic intervention.

OBJECTIVE: Cognitive change over the course of psychodynamic psychotherapy has been postulated by several models, but has rarely been studied. Based on the adaptive skills model (Badgio, Halperin, & Barber, 1999), it is reasonable to expect that very brief dynamic psychotherapy may be associated with change in coping patterns and cognitive errors (also known as cognitive distortions) y. METHOD: N = 50 outpatients presenting with various psychiatric disorders and undergoing 4 sessions of Brief Psychodynamic Intervention (BPI; Despland, Drapeau, & de Roten, 2005; Despland, Michel, & de Roten, 2010) were included in this naturalistic study (mean age: 31 years; 56% female; all Caucasian). Cognitive errors and coping strategies were assessed using the Cognitive Errors Rating Scale (Drapeau et al., 2008) and Coping Patterns Rating Scale (Perry et al., 2005). These observer rated methods were applied to the verbatim transcriptions of all 4 therapy sessions completed by each patient. RESULTS: Results indicate change in both cognitive errors and coping patterns over the course of BPI, including an increase in the Overall Coping Functioning and a decrease in unhelpful coping processes, such as isolation, which reflects a shift in participant appraisal towards stress appraised as a challenge at the end of treatment. These changes predicted symptom change at the end of treatment. While cognitive errors also changed over the course of BPI, no predictive effect was found with regard to symptom change. CONCLUSIONS: These results are interpreted within the framework of common change principles in psychotherapy. Implications and future research are discussed.

A Change in the Epidemiology of Infections Due to Extended-Spectrum b-Lactamase–Producing Organisms

Extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) form a heterogeneous group that share the property of hydrolytic activity against the oxyimino-β-lactams while remaining susceptible to inhibition by β-lactamase inhibitors, such as clavulanic acid. From a clinical point of view, they are important because they confer resistance to penicillins, aztreonam, and cephalosporins, and ESBL-producing organisms are typically also resistant to aminoglycosides, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and quinolones [1]. Until recently, the main problem posed by ESBLs was related to nosocomial outbreaks caused by ESBL-producing Klebsiella species. These outbreaks are usually clonal, the strains are mainly spread through cross-transmission, and the risk factors are similar to those found for other multidrug-resistant nosocomial pathogens [2]. In Europe and the United States, most ESBL-producing Klebsiella isolates harbored enzymes belonging to the TEM and SHV families [3]. Detection of colonized patients by performing surveillance cultures within affected units, isolation precautions for colonized patients, and restriction of oxyimino-β-lactam use are frequently useful for the control of these outbreaks [1]. There is no evidence that hospital-acquired ESBL-producing klebsiellae are decreasing in importance—in fact, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that 20.6% of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates from United States intensive care units in 2003 were probable producers of ESBL [4]. This represented a 47% increase, compared with the preceding 5 years. However, during the last few years, an impressive increase in the number of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli (and, less frequently, other Enterobacteriaceae) is being described in several parts of the world [5–8]. This emergent phenomenon shows some differences from the problem posed by Klebsiella species; many of these ESBL-producing E. coli are isolated …

Quantification of the genetic change in the transition of Rhodnius pallescens Barber, 1932 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) from field to laboratory

Previous studies have reported genetic differences between wild-caught sylvatic, domestic and laboratory pop-ulations of several Triatominae species. The differences between sylvatic and laboratory colonies parallel are similar to the differences observed between sylvatic and domestic populations. Laboratory colonies are frequently used as references for field populations, but the consequences of founder events on the genetic makeup of laboratory or domestic populations are rarely quantified. Our goal was to quantify the genetic change in Rhodnius pallescens populations artificially submitted to founder effects via laboratory colonization. We compared the genetic makeup of two sylvatic populations and their laboratory descendants using a panel of 10 microsatellite markers. Both sylvatic populations were initially collected from palm trees, but the colonies differed in the number of founder insects and amount of time kept in the laboratory. We evaluated allelic polymorphism, differences between expected and observed heterozygosity, estimates of population differentiation (Fst) and inbreeding (Fis, Fit) and cluster analyses based on Nei's distances. We found a unique genetic structure for each sample population, with significant differentiation between the field insects and each of the laboratory generations. These analyses showed strong founder effects and showed that genetic drift had led to a genetic equilibrium over several generations of isolation. Our results suggest that laboratory colonies of R. pallescens have a different genetic structure than their wild relatives and similar processes likely affect other Triatominae laboratory stocks.

Change in mutation patterns of Plasmodium vivax dihydrofolate reductase (Pvdhfr) and dihydropteroate synthase (Pvdhps) in P. vivax isolates from malaria endemic areas of Thailand

Malaria is the most important public health problem in several countries. In Thailand, co-infections of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum are common. We examined the prevalence and patterns of mutations in P. vivax dihydrofolate reductase (Pvdhfr) and P. vivax dihydropteroate synthase (Pvdhps) in 103 blood samples collected from patients with P. vivax infection who had attended the malaria clinic in Mae Sot, Tak Province during 2009 and 2010. Using nested polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorfism, we examined single nucleotide polymorphisms-haplotypes at amino acid positions 13, 33, 57, 58, 61, 117 and 173 of Pvdhfr and 383 and 553 of Pvdhps. All parasite isolates carried mutant Pvdhfr alleles, of which the most common alleles were triple mutants (99%). Eight different types of Pvdhfr and combination alleles were found, as follows: 57I/58R/117T, 57I/58R/117T, 57I/58R/117T/N, 57L/58R/117T, 57L/58R/117T, 58R/61M/117N, 58R/61M/117N and 13L/57L/58R/117T. The most common Pvdhfr alleles were 57I/58R/117T (77.7%), 57I/58R/117T/N (1%), 57L/58R/117T (5.8%) and 58R/61M/117N (14.5%). The most common Pvdhfr alleles were 57I/58R/117T (77.7%), 57I/58R/117T/N (1%), 57L/58R/117T (5.8%) and 58R/61M/117N (14.5%). Additionally, we recovered one isolate of a carrying a quadruple mutant allele, 13L/57L/58R/117T. The most prevalent Pvdhps allele was a single mutation in amino acid 383 (82.5%), followed by the wild-type A383/A553 (17.5%) allele. Results suggest that all P. vivax isolates in Thailand carry some combination of mutations in Pvdhfr and Pvdhps. Our findings demonstrate that development of new antifolate drugs effective against sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine-resistant P. vivax is required.

Biotic effects of the Chicxulub impact, K-T catastrophe and sea level change in Texas

Biotic effects of the Chicxulub impact, the K-T event and sea level change upon planktic foraminifera were evaluated in a new core and outcrops along the Brazos River, Texas, about 1000 km from the Chicxulub impact crater on Yucatan, Mexico. Sediment deposition occurred in a middle neritic environment that shallowed to inner neritic depths near the end of the Maastrichtian. The sea level fall scoured submarine channels, which were infilled by a sandstone complex with reworked Chicxulub impact spherules and clasts with spherules near the base. The original Chicxulub impact ejecta layer was discovered 45-60 cm below the sandstone complex, and predates the K-T mass extinction by about 300,000 years. Results show that the Chicxulub impact caused no species extinctions or any other significant biotic effects. The subsequent sea level fall to inner neritic depth resulted in the disappearance of all larger (>150 mu m) deeper dwelling species creating a pseudo-mass extinction and a survivor assemblage of small surface dwellers and low oxygen tolerant taxa. The K-T boundary and mass extinction was identified 40-80 cm above the sandstone complex where all but some heterohelicids, hedbergellids and the disaster opportunistic guembelitfids went extinct, coincident with the evolution of first Danian species and the global delta(13)C shift. These data reveal that sea level changes profoundly influenced marine assemblages in near shore environments, that the Chicxulub impact and K-T mass extinction are two separate and unrelated events, and that the biotic effects of this impact have been vastly overestimated. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Macronutrient composition of the diet and prospective weight change in participants of the EPIC-PANACEA study.

BACKGROUND The effect of the macronutrient composition of the usual diet on long term weight maintenance remains controversial. METHODS 373,803 subjects aged 25-70 years were recruited in 10 European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA project of the EPIC cohort. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated questionnaires and weight and height were measured at baseline and self-reported at follow-up in most centers. The association between weight change after 5 years of follow-up and the iso-energetic replacement of 5% of energy from one macronutrient by 5% of energy from another macronutrient was assessed using multivariate linear mixed-models. The risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to initial Body Mass Index. RESULTS A higher proportion of energy from fat at the expense of carbohydrates was not significantly associated with weight change after 5 years. However, a higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of fat was positively associated with weight gain. A higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of carbohydrates was also positively associated with weight gain, especially when carbohydrates were rich in fibre. The association between percentage of energy from protein and weight change was slightly stronger in overweight participants, former smokers, participants ≥60 years old, participants underreporting their energy intake and participants with a prudent dietary pattern. Compared to diets with no more than 14% of energy from protein, diets with more than 22% of energy from protein were associated with a 23-24% higher risk of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight and overweight subjects at baseline. CONCLUSION Our results show that participants consuming an amount of protein above the protein intake recommended by the American Diabetes Association may experience a higher risk of becoming overweight or obese during adult life.

The EU ‘2020 Energy Initiative’: The post-Lisbon pattern of change in EU energy policy

El novembre de 2010, la Comissió Europea ha finalment donat a conèixer la seva "Energia 2020 Comunicació", un document estratègic en el marc més ampli del programa "Europa 2020". Una estratègia per al desenvolupament sostenible intel · ligent, i creixement inclusiu posa les bases d'un nou enfocament a la política d'energia a la UE. En el marc d'Europa 2020, la Iniciativa d'Energia recopila els resultats que ja s'han obtingut a través de la Estratègia de Lisboa 2000-2010, s'identifiquen les deficiències del passat i i introdueix nous objectius ambiciosos per a la UE en matèria de política energètica.

Continuity and change in the gender segregation of the medical profession in Britain and France

It is a well established fact that the entry of women into higher-level professional occupations has not resulted in their equal distribution within these occupations. Indeed, the emergence and persistence of horizontal and vertical gender segregation within the professions has been at the heart of the development of a range of alternative theoretical perspectives on both the "feminisation process" and the future of the "professions"more generally. Through an in-depth comparative analysis of the recent changes in the organisation and administration of the medical profession in Britain and France, this paper draws upon statistical data and biographical interviews with male and female general practitioners (GPs) in both countries in order to discuss and review a variety of approaches that have been adopted to explain and analyse the "eminisation" process of higher-level professions. Our conclusions review the theoretical debates in the light of the evidence we have presented. It is argued that, despite important elements of continuity in respect of gendered occupational structuring in both countries, national variations in both professional and domestic gendered architectures lead to different outcomes as far as the extent and patterns of internal occupational segregation are concerned. Both female and male doctors are currently seeking - with some effect - to resist thepressures of medicine on family life.

Predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale after brain trauma: change in trend over the past ten years.

BACKGROUND: Age and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission are considered important predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury. We investigated the predictive value of the GCS in a large group of patients whose computerised multimodal bedside monitoring data had been collected over the previous 10 years. METHODS: Data from 358 subjects with head injury, collected between 1992 and 2001, were analysed retrospectively. Patients were grouped according to year of admission. Glasgow Outcome Scores (GOS) were determined at six months. Spearman's correlation coefficients between GCS and GOS scores were calculated for each year. RESULTS: On average 34 (SD: 7) patients were monitored every year. We found a significant correlation between the GCS and GOS for the first five years (overall 1992-1996: r = 0.41; p<0.00001; n = 183) and consistent lack of correlations from 1997 onwards (overall 1997-2001: r = 0.091; p = 0.226; n = 175). In contrast, correlations between age and GOS were in both time periods significant and similar (r = -0.24 v r = -0.24; p<0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The admission GCS lost its predictive value for outcome in this group of patients from 1997 onwards. The predictive value of the GCS should be carefully reconsidered when building prognostic models incorporating multimodality monitoring after head injury.