Dynamics of pulsed flow in an elastic tube

Internal haemorrhage, often leading to cardio-vascular arrest happens to be one of the prime sources of high fatality rates in mammals. We propose a simplistic model of fluid flow in our attempt to specify the location of the haemorrhagic spot, which, if located accurately, could possibly be operated leading to an instant cure. The model we employ for the purpose is basically fluid mechanical in origin and consists of a viscous fluid, pumped by a periodic force and flowing through an elastic tube. The analogy is with that of blood, pumped from the heart and flowing through an artery or vein. Our results, aided by graphical illustrations, match reasonably well with experimental observations.

Rapid emergence of multidrug resistant, H58-lineage Salmonella typhi in Blantyre, Malawi

INTRODUCTION: Between 1998 and 2010, S. Typhi was an uncommon cause of bloodstream infection (BSI) in Blantyre, Malawi and it was usually susceptible to first-line antimicrobial therapy. In 2011 an increase in a multidrug resistant (MDR) strain was detected through routine bacteriological surveillance conducted at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH).

METHODS: Longitudinal trends in culture-confirmed Typhoid admissions at QECH were described between 1998-2014. A retrospective review of patient cases notes was conducted, focusing on clinical presentation, prevalence of HIV and case-fatality. Isolates of S. Typhi were sequenced and the phylogeny of Typhoid in Blantyre was reconstructed and placed in a global context.

RESULTS: Between 1998-2010, there were a mean of 14 microbiological diagnoses of Typhoid/year at QECH, of which 6.8% were MDR. This increased to 67 in 2011 and 782 in 2014 at which time 97% were MDR. The disease predominantly affected children and young adults (median age 11 [IQR 6-21] in 2014). The prevalence of HIV in adult patients was 16.7% [8/48], similar to that of the general population (17.8%). Overall, the case fatality rate was 2.5% (3/94). Complications included anaemia, myocarditis, pneumonia and intestinal perforation. 112 isolates were sequenced and the phylogeny demonstrated the introduction and clonal expansion of the H58 lineage of S. Typhi.

CONCLUSIONS: Since 2011, there has been a rapid increase in the incidence of multidrug resistant, H58-lineage Typhoid in Blantyre. This is one of a number of reports of the re-emergence of Typhoid in Southern and Eastern Africa. There is an urgent need to understand the reservoirs and transmission of disease and how to arrest this regional increase.

Clinical Outcomes in 3343 Children and Adults with Rheumatic Heart Disease from 14 Low and Middle Income Countries: 2-Year Follow-up of the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY study)

BACKGROUND: -There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) or information on their predictors. We report the two year follow-up of individuals with RHD from 14 low and middle income countries in Africa and Asia.

METHODS: -Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for two years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), recurrent acute rheumatic fever (ARF), and infective endocarditis (IE).

RESULTS: -Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age 28 years, interquartile range 18 to 40), the two year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio (HR) 2.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80-3.11), CHF (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.70-2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.32-2.10), atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.10-1.78) and older age (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.02 per year increase) at enrolment. Post-primary education (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54-0.85) and female sex (HR 0.65, 95%CI 0.52-0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. 204 (6.9%) had new CHF (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or TIA (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had ARF (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had IE (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/TIA or systemic embolism. Patients from low and lower-middle income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality compared to patients from upper-middle income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle income than in lower-middle- or low-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS: -Patients with clinical RHD have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low and lower-middle income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and treatment of clinical RHD are required to improve outcomes.

Factors affecting the prognosis of Albanian adult patients with generalized tetanus

Background. Despite systematic vaccination of the population, tetanus continues to be a health problem in Albania, as in some other developing countries. In this study, our intent was to evaluate prognostic factors relating to death in adult patients with generalized tetanus. Methodology and patients. All the patients (60) included in the study were hospitalized at the regional hospitals of Shkodra and Korça, and the University Hospital Centre “Mother Theresa” of Tirana, Albania, during the period of 1984-2004. They had a mean age of 49.1+14.4 years, 43 (71.7%) were males and 40 (66.6%) of them lived in rural areas. The mean incubation period was 12 days and the case-fatality rate (CFR) was 38.3%. Results. The CFR in patients with an onset period ≥2 days was 21.7% and in those with <2 days was 48.6%, OR=0.29 (p<0.05). Patients >50 years old had a CFR=60.87% (OR=7, p<0.05). We found the high CFR to be significantly associated with urban residency, male gender, complicated wound, head localization, fever ≥ 38.4 °C, tachycardia > 120 beats/min, and hypertension. Discussion. The main prognostic factor of those analyzed in our study appeared to be the onset period and the age of the patients. We didn’t find significant differences in CFR in patients with different incubation periods. Clinicians must take into account that wound complication and localization, tachycardia and hypertension, high fever, male gender and urban residency significantly influence the prognoses of adults with generalized tetanus.

Stroke in patients with diabetes mellitus: a study from North Western Nigeria.

Background: Stroke is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide and apart from being exceedingly harmful in diabetics, stroke is a disabling disorder. The study was undertaken to describe the clinical characteristics, outcome pattern and predictors of mortality in a cohort of diabetic patients presenting with stroke in two tertiary health facilities in North Western Nigeria. Method: Out of all stroke patients seen from June 2007 to February 2011, persons with diabetes mellitus presenting with stroke in the emergency unit of the two tertiary hospitals in Kano were consecutively recruited for the study. Classification of stroke into hemorrhagic and infarctive subtypes was based on brain computerized tomography (CT), brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. Follow-up period was for thirty days. Result: Out of the five hundred and thirty six stroke patients seen during the study period, 85 (15.9%) patients, comprising 48 (56.5%) males, had diabetes. Thirty eight (44.7%) of the identified diabetics were previously undiagnosed. Sixty four (75.3%) had infarctive stroke. One-month case fatality rate was 30.6%. Factors associated with death included male sex, past history of TIA, abnormal respiratory pattern, hemorrhagic stroke, aspiration pneumonitis, and worsening GCS. Aspiration pneumonitis and worsening GCS were independent predictors of one month mortality of stroke in the patients. Conclusion: In DM patients studied, infarctive stroke was more common, case fatality was 30.6%. Male gender, past history of TIA, abnormal respiratory pattern, hemorrhagic stroke, aspiration pneumonitis, and worsening Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) were associated with mortality. Aspiration pneumonitis and worsening GCS were independent predictors of one month mortality of stroke in diabetic patients.

Usefulness of clinical observations and blood chemistry values for predicting clinical outcomes in dairy goats with pregnancy toxaemia

Background Pregnancy toxaemia (PT) is a disease that affects pregnant goats during their last month of gestation and is characterized by a high case fatality rate. This study involved 32 does maintained on a commercial dairy goat farm that were diagnosed with PT. A physical examination was performed on and haematology parameters obtained from each doe, at the time of diagnosis. The data from the 24 PT goats that died was compared with the corresponding data from the 8 PT goats that survived. Results Polypnea, swollen limbs, anorexia with absence of ruminal motility, recumbency, nervous signs and drooping ears were the most frequently observed clinical manifestations. Nineteen out of 21 recumbent goats died. Sixteen out of 17 goats with anorexia and absence of ruminal motility died. Mean beta-hydroxybutyric acid (BHBA) values in the goats that died were not significantly different from those in goats that survived. The blood values for pH and pCO2 (p < 0.005) as well as for HCO3 −, BE and K+ (p < 0.001) were significantly lower in the goats that died than in those that survived. Conclusions The clinical signs most indicative of a poor prognosis are anorexia with absence of ruminal motility and recumbency. Among the blood parameters to be considered, hypokalaemia and metabolic acidosis are the most relevant. Goats with PT have a high mortality and their condition can deteriorate very fast. Based on the authors’s experience, a good strategy to minimize the economic losses caused by PT is to focus on the offspring survival rate since an early decision (induction of kidding or caesarian surgery) can increase the number of alive kids.

Determinación del comportamiento del riesgo cardiovascular en paciente postrasplante hepatico en Fundacion Cardioinfantil

El trasplante hepático es una opción terapéutica para enfermedad hepática avanzada cada vez más frecuente en Colombia. La sobrevida del 80% a 5 años conlleva a un aumento del riesgo cardiovascular y de eventos cardiovasculares, por esta razón esta investigación determina el comportamiento del riesgo cardiovascular en los pacientes con trasplante hepático de la Fundación Cardioinfantil, realizado en 3 años de seguimiento . Lo encontrado en esta investigación es que existe un aumento del riesgo cardiovascular a tres años en pacientes post trasplante hepático, estadísticamente significativo, principalmente secundario a hipertensión, diabetes e hipertrigliceridemia. El aumento es mayor a lo descrito en la población general, y similar a otros pacientes trasplantados, en un periodo de 5 años

Risk factors associated with hantavirosis fatality: a regional analysis from a case-control study in Brazil

Introduction: In Brazil, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) has a high lethality rate that varies by region. This study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with fatal hantavirosis. Methods: This study was a case-control study that included all laboratory confirmed cases of hantavirosis. The cases were stratified by the different Brazilian regions using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System. “Cases” were patients who progressed to death, whereas “controls” were patients who were cured. The odds ratio (OR) and the adjusted OR were calculated. Results: Overall, 158 cases and 281 controls were included in this study. In the Midwest region, the cases were 60% less likely to present with flank pain, and the time between the beginning of symptoms and death was shorter than the time between the beginning of symptoms and a cure. In the Southeast region, the cases were 60% less likely to present with thrombocytopenia or reside in rural areas compared to those who progressed to a cure. Additionally, the cases sought medical assistance, notification and investigation more quickly than the controls. In the Southern region, the cases that died were 70% less likely to be male compared to the controls. Conclusions: HCPS manifests with nonspecific symptoms, and there are few published studies related to the condition, so determining a patient's therapeutic strategy is difficult. This study presents findings from different Brazilian regions and highlights the need for further investigations to improve comprehension about regional risk factors associated with hantavirosis and to reduce morbimortality.

Can we continue to neglect genomic variation in introgression rates when inferring the history of speciation? A case study in a Mytilus hybrid zone.

The use of molecular data to reconstruct the history of divergence and gene flow between populations of closely related taxa represents a challenging problem. It has been proposed that the long-standing debate about the geography of speciation can be resolved by comparing the likelihoods of a model of isolation with migration and a model of secondary contact. However, data are commonly only fit to a model of isolation with migration and rarely tested against the secondary contact alternative. Furthermore, most demographic inference methods have neglected variation in introgression rates and assume that the gene flow parameter (Nm) is similar among loci. Here, we show that neglecting this source of variation can give misleading results. We analysed DNA sequences sampled from populations of the marine mussels, Mytilus edulis and M. galloprovincialis, across a well-studied mosaic hybrid zone in Europe and evaluated various scenarios of speciation, with or without variation in introgression rates, using an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach. Models with heterogeneous gene flow across loci always outperformed models assuming equal migration rates irrespective of the history of gene flow being considered. By incorporating this heterogeneity, the best-supported scenario was a long period of allopatric isolation during the first three-quarters of the time since divergence followed by secondary contact and introgression during the last quarter. By contrast, constraining migration to be homogeneous failed to discriminate among any of the different models of gene flow tested. Our simulations thus provide statistical support for the secondary contact scenario in the European Mytilus hybrid zone that the standard coalescent approach failed to confirm. Our results demonstrate that genomic variation in introgression rates can have profound impacts on the biological conclusions drawn from inference methods and needs to be incorporated in future studies.

Case study part 1: how to calculate appropriate deterministic long-term toxicity to exposure rates (TERs) for birds and mammals

In the European Union, first-tier assessment of the long-term risk to birds and mammals from pesticides is based on calculation of a deterministic long-term toxicity/exposure ratio(TERlt). The ratio is developed from generic herbivores and insectivores and applied to all species. This paper describes two case studies that implement proposed improvements to the way long-term risk is assessed. These refined methods require calculation of a TER for each of five identified phases of reproduction (phase-specific TERs) and use of adjusted No Observed Effect Levels (NOELs)to incorporate variation in species sensitivity to pesticides. They also involve progressive refinement of the exposure estimate so that it applies to particular species, rather than generic indicators, and relates spraying date to onset of reproduction. The effect of using these new methods on the assessment of risk is described. Each refinement did not necessarily alter the calculated TER value in a way that was either predictable or consistent across both case studies. However, use of adjusted NOELs always reduced TERs, and relating spraying date to onset of reproduction increased most phase-specific TERs. The case studies suggested that the current first-tier TERlt assessment may underestimate risk in some circumstances and that phase-specific assessments can help identify appropriate risk-reduction measures. The way in which deterministic phase-specific assessments can currently be implemented to enhance first-tier assessment is outlined.

The safety impact of the 65 mph speed limit: a case study using Alabama accident records. Final grant report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Before the Public Utilities Commission of the State of California. Investigation on the Commission's own motion into rates, tolls, rules, charges, operations, practices, contracts, service and facilities of the Pacific Telephone and Telegraph Company: case no. 7409. Reporter's transcript.

Includes Prehearing conference, called v. A-B.

Education, earnings, and rates of return: The case of Taiwan

Educational planners and economists have long recognized the importance of education as a form of productive investment in both advanced countries and developing countries. In the case of Taiwan, along with impressive economic growth, there was an even faster rate of growth of the government's investment in education. This leads some to question whether education has any role in economic development. ^ The purpose of this study is to provide a broad overview of the role of education, in terms of private rates of return to education, in Taiwan. In the process, a variety of hypotheses about human capital theory are examined and an empirical study of Taiwan's earnings functions are tested to show that education can be an important instrument to increase private rate of return, even under conditions of scarcity of natural and physical resources. Data was collected using the Manpower Survey and Manpower Utilization Survey, conducted by the government. Research questions were analyzed using descriptive statistics, frequencies, and regression analysis. ^ Results indicated that the Manpower Development Plans have been the decisive influence in allowing Taiwan to develop its human resources and achieve success in meeting the needs of Taiwan's economy. The structure of age-earnings profiles showed a strong relationship between earnings and education, and the profiles that successively shift upward are associated with higher levels of education. In the cross-sectional results of the rate of return in 1997, each additional year of schooling leads to a 6.2% increase in income. As to the private rates of return to different levels of education, the results found that the private rates of return are 2.88%, 4.85% and 10.05% for primary, secondary and higher education respectively. In an intertemporal comparison for 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1997, the results showed no significant trend except the private rates of return for primary education have been falling from 3.9% to 2.88%. ^ On the basis of this study, for individual student or family in Taiwan, there is likely to be a strong demand for education, particularly at the higher level. Therefore, a well-developed higher educational level becomes essential and the content of curriculum in higher education becomes another crucial question facing planners in Taiwan if they are going to use education as a means to foster economic development. ^

Online Pricing Practice for Hotel Room Rates in China: The Case of Shanghai

Travel websites that enable hotel room reservations have created unprecedented business opportunities. However, they have also overloaded hotel customers with information. This situation is particularly true of China, an emerging country with the largest population in the world and the most promising growth prospect in tourism. This study investigated the room-rate pricing practice of five online distribution channels, measured by the lowest available rates. These online channels priced hotels of different categories in Shanghai, China’s largest city. Empirical findings indicated that local websites offered lower room rates than international websites for the selected hotels in different categories. Specifically, Chinatravel consistently offered the lowest room rates for the selected hotels.