Factor shares at the sector level, Colombia 1990-2005

In general, empirical studies on economics rely on the assumption of constant capital share of income both at the aggregate level and at the sector level. However, there is no empirical evidence supporting the constancy of capital share at the sector level. In this paper, using Colombian data, we measure capital share for 48 sectors during the period 1990-2005. We also explore the relation between capital's share and factor prices and the behavior of capital share during the business cycle. The main results are the following: (i) capital share is not constant but, rather, has an increasing trend; (ii) capital shares growth rates positively correlate with sector value-added growth; (iii) the capital shares behave pro-cyclically; and (iv) there is a positive correlation between capital shares and real wages and a negative correlation between capital shares and interest rates. These results suggest that the usual assumption of constant factor shares is not accurate.

Seasonal adjustment and cointegration

El documento examina el efecto de filtros de ajuste en el tamaño y poder de prueba de cointegración que usan los residuales como pruebas ADF y PP, mediante procedimientos MonteCarlo y una aplicación empírica. Nuestros resultados indican que el uso de filtros distorsiona el tamaño y reduce el poder de estas pruebas.

Auge minero-energético, enfermedad holandesa e informalidad en Colombia: un análisis a partir de un modelo DSGE

El presente trabajo desarrolla un modelo macroeconómico de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico (DSGE), con el fin de analizar los efectos macroeconómicos que se derivan de simular un choque positivo al componente estocástico de la productividad del sector minero-energético. Este hecho genera un aumento generalizado de los salarios en el sector formal y en el recaudo tributario, incrementando el consumo total de los miembros del hogar. Esto genera un incremento del precio de los bienes no transables relativo al precio de los bienes transables, disminuyendo la tasa de cambio real (apreciación) y provocando un desplazamiento de los recursos productivos, desde el sector transable (manufacturero) al no-transable, seguido de un aumento en el PIB y empleo formal de la economía. Esto hace que el sector formal agregado absorba trabajadores desde el sector informal a través del subsector formal no-transable, lo que disminuye el PIB informal. En consecuencia, el consumo neto de los miembros informales disminuye, lo que incentiva a que algunos miembros del hogar no se empleen en el sector informal y prefieran quedarse desempleados. Por lo tanto, el resultado final sobre el mercado laboral es una disminución de los trabajadores informales, de los cuales una parte se encuentra en el sector formal, y la parte restante está en condición de desempleo.

Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles

This paper examines the degree of commonalities present in the cyclical behavior of the eight largest metropolitan housing markets in Australia. Using two techniques originally in the business cycle literature we consider the degree of synchronization present and secondly decompose the series’ into their permanent and cyclical components. Both empirical approaches reveal similar results. Sydney and Melbourne are closely related to each other and are relatively segmented from the smaller metropolitan areas. In contrast, there is substantial evidence of commonalities in the cyclical behavior of the remaining cities, especially those on the Eastern and Southern coasts of Australia.

Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles

This paper examines the degree of commonalities present in the cyclical behavior of the eight largest metropolitan housing markets in Australia. Using two techniques originally in the business cycle literature we consider the degree of synchronization present and secondly decompose the series’ into their permanent and cyclical components. Both empirical approaches reveal similar results. Sydney and Melbourne are closely related to each other and are relatively segmented from the smaller metropolitan areas. In contrast, there is substantial evidence of commonalities in the cyclical behavior of the remaining cities, especially those on the Eastern and Southern coasts of Australia.

Commodity risks and the cross-section of equity returns

The article examines whether commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of global equity returns. We employ a long-only equally-weighted portfolio of commodity futures and a term structure portfolio that captures phases of backwardation and contango as mimicking portfolios for commodity risk. We find that equity-sorted portfolios with greater sensitivities to the excess returns of the backwardation and contango portfolio command higher average excess returns, suggesting that when measured appropriately, commodity risk is pervasive in stocks. Our conclusions are robust to the addition to the pricing model of financial, macroeconomic and business cycle-based risk factors.

The credit spread dynamics of Latin American euro issues in international bond markets

This paper investigates two important relationships using the sovereign issues made by major Latin American economies in the international bond market: the determinants of credit spread changes using variables derived from structural and macroeconomic theory and the impact of a default episode on the underlying equilibrium dynamics. We find four significant determinants of credit spread changes: an asset and interest rate factor—consistent with structural models of credit spread pricing; the exchange rate—consistent with macroeconomic determinants and the slope of the yield curve—consistent with a business cycle effect. Also, an intra-regional analysis of sovereign yields reveals a shift in the long-run equilibrium dynamics around the Argentine default on the 23 December 2001.

Economic transition and commercial property markets : China and Poland

This paper discusses the economic transition and the property market emergence in transition economies. It compares the Chinese property market with the Polish market. It preliminarily examines market emergence and maturity in the context of economic transition, comparing the transitions with the emphasis placed on commercial property markets especially their formation and behaviour. Supply and demand for commercial space in China and Poland are also contrasted. As commercial property market behaviour is somewhat driven by market structure formation process and the business cycle, the transition has provided a “common ground” that enables similarities between the property markets in China and Poland. The challenge for state intervention is mainly due to the agency problem which is also a problem in mature markets; it appears that transitional economies do share common features in their emerging property markets. This paper suggests state intervention in market formation and emergence is necessary and essential. However the actual formation and behaviour of property markets have some distinctive characteristics. Value or implication of the study include: knowing the stage of market emergence is essential for making investment decisions, especially when identifying markets with varying backgrounds. This paper is also relevant to policy-makers in the process of facilitating transitions in emerging markets.

Economic transition and commercial property cycles in China

Drawn from a recently completed study, this paper aims at a better understanding of commercial property cycles in the transitional economy of China. It examines the behaviour of the property submarket system in China and considers structural changes in the socio-economic system as a primary factor in addressing the research problem. The study suggests that the underlying social and economic structure has greatly determined market behaviour. It finds that radical changes can alter the formal structure (the designed structure) of the market system, including the property market structure, but cannot alter the informal structure (i.e. the emergent structure) at the similar rate. As the study shows, cycles in the commercial property market in the economic transition is largely a key resulting feature of the continuous structural change both at formal and informal levels in a way that is often imbalanced and not always consistently changing together. The same situation also applies to the transformation of inner-city built form, which is featured by a delayed change of physical building stock against the space demand trend that is underpinned by the socio-economic transition. Put simply, there is a supply lag, mainly in the form of changing land use and building stock replacement, against economic change (the business cycle). This affects the level of effective demand for office space and hence becomes a major force in shaping current office cycles.

Has the structural break slowed down growth rates of stock markets?

In this paper, we use the common structural break test suggested by Bai et al. (1998) to test for a common structural break in the stock prices of the US, the UK, and Japan. On the basis of the structural break, we divide each country's stock price series into sub-samples and investigate whether or not the structural break had slowed down the growth of stock markets. Our main findings are that when stock markets are modelled in a trivariate sense the common structural break turns out to be 1990:02, with the confidence interval including several episodes, such as the asset price bubble when housing prices and stock prices in Japan reached a peak in 1988/1989, the early 1990s recession in the UK, the business cycle peak of July 1990, the August 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the March 1991 business cycle trough. Annual average growth rates suggest that the structural break has slowed down the growth rate of the US, the UK and Japanese stock markets.

Financial development, shocks, and growth volatility

This paper uses spectral theory to develop the following two testable hypotheses in a unified framework for the predictions of business-cycle and endogenous growth models: (i) financial development affects only business-cycle volatility; and (ii) shocks affect both business-cycle volatility and long-run volatility of GDP growth. In other words, volatility caused by shocks is more persistent than that caused by financial underdevelopment. We decompose the business-cycle and long-run volatility by the spectral method and then test the hypotheses at the cross-country level. Empirical evidence provides support for both hypotheses. Higher private credit, a bank-based measure of financial development, dampens business-cycle volatility but not long-run volatility. Volatility of shocks, as measured by the volatility of changes in the terms of trade, magnifies both business-cycle and long-run volatility. The results are robust to accounting for endogeneity, a market-based measure of financial development, and an alternative method of volatility decomposition.

Risk management, optimal

Individuals continually confront a discrepancy between ever expanding and changing wants and the means that they have at their disposal, time, and income, to satisfy them. One of the consequences is the need to make constrained choices between alternatives that have uncertain outcomes. Risk is a different concept from uncertainty. Individual optimal risk management means reducing, eliminating, or fully bearing risk, after conducting a “cost-benefit” analysis. In practice, however, cognitive biases mean that many decisions are not economically rational, necessitating paternalistic government and judicial interventions. Systemic, or whole financial system collapse risk is, optimally managed using well-designed macroprudential regulatory tools. The source of this type of risk is the inherent dynamics of the financial system over the course of the business cycle, interacting with credit market negative externalities, often as in the case of the GFC, spawned by government regulatory failure

The efficient market hypothesis and corporate event waves: part II

This article is the second of a two-part series on the efficient market hypothesis corporate event waves. The ideas of market efficiency, or rational theory, and the behavioral hypothesis have been extensively used to explain the modern phenomena of corporate event waves. Some studies investigate the patterns of corporate events from a behavioral finance perspective and suggest that corporate announcement waves are driven by investor sentiment. Baker and Wurgler examine equity market timing as an aspect of real corporate financial policy. Sentiment can also explain IPO waves. Post-announcement returns and IPO volume are positively correlated to firms' capital demands and the level of investor optimism. Helwge and Liang examine the IPO cycles from hot to cold markets from 1975 to 2000. Corporate e vent wave scan also be explained by the neoclassical efficiency hypothesis, proposing that business cycle fluctuations and economic conditions drive firms' decisions on financing transactions.

What determines the yen swap spread?

We investigate if Japanese yen denominated interest rate swap spreads price risks in addition to liquidity and default risk. These additional risks include: the time-varying correlation between interest rates of different types and maturities; business cycle risk; and market skewness risk. Our analysis, over a number of different maturities and sample periods, supports the existence of an additional risk premium. We also show that the time-varying correlation between short term market interest rates (e.g., TIBOR) and the longer term Government bond yield (e.g., Gensaki) is of particular importance. Japanese yen swap spreads are shown to contain both pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical elements of business cycle risk, positive risk premia for skewness risk and variable risk premia for correlation risk (between fixed and floating interest rates).

The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

Lucas (1987) has shown the surprising result that the welfare cost of business cycles is quite small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-áedged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for the post-WWII era using the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for trends and cycles, which considers not only business-cycle uncertainty but also uncertainty from the stochastic trend in consumption. The post-WWII period is relatively quiet, with the welfare costs of uncertainty being about 0:9% of per-capita consumption. Although changing the decomposition method changed substantially initial results, the welfare cost of uncertainty is qualitatively small in the post-WWII era - about $175.00 a year per-capita in the U.S. We also computed the marginal welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty using this same technique. It is about twice as large as the welfare cost ñ$350.00 a year per-capita.