Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok - a tulipánmánia és a Déltengeri Társaság, I. rész (Bubbles and myths, crises and explanations: tulip mania and the South Sea bubble. I.)

A 2007 óta kibontakozó válság újból divatba hozta a korai buborékok és válságok témáját. A jelenlegi válság nyomán újraéledtek a makroökónómiai viták, kétségessé vált a "nagy mérséklődés" és az újklasszikus szintézis érvényessége. Az 1634-1637 közötti holland tulipánmánia - mint az első buborék - sokféle értelmezése ismeretes: a tömeghisztéria kitörésétől a hatékony pénzügyi piacok korai példáján át a kulturális sokkig. Áttekintve ezeket, a cikk visszavezeti a tulipánmánia közismert anekdotikus leírásait az eredeti forrásokig, és megmutatja, milyen módon és céllal használták fel ezeket a közgazdászok és történészek saját elemzéseikben. / === / The accounts of early bubbles and crises are becoming fashionable again in economic discourse during the recent downturn. The article, having looked at the revival of macroeconomic debate provoked by the failure of current theory, sums up various interpretations of the Dutch tulip mania of 1634-7. These range from an outburst of popular madness, through an early example of an efficient financial market, to an instance of culture shock. Some well-known anecdotes about tulip mania are traced back to their original sources, and the article explores the various patterns and intentions in the use economists and historians have made of them.

Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok - II/1. rész. A Déltengeri Társaság (Bubbles and myths crises and explanations II/1.: the South Sea bubble)

A cikk a tulipánmániával foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2009]). A Déltengeri Társaság 1720-as fellendülése és kipukkadása mindmáig egyike a pénzügyi történelem leghíresebb és leggyakrabban emlegetett buborékainak. A közgazdaságtanban a buborék sokáig nem volt fontos téma, de az utóbbi időben ismét divatba jött. A tanulmány először a buborékmetafora néhány irodalmi példáját mutatja be, majd összefoglalja az angol államadósság kialakulását, a korai modern fiskális-militarista állam létrejöttét és a pénzügyi forradalom különböző interpretációit. A Déltengeri Társaság történetének, az adósság-részvény csere lebonyolításának és a korabeli vélemények spektrumának ismertetése után áttekintést ad arról, milyen módon és céllal használták fel az 1720-as eseményeket közgazdászok és történészek saját magyarázataikban. Ezek skálája a tudatos csalástól a befektetők irracionális mániáján át a racionális buborék kialakulásáig terjed. / === / The first part of the study (published here in 2009) was devoted to "tulipmania". This article continues the account of early bubbles and crises with the 1720 boom and bust of the South Sea Company, which is to this day one of the best known and most cited examples in history. For several decades, bubbles were not seen as an important issue in economic and financial theory, but recent events have focused attention on them again. The author introduces some historical examples of the bubble metaphor in literature, before giving an account of the emergence of British public debt and the fiscal-military state, and summarizing various interpretations of the financial revolution. An account of the South Sea Bubble, a detailed description of the debt-equity swap, and citations from some contemporary investors and observers are followed by an overview of the way the events of 1720 were used subsequently by various economists and historians in their own theorizing and explanations. The interpretations placed on it range from deliberate fraud, through irrational investment mania, to the emergence of a rational bubble.

Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok II/2. rész. A Déltengeri Társaság (Bubbles and myths crises and explanations II/2.: the South Sea bubble)

A cikk a tulipánmániával foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2009]). A Déltengeri Társaság 1720-as fellendülése és kipukkadása mindmáig egyike a pénzügyi történelem leghíresebb és leggyakrabban emlegetett buborékainak. A közgazdaságtanban a buborék sokáig nem volt fontos téma, de az utóbbi időben ismét divatba jött. A tanulmány először a buborékmetafora néhány irodalmi példáját mutatja be, majd összefoglalja az angol államadósság kialakulását, a korai modern fiskális-militarista állam létrejöttét és a pénzügyi forradalom különböző interpretációit. A Déltengeri Társaság történetének, az adósság-részvény csere lebonyolításának és a korabeli vélemények spektrumának ismertetése után áttekintést ad arról, milyen módon és céllal használták fel az 1720-as eseményeket közgazdászok és történészek saját magyarázataikban. Ezek skálája a tudatos csalástól a befektetők irracionális mániáján át a racionális buborék kialakulásáig terjed. / === / The first part of the study (published here in 2009) was devoted to "tulip-mania". This article continues the account of early bubbles and crises with the 1720 boom and bust of the South Sea Company, which remains to this day one of the best known and most cited examples in history. For several decades, bubbles were not seen as an important issue in economic and financial theory, but recent events have focused attention on them again. The author introduces some historical examples of the bubble metaphor in literature, before describing the emergence of British public debt and the fiscal/military state, and summarizing various interpretations of the financial revolution. An account of the South Sea Bubble, a detailed description of the debt-equity swap, and citations from some contemporary investors and observers are followed by an overview of how the events of 1720 were used subsequently by various economists and historians in their theorizing and explanations. Such interpretations range from deliberate fraud, through irrational investment mania, to the emergence of a rational bubble.

Pore-water concentration of chloride in sediment cores and equilibrium temperatures and gas bubble analysis at ROV stations from the Vodyanitskii mud volcano

Vodyanitskii mud volcano is located at a depth of about 2070 m in the Sorokin Trough, Black sea. It is a 500-m wide and 20-m high cone surrounded by a depression, which is typical of many mud volcanoes in the Black Sea. 75 kHz sidescan sonar show different generations of mud flows that include mud breccia, authigenic carbonates, and gas hydrates that were sampled by gravity coring. The fluids that flow through or erupt with the mud are enriched in chloride (up to 650 mmol L**-1 at 150-cm sediment depth) suggesting a deep source, which is similar to the fluids of the close-by Dvurechenskii mud volcano. Direct observation with the remotely operated vehicle Quest revealed gas bubbles emanating at two distinct sites at the crest of the mud volcano, which confirms earlier observations of bubble-induced hydroacoustic anomalies in echosounder records. The sediments at the main bubble emission site show a thermal anomaly with temperatures at 60 cm sediment depth that were 0.9 °C warmer than the bottom water. Chemical and isotopic analyses of the emanated gas revealed that it consisted primarily of methane (99.8%) and was of microbial origin (dD-CH4 = -170.8 per mil (SMOW), d13C-CH4 = -61.0 per mil (V-PDB), d13C-C2H6 = -44.0 per mil (V-PDB)). The gas flux was estimated using the video observations of the ROV. Assuming that the flux is constant with time, about 0.9 ± 0.5 x 10**6 mol of methane is released every year. This value is of the same order-of-magnitude as reported fluxes of dissolved methane released with pore water at other mud volcanoes. This suggests that bubble emanation is a significant pathway transporting methane from the sediments into the water column.

Lily with bubble gum

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Estimating abundance and spatial distribution patterns of the bubble crab Dotilla fenestrata (Crustacea : Brachyura)

The bubble crab Dotilla fenestrata forms very dense populations on the sand flats of the eastern coast of Inhaca Island, Mozambique, making it an interesting biological model to examine spatial distribution patterns and test the relative efficiency of common sampling methods. Due to its apparent ecological importance within the sandy intertidal community, understanding the factors ruling the dynamics of Dotilla populations is also a key issue. In this study, different techniques of estimating crab density are described, and the trends of spatial distribution of the different population categories are shown. The studied populations are arranged in discrete patches located at the well-drained crests of nearly parallel mega sand ripples. For a given sample size, there was an obvious gain in precision by using a stratified random sampling technique, considering discrete patches as strata, compared to the simple random design. Density average and variance differed considerably among patches since juveniles and ovigerous females were found clumped, with higher densities at the lower and upper shore levels, respectively. Burrow counting was found to be an adequate method for large-scale sampling, although consistently underestimating actual crab density by nearly half. Regression analyses suggested that crabs smaller than 2.9 mm carapace width tend to be undetected in visual burrow counts. A visual survey of sampling plots over several patches of a large Dotilla population showed that crab density varied in an interesting oscillating pattern, apparently following the topography of the sand flat. Patches extending to the lower shore contained higher densities than those mostly covering the higher shore. Within-patch density variability also pointed to the same trend, but the density increment towards the lowest shore level varied greatly among the patches compared.

EFFECTS OF BUBBLE-FACILITATED VOC TRANSPORT FROM LNAPL SMEAR ZONES ON VAPOR INTRUSION

Light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) sources can pose a significant threat to indoor air through vapour intrusion (VI). Most conceptual and numerical models of VI assume that the transport of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is a diffusion-limited process. Recently, alternate conditions have been identified that could lead to faster transport, including the presence of preferential pathways and methanogenic gas production. In this study, an additional mechanism that could lead to faster transport was investigated: bubble-facilitated VOC transport from LNAPL smear zones. A laboratory investigation was preformed using pentane in one-dimensional laboratory columns and two-dimensional visualization experiments. Results of the column experiments showed that average VOC mass fluxes in the bubble-facilitated columns were over two orders of magnitude greater than in the diffusion-limited columns. In addition, the flux signal was intermittent, consistent with expectations of bubble-facilitated transport as bubbles expand, mobilize and are released to the vadose zone at various times during the test. The results from the visualization experiments showed gas fingers growing and mobilizing over time, which supports the findings of the column experiments. In conclusion, these results demonstrate the potential for bubble-facilitated VOC transport to affect mass transfer in LNAPL smear zones, and lead to increased indoor air concentrations by VI.

Growing up in a bubble: using germ-free animals to assess the influence of the gut microbiota on brain and behavior

There is a growing recognition of the importance of the commensal intestinal microbiota in the development and later function of the central nervous system. Research using germ-free mice (mice raised without any exposure to microorganisms) has provided some of the most persuasive evidence for a role of these bacteria in gut-brain signalling. Key findings show that the microbiota is necessary for normal stress responsivity, anxiety-like behaviors, sociability, and cognition. Furthermore, the microbiota maintains central nervous system homeostasis by regulating immune function and blood brain barrier integrity. Studies have also found that the gut microbiota influences neurotransmitter, synaptic, and neurotrophic signalling systems and neurogenesis. The principle advantage of the germ-free mouse model is in proof-of-principle studies and that a complete microbiota or defined consortiums of bacteria can be introduced at various developmental time points. However, a germ-free upbringing can induce permanent neurodevelopmental deficits that may deem the model unsuitable for specific scientific queries that do not involve early-life microbial deficiency. As such, alternatives and complementary strategies to the germ-free model are warranted and include antibiotic treatment to create microbiota-deficient animals at distinct time points across the lifespan. Increasing our understanding of the impact of the gut microbiota on brain and behavior has the potential to inform novel management strategies for stress-related gastrointestinal and neuropsychiatric disorders.

Avaliação de danos mecânicos causados em banana Nanicão durante as etapas de beneficiamento, transporte e embalagem

This study had as objective the evaluation of mechanical damages occurred in banana Nanicão during the improvement process, packing and distribution, identifying the probable critical points. The mechanical damages caused by transport, first cleaning; cleanness and sorting; preservation in the packing, transport, and mature were evaluated. The studied packing had been: torito wooden packing (18 kg), wood type ½ box, (13 kg) and cardboard (18 kg). The stage of preservation and transport of the fruits to the distribution center duplicated the light defects and quintupled the serious defects, causing rottenness after the acclimatization. The cardboard packing did not support the piling up and presented deformations, that resulted in the kneading the fruits of the inferior packing, causing a significant increase of the serious defects. The fruits conditioned in the involved packing of plastic bubble had presented an inferior number of serious damages when compared with the others packing, without the plastic.

Estudo de caso de uma situação atmosférica entre 12 e 19 de setembro de 2008, com algumas características semelhantes ao evento Catarina

Este trabalho apresenta uma análise das condições sinótica e dinâmica associadas ao desenvolvimento do ciclone ocorrido entre 12 e 19 de setembro de 2008, com o objetivo de destacar diferenças e semelhanças com o ambiente em que se inseriu o evento Catarina em março de 2004. As principais semelhanças foram encontradas no padrão sinótico geral: a ocorrência de um padrão típico de bloqueio do tipo dipolo associado à anomalia de vorticidade potencial em altos níveis; cavado em níveis médios com inclinação para oeste; a presença de uma coluna de vorticidade ciclônica desde a superfície até a baixa estratosfera; e, em superfície, o padrão de uma alta ao sul de uma baixa pressão. Apesar das semelhanças no padrão geral, diferenças ocorreram entre os dois eventos que influenciaram na intensidade dos sistemas: o Catarina ocorreu em latitudes mais baixas em relação ao caso de setembro de 2008; o padrão típico de bloqueio associado ao caso de setembro de 2008 durou um dia e meio, enquanto no evento Catarina foi de três dias; a configuração da advecção de temperatura na camada entre 1000-500 hPa favoreceu o deslocamento do evento de setembro de 2008 para leste/sudeste, ao contrário do Catarina, a advecção de ar quente a leste do ciclone foi praticamente suprimida e a tendência de altura geopotencial passou a ser positiva, padrões que impedem o deslocamento do sistema para leste; no caso de setembro de 2008 o padrão da inversão do gradiente meridional de temperatura potencial na superfície de -2,0 unidade de vorticidade potencial (UVP) foi caracterizado pela incursão de uma região alongada de ar quente vinda do equador em direção ao sul e ar frio vinda do sul em direção ao equador, enquanto no caso Catarina a inversão ocorre pelo isolamento de uma bolha de ar frio ao norte e uma bolha de ar quente ao sul, o que pode ter contribuído para maior duração do padrão de bloqueio, pois a dissipação neste caso é dificultada. Sistemas como o Catarina podem ser raros no Atlântico Sul, mas isso não ocorre em relação ao ambiente sinótico em que se formou o Catarina. Para melhor entender o processo atmosférico que levou à formação do Catarina, é necessário realizar experimentos numéricos de sensibilidade para o caso de setembro de 2008 com o objetivo de verificar a possibilidade do ciclone extratropical se tornar um ciclone tropical.

Supergraph techniques for D=3, N=1 broken supersymmetric theories

We enlarge the usual D = 3 N = 1 supergraph techniques to include the case of (explicitly or spontaneously) broken supersymmetric gauge theories. To illustrate the utility of these techniques, we calculate the two-loop effective potential of the SQED(3) by using the tadpole and the vacuum bubble methods. In these methods, to investigate the possibility of supersymmetry breaking, the superfields must be shifted by theta(alpha) dependent classical superfields (vacuum expectation values), what implies in the explicit breakdown of supersymmetry in the intermediate steps of the calculation. Nevertheless, after studying the minimum of the resulting effective potential, we find that supersymmetry is conserved, while gauge symmetry is dynamically broken, with a mass generated for the gauge superfield.

Influence of temperature on continuous high gravity brewing with yeasts immobilized on spent grains

Flavor compounds` formation and fermentative parameters of continuous high gravity brewing with yeasts immobilized on spent grains were evaluated at three different temperatures (7, 10 and 15 degrees C). The assays were performed in a bubble column reactor at constant dilution rate (0.05 h(-1)) and total gas flow rate (240 ml/min of CO(2) and 10 ml/min of air), with high-gravity all-malt wort (15 degrees Plato). The results revealed that as the fermentation temperature was increased from 7 to 15 degrees C, the apparent and real degrees of fermentation, rate of extract consumption, ethanol volumetric productivity and consumption of free amino nitrogen (FAN) increased. In addition, beer produced at 15 degrees C presented a higher alcohols to esters ratio (2.2-2.4:1) similar to the optimum values described in the literature. It was thus concluded that primary high-gravity (15 degrees Plato) all-malt wort fermentation by continuous process with yeasts immobilized on spent grains, can be carried out with a good performance at 15 degrees C.

Piezoceramic Composite Actuators for Flow Control in Low Reynolds Number Airflow

The research presented here employs solid-state actuators for flow separation delay or for forced attachment of separated flow seen in airfoils at low Reynolds numbers. To reduce separation, periodic excitation to the flow around the leading edge of the airfoil is induced by Macro-Fiber Composite actuated clamped-free unimorph benders. An electromechanical model of the unimorph is briefly presented and parametric study is conducted to aid the design of a unimorph to output high deformation at a desired frequency. The optimum frequency and amplitude for lift improvement at post-stall angles are identified experimentally. Along with aerodynamic force and structural displacement measurements, helium bubble flow visualization is used to verify existing separated flow, and the attached flow induced by flow control. The lift enhancement induced by several flow control techniques is compared. A symmetric and non-uniform (3D) flow excitation results in the maximum lift enhancement at post-stall region at the lowest power consumption level. A maximum lift coefficient increase of 27.5% (in the post-stall region) is achieved at 125 Hz periodic excitation, with the 3D symmetric actuation mode at 5 m/s and the reduced frequency of 3.78. C(l,max) is increased 7.6% from the baseline.

Void fraction measurement and signal analysis from multiple-electrode impedance sensors

Void fraction sensors are important instruments not only for monitoring two-phase flow, but for furnishing an important parameter for obtaining flow map pattern and two-phase flow heat transfer coefficient as well. This work presents the experimental results obtained with the analysis of two axially spaced multiple-electrode impedance sensors tested in an upward air-water two-phase flow in a vertical tube for void fraction measurements. An electronic circuit was developed for signal generation and post-treatment of each sensor signal. By phase shifting the electrodes supplying the signal, it was possible to establish a rotating electric field sweeping across the test section. The fundamental principle of using a multiple-electrode configuration is based on reducing signal sensitivity to the non-uniform cross-section void fraction distribution problem. Static calibration curves were obtained for both sensors, and dynamic signal analyses for bubbly, slug, and turbulent churn flows were carried out. Flow parameters such as Taylor bubble velocity and length were obtained by using cross-correlation techniques. As an application of the void fraction tested, vertical flow pattern identification could be established by using the probability density function technique for void fractions ranging from 0% to nearly 70%.

Importância da hidrodinâmica na cinética de flotação de partículas grossas

The processes that govern the rate of particle recovery in a flotation cell include the following sub-processes: collision, attachment, and stability of the aggregate formed by particles and bubbles. Collision is controlled by bulk hydrodynamics inside the flotation cell, while attachment is largely dominated by variables that belong to the domain of surface chemistry (contact angle, induction time). As for the stability of the particle/bubble aggregate, its efficiency depends on both hydrodynamics plus surface chemistry variables of the system. The flotation recovery of coarse particles of apatite and glass spheres was measured by micro-flotation and batch flotation tests in which hydrodynamic parameters were evaluated, such as impeller rotational speed, diameter, and geometry, as well as particle size and density. Results revealed that a proper impeller rotational speed yielded turbulence levels, which enabled to keep particles fully suspended, this way optimizing the collision efficiency between particles and bubbles, without jeopardizing the stability of the particle-bubble aggregates.