Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Construction of a global map of human gene expression : the process, tools and analysis

This thesis studies human gene expression space using high throughput gene expression data from DNA microarrays. In molecular biology, high throughput techniques allow numerical measurements of expression of tens of thousands of genes simultaneously. In a single study, this data is traditionally obtained from a limited number of sample types with a small number of replicates. For organism-wide analysis, this data has been largely unavailable and the global structure of human transcriptome has remained unknown. This thesis introduces a human transcriptome map of different biological entities and analysis of its general structure. The map is constructed from gene expression data from the two largest public microarray data repositories, GEO and ArrayExpress. The creation of this map contributed to the development of ArrayExpress by identifying and retrofitting the previously unusable and missing data and by improving the access to its data. It also contributed to creation of several new tools for microarray data manipulation and establishment of data exchange between GEO and ArrayExpress. The data integration for the global map required creation of a new large ontology of human cell types, disease states, organism parts and cell lines. The ontology was used in a new text mining and decision tree based method for automatic conversion of human readable free text microarray data annotations into categorised format. The data comparability and minimisation of the systematic measurement errors that are characteristic to each lab- oratory in this large cross-laboratories integrated dataset, was ensured by computation of a range of microarray data quality metrics and exclusion of incomparable data. The structure of a global map of human gene expression was then explored by principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering using heuristics and help from another purpose built sample ontology. A preface and motivation to the construction and analysis of a global map of human gene expression is given by analysis of two microarray datasets of human malignant melanoma. The analysis of these sets incorporate indirect comparison of statistical methods for finding differentially expressed genes and point to the need to study gene expression on a global level.

An analytical approach to the study of a class of bi-state social interaction processes

Sufficient conditions for obtaining an equivalent linear model to classes of non-linear, bi-state, social interaction processes are derived. These parametric constraints, when satisfied, permit analytical determination of the dynamics of the non-linear process of social interaction.

A semi-analytical particle filter for identification of nonlinear oscillators

Particle filters find important applications in the problems of state and parameter estimations of dynamical systems of engineering interest. Since a typical filtering algorithm involves Monte Carlo simulations of the process equations, sample variance of the estimator is inversely proportional to the number of particles. The sample variance may be reduced if one uses a Rao-Blackwell marginalization of states and performs analytical computations as much as possible. In this work, we propose a semi-analytical particle filter, requiring no Rao-Blackwell marginalization, for state and parameter estimations of nonlinear dynamical systems with additively Gaussian process/observation noises. Through local linearizations of the nonlinear drift fields in the process/observation equations via explicit Ito-Taylor expansions, the given nonlinear system is transformed into an ensemble of locally linearized systems. Using the most recent observation, conditionally Gaussian posterior density functions of the linearized systems are analytically obtained through the Kalman filter. This information is further exploited within the particle filter algorithm for obtaining samples from the optimal posterior density of the states. The potential of the method in state/parameter estimations is demonstrated through numerical illustrations for a few nonlinear oscillators. The proposed filter is found to yield estimates with reduced sample variance and improved accuracy vis-a-vis results from a form of sequential importance sampling filter.

An analytical model for performance evaluation of multimedia applications over EDCA in an IEEE 802.11e WLAN

We extend the modeling heuristic of (Harsha et al. 2006. In IEEE IWQoS 06, pp 178 - 187) to evaluate the performance of an IEEE 802.11e infrastructure network carrying packet telephone calls, streaming video sessions and TCP controlled file downloads, using Enhanced Distributed Channel Access (EDCA). We identify the time boundaries of activities on the channel (called channel slot boundaries) and derive a Markov Renewal Process of the contending nodes on these epochs. This is achieved by the use of attempt probabilities of the contending nodes as those obtained from the saturation fixed point analysis of (Ramaiyan et al. 2005. In Proceedings ACM Sigmetrics, `05. Journal version accepted for publication in IEEE TON). Regenerative analysis on this MRP yields the desired steady state performance measures. We then use the MRP model to develop an effective bandwidth approach for obtaining a bound on the size of the buffer required at the video queue of the AP, such that the streaming video packet loss probability is kept to less than 1%. The results obtained match well with simulations using the network simulator, ns-2. We find that, with the default IEEE 802.11e EDCA parameters for access categories AC 1, AC 2 and AC 3, the voice call capacity decreases if even one streaming video session and one TCP file download are initiated by some wireless station. Subsequently, reducing the voice calls increases the video downlink stream throughput by 0.38 Mbps and file download capacity by 0.14 Mbps, for every voice call (for the 11 Mbps PHY). We find that a buffer size of 75KB is sufficient to ensure that the video packet loss probability at the QAP is within 1%.

Analytical modelling of integrated solar drying system

The drying of fruit and vegetables is a subject of great importance. Dried fruit and vegetables have gained commercial importance, and their growth on a commercial scale has become an important sector of the agricultural industry. However, food drying is one of the most energy intensive processes of the major industrial process and accounts for up to 15 % of all industrial energy usage. Due to increasingly high electricity prices and environmental concern, a dryer using traditional energy sources is not a feasible option anymore. Therefore, an alternative/renewable energy source is needed. In this regard, an integrated solar drying system that includes highly efficient double-pass counter flow v-groove solar collector, conical-shaped rock-bed thermal storage, auxiliary heater, the centrifugal fan and the drying chamber has been designed and constructed. Mathematical model for all the individual components as well as an integrated model combining all components of the drying system has been developed. Mathematical equations were solved using MATLAB program. This paper presents the analytical model and key finding of the simulation.

Reactive Pulsed Laser Deposition of titanium nitride thin film: Optimization of process parameters using Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry

Reactive Pulsed Laser Deposition is a single step process wherein the ablated elemental metal reacts with a low pressure ambient gas to form a compound. We report here a Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry based analytical methodology to conduct minimum number of experiments to arrive at optimal process parameters to obtain high quality TiN thin film. Quality of these films was confirmed by electron microscopic analysis. This methodology can be extended for optimization of other process parameters and materials. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analytical models for capacity estimation of IEEE 802.11 WLANs using DCF for internet applications

We provide analytical models for capacity evaluation of an infrastructure IEEE 802.11 based network carrying TCP controlled file downloads or full-duplex packet telephone calls. In each case the analytical models utilize the attempt probabilities from a well known fixed-point based saturation analysis. For TCP controlled file downloads, following Bruno et al. (In Networking '04, LNCS 2042, pp. 626-637), we model the number of wireless stations (STAs) with ACKs as a Markov renewal process embedded at packet success instants. In our work, analysis of the evolution between the embedded instants is done by using saturation analysis to provide state dependent attempt probabilities. We show that in spite of its simplicity, our model works well, by comparing various simulated quantities, such as collision probability, with values predicted from our model. Next we consider N constant bit rate VoIP calls terminating at N STAs. We model the number of STAs that have an up-link voice packet as a Markov renewal process embedded at so called channel slot boundaries. Analysis of the evolution over a channel slot is done using saturation analysis as before. We find that again the AP is the bottleneck, and the system can support (in the sense of a bound on the probability of delay exceeding a given value) a number of calls less than that at which the arrival rate into the AP exceeds the average service rate applied to the AP. Finally, we extend the analytical model for VoIP calls to determine the call capacity of an 802.11b WLAN in a situation where VoIP calls originate from two different types of coders. We consider N-1 calls originating from Type 1 codecs and N-2 calls originating from Type 2 codecs. For G711 and G729 voice coders, we show that the analytical model again provides accurate results in comparison with simulations.

'Wet N2O oxidation' process and interface state density characterization of nanoscale nitrided SiO2 for flash memory application

In this paper we first present the 'wet N2O' furnace oxidation process to grow nitrided tunnel oxides in the thickness range 6 to 8 nm on silicon at a temperature of 800 degrees C. Electrical characteristics of MOS capacitors and MOSFETs fabricated using this oxide as gate oxide have been evaluated and the superior features of this oxide are ascertained The frequency response of the interface states, before and after subjecting the MOSFET gate oxide to constant current stress, is studied using a simple analytical model developed in this work.

Effect of process parameters on transport phenomena during solidification in the presence of electromagnetic stirring

In the present work, a numerical study is performed to predict the effect of process parameters on transport phenomena during solidification of aluminium alloy A356 in the presence of electromagnetic stirring. A set of single-phase governing equations of mass, momentum, energy and species conservation is used to represent the solidification process and the associated fluid flow, heat and mass transfer. In the model, the electromagnetic forces are incorporated using an analytical solution of Maxwell equation in the momentum conservation equations and the slurry rheology during solidification is represented using an experimentally determined variable viscosity function. Finally, the set of governing equations is solved for various process conditions using a pressure based finite volume technique, along with an enthalpy based phase change algorithm. In present work, the effect of stirring intensity and cooling rate are considered. It is found that increasing stirring intensity results in increase of slurry velocity and corresponding increase in the fraction of solid in the slurry. In addition, the increasing stirring intensity results uniform distribution of species and fraction of solid in the slurry. It is also found from the simulation that the distribution of solid fraction and species is dependent on cooling rate conditions. At low cooling rate, the fragmentation of dendrites from the solid/liquid interface is more.

Scalable non-linear Support Vector Machine using hierarchical clustering

This paper discusses a method for scaling SVM with Gaussian kernel function to handle large data sets by using a selective sampling strategy for the training set. It employs a scalable hierarchical clustering algorithm to construct cluster indexing structures of the training data in the kernel induced feature space. These are then used for selective sampling of the training data for SVM to impart scalability to the training process. Empirical studies made on real world data sets show that the proposed strategy performs well on large data sets.

An analytical model for the capacity estimation of combined VoIP and TCP file transfers over EDCA in an IEEE 802.11e WLAN

In this paper we develop and numerically explore the modeling heuristic of using saturation attempt probabilities as state dependent attempt probabilities in an IEEE 802.11e infrastructure network carrying packet telephone calls and TCP controlled file downloads, using Enhanced Distributed Channel Access (EDCA). We build upon the fixed point analysis and performance insights in [1]. When there are a certain number of nodes of each class contending for the channel (i.e., have nonempty queues), then their attempt probabilities are taken to be those obtained from saturation analysis for that number of nodes. Then we model the system queue dynamics at the network nodes. With the proposed heuristic, the system evolution at channel slot boundaries becomes a Markov renewal process, and regenerative analysis yields the desired performance measures.The results obtained from this approach match well with ns2 simulations. We find that, with the default IEEE 802.11e EDCA parameters for AC 1 and AC 3, the voice call capacity decreases if even one file download is initiated by some station. Subsequently, reducing the voice calls increases the file download capacity almost linearly (by 1/3 Mbps per voice call for the 11 Mbps PHY).

Therapeutic work with the present moment: A conversation analytical study of guidance into immediacy

Therapeutic work with the client’s present moment experience in existential therapy was studied by means of conversation analysis. Using publicly available video recordings of therapy sessions as data, an existential therapist’s practice of guiding a client into immediacy, or refocusing the talk on a client’s immediate experience, was described and compared with a therapist’s corresponding action in cognitive therapy. The study contributes to the description of interactional practice of existential therapy, and involves the first application of conversation analysis to a comparative study of psychotherapy process. The potential utility of this approach and the clinical and empirical implications of the present findings are discussed.

Hierarchical Directory-Based Shared Memory Architecture

We describe the design of a directory-based shared memory architecture on a hierarchical network of hypercubes. The distributed directory scheme comprises two separate hierarchical networks for handling cache requests and transfers. Further, the scheme assumes a single address space and each processing element views the entire network as contiguous memory space. The size of individual directories stored at each node of the network remains constant throughout the network. Although the size of the directory increases with the network size, the architecture is scalable. The results of the analytical studies demonstrate superior performance characteristics of our scheme compared with those of other schemes.

An analytical model for an IEEE~802.11 WLAN using DCF with two types of VoIP calls

In this paper we develop and numerically explore the modeling heuristic of using saturation attempt probabilities as state dependent attempt probabilities in an IEEE 802.11e infrastructure network carrying packet telephone calls and TCP controlled file downloads, using enhanced distributed channel access (EDCA). We build upon the fixed point analysis and performance insights. When there are a certain number of nodes of each class contending for the channel (i.e., have nonempty queues), then their attempt probabilities are taken to be those obtained from saturation analysis for that number of nodes. Then we model the system queue dynamics at the network nodes. With the proposed heuristic, the system evolution at channel slot boundaries becomes a Markov renewal process, and regenerative analysis yields the desired performance measures. The results obtained from this approach match well with ns2 simulations. We find that, with the default IEEE 802.11e EDCA parameters for AC 1 and AC 3, the voice call capacity decreases if even one file download is initiated by some station. Subsequently, reducing the voice calls increases the file download capacity almost linearly (by 1/3 Mbps per voice call for the 11 Mbps PHY)