The role of evacuation modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitation of the air-EXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certificaiton trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. Finally, the data requirements of aircraft evacuation models is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the University of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

Using mathematical models to predict the development of aircraft cabin fires

Computer based mathematical models describing aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost involved in performing large-scale fire experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be prohibitively high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a safe and viable reality. By describing the present capabilities and limitations of aircraft fire models, this paper will examine the future development of these models in the areas of large scale applications through parallel computing, combustion modelling and extinguishment modelling.

The airEXODUS evacuation model and its application to aircraft safety

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing full-scale certification trials are high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools are essential. Furthermore, evacuation models provide insight into the evacuation process that is impossible to derive from a single certification trial. The airEXODUS evacuation model has been under development since 1989 with support from the UK CAA and the aviation industry. In addition to describing the capabilities of the airEXODUS evacuation model, this paper describes the findings of a recent CAA project aimed at investigating model accuracy in predicting past certification trials. Furthermore, airEXODUS is used to examine issues related to the Blended Wing Body (BWB) and Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA). These radical new aircraft concepts pose considerable challenges to designers, operators and certification authorities. BWB concepts involving one or two decks with possibly four or more aisles offer even greater challenges. Can the largest exits currently available cope with passenger flow arising from four or five aisles? Do we need to consider new concepts in exit design? Should the main aisle be made wider to accommodate more passengers? In this paper we discuss various issues evacuation related issues associated VLTA and BWB aircraft and demonstrate how computer based evacuation models can be used to investigage these issues through examination of aisle/exit configurations for BWB cabin layouts.

The AASK Database V3.0: a database of human experience during aircraft evacuation incidents

This paper describes recent developments with the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database. The AASK database is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents developed by the Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich with support from the UK CAA. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. Access to the latest version of the database (AASK V3.0) is available over the Internet. AASK consists of information derived from both passenger and cabin crew interviews, information concerning fatalities and basic accident details. Also provided with AASK is the Seat Plan Viewer that graphically displays the starting locations of all the passengers - both survivors and fatalities - as well as the exits used by the survivors. Data entered into the AASK database is extracted from the transcripts supplied by the National Transportation Safety Board in the US and the Air Accident Investigation Branch in the UK. The quality and quantity of the data was very variable ranging from short summary reports of the accidents to boxes of individual accounts from passengers, crew and investigators. Data imported into AASK V3.0 includes information from 55 accidents and individual accounts from 1295 passengers and 110 crew.

Descripción de los casos de accidentes laborales ocurridos en una empresa manufacturera, 2010 al 2014

Introducción Debido a que los accidentes de origen ocupacional ocupan un lugar importante dentro de las causas de ausentismo, discapacidades y hasta las muertes se realizó la descripción de la accidentalidad, teniendo en cuenta factores como la severidad y tipo de lesión, el tipo de actividad laboral y re accidentalidad ocurrida en una empresa manufacturera en un periodo de 2010 al 2014. Objetivos Establecer la distribución de los accidentes laborales ocurridos en una empresa manufacturera en el periodo de 2010 al 2014 según edad, género, área laboral y tipo de lesión. Materiales y métodos Se realizó un estudio de corte transversal en donde se analizaron las características según los trabajadores y la empresa y se realizaron asociaciones para establecer cuáles eran los factores de riesgo para presentar re accidentalidad. Se tomó una empresa manufacturera del sector de producción de alimentos que cuenta con un total de 950 empleados, en riesgo de presentar accidentes laborales. Se seleccionaron 338 accidentes ocurridos en el periodo de 2010 y 2014.Se realizaron análisis de los accidentes según las variables de: género, área de trabajo y tipo de herida para determinar su distribución según dichos factores. Posteriormente se realizaron análisis bivariado por medio de asociaciones estadísticas usando el estadístico Chi cuadrado y pruebas no paramétricas o paramétricas según la distribución de normalidad de las variables cuantitativas. El programa que se usó para el análisis fue el de SPSS versión 22. Resultados El estudio identificó que la proporción de accidentes durante el periodo estudiado con respecto al número de trabajadores fue de 35,6% y de los 950 trabajadores el 28,8% presentaron accidentes que corresponde a los 274 trabajadores. La mediana de edad fue de 35 años y se presentó más frecuente en mujeres (55,6%). El área laboral en la que se presentaron mayor número de accidentes fue el área de manufactura (75,7%). La proporción de mujeres que presentaban mayor accidentes en el área de manufactura si representó una diferencia de 23,4% con respecto a la proporción de hombres que presentaron mayor accidentes en la misma área. Con respecto al tipo de lesión, se presentaron accidentes frecuentemente en miembros superiores y según el género, las mujeres presentaron 2,02% más accidentes en miembros superiores comparado con los hombres. Los análisis en cuanto a re accidentalidad determinaron que el 16,8% de los trabajadores presentaron más de un accidente y un trabajador presentó 5 accidentes en el periodo de tiempo estudiado en la empresa, la edad se relacionó significativamente con el hecho de presentar re accidentalidad.

Análise de barreiras e o modelo de ressonância funcional de acidentes de Erik Hollnagel

Partindo de apresentação da proposta de análise de acidentes baseada no modelo sistêmico e não linear de acidentes, dito de ressonância funcional, desenvolvido por Erik Hollnagel, este texto discute críticas às concepções deterministas de acidente e aos modelos lineares de representação desses eventos. Aspectos do modelo de ressonância funcional são usados como eixo definidor de proposta de agenda de discussões a ser desenvolvida pelos interessados no tema da análise de acidentes, destacando-se: a) a defesa do abandono da idéia de causas de acidentes e sua substituição pela de explicação desses eventos; b) apresentação dos conceitos de variabilidade de desempenhos e adaptações locais e a proposta de sua utilização como bases para a identificação de perfis ou aspectos típicos de acidentes. Por fim, discute-se a necessidade de incorporação dos conceitos apresentados no debate sobre novos caminhos para as práticas de análises e de prevenção de acidentes em nosso país.

Culpa da vítima: um modelo para perpetuar a impunidade nos acidentes do trabalho

Neste artigo analisam-se os laudos e dados obtidos das investigações de acidentes graves e fatais do trabalho efetuadas pelo Instituto de Criminalística (IC), Regional de Piracicaba. Foram analisados 71 laudos de acidentes ocorridos em 1998, 1999 e 2000. Os acidentes envolvendo máquinas representam 38,0%, seguido pelas quedas de altura (15,5%) e em terceiro lugar os causados por corrente elétrica (11,3%). Os laudos concluem que 80,0% dos acidentes são causados por atos inseguros cometidos pelos trabalhadores, enquanto que a falta de segurança ou condição insegura responde por 15,5% dos casos. A responsabilização das vítimas ocorre mesmo em situações de elevado risco em que não são adotadas as mínimas condições de segurança, com repercussão favorável ao interesse dos empregadores. Observa-se que estas conclusões refletem os modelos explicativos tradicionais, reducionistas, em que os acidentes são fenômenos simples, de causa única, centrada via de regra nos erros e falhas das próprias vítimas. A despeito das críticas que tem recebido nas duas últimas décadas no meio técnico e acadêmico, esta concepção mantém-se hegemônica prejudicando o desenvolvimento de políticas preventivas e a melhoria das condições de trabalho.

Blaming the victim: Aspects of the Brazilian case

This report describes the consequences and some aspects of the origin and development of victim blaming in accident analysis, and some methods for investigating such events, with particular emphasis on the situation in Brazil. In Brazil, the spread of this practice seems to have been helped by several factors. (1) the idea that occupational accidents are simple phenomena with a limited number of causal factors linked to unsafe actions and/or conditions. In the past, the theory of accident proneness had less influence than in other countries. (2) Government regulations that stipulate the hiring of health and safety officers, production of educational material, and preventive campaigns that emphasize the role of the victim's faulty behavior in the origin of an accident. (3) Mandatory implementation of standardized models for accident investigation directed toward searching for a single cause. Usually one conclusion, expressed in terms of unsafe acts or conditions, is formulated so that whoever performs an unsafe act is responsible for the accident. (4) Lack of knowledge, as shown in Brazilian publications on occupational accidents and in the evolution of studies on the nature of accident phenomena and of strategies adopted for their prevention.

Ação de vigilância em acidentes do trabalho com o uso Modelo de Análise e Prevenção de Acidentes (MAPA) em Piracicaba/SP

Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB

Tri-level study: modification. Task 1: final report on potential benefits of various improvements in vehicle systems in preventing accidents or reducing their severity. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Tri-level study: modification. Task 6: a final report on supplemental causation assessments through hypothesis testing.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

A study of severe vehicular accidents. Phase 2.

National Highway Safety Bureau, Washington, D.C.

Statistical evaluation of the effectiveness of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard 222: School Bus Seating and Crash Protection. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Pedestrian injury causation parameters - phase I. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Statistical views of transportation safety.

Mode of access: Internet.