The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part II: Processes leading to differences in MJO development

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. In Part II, the moisture budgets and moist entropy budgets are analyzed. Vertical subgrid diabatic heating profiles and vertical velocity profiles are also compared; these are related to the horizontal and vertical advective components of the moist entropy budget which contribute to gross moist stability, GMS, and normalized GMS (NGMS). The 4-km model with explicit convection and good MJO performance has a vertical heating structure that increases with height in the lower troposphere in regions of strong convection (like observations), whereas the 12-km model with parameterized convection and a poor MJO does not show this relationship. The 4-km explicit convection model also has a more top-heavy heating profile for the troposphere as a whole near and to the west of the active MJO-related convection, unlike the 12-km parameterized convection model. The dependence of entropy advection components on moisture convergence is fairly weak in all models, and differences between models are not always related to MJO performance, making comparisons to previous work somewhat inconclusive. However, models with relatively good MJO strength and propagation have a slightly larger increase of the vertical advective component with increasing moisture convergence, and their NGMS vertical terms have more variability in time and longitude, with total NGMS that is comparatively larger to the west and smaller to the east.

SYNTHESIS, CHARACTERIZATION AND THERMAL ANALYSIS OF 1:1 AND 2:3 LANTHANIDE(III) CITRATES

The synthesis and characterization of lanthanide(III) citrates with stoichiometries 1:1 and 2:3; [LnL center dot xH(2)O] and [Ln(2)(LH)(3)center dot 2H(2)O], Ln=La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm and Eu are reported. L stands for (C6O7H5)(3-) and LH for (C6O7H6)(2-). Infrared absorption spectra of both series evidence coordination of carboxylate groups through symmetric bridges or chelation. X-ray powder patterns show the amorphous character of [LnL center dot xH(2)O]. The compounds [Ln(2)LH(3)center dot 2H(2)O] are crystalline and isomorphous. Emission spectra of Eu compounds suggest C-2v symmetry for the coordination polyhedron of [LnL center dot xH(2)O] and C-4v for [Ln(2)(LH)(3)center dot 2H(2)O]. Thermal analyses (TG-DTG-DTA) were carried out for both series. The thermal analysis patterns of the two series are quite different and both fit in a 4-step model of thermal decomposition, with lanthanide oxides as final products.

Pedal : identification of models for duodenal administration of levodopa

Backgound and aims: The main purpose of the PEDAL study is to identify and estimate sample individual pharmacokinetic- pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models for duodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) that can be used for in numero simulation of treatment strategies. Other objectives are to study the absorption of Duodopa® and to form a basis for power calculation for a future larger study. PK/PD based on oral levodopa is problematic because of irregular gastric emptying. Preliminary work with data from [Gundert-Remy U et al. Eur J Clin Pharmacol 1983;25:69-72] suggested that levodopa infusion pharmacokinetics can be described by a two-compartment model. Background research led to a hypothesis for an effect model incorporating concentration-unrelated fluctuations, more complex than standard E-max models. Methods: PEDAL involved a few patients already on Duodopa®. A bolus dose (normal morning dose plus 50%) was given after a washout during night. Data collection continued until the clinical effect was back at baseline. The procedure was repeated on two non-consecutive days per patient. The following data were collected in 5 to 15 minutes intervals: i) Accelerometer data. ii) Three e-diary questions about ability to walk, feelings of “off” and “dyskinesia”. iii) Clinical assessment of motor function by a physician. iv) Plasma concentrations of levodopa, carbidopa and the metabolite 3-O-methyldopa. The main effect variable will be the clinical assessment. Results: At date of abstract submission, lab analyses were currently being performed. Modelling results, simulation experiments and conclusions will be presented in our poster.

Empresas com CEO/Chairman fundador apresentam retorno superior ao mercado?

Esse trabalho mostra que o retorno das ações de empresas que possuem como CEO ou Chairman o próprio fundador da empresa supera o retorno do S&P 500 no período de 1995 a 2011. É realizada também uma análise utilizando-se o Modelo de 4 Fatores de Fama-French e o resultado obtido indica que a carteira possui um retorno anualizado em excesso ajustado pelo risco de 5,79% com alta significância estatística e econômica. O trabalho também propõe mais duas análises: uma decomposição setorial da carteira, onde se verifica que o setor de tecnologia é o que mais contribui com o resultado acumulado da carteira; e um estudo sobre o múltiplo P/E (preço sobre lucro) da carteira, que surpreende ao mostrar que o P/E da carteira é sistematicamente superior ao P/E do S&P 500 no período analisado.

Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Assessing the effects of vector control on dengue transmission

The dengue virus is an arbovirus transmitted to humans through mosquito Aedes aegypti. To describe the dynamics of dengue disease within these two populations we develop a compartment model taking into account chemical controls and mechanical control applied on the mosquitoes, which are the currently available controlling mechanisms to prevent dengue disease. To mimic seasonal variations, some parameters of the model are allowed to depend on time in order to divide a calendar year in favorable and unfavorable periods regarded to the development of vector population. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Controlling the Eccentricity of Polar Lunar Orbits with Low-Thrust Propulsion

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Pharmacokinetics of dexmedetomidine administered intravenously in isofluraneanesthetized cats

Objective-To determine the pharmacokinetics of dexmedetomidine administered as a short-duration IV infusion in isoflurane-anesthetized cats. Animals-6 healthy adult domestic female cats. Procedures-Dexmedetomidine hydrochloride was injected IV (10 μg/kg over 5 minutes [rate, 2 μg/kg/min]) in isoflurane-anesthetized cats. Blood samples were obtained immediately prior to and at 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10, 15, 30, 60, 90, 120, 240, and 480 minutes following the start of the IV infusion. Collected blood samples were transferred to tubes containing EDTA, immediately placed on ice, and then centrifuged at 3,901 X g for 10 minutes at 4°C. The plasma was harvested and stored at -20°C until analyzed. Plasma dexmedetomidine concentrations were determined by means of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Dexmedetomidine plasma concentration-time data were fitted to compartmental models. Results-A 2-compartment model with input in and elimination from the central compartment best described the disposition of dexmedetomidine administered via short-duration IV infusion in isoflurane-anesthetized cats. Weighted mean ± SEM apparent volume of distribution of the central compartment and apparent volume of distribution at steady-state were 402 ± 47 mL/kg and 1,701 ± 200 mL/kg, respectively; clearance and terminal half-life (harmonic mean ± jackknife pseudo-SD) were 6.3 ± 2.8 mL/min/kg and 198 ± 75 minutes, respectively. The area under the plasma concentration curve and maximal plasma concentration were 1,061 ± 292 min·ng/mL and 17.6 ± 1.8 ng/mL, respectively. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Disposition of dexmedetomidine administered via short-duration IV infusion in isoflurane-anesthetized cats was characterized by a moderate clearance and a long terminal half-life.

Delineamentos ótimos para experimentos farmacocinéticos

Pós-graduação em Biometria - IBB

Equações de Painlevé mistas e modelo PIII-PV simétrico

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Soluções numéricas de Equações Diferenciais Fracionária e Ordinária para o cálculo da distribuição da concentração em um sistema de compartimento

The purpose of this work was the study of numerical methods for differential equations of fractional order and ordinary. These methods were applied to the problem of calculating the distribution of the concentration of a given substance over time in a given physical system. The two compartment model was used for representation of this system. Comparison between numerical solutions obtained were performed and, in particular, also compared with the analytical solution of this problem. Finally, estimates for the error between the solutions were calculated

Computer graphics applied to anatomy: a study of two bio-cad modeling methods on finite element analysis of human edentulous hemi-mandible

Modeling is a step to perform a finite element analysis. Different methods of model construction are reported in literature, as the Bio-CAD modeling. The purpose of this study was to perform a model evaluation and application using two methods of Bio-CAD modeling from human edentulous hemi-mandible on the finite element analysis. From CT scans of dried human skull was reconstructed a stereolithographic model. Two methods of modeling were performed: STL conversion approach (Model 1) associated to STL simplification and reverse engineering approach (Model 2). For finite element analysis was used the action of lateral pterygoid muscle as loading condition to assess total displacement (D), equivalent von-Mises stress (VM) and maximum principal stress (MP). Two models presented differences on the geometry regarding surface number (1834 (model 1); 282 (model 2)). Were observed differences in finite element mesh regarding element number (30428 nodes/16683 elements (model 1); 15801 nodes/8410 elements (model 2). D, VM and MP stress areas presented similar distribution in two models. The values were different regarding maximum and minimum values of D (ranging 0-0.511 mm (model 1) and 0-0.544 mm (model 2), VM stress (6.36E-04-11.4 MPa (model 1) and 2.15E-04-14.7 MPa (model 2) and MP stress (-1.43-9.14 MPa (model 1) and -1.2-11.6 MPa (model 2). From two methods of Bio-CAD modeling, the reverse engineering presented better anatomical representation compared to the STL conversion approach. The models presented differences in the finite element mesh, total displacement and stress distribution.

Modellazione multibody di veicoli ferroviari: sviluppo ed implementazione di modelli innovativi per l'analisi del contatto ruota - rotaia

The wheel - rail contact analysis plays a fundamental role in the multibody modeling of railway vehicles. A good contact model must provide an accurate description of the global contact phenomena (contact forces and torques, number and position of the contact points) and of the local contact phenomena (position and shape of the contact patch, stresses and displacements). The model has also to assure high numerical efficiency (in order to be implemented directly online within multibody models) and a good compatibility with commercial multibody software (Simpack Rail, Adams Rail). The wheel - rail contact problem has been discussed by several authors and many models can be found in the literature. The contact models can be subdivided into two different categories: the global models and the local (or differential) models. Currently, as regards the global models, the main approaches to the problem are the so - called rigid contact formulation and the semi – elastic contact description. The rigid approach considers the wheel and the rail as rigid bodies. The contact is imposed by means of constraint equations and the contact points are detected during the dynamic simulation by solving the nonlinear algebraic differential equations associated to the constrained multibody system. Indentation between the bodies is not permitted and the normal contact forces are calculated through the Lagrange multipliers. Finally the Hertz’s and the Kalker’s theories allow to evaluate the shape of the contact patch and the tangential forces respectively. Also the semi - elastic approach considers the wheel and the rail as rigid bodies. However in this case no kinematic constraints are imposed and the indentation between the bodies is permitted. The contact points are detected by means of approximated procedures (based on look - up tables and simplifying hypotheses on the problem geometry). The normal contact forces are calculated as a function of the indentation while, as in the rigid approach, the Hertz’s and the Kalker’s theories allow to evaluate the shape of the contact patch and the tangential forces. Both the described multibody approaches are computationally very efficient but their generality and accuracy turn out to be often insufficient because the physical hypotheses behind these theories are too restrictive and, in many circumstances, unverified. In order to obtain a complete description of the contact phenomena, local (or differential) contact models are needed. In other words wheel and rail have to be considered elastic bodies governed by the Navier’s equations and the contact has to be described by suitable analytical contact conditions. The contact between elastic bodies has been widely studied in literature both in the general case and in the rolling case. Many procedures based on variational inequalities, FEM techniques and convex optimization have been developed. This kind of approach assures high generality and accuracy but still needs very large computational costs and memory consumption. Due to the high computational load and memory consumption, referring to the current state of the art, the integration between multibody and differential modeling is almost absent in literature especially in the railway field. However this integration is very important because only the differential modeling allows an accurate analysis of the contact problem (in terms of contact forces and torques, position and shape of the contact patch, stresses and displacements) while the multibody modeling is the standard in the study of the railway dynamics. In this thesis some innovative wheel – rail contact models developed during the Ph. D. activity will be described. Concerning the global models, two new models belonging to the semi – elastic approach will be presented; the models satisfy the following specifics: 1) the models have to be 3D and to consider all the six relative degrees of freedom between wheel and rail 2) the models have to consider generic railway tracks and generic wheel and rail profiles 3) the models have to assure a general and accurate handling of the multiple contact without simplifying hypotheses on the problem geometry; in particular the models have to evaluate the number and the position of the contact points and, for each point, the contact forces and torques 4) the models have to be implementable directly online within the multibody models without look - up tables 5) the models have to assure computation times comparable with those of commercial multibody software (Simpack Rail, Adams Rail) and compatible with RT and HIL applications 6) the models have to be compatible with commercial multibody software (Simpack Rail, Adams Rail). The most innovative aspect of the new global contact models regards the detection of the contact points. In particular both the models aim to reduce the algebraic problem dimension by means of suitable analytical techniques. This kind of reduction allows to obtain an high numerical efficiency that makes possible the online implementation of the new procedure and the achievement of performance comparable with those of commercial multibody software. At the same time the analytical approach assures high accuracy and generality. Concerning the local (or differential) contact models, one new model satisfying the following specifics will be presented: 1) the model has to be 3D and to consider all the six relative degrees of freedom between wheel and rail 2) the model has to consider generic railway tracks and generic wheel and rail profiles 3) the model has to assure a general and accurate handling of the multiple contact without simplifying hypotheses on the problem geometry; in particular the model has to able to calculate both the global contact variables (contact forces and torques) and the local contact variables (position and shape of the contact patch, stresses and displacements) 4) the model has to be implementable directly online within the multibody models 5) the model has to assure high numerical efficiency and a reduced memory consumption in order to achieve a good integration between multibody and differential modeling (the base for the local contact models) 6) the model has to be compatible with commercial multibody software (Simpack Rail, Adams Rail). In this case the most innovative aspects of the new local contact model regard the contact modeling (by means of suitable analytical conditions) and the implementation of the numerical algorithms needed to solve the discrete problem arising from the discretization of the original continuum problem. Moreover, during the development of the local model, the achievement of a good compromise between accuracy and efficiency turned out to be very important to obtain a good integration between multibody and differential modeling. At this point the contact models has been inserted within a 3D multibody model of a railway vehicle to obtain a complete model of the wagon. The railway vehicle chosen as benchmark is the Manchester Wagon the physical and geometrical characteristics of which are easily available in the literature. The model of the whole railway vehicle (multibody model and contact model) has been implemented in the Matlab/Simulink environment. The multibody model has been implemented in SimMechanics, a Matlab toolbox specifically designed for multibody dynamics, while, as regards the contact models, the CS – functions have been used; this particular Matlab architecture allows to efficiently connect the Matlab/Simulink and the C/C++ environment. The 3D multibody model of the same vehicle (this time equipped with a standard contact model based on the semi - elastic approach) has been then implemented also in Simpack Rail, a commercial multibody software for railway vehicles widely tested and validated. Finally numerical simulations of the vehicle dynamics have been carried out on many different railway tracks with the aim of evaluating the performances of the whole model. The comparison between the results obtained by the Matlab/ Simulink model and those obtained by the Simpack Rail model has allowed an accurate and reliable validation of the new contact models. In conclusion to this brief introduction to my Ph. D. thesis, we would like to thank Trenitalia and the Regione Toscana for the support provided during all the Ph. D. activity. Moreover we would also like to thank the INTEC GmbH, the society the develops the software Simpack Rail, with which we are currently working together to develop innovative toolboxes specifically designed for the wheel rail contact analysis.

CT perfusion image processing: analysis of liver tumors

Perfusion CT imaging of the liver has potential to improve evaluation of tumour angiogenesis. Quantitative parameters can be obtained applying mathematical models to Time Attenuation Curve (TAC). However, there are still some difficulties for an accurate quantification of perfusion parameters due, for example, to algorithms employed, to mathematical model, to patient’s weight and cardiac output and to the acquisition system. In this thesis, new parameters and alternative methodologies about liver perfusion CT are presented in order to investigate the cause of variability of this technique. Firstly analysis were made to assess the variability related to the mathematical model used to compute arterial Blood Flow (BFa) values. Results were obtained implementing algorithms based on “ maximum slope method” and “Dual input one compartment model” . Statistical analysis on simulated data demonstrated that the two methods are not interchangeable. Anyway slope method is always applicable in clinical context. Then variability related to TAC processing in the application of slope method is analyzed. Results compared with manual selection allow to identify the best automatic algorithm to compute BFa. The consistency of a Standardized Perfusion Index (SPV) was evaluated and a simplified calibration procedure was proposed. At the end the quantitative value of perfusion map was analyzed. ROI approach and map approach provide related values of BFa and this means that pixel by pixel algorithm give reliable quantitative results. Also in pixel by pixel approach slope method give better results. In conclusion the development of new automatic algorithms for a consistent computation of BFa and the analysis and definition of simplified technique to compute SPV parameter, represent an improvement in the field of liver perfusion CT analysis.

The relationship between eating behavior and psychological distress among overweight and obese people: is there a role for mindfulness?

This research based on 3 indipendent studies, sought to explore the nature of the relationship between overweight/obesity, eating behaviors and psychological distress; the construct of Mindful eating trough the validation of the Italian adaptation of the Mindful Eating Questionnaire (MEQ); the role of mindfulnessand mindful eating as respectively potential mediator and moderator between overeating behavior (binge eating and emotional overeating) and negative outcomes (psychological distress, body dissatisfaction). All the samples were divided in normal weight, overweight and obese according to BMI categories. STUDY1: In a sample of 691 subjects (69.6% female, mean aged 39.26 years) was found that BMI was not associated with psychological distress, whereas binge eating increases the psychopathological level. BMI and male gender represent negative predictors of psychological distress, but certain types of overeating (i.e., NES/grazing, overeating during or out of meals, and guilt/restraint) result as positive predictors.. STUDY 2 : A sample of 1067 subjects (61.4% female, mean aged 34 years) was analized. The Italian MEQ resulted in a 26-item 4-factor model measuring Disinhibition, Awareness, Distraction, and Emotional response. Internal consistency and test-retest reliability were acceptable MEQ correlated positively with mindfulness (FMI) and it was associated with sociodemographic variables, BMI, meditation. type of exercise and diet. STUDY 3, based on a sample of 502 subjects (68.8% female, mean aged 39.42 years) showed that MEQ and FMI negatively correlated with BES, EOQ, SCL-90-R, and BIAQ. Obese people showed lower level of mindful eating and higher levels of binge eating, emotional overeating, and body dissatisfaction, compared to the other groups Mindfulness resulted to partially mediates the relationship between a) binge eating and psychological distress, b) emotional overeating and psychological distress, c) binge eating and mental well-being, d) emotional overeating and menal well-being. Mindful eating was a moderator only in the relationship between emotional overeating and body dissatisfaction.