Managing threatened species: the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviour-based models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley's declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

The role of transgenic crops for sustainable development

The concept of sustainable development forms the basis for a wide variety of international and national policy making. World population continues to expand at about 80 M people per year, while the demand for natural resources continues to escalate. Important policies, treaties and goals underpin the notion of sustainable development. In this paper, we discuss and evaluate a range of scientific literature pertaining to the use of transgenic crops in meeting sustainable development goals. It is concluded that a considerable body of evidence has accrued since the first commercial growing of transgenic crops, which suggests that they can contribute in all three traditional pillars of sustainability, i.e. economically, environmentally and socially. Management of herbicide-tolerant and insect-resistant transgenic crops to minimize the risk of weeds and pests developing resistance is discussed, together with the associated concern about the risk of loss of biodiversity. As the world population continues to rise, the evidence reviewed here suggests it would be unwise to ignore transgenic crops as one of the tools that can help meet aspirations for increasingly sustainable global development.

The role of insurance in social protection

Includes bibliography

Population, resources, environment, development interrelationships in the United Nations: in search of a focus

Includes bibliography

Population ageing in the Caribbean: An inventory of policies, programmes and future challenges

���We must be fully aware that while the developed countries became rich before they became old, the developing countries will become old before they become rich���. This statement made by Gro Harlem Brundtland, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General, at the World Assembly on Ageing in 2002 in Madrid, reflects the challenges that the developing world is facing in the twentieth century. Population ageing is a global phenomenon, which is having and will have major implications on all aspects of human life in every society. This process is enduring and irreversible, as observed from differing patterns and distinct paces in various regions and countries all over the world. The United Nations has undertaken various efforts to repeatedly draw governments��� attention to the growing demand for answers to these encompassing and profound demographic changes. Various initiatives on the global as well as on the regional and subregional level have been undertaken to highlight the pressing need for concerted action. Of importance in this regard are the numerous agreements reached at the global conferences on social development, population and women orchestrated by the United Nations in the 1990s, which all refer to ageing as an issue of particular concern. The year 1999 was proclaimed by the General Assembly1 of the United Nations as the Year of Older Persons to recognize ageing as one of the major achievements but, at the same time, as one of the major challenges all populations have to cope with in the twentieth century. This continuous call for action culminated in the Second World Assembly on Ageing, which was held in Madrid 2002, where governments agreed to the implementation of a global action plan. This new Plan of Action focuses both on political priorities such as improvements in living conditions of older persons, combating poverty, social inclusion, individual self-fulfilment, human rights and gender equality. To an increasing degree attention is also devoted to such holistic and overarching themes as intergenerational solidarity, employment, social security, health and well-being. Mandated by the Second World Assembly on Ageing, the Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC/CELADE) has convened the Regional Intergovernmental Conference on Ageing in November 2003 in Santiago, where a regional strategy for the implementation (ECLAC, 2003b) of the commitments reached in Madrid has been adopted. Further, a background document (ECLAC 2003a) on the situation of the elderly in the Latin American and Caribbean region, of which this document is a substantive part, has been presented to the meeting. Participating government officials formally committed themselves to work on a national follow-up strategy and to report on the progress made in the implementation of their commitments to the Ad hoc Committee on Population and Development to be convened in 2004.

Desenvolvimento e avalia����o de indicadores de efici��ncia hidra��lica e energ��tica para sistemas de abastecimento de ��gua como ferramenta de suporte �� tomada de decis��es

Coordena����o de Aperfei��oamento de Pessoal de N��vel Superior (CAPES)

An��lise sazonal e espacial da precipita����o pluvial na bacia hidrogr��fica do rio Iva��, Paran��

Climate variability and therefore the rainfall is often cited today, in times to speak of "global change", "global warming", "anthropogenic disasters," among other terms related to climate issues, which may cause floods and disasters that affect entire regions. In this sense, the seasonal rainfall and its extremes in the basin of Iva�� river, which has a drainage area of approximately 36 000 km2, covering a length of 680 km, located in the State of Paran�� between coordinates 22 �� 54'S 25 �� 44'S and 55 44'W to 52 �� 42'W, were analyzed. Influence of rainfall for the man occupation is undeniably important, not less important is the role that this issue poses to the climate abiotic and biotic environment, because the dynamic relations between the fauna and flora is directly related to the availability of water in system (in this case, rain). The methodological procedures used during the research focused on statistical analysis of rainfall series daily, monthly and yearly, provided by the Superintendence of Water Resources Development and Environmental Protection Agency - SUDERHSA, an agency linked to the government of Parana. The analysis period chosen was from 1975 to 2005, with 38 stations for data collection, distributed evenly across the search area. The standard rainfall in the basin is explained mainly by convective processes in the summer (wet season) and front system causing more homogeneous rainfall over the basin (dry season). What is well marked is the occurrence of maximum rainfall in the years 1983 and 1997 (El Ni��o) and minimal in the years 1977, 1985 and 1988 (La Ni��a). Finally, although the study area have undergone a significant change in your landscape for over thirty years, this study indicates no significant interference in rainfall.

Diagn��stico e avalia����o ambiental das nascentes da Serra dos Mat��es, munic��pio de Pedro II, Piau��

P��s-gradua����o em Geografia - IGCE

Diagn��stico e avalia����o ambiental das nascentes da Serra dos Mat��es, munic��pio de Pedro II, Piau��

P��s-gradua����o em Geografia - IGCE

Modellazione bidimensionale della propagazione nell'entroterra della inondazione da mare negli scenari dei previsti cambiamenti climatici

Le ricerche di carattere eustatico, mareografico, climatico, archeologico e geocronologico, sviluppatesi soprattutto nell���ultimo ventennio, hanno messo in evidenza che gran parte delle piane costiere italiane risulta soggetta al rischio di allagamento per ingressione marina dovuta alla risalita relativa del livello medio del mare. Tale rischio �� la conseguenza dell���interazione tra la presenza di elementi antropici e fenomeni di diversa natura, spesso difficilmente discriminabili e quantificabili, caratterizzati da magnitudo e velocit�� molto diverse tra loro. Tra le cause preponderanti che determinano l���ingressione marina possono essere individuati alcuni fenomeni naturali, climatici e geologici, i quali risultano fortemente influenzati dalle attivit�� umane soprattutto a partire dal XX secolo. Tra questi si individuano: - la risalita del livello del mare, principalmente come conseguenza del superamento dell���ultimo acme glaciale e dello scioglimento delle grandi calotte continentali; - la subsidenza. Vaste porzioni delle piane costiere italiane risultano soggette a fenomeni di subsidenza. In certe zone questa assume proporzioni notevoli: per la fascia costiera emiliano-romagnola si registrano ratei compresi tra 1 e 3 cm/anno. Tale subsidenza �� spesso il risultato della sovrapposizione tra fenomeni naturali (neotettonica, costipamento di sedimenti, ecc.) e fenomeni indotti dall���uomo (emungimenti delle falde idriche, sfruttamento di giacimenti metaniferi, escavazione di materiali per l���edilizia, ecc.); - terreni ad elevato contenuto organico: la presenza di depositi fortemente costipabili pu�� causare la depressione del piano di campagna come conseguenza di abbassamenti del livello della falda superficiale (per drenaggi, opere di bonifica, emungimenti), dello sviluppo dei processi di ossidazione e decomposizione nei terreni stessi, del costipamento di questi sotto il proprio peso, della carenza di nuovi apporti solidi conseguente alla diminuita frequenza delle esondazioni dei corsi d���acqua; - morfologia: tra i fattori di rischio rientra l���assetto morfologico della piana e, in particolare il tipo di costa (lidi, spiagge, cordoni dunari in smantellamento, ecc. ), la presenza di aree depresse o comunque vicine al livello del mare (fino a 1-2 m s.l.m.), le caratteristiche dei fondali antistanti (batimetria, profilo trasversale, granulometria dei sedimenti, barre sommerse, assenza di barriere biologiche, ecc.); - stato della linea di costa in termini di processi erosivi dovuti ad attivit�� umane (urbanizzazione del litorale, prelievo inerti, costruzione di barriere, ecc.) o alle dinamiche idro-sedimentarie naturali cui risulta soggetta (correnti litoranee, apporti di materiale, ecc. ). Scopo del presente studio �� quello di valutare la probabilit�� di ingressione del mare nel tratto costiero emiliano-romagnolo del Lido delle Nazioni, la velocit�� di propagazione del fronte d���onda, facendo riferimento allo schema idraulico del crollo di una diga su letto asciutto (problema di Riemann) basato sul metodo delle caratteristiche, e di modellare la propagazione dell���inondazione nell���entroterra, conseguente all���innalzamento del medio mare . Per simulare tale processo �� stato utilizzato il complesso codice di calcolo bidimensionale Mike 21. La fase iniziale di tale lavoro ha comportato la raccolta ed elaborazione mediante sistema Arcgis dei dati LIDAR ed idrografici multibeam , grazie ai quali si �� provveduto a ricostruire la topo-batimetria di dettaglio della zona esaminata. Nel primo capitolo �� stato sviluppato il problema del cambiamento climatico globale in atto e della conseguente variazione del livello marino che, secondo quanto riportato dall���IPCC nel rapporto del 2007, dovrebbe aumentare al 2100 mediamente tra i 28 ed i 43 cm. Nel secondo e terzo capitolo �� stata effettuata un���analisi bibliografica delle metodologie per la modellazione della propagazione delle onde a fronte ripido con particolare attenzione ai fenomeni di breaching delle difese rigide ed ambientali. Sono state studiate le fenomenologie che possono inficiare la stabilit�� dei rilevati arginali, realizzati sia in corrispondenza dei corsi d���acqua, sia in corrispondenza del mare, a discapito della protezione idraulica del territorio ovvero dell���incolumit�� fisica dell���uomo e dei territori in cui esso vive e produce. In un rilevato arginale, quale che sia la causa innescante la formazione di breccia, la generazione di un���onda di piena conseguente la rottura �� sempre determinata da un���azione erosiva (seepage o overtopping) esercitata dall���acqua sui materiali sciolti costituenti il corpo del rilevato. Perci�� gran parte dello studio in materia di brecce arginali �� incentrato sulla ricostruzione di siffatti eventi di rottura. Nel quarto capitolo �� stata calcolata la probabilit��, in 5 anni, di avere un allagamento nella zona di interesse e la velocit�� di propagazione del fronte d���onda. Inoltre �� stata effettuata un���analisi delle condizioni meteo marine attuali (clima ondoso, livelli del mare e correnti) al largo della costa emiliano-romagnola, le cui problematiche e linee di intervento per la difesa sono descritte nel quinto capitolo, con particolare riferimento alla costa ferrarese, oggetto negli ultimi anni di continui interventi antropici. Introdotto il sistema Gis e le sue caratteristiche, si �� passati a descrivere le varie fasi che hanno permesso di avere in output il file delle coordinate x, y, z dei punti significativi della costa, indispensabili al fine della simulazione Mike 21, le cui propriet�� sono sviluppate nel sesto capitolo.

Le caratteristiche delle modalit�� organizzative della medicina territoriale nella gestione della patologia cronica. Il caso di studio dell���azienda Ausl di Bologna

L���aumento dei costi in sanit��, l���aumentata prevalenza delle patologie croniche, le disuguaglianze attuali, evidenziano la domanda crescente di una popolazione fragile che richiede una risposta globale ai bisogni della persona nel suo insieme, attraverso la costruzione di un sistema sanitario integrato che ne garantisca una presa in carico efficace. Riuscire a gestire le patologie croniche in modo appropriato �� la sfida a cui sono chiamati i professionisti socio-sanitari; ma quali sono gli elementi per riuscirci? Le evidenze scientifiche dimostrano che �� fondamentale l���integrazione tra i professionisti e lo sviluppo dei Percorsi Diagnostici Terapeutici Assistenziali (PDTA). In quest���ottica, in Italia e in particolare in Emilia-Romagna e nell���Azienda USL di Bologna si sono succeduti, e ancora si stanno evolvendo, diversi modelli di organizzazione per migliorare la gestione appropriata delle patologie croniche e l���aderenza alle linee guida e/o ai PDTA. Il ruolo del medico di medicina generale (MMG) �� ancora fondamentale e il suo contributo integrato a quello degli gli altri professionisti coinvolti sono imprescindibili per una buona gestione e presa in carico del paziente cronico. Per questo motivo, l���Azienda USL di Bologna ha sviluppato e implementato una politica strategica aziendale volta a disegnare i PDTA e incoraggiato la medicina generale a lavorare sempre di pi�� in gruppo, rispetto al modello del singolo medico. Lo studio ha individuato nelle malattie cardiovascolari, che rimangono la causa principale di morte e morbilit��, il suo focus prendendo in esame, in particolare,lo scompenso cardiaco e il post-IMA. L���obiettivo �� verificare se e quanto il modello organizzativo, le caratteristiche del medico e del paziente influiscono sul buon management delle patologie croniche in esame valutando la buona adesione alla terapia farmacologica raccomandata dalle linee guida e/o PDTA dello scompenso cardiaco e post-IMA.

ELECTRICITY GENERATION MODELING AND PHOTOVOLTAIC FORECASTS IN CHINA

With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979-2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.

Desaf��os para el neoliberalismo, ordenamiento territorial y planificaci��n estrat��gica

Luego de una d��cada en la cual la planificaci��n no es tenida en cuenta, donde todo se deja librado al juego de oferta y demanda, a la l��gica concentradora de la econom��a, comienza a reclamarse su participaci��n como un paliativo frente a las consecuencias adversas producidas: desequilibrios espaciales, desempleo, pobreza, marginaci��n, contaminaci��n, generaci��n de deseconom��as, etc., problem��ticas que reclaman en general un mejoramiento de la calidad de vida de la poblaci��n. En este marco no s��lo se profundiza la preocupaci��n por las cuestiones socioecon��micas y ambientales, sino por la competitividad y b��squeda de eficiencia en el uso de los recursos y las ventajas de que dispone cada territorio, hechos que encuentran su explicaci��n en la necesidad de no quedar marginados frente a los procesos de cooperaci��n y asociaci��n propios de un mundo cada vez m��s interdependiente y m��s integrado debido al avance tecnol��gico de los medios de comunicaci��n.

Upper Maestrichtian to Eocene benthic foraminifera in ODP Leg 121 holes

Late Maestrichtian to late Eocene bathyal benthic foraminiferal faunas at Sites 752,753, and 754 on Broken Ridge in the eastern Indian Ocean were analyzed as to their stratigraphic distribution of species to clarify the relation between faunal turnovers and paleoceanographic changes. Based on Q-mode factor analysis, eight varimax assemblages were distinguished: the Stensioina beccariiformis assemblage in the upper Maestrichtian to upper Paleocene; the Cibicidoides hyphalus assemblage in the upper Maestrichtian; the Cibicidoides cf. pseudoperlucidus assemblage in the upper Paleocene; the Anomalinoides capitatusldanicus assemblage in the uppermost Paleocene to lower Eocene; the Cibicidoides subspiratus assemblage in the lower Eocene; the Nuttallides truempyi assemblage in the lower and middle Eocene; the Osangularia sp. 1 - Hanzawaia ammophila assemblage in the upper Eocene; and the Lenticulina spp. assemblage in the uppermost Eocene, Oligocene, and lower Miocene. The presence of the Osangularia sp. 1 - Hanzawaia ammophila assemblage is related to the shallowing episode on Broken Ridge (upper bathyal), as a result of the rifting event that occurred in the middle Eocene. The most distinct faunal change (the disappearance of about 37% of the species) occurred between the S. beccariiformis assemblage and the A. capitatusldanicus assemblage, at the end of the upper Paleocene. A. capitatusldanicus, Lenticulina spp., and varied forms of Cibicidoides replaced the Velasco-type fauna at this time. The timing of this event is well correlated with the known age at South Atlantic sites (Thomas, 1990 doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.113.123.1990; Kennett and Stott, 1990 doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.113.188.1990; Katz and Miller, 1990 doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.114.147.1991). The primary cause of the extinction of the Stensioina beccariiformis assemblage is elusive, but may have resulted from the cessation of deep-water formation in the Antarctic (Katz and Miller, 1990), and subsequent arrival of warm saline deep water (Thomas, 1990; Kennett and Stott, 1990). Another possibility may be a weakened influence of high-salinity water formed at the low latitudes such as the Tethys Sea. The extinction event corresponds to the change from higher delta13C values in benthic foraminifers to lower ones. An interpretation of delta13C values is that the eastern Indian deep water, characterized by young and nutrient-depleted water, became old water which was devoid of a supply of new water during the latest Paleocene to early Eocene. Prior to this benthic event, signals of related faunal change were detected in the following short periods: early and late Paleocene, near the boundary of nannofossil Zone CP4, and Zone CP5 of the late Paleocene at Site 752. Among common taxa in the upper Maestrichtian, only seven species disappeared or became extinct at the Cretaceous/ Tertiary boundary at Site 752. The benthic foraminiferal population did not change for up to 2 m above the boundary, in contrast to the rapid decrease of the plankt onic foraminiferal population at the boundary. A decrease in the number of benthic foraminifers occurs after that level, corresponding to an interval of decreased numbers of planktonic foraminifers and higher abundance of volcanic ash. Reduced species diversity (H') suggests a secondary effect attributable to the dissolution of foraminiferal tests. The different responses of planktonic and benthic foraminifers to the event just above the boundary suggest that the Cretaceous/Tertiary event was a surface event as also suggested by Thomas (1990). In addition, a positive shift of delta13C in benthic foraminifers after the event indicates nutrient-depleted bottom water at Site 752.

Service needs forecasting: an approach for the automotive industry using analogies with medical ER management models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards ���the luxury universe��� whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, car makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the ���patient��� under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper establishes a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER.