Ultra-hypofractionated stereotactic radiotherapy for prostate cancer in 5 fractions: current evidences and our clinical experience

AIMS: The present is a retrospective evaluation of acute genito-urinary (GU) and gastro-intestinal (GI) toxicity, in addition to biochemical recurrence rate in 57 prostate cancer patients treated at our Institution with ultra-hypofractionated RT (UHRT) schedule. METHODS: From January 2021 to December 2022 we have treated 57 patients with prostate cancer, using an UHRT scheme of 5-fractions every other day for a total dose delivered of 36.25 Gy, according to the PACE-B trial treatment schedule. Good urinary function, assessed by International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), were required. The simulation CT scans were acquired in supine position and fused with MRI for CTVs definition for every patient. Each treatment was performed by Accuray's TomoTherapy with daily IGRT. The evaluation of the set-up was very restrictive before daily treatment delivery. RESULTS: According to RTOG toxicity scale, the acute GU toxicity at 3 months from RT, GU toxicity was G0 for 30 patients (52.6%), G1 for 26 (45.6%) and G2 for one only (1.75%); rectal toxicity was G0 for 56 patients (98.25%) and G1 for one only (1.75%). The median follow-up (FU) was 9 months (2-24 months). In the following FU months, we observed progressively lower urinary and rectal toxicity, except for one patient who showed G2 GU toxicity at 12 months. All but one patient had a progressive PSA value decrease. CONCLUSIONS: In our experience, UHRT appears to be safe and well tolerated even without the use of rectal spacer devices. A longer FU is necessary to evaluate late toxicity and disease control rate.

Time trials on second-order and variable-learning-rate algorithms

The performance of seven minimization algorithms are compared on five neural network problems. These include a variable-step-size algorithm, conjugate gradient, and several methods with explicit analytic or numerical approximations to the Hessian.

Automated supervised classification of variable stars in the CoRoT programme Method and application to the first four exoplanet fields

Aims. In this work, we describe the pipeline for the fast supervised classification of light curves observed by the CoRoT exoplanet CCDs. We present the classification results obtained for the first four measured fields, which represent a one-year in-orbit operation. Methods. The basis of the adopted supervised classification methodology has been described in detail in a previous paper, as is its application to the OGLE database. Here, we present the modifications of the algorithms and of the training set to optimize the performance when applied to the CoRoT data. Results. Classification results are presented for the observed fields IRa01, SRc01, LRc01, and LRa01 of the CoRoT mission. Statistics on the number of variables and the number of objects per class are given and typical light curves of high-probability candidates are shown. We also report on new stellar variability types discovered in the CoRoT data. The full classification results are publicly available.

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

Experimental investigation of transient natural convection cooling of high prandtl number fluid with variable viscosity

Report for the scientific sojourn at the James Cook University, Australia, between June to December 2007. Free convection in enclosed spaces is found widely in natural and industrial systems. It is a topic of primary interest because in many systems it provides the largest resistance to the heat transfer in comparison with other heat transfer modes. In such systems the convection is driven by a density gradient within the fluid, which, usually, is produced by a temperature difference between the fluid and surrounding walls. In the oil industry, the oil, which has High Prandtl, usually is stored and transported in large tanks at temperatures high enough to keep its viscosity and, thus the pumping requirements, to a reasonable level. A temperature difference between the fluid and the walls of the container may give rise to the unsteady buoyancy force and hence the unsteady natural convection. In the initial period of cooling the natural convection regime dominates over the conduction contribution. As the oil cools down it typically becomes more viscous and this increase of viscosity inhibits the convection. At this point the oil viscosity becomes very large and unloading of the tank becomes very difficult. For this reason it is of primary interest to be able to predict the cooling rate of the oil. The general objective of this work is to develop and validate a simulation tool able to predict the cooling rates of high Prandtl fluid considering the variable viscosity effects.

Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

What Belongs Where? Variable Selection for Zero-Inflated Count Models with an Application to the Demand for Health Care

This paper develops stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) for zero-inflated count models which are commonly used in health economics. This allows for either model averaging or model selection in situations with many potential regressors. The proposed techniques are applied to a data set from Germany considering the demand for health care. A package for the free statistical software environment R is provided.

Growth Rate Estimation in the presence of Unit Roots

This study addresses the issue of the presence of a unit root on the growth rate estimation by the least-squares approach. We argue that when the log of a variable contains a unit root, i.e., it is not stationary then the growth rate estimate from the log-linear trend model is not a valid representation of the actual growth of the series. In fact, under such a situation, we show that the growth of the series is the cumulative impact of a stochastic process. As such the growth estimate from such a model is just a spurious representation of the actual growth of the series, which we refer to as a “pseudo growth rate”. Hence such an estimate should be interpreted with caution. On the other hand, we highlight that the statistical representation of a series as containing a unit root is not easy to separate from an alternative description which represents the series as fundamentally deterministic (no unit root) but containing a structural break. In search of a way around this, our study presents a survey of both the theoretical and empirical literature on unit root tests that takes into account possible structural breaks. We show that when a series is trendstationary with breaks, it is possible to use the log-linear trend model to obtain well defined estimates of growth rates for sub-periods which are valid representations of the actual growth of the series. Finally, to highlight the above issues, we carry out an empirical application whereby we estimate meaningful growth rates of real wages per worker for 51 industries from the organised manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973-2003, which are not only unbiased but also asymptotically efficient. We use these growth rate estimates to highlight the evolving inter-industry wage structure in India.

Prospective universal application of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat genotyping to characterize Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates for fast identification of clustered and orphan cases.

The use of molecular tools for genotyping Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates in epidemiological surveys in order to identify clustered and orphan strains requires faster response times than those offered by the reference method, IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) genotyping. A method based on PCR, the mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) genotyping technique, is an option for fast fingerprinting of M. tuberculosis, although precise evaluations of correlation between MIRU-VNTR and RFLP findings in population-based studies in different contexts are required before the methods are switched. In this study, we evaluated MIRU-VNTR genotyping (with a set of 15 loci [MIRU-15]) in parallel to RFLP genotyping in a 39-month universal population-based study in a challenging setting with a high proportion of immigrants. For 81.9% (281/343) of the M. tuberculosis isolates, both RFLP and MIRU-VNTR types were obtained. The percentages of clustered cases were 39.9% (112/281) and 43.1% (121/281) for RFLP and MIRU-15 analyses, and the numbers of clusters identified were 42 and 45, respectively. For 85.4% of the cases, the RFLP and MIRU-15 results were concordant, identifying the same cases as clustered and orphan (kappa, 0.7). However, for the remaining 14.6% of the cases, discrepancies were observed: 16 of the cases clustered by RFLP analysis were identified as orphan by MIRU-15 analysis, and 25 cases identified as orphan by RFLP analysis were clustered by MIRU-15 analysis. When discrepant cases showing subtle genotypic differences were tolerated, the discrepancies fell from 14.6% to 8.6%. Epidemiological links were found for 83.8% of the cases clustered by both RFLP and MIRU-15 analyses, whereas for the cases clustered by RFLP or MIRU-VNTR analysis alone, links were identified for only 30.8% or 38.9% of the cases, respectively. The latter group of cases mainly comprised isolates that could also have been clustered, if subtle genotypic differences had been tolerated. MIRU-15 genotyping seems to be a good alternative to RFLP genotyping for real-time interventional schemes. The correlation between MIRU-15 and IS6110 RFLP findings was reasonable, although some uncertainties as to the assignation of clusters by MIRU-15 analysis were identified.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques

Application of Information Statistical Theory to the Description of the Effect of Heat Conduction on the Chemical Reaction Rate in Gases

The effect of the heat flux on the rate of chemical reaction in dilute gases is shown to be important for reactions characterized by high activation energies and in the presence of very large temperature gradients. This effect, obtained from the second-order terms in the distribution function (similar to those obtained in the Burnett approximation to the solution of the Boltzmann equation), is derived on the basis of information theory. It is shown that the analytical results describing the effect are simpler if the kinetic definition for the nonequilibrium temperature is introduced than if the thermodynamic definition is introduced. The numerical results are nearly the same for both definitions

Piecemeal Oligopoly, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Trade Policy.

Este artículo analiza el efecto sistemático de la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio, cuando un gobierno local debe evaluar políticas comerciales estratégicas lineales y cuadráticas. Este ejercicio se realiza para modelos de mercado Cournot y Bertran. El modelo prueba que tanto el esquema lineal como el cuadrático tienen el mismo efecto sobre el bienestar social de los países, y que la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio domestica lleva a los gobiernos a reducir los subsidios a las exportaciones o bajan los impuestos a las exportaciones, de acuerdo a la variable estratégica elegida por las firmas. La tasa de cambio extranjera tiene diferentes efectos dependiendo de si las firmas producen bajos rendimientos a escalas constantes o decrecientes.